Let’s start with the economic situation.
The Euro Crisis is by no means over. In fact, we’ve yet to get the details of the mega-Euro bailout that is supposedly going to solve all of Europe’s problems (it won’t but that’s the market’s view for now). Meanwhile Spain and Italy are both coming unraveled in a big way. With GDPs of $1.46 trillion and $2.11 trillion respectively, there is no way the ECB can bail these two out.
On the other side of the pond, the White House supposedly reached a debt deal late Sunday night. The deal involves a debt ceiling hike (no surprise) no tax increases, and $2 trillion in spending cuts over the next ten years (though Obama stressed they would not occur so as to damage the US economy).
In other words, the US Government kicked the can down the road a little further. Judging from the worsening economic data in the US (this morning’s ISM was a disaster), the can won’t be going far this time around.
Against this ugly backdrop, stocks are coming up against support at 1,275. If we take this line out, we’ve got support at 1,250 and then we’re going to 1,225 or even 1,200 in a heart beat.
Now is the time to be getting defensive. This means rotating our of more speculative growth plays and shifting into non-cyclicals. For some investors it means getting out of stocks all together.
One thing that NEEDS to be mentioned is that this time around, bad economic news is resulting in sell-offs. For the last two years, whenever bad data came out, stocks actually rallied on the belief that the Fed would have to provide more stimulus. So the fact that stocks are now tanking on bad economic data should be a major red flag that things have changed.
On that note, I full believe that we could be heading into another 2008 episode. We’re DARN close to triggering my proprietary Crash trigger. And there is no shortage of major black swans lurking in the financial system.
Indeed, global manufacturing is now at its worst levels since 2009. China is clearly heading into a hard landing while the European debt contagion is spreading to Spain and Italy in a big way.
Add to this the fact that the financial system is even more leveraged than it was in 2000 and you’ve got a recipe for financial disaster. And given that this coming crisis will entail entire countries (not just private banks) collapsing, this time around is going to be even worse than 2008.
However, this doesn’t mean that you have to lose money. In fact, Crises can be one of the best times to actually produce outsized profits as the financial herds panic and head for the exits.
And when it comes to profiting from this kind of disaster, few people on the planet have my ability to make Crises pay off.
To whit, my clients actually made money in 2008, having been warned a full three weeks in advance of the Crash to get out the market and go short.
And when the Euro Crisis of 2010 rolled around, my Private Wealth Advisory portfolio outperformed the market by 15%.
I’ve recently alerted subscribers of Private Wealth Advisory to six trades that will all explode when the markets crumble. In fact, while the markets have been a sea of red lately these positions have EXPLODED higher.
And we’re just getting started.
So if you’ve yet to take steps to prepare your portfolio for a market collapse… and would like clear “buy” and “sell” alerts on which trades to make and when… you NEED to take out a “trial” subscription to my Private Wealth Advisory newsletter.
Once you do, you’ll immediately join my elite group of subscribers including strategists at Wells Fargo, Merrill Lynch, Royal Bank of Scotland and more.
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