The action of the last few days has created rising bearish wedges in Brazilian ETF, S&P 500, and the Russell 2000.
Let’s start with Brazil as it’s become THE international “risk” market, leading all the other BRIC countries in the market (Brazil is blue, Russia green, China red, and India purple).
With that in mind, have a look at Brazil’s ETF which is forming something of a rising bearish wedge pattern. This is a termination pattern which means when it breaks it will likely be down and wipe out most of the gains of the last week.
Now, this pattern does have a bit of upside left in it. But we could just as easily take out the bottom trendline in which case, we’re on our way to new lows.
In the case of the S&P 500, this pattern is far more pronounced and rapidly nearing its apex.
As for the Russell, we’re right at the apex.
When you combine these patterns with the light volume that has occurred throughout this latest move upwards as well as the fact it’s moving on rumors (seriously, Eurobonds? You think Germans are going to support this?), we’re very likely going to see a reversal in the near future culminating in new lows for the year.
Remember, while all the focus is on the Fed and its response to the markets, the US economy continues to worsen. This morning’s Empire Manufacturing numbers were terrible. Add to this the recent market rout (which will impact sentiment surveys going forward) as well the all but guaranteed terrible 3Q earnings we’ll be seeing soon, and we’ve got a real economic downturn on our hands.
And people are viewing stocks as a great buy today?
We went for this same scheme back in 2008. At that time the US economy was clearly breaking down, the banking system was collapsing, and yet people were buying every dip and viewing every negative announcement with rose colored glasses.
We all know how that turned out.
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Good Investing!
Graham Summers
