Stocks are rallying this morning.
They are not rallying because of a change in fundamentals.
They are not rallying because of a significant debt restructuring.
They are not rallying because of great quarterly results from key economic bell-weathers.
They are rallying because of hope for more Central Bank stimulus.
This is the game traders have played for weeks now. Every time it has ended in failure.
From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 could bounce to 1925 as a retest of former support.
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However, the damage from the collapse has been severe. All told, $17 trillion in wealth has been erased in the last six months.
The Wilshire 5000 (the broadest stock index) has broken a clear Head and Shoulders pattern. It has erased two years’ worth of gains in a matter of days. BIG trouble.
The S&P 500 has broken a clear rising wedge pattern. This is a classic topping pattern and tells us that the bull market started 2009 is probably over.
In simple terms, bounces and rallies may provide relief but the trend is now DOWN.
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