The market bounced hard last week when a British MP was killed.

The consensus view is that this tragedy will somehow turn Brits against a Brexit. Britain is voting whether or not to leave the EU this coming Thursday.

From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 tried several times to break above its 50-DMA last week. All of those attempts failed. Moreover, the 50-DMA is now flat: momentum from the February low is ending.

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I’ve noted before that this rally has a seasonal basis.

Oil usually leads stocks in a rally into the summer. However, last week oil took out its trendline:

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