Proof Positive the “Recovery” Is a Myth

For years, I’ve been warning that all claims of economic “recovery” in the US are complete fiction.

We now have definitive proof in the form of tax receipts.

Receipts from the Federal Unemployment Tax Act (FUTA) have been falling steadily since 2012, according to the Office of Management and Budget, moving counter to the growing number of people employed. The FUTA tax is levied at 6 percent on the first $7,000 of an employee’s wage…

Source: CNBC

There you have it. Since 2012, unemployment tax receipts have been FALLING. If the US economy was indeed creating jobs, this number should be rising.

Why is this number falling… particularly when the unemployment number is supposedly below 5% and job growth is great?

There are a couple of answers to that question and neither is favorable. The BLS numbers are either wrong or the quality of new jobs created must be very poor. The latter response seems the most credible; a combination of an increase in the proportion of part-time workers and full-time jobs that provide lower compensation.

Source: CNBC

As I’ve been saying for years… the recovery narrative is a myth.The unemployment number has become a political propaganda tool and has no reflection on the US’ economic realities.

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In simple terms, job growth has NOT come back in the US. Those jobs that are being created are low paying.

Meanwhile, the stock market is at al -time highs…

GPC82316

On that note, we firmly believe the markets are preparing to enter another Crisis. With over 30% of global bonds posting negative yields, the financial system is a powder keg ready to blow. And as usual, the Central Banks are clueless about the risks.

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Because I am usually warning about risks in the market, everyone assumes I’m nothing but a bear who has his clients shorting the heck out of the market all the time.

Pointing out the risks to the stock market is very different from actively shorting it. The editorial I publish here is focused on alerting EVERYONE about the problems the financial system faces.

However, when it comes to active investment strategies… I do see opportunities to short… but I also see opportunities to go long.

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Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Disclaimer: The information contained on this website is for marketing purposes only. Nothing contained in this website is intended to be, nor shall it be construed as, investment advice by Phoenix Capital Research or any of its affiliates, nor is it to be relied upon in making any investment or other decision. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed on this website constitutes and offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or participate in any particular trading strategy. The information in the newsletter is not a complete description of the securities, markets or developments discussed. Information and opinions regarding individual securities do not mean that a security is recommended or suitable for a particular investor. Prior to making any investment decision, you are advised to consult with your broker, investment advisor or other appropriate tax or financial professional to determine the suitability of any investment. 

Opinions and estimates expressed on this website constitute Phoenix Capital Research's judgment as of the date appearing on the opinion or estimate and are subject to change without notice. This information may not reflect events occurring after the date or time of publication. Phoenix Capital Research is not obligated to continue to offer information or opinions regarding any security, instrument or service. 

Information has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Phoenix Capital Research and its officers, directors, employees, agents and/or affiliates may have executed, or may in the future execute, transactions in any of the securities or derivatives of any securities discussed on this email. 

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