A Crash is Coming… (Either in Oil or Stocks)

March 14, 2017

Oil may have just stopped the Bank of Japan.

The fact is that in late September 2016, the Bank of Japan embarked on a new monetary policy of targeting a yield of 0% on 10-Year Japanese Government bonds.

What this means is that the Bank of Japan will intervene in the market to maintain a 0% yield, and this involves aggressively devaluing the Yen against the $USD. You can see this in the chart below.

GPC314171

This is the famed “yen carry trade” through which devaluing the Yen boosts risk assets. The reason it works as market manipulation is that 80% of market activity is now dominated by computer trading algorithms that operate based on correlations.

As soon as the Bank of Japan began this campaign, the algorithms synched up with the Yen/ $USD pair. Since that time, the correlational buying activity between this currency pair and US stocks has been extreme.

On a weekly basis the correlation was above .75 from mid-December until late January. It has since fallen somewhat but remains above 62%.

Let me repeat this… the correlation between the weekly moves of the $USD/YEN pair and the S&P 500 was over 0.75 for more than a month. This is statistically impossible unless you are dealing with outright manipulation via compute algorithms.

However, Oil appears to have finally ended this.

When the Bank of Japan engages in rampant devaluation of the Yen against the $USD is exports deflation into the west. The last time the BoJ did this in 2014, commodities experienced their worst collapse in 40+ years. Oil was what stopped this as it plunged 75%…forcing Oil producing nations to “call the Bank of Japan.”

GPC314172

The same scheme is playing out now. Thus far Oil has been immune to the Bank of Japan’s insanity… but no longer. And if the Yen/$USD pair does not stop dropping, OIL WILL CRASH.

Currently the Yen/ $USD pair suggests Oil is going BELOW $40 per barrel.

GPC314173

If you think last week’s carnage in Oil was bad… wait until you see what is coming. The rampers now have a choice… let stocks “go” or watch as Oil falls in HALF (the ultimate downside could be sub-30s).

Either way, a crash is coming… either in stocks or Oil.

If you’re looking for active real time “buy” and “sell” alerts to help you make money from the markets I strongly urge you to take out a 98 cent trial to my Private Wealth Advisory newsletter.

Private Wealth Advisory is a weekly investment advisory that tells investors what stocks and ETFs to buy and sell… and when to do so.

Does it work?

A full 86% of our investments made money in the last 26 months. Yes, 86%, meaning we make money on more than 8 out of 10 closed positions.

Currently our portfolio is chock full of winners too, including gains of 10%, 12%, 15%, 25% even 33%.

Just yesterday we closed out two more winners of 8% and 9%.

Best of all, you can explore Private Wealth Advisory  for 30 days for just $0.98.

To do so…

Click Here Now!

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

 

Disclaimer: The information contained on this website is for marketing purposes only. Nothing contained in this website is intended to be, nor shall it be construed as, investment advice by Phoenix Capital Research or any of its affiliates, nor is it to be relied upon in making any investment or other decision. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed on this website constitutes and offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or participate in any particular trading strategy. The information in the newsletter is not a complete description of the securities, markets or developments discussed. Information and opinions regarding individual securities do not mean that a security is recommended or suitable for a particular investor. Prior to making any investment decision, you are advised to consult with your broker, investment advisor or other appropriate tax or financial professional to determine the suitability of any investment. 

Opinions and estimates expressed on this website constitute Phoenix Capital Research's judgment as of the date appearing on the opinion or estimate and are subject to change without notice. This information may not reflect events occurring after the date or time of publication. Phoenix Capital Research is not obligated to continue to offer information or opinions regarding any security, instrument or service. 

Information has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Phoenix Capital Research and its officers, directors, employees, agents and/or affiliates may have executed, or may in the future execute, transactions in any of the securities or derivatives of any securities discussed on this email. 

Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and is no guarantee of future results. Securities products are not FDIC insured, are not guaranteed by any bank and involve investment risk, including possible loss of entire value. Phoenix Capital Research, OmniSans Publishing LLC and Graham Summers shall not be responsible or have any liability for investment decisions based upon, or the results obtained from, the information provided. 

Phoenix Capital Research is not responsible for the content of other websites or emails to which this one may be linked and reserves the right to remove such links. OmniSans Publishing LLC and the Phoenix Capital Research Logo are registered trademarks of Phoenix Capital Research. Phoenix Capital Management, Inc.
What Happens When the Everything Bubble Bursts?
  • By trying to corner the bond market (risk-free rate)
  • the Fed has created a bubble in everything
  • We call this THE EVERYTHING BUBBLE
  • Reserve your copy of our Executive Summary
  • To prepare for what's coming down the pike!