The word for this week is “caution.”
We’ve now had two inside days (days in which the high and low for the day were within the boundaries of the previous day’s high and low). This indicates traders are unwilling to commit to either long or short… and the market is preparing for a violent move.
Meanwhile, a “flight to safety” is underway “behind the scenes” with investors pouring into bonds while moving out of stocks. The long bond ETF (TLT) rallied last week, while stocks ended the week rolling over.
This is NOT what you usually expect during options expiration week. And it would suggest that stocks are at risk of a sharp sell-off.
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Chief Market Strategist
Phoenix Capital Research