stock collapse? Archive

The US CANNOT Afford the US Dollar at These Levels

The Powell Fed has decided to embark on an aggressive tightening schedule, with five more rates hikes while also draining an amount equal to Sweden’s GDP in liquidity over the next 18 months. The Fed believe it can do this because the economy is strong and inflation is rising. However, it has failed to account

Rate Hikes+ $40 Billion in QT= Stocks Will Soon Collapse

The single most important bond in the world is the 10-Year US Treasury bond. This bond represents the “risk free” rate of return for a total economic cycle (roughly 10 years) denominated in the global reserve currency (the $USD). Put simply, this is THE bond to watch if you want to keep an eye on

The Fed is Going to Crash Stocks to Save Bonds

The single most important bond in the world is the 10-Year US Treasury bond. This bond represents the “risk free” rate of return for a total economic cycle (roughly 10 years) denominated in the global reserve currency (the $USD). Put simply, this is THE bond to watch if you want to keep an eye on

Could Stocks Crash This Fall?

As we noted on Friday, the official inflation metric, called the Consumer Price Index (or CPI) is designed to HIDE inflation, not measure it. Case in point, over the last two months, the CPI has relied on the collapse in prices of various non-essential items (airline tickets, hotel rooms, etc.) to “cover up” the increase

Stocks Have a Date With 2,400 Unless the Fed Changes Course

As we noted on Friday, the official inflation metric, called the Consumer Price Index (or CPI) is designed to HIDE inflation, not measure it. Case in point, over the last two months, the CPI has relied on the collapse in prices of various non-essential items (airline tickets, hotel rooms, etc.) to “cover up” the increase

Even the Heavily Massaged CPI Has Inflation at 3%

As we noted on Friday, the official inflation metric, called the Consumer Price Index (or CPI) is designed to HIDE inflation, not measure it. Case in point, over the last two months, the CPI has relied on the collapse in prices of various non-essential items (airline tickets, hotel rooms, etc.) to “cover up” the increase

Dear Fed, the PACE of QT is the Problem… Signed, Dr. Copper

The markets are now screaming at the Fed that it needs to “back off.” Copper is widely called “Dr. Copper” due to its close association with economic growth. With that in mind, take a look at the chart below. First and foremost, we see that Copper entered a “growth” period in November 2016. From this

Warning: Copper Suggests the S&P 500 Could Drop to 2,500 FAST

The markets are now screaming at the Fed that it needs to “back off.” Copper is widely called “Dr. Copper” due to its close association with economic growth. With that in mind, take a look at the chart below. First and foremost, we see that Copper entered a “growth” period in November 2016. From this

Copper Has Signaled That the “Election” Growth Rally is OVER!

The markets are now screaming at the Fed that it needs to “back off.” Copper is widely called “Dr. Copper” due to its close association with economic growth. With that in mind, take a look at the chart below. First and foremost, we see that Copper entered a “growth” period in November 2016. From this

Copper Has Just Triggered a “Crash Warning” to Stocks

The markets are now screaming at the Fed that it needs to “back off.” Copper is widely called “Dr. Copper” due to its close association with economic growth. With that in mind, take a look at the chart below. First and foremost, we see that Copper entered a “growth” period in November 2016. From this

Will the Fed’s QT Bury Stocks Again This Month-End?

As we’ve noted previously, the Fed is currently engaged in an aggressive campaign to shrink its balance sheet. What started as just $10 billion per month in QT back in October 2016, has since increased to $30 billion in QT per month as of April 2018. What’s critical to note, however, is that throughout this

The Last Four Times the Fed Did This… Stocks Took a Dive

As we’ve noted previously, the Fed is currently engaged in an aggressive campaign to shrink its balance sheet. What started as just $10 billion per month in QT back in October 2016, has since increased to $30 billion in QT per month as of April 2018. What’s critical to note, however, is that throughout this

Buckle Up For the QT Dump

As we’ve noted previously, the Fed is currently engaged in an aggressive campaign to shrink its balance sheet. What started as just $10 billion per month in QT back in October 2016, has since increased to $30 billion in QT per month as of April 2018. What’s critical to note, however, is that throughout this

Battle Royale: The White House Vs. the Fed

The Trump White House is currently on a collision course with the US Federal Reserve (the Fed). First a little background. The Trump administration has “branded” the stock market as part of its success story. President Trump himself has tweeted on the subject more than 20 times. And Secretary of the Treasury Steve Mnuchin has

Deflation Has Now Spread From Commodity-Centric Economies to Asia… is the US Next?

The financial system is in trouble. Indeed, by the look of things, we are about to experience a wave of deflation… in years. Let’s first talk about the $USD. The $USD has broken above initial resistance (bottom red line) and currently sits just below 95. This is a MAJOR problem for risk assets. Now, some

Ignore the Bounce, the Financial System is in Serious Trouble

The financial system is in trouble. Indeed, by the look of things, we are about to experience a wave of deflation… in years. Let’s first talk about the $USD. The $USD has broken above initial resistance (bottom red line) and currently sits just below 95. This is a MAJOR problem for risk assets. Now, some

Stocks MUST Hold Here or It Gets Serious FAST

Let’s cut through the market BS. The Fed is the single most important issue for the markets… not tariffs, not trade wars, not even the economy. Remember, from 2008-20015, the US markets were completely driven by Fed policy and little else. It was Fed QE programs, combined with seven years of Zero Interest Rate Policy

QT of $30 Billion Per Month Blew Up EMs… Will $50 Billion Per Month Blow Up the S&P 500?

Let’s cut through the market BS. The Fed is the single most important issue for the markets… not tariffs, not trade wars, not even the economy. Remember, from 2008-20015, the US markets were completely driven by Fed policy and little else. It was Fed QE programs, combined with seven years of Zero Interest Rate Policy

The Fed Needs to “Walk Back” Its Policy Error Now… or Stocks Drop 20%

Let’s cut through the market BS. The Fed is the single most important issue for the markets… not tariffs, not trade wars, not even the economy. Remember, from 2008-20015, the US markets were completely driven by Fed policy and little else. It was Fed QE programs, combined with seven years of Zero Interest Rate Policy

Even if China and the Trump Administration Just Make Up? Currencies Think So

As we noted earlier this week, China, tired of the “back and forth” with the Trump administration on trade negotiations, has resorted to devaluing the Yuan. The goal here was to induce another sharp sell-off in stocks, similar to the ones induced by China’s August 2015 and January 2016 devaluations. By the way, those last
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