Perhaps the best tool for anticipating major shifts in the financial system is the ratio between Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS): and the Long-term Treasuries ETF (TLT).

In its simplest form, when this ratio rallies, the financial system is anticipating IN-flation. When this ratio falls, the financial system is anticipating DE-flation.

Below is a 10 year chart for this ratio. And as you can see, it has just broke out of a 10-year deflationary channel.

This is an absolute game-changer.

If this breakout continues, then we have a confirmed shift in the entire financial system away from fearing deflation to expecting inflation.

The impact this will have on all asset classes will be massive. And it’s about to blow up the Everything Bubble.

Bonds trade based on inflation.

If inflation rises, so do bond yields.

When bond yields Rise, bond prices FALL.

And when bond prices FALL, the massive debt bubble begins to burst.

On that note, the yield on the most important bond in the world: the 10-Year Treasury, has already broken above its 20-year trendline.

The US is not alone… the yield on 10-Year German Bunds has also broken its downtrend.

Even Japan’s sovereign bonds are coming into the “inflationary” crosshairs with yields on the 10-Year Japanese Government Bond just beginning to break about their long-term downtrend.

Globally the world has added over $60 trillion in debt since 2007… and all of this was based on interest rates that were close to or even below ZERO.

All of this is at risk of blowing up courtesy of this spike inflation. And it’s going to collapse most asset classes in ways we haven’t seen since 2008.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s in terms of Fed Policy when The Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Perhaps the best tool for anticipating major shifts in the financial system is the ratio between Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS): and the Long-term Treasuries ETF (TLT).

In its simplest form, when this ratio rallies, the financial system is anticipating IN-flation. When this ratio falls, the financial system is anticipating DE-flation.

Below is a 10 year chart for this ratio. And as you can see, it has just broke out of a 10-year deflationary channel.

This is an absolute game-changer.

If this breakout continues, then we have a confirmed shift in the entire financial system away from fearing deflation to expecting inflation.

The impact this will have on all asset classes will be massive. And it’s about to blow up the Everything Bubble.

Bonds trade based on inflation.

If inflation rises, so do bond yields.

When bond yields Rise, bond prices FALL.

And when bond prices FALL, the massive debt bubble begins to burst.

On that note, the yield on the most important bond in the world: the 10-Year Treasury, has already broken above its 20-year trendline.

The US is not alone… the yield on 10-Year German Bunds has also broken its downtrend.

Even Japan’s sovereign bonds are coming into the “inflationary” crosshairs with yields on the 10-Year Japanese Government Bond just beginning to break about their long-term downtrend.

Globally the world has added over $60 trillion in debt since 2007… and all of this was based on interest rates that were close to or even below ZERO.

All of this is at risk of blowing up courtesy of this spike inflation. And it’s going to collapse most asset classes in ways we haven’t seen since 2008.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s in terms of Fed Policy when The Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

The financial media is finally catching on to something we’ve been screaming about for years…

That the Fed’s preferred metric for measuring inflation is a complete joke.

Making matters more difficult, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge does a pitiful job of capturing the quandary facing many households that live paycheck to paycheck. The so-called core PCE is the central bank’s go-to inflation metric. It is derived by netting out the necessities of food and energy from personal consumption expenditures. But the core PCE also minimizes the weight of rent and over-emphasizes health care due to Medicaid and Medicare’s inputs.

Source: Bloomberg

What the article doesn’t understand is that this scheme is intentional.

The reality is that since the US abandoned the Gold Standard in 1971, the Fed has effectively been “papering over” declining living standards in that the actual “cost of living” in the US has soared relative to real incomes.

This fact stares all of us in the face every day. Back in the late ‘60s / early ‘70s, one parent worked and most Americans had a decent quality of life. Today both parents typically work and are one financial emergency away from being broke.

The Fed masks this by understating inflation and by providing an endless stream of easy credit/ debt. This is why the Fed’s continuous “gosh, inflation is just too low… we better keep on printing money forever,” shtick is so ridiculous.

However, like the famous Frankenstein monster, the Fed’s inflationary policies are about to turn on their master.

The fact is that inflation is actually clocking in well over 3%. And it’s about to blow up the Everything Bubble.

Bonds trade based on inflation.

If inflation rises, so do bond yields.

When bond yields Rise, bond prices FALL.

And when bond prices FALL, the massive debt bubble begins to burst.

On that note, the yield on the most important bond in the world: the 10-Year Treasury, has already broken above its 20-year trendline.

The US is not alone… the yield on 10-Year German Bunds has also broken its downtrend.

Even Japan’s sovereign bonds are coming into the “inflationary” crosshairs with yields on the 10-Year Japanese Government Bond just beginning to break about their long-term downtrend.

Globally the world has added over $60 trillion in debt since 2007… and all of this was based on interested rates that were close to or even below ZERO.

All of this is at risk of blowing up courtesy of this spike inflation. And it’s going to collapse most asset classes in ways we haven’t seen since 2008.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s in terms of Fed Policy when The Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

The financial media is finally catching on to something we’ve been screaming about for years…

That the Fed’s preferred metric for measuring inflation is a complete joke.

Making matters more difficult, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge does a pitiful job of capturing the quandary facing many households that live paycheck to paycheck. The so-called core PCE is the central bank’s go-to inflation metric. It is derived by netting out the necessities of food and energy from personal consumption expenditures. But the core PCE also minimizes the weight of rent and over-emphasizes health care due to Medicaid and Medicare’s inputs.

Source: Bloomberg

What the article doesn’t understand is that this scheme is intentional.

The reality is that since the US abandoned the Gold Standard in 1971, the Fed has effectively been “papering over” declining living standards in that the actual “cost of living” in the US has soared relative to real incomes.

This fact stares all of us in the face every day. Back in the late ‘60s / early ‘70s, one parent worked and most Americans had a decent quality of life. Today both parents typically work and are one financial emergency away from being broke.

The Fed masks this by understating inflation and by providing an endless stream of easy credit/ debt. This is why the Fed’s continuous “gosh, inflation is just too low… we better keep on printing money forever,” shtick is so ridiculous.

However, like the famous Frankenstein monster, the Fed’s inflationary policies are about to turn on their master.

The fact is that inflation is actually clocking in well over 3%. And it’s about to blow up the Everything Bubble.

Bonds trade based on inflation.

If inflation rises, so do bond yields.

When bond yields Rise, bond prices FALL.

And when bond prices FALL, the massive debt bubble begins to burst.

On that note, the yield on the most important bond in the world: the 10-Year Treasury, has already broken above its 20-year trendline.

The US is not alone… the yield on 10-Year German Bunds has also broken its downtrend.

Even Japan’s sovereign bonds are coming into the “inflationary” crosshairs with yields on the 10-Year Japanese Government Bond just beginning to break about their long-term downtrend.

Globally the world has added over $60 trillion in debt since 2007… and all of this was based on interested rates that were close to or even below ZERO.

All of this is at risk of blowing up courtesy of this spike inflation. And it’s going to collapse most asset classes in ways we haven’t seen since 2008.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s in terms of Fed Policy when The Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

It’s no secret that Central Banks have been funneling liquidity both directly and indirectly into stocks. However, what most investors don’t realize is that this liquidity pump is about to end.

Why?

Because the endless streams of liquidity (Central Banks continue to run QE programs of $100+ billion per month despite the global economy stabilizing) have unleashed inflation.

Forget the “official” date. That stuff is all propaganda. Take a look at what is happening in the bond markets which trade based on inflation in the real world.

When inflation rises, bond yields rise. And right now, sovereign bond yields are rising around the world.

The yield on the US 10-Year Treasury has broken its 20-year downtrend.

The US is not alone… the yield on 10-Year German Bunds has also broken its downtrend.

Even Japan’s sovereign bonds are coming into the “inflationary” crosshairs with yields on the 10-Year Japanese Government Bond just beginning to break about their long-term downtrend.

Because if bond rates continue to rise, many countries will quickly find themselves insolvent.

Globally the world has added over $60 trillion in debt since 2007… and all of this was based on interested rates that were close to or even below ZERO.

Central Bank cannot and will not risk blowing up this debt bomb. So they are going to be forced to “pull the plug” on liquidity and “let stocks go.”

Put simply, if the choice is:

1)   Let stocks drop and deal with complaints from Wall Street…

Or…

2)   Let the bond bubble blow up, destabilizing the entire financial system and rendering most governments insolvent…

Central Banks are going to opt for #1 Every. Single. Time.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s in terms of Fed Policy when The Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Stocks are about to wake up to the risk of “higher rates.”

As I outlined in my bestselling book, The Everything Bubble: The Endgame For Central Bank Policy, the entire stock market move from the 2009 bottom onwards was induced by the Federal Reserve creating a bubble in US sovereign bonds, also called Treasuries.

The idea here was that if the Fed could force bond prices high enough (resulting in extraordinarily low bond yields) investors would be forced to move into stocks to seek higher returns. This was the “There Is No Alternative” (TINA) theme that Wall Street pushed from 2010 onward.

And it’s about to crash into a wall.

The bond market has finally awoken from its slumber. And bond yields are starting to rise to accommodate the higher rate of inflation that is rippling through the financial system.

Indeed, the yield on the 10-Year US Treasury (the single most important bond in the world) has taken out its 20-year trendline.

Put simply, the bond market is warning that we are about to enter a “risk off” event in the financial system. And that “risk off” is going to be due to an inflationary shock that 99% of investors don’t see coming.

Put simply, the bond market is forecasting a SEVERE inflationary shock is coming shortly.

And it’s going to blow up the Everything Bubble.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s in terms of Fed Policy when The Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Over the weekend, the Cleveland Fed released its media Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December 2017.

The result? The Median CPI rose 0.3% in December, an annualized rate of 3.5%.

Put simply, core inflation is rising rapidly… and the Fed is WAY behind the curve.

Small wonder the US Dollar is collapsing, breaking through critical resistance.

The BIG PICTURE chart is even uglier, suggesting the $USD is going to crash to the mid-80s soon.

Put simply, the $USD is forecasting a SEVERE inflationary shock is coming shortly.

And it’s going to blow up the Everything Bubble.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s in terms of Fed Policy when The Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Over the weekend, the Cleveland Fed released its media Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December 2017.

The result? The Median CPI rose 0.3% in December, an annualized rate of 3.5%.

Put simply, core inflation is rising rapidly… and the Fed is WAY behind the curve.

Small wonder the US Dollar is collapsing, breaking through critical resistance.

The BIG PICTURE chart is even uglier, suggesting the $USD is going to crash to the mid-80s soon.

Put simply, the $USD is forecasting a SEVERE inflationary shock is coming shortly.

And it’s going to blow up the Everything Bubble.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s in terms of Fed Policy when The Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

If you want to make money investing, you first need to understand the structure of the asset classes in our current financial system,

Everyone likes to go bonkers over stocks, but the reality is that the stock market is in fact one of the smallest and least liquid markets on the planet. All told, US stocks are roughly $26 trillion in market cap.

By way of contrast, the US debt markets (Treasuries, corporate, municipal, local, etc.) is well north of $60 trillion.

And the currency markets (which cannot be accurately measured because every trade involves a currency pair) trades over $5 trillion per day.

Put simply, currencies are the “smartest” money, followed by bonds, and then finally stocks. So when a seismic change takes place, currencies and bonds pick up on it LONG before stocks do.

With that in mind consider that the $USD is collapsing, having gone almost straight down for 12 months.

Now consider that the US Treasury bond market, is falling in price, resulting in yields spiking above their 20-year downtrend.

BOTH of these assets are forecasting the same thing: INFLATION.

Inflation forces the $USD DOWN and bond yields UP.

So we’ve got both the “smart” money and the SMARTEST money forecasting the same thing.

And it’s going to blow up the Everything Bubble.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s in terms of Fed Policy when The Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

If you want to make money investing, you first need to understand the structure of the asset classes in our current financial system,

Everyone likes to go bonkers over stocks, but the reality is that the stock market is in fact one of the smallest and least liquid markets on the planet. All told, US stocks are roughly $26 trillion in market cap.

By way of contrast, the US debt markets (Treasuries, corporate, municipal, local, etc.) is well north of $60 trillion.

And the currency markets (which cannot be accurately measured because every trade involves a currency pair) trades over $5 trillion per day.

Put simply, currencies are the “smartest” money, followed by bonds, and then finally stocks. So when a seismic change takes place, currencies and bonds pick up on it LONG before stocks do.

With that in mind consider that the $USD is collapsing, having gone almost straight down for 12 months.

Now consider that the US Treasury bond market, is falling in price, resulting in yields spiking above their 20-year downtrend.

BOTH of these assets are forecasting the same thing: INFLATION.

Inflation forces the $USD DOWN and bond yields UP.

So we’ve got both the “smart” money and the SMARTEST money forecasting the same thing.

And it’s going to blow up the Everything Bubble.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s in terms of Fed Policy when The Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

If you want to make money investing, you first need to understand the structure of the asset classes in our current financial system,

Everyone likes to go bonkers over stocks, but the reality is that the stock market is in fact one of the smallest and least liquid markets on the planet. All told, US stocks are roughly $26 trillion in market cap.

By way of contrast, the US debt markets (Treasuries, corporate, municipal, local, etc.) is well north of $60 trillion.

And the currency markets (which cannot be accurately measured because every trade involves a currency pair) trades over $5 trillion per day.

Put simply, currencies are the “smartest” money, followed by bonds, and then finally stocks. So when a seismic change takes place, currencies and bonds pick up on it LONG before stocks do.

With that in mind consider that the $USD is collapsing, having gone almost straight down for 12 months.

Now consider that the US Treasury bond market, is falling in price, resulting in yields spiking above their 20-year downtrend.

BOTH of these assets are forecasting the same thing: INFLATION.

Inflation forces the $USD DOWN and bond yields UP.

So we’ve got both the “smart” money and the SMARTEST money forecasting the same thing.

And it’s going to blow up the Everything Bubble.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s in terms of Fed Policy when The Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

The biggest news today comes from China, which has announced it will “slow or halt” US Treasury purchases.

This is the so-called NUCLEAR option: the threat by China to stop buying US debt. And it’s an absolute game-changer.

Yields on the 10-Year Treasury spiked on the news as investors dumped Treasuries.

Source: Blooomberg

This could very well be what bursts the EVERYTHING Bubble.

As I explained in detail in by bestselling book The Everything Bubble: The Endgame For Central Bank Policy, the Fed dealt with the 2008 meltdown by intentionally created a bubble in US Treasuries.

And because these bonds represent the “risk-free” rate of return for the US financial system, when the Fed did this, it created a bubble in EVERYTHING (including stocks).

And now that China is threatening to dump US Treasuries, this could be what bursts the Everything Bubble.

The time to prepare for this is NOW before disaster hits.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s in terms of Fed Policy when The Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Since the late ‘90s, the US has increasingly financed its “growth” with debt.

As a result, the amount of debt in the system, relative to GDP, has skyrocketed.

The notion that we can “grow our way” out of this is ridiculous. The US Government has brought in RECORD amount of taxes since 2014… and the Government has STILL runs $400+ Billion deficits Every. Single. Year.

Put another way, the US Government is spending an extra $400 billion every year DESPITE it bringing in a record amount of cash.

Now, the Fed claims it’s taking advantage of the current economic stability to tighten policy, but this is a joke. The Fed balance sheet has dropped only $80 billion in TWO YEARS.

And the second the credit cycle turns, the Fed will face a choice… let the system reset (as it almost did in 2008) or monetize everything.

Which option to you think it will go for?

With that in mind, there is only one course forward: printing more and more money. The outcome of this will be inflation… and not the good kind.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s in terms of Fed Policy when The Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research