Is This Whole Stock Market Bounce Just One Big Trap?

I don’t trust this rally.

Few analysts realize that the sharpest, most aggressive rallies occur during bear markets. The reason for this is that during bear markets, investors tend to go short (borrow shares to bet on a collapse).

So when the market rallies even a little bit, it often will go absolutely vertical as these individuals panic and cover their shorts (which increases the buying).

Consider the Tech Bubble. When it burst, we had THREE monster rallies of 17%, 33% and 16% in just SIX months time!

GPC3-7-16

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Over the same time period, the S&P 500 DOWN 8%.

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Anyone who bought into these moves for the long-term ended up get crushed as the market soon rolled over and worked its way down. The below chart gives some perspective on just how much further stocks would fall relative to these traps.

GPC37162

Smart investors, however, used those rallies to prep for the next round of the drop. They didn’t get suckered into believing that it was the beginning of the next bull market.

They took action to prepare to protect their wealth from the bear market.

If you’re an investor who wants to protect yourself from the coming bear market, then you NEED to take out a trial subscription to our paid premium investment newsletter Private Wealth Advisory.

Private Wealth Advisory is a WEEKLY investment newsletter with an incredible track record.

To whit… in the last 16 months we’ve closed out  75 straight winning trades.

Did I say, “75 straight”winning trades”?!?

Yes, I did.

For 16 months, not only have Private Wealth Advisory subscribers locked in 75 CONSECUTIVE winners including gains of 18%, 36%, 69%, even 119%…

But throughout that ENTIRE TIME we’ve not closed a SINGLE loser.

As you can imagine, this track record is a getting a ton of attention, so we are going to be closing the doors on our current offer to explore Private Wealth Advisory at the end of this month.

So if you want to try Private Wealth Advisory for 30 days for just 98 cents, you need to get moving, because the clock is ticking and slots are quickly running out.

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Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in stock collapse?

Stocks Have Rallied Based on Hope (Nothing’s Changed)

What a different four weeks makes.

Four weeks ago, the S&P 500 had just taken out critical support. Everyone was panicking that the market was about to implode.

sc

  1. At that time, China was continuing to devalue the Yuan as its economy collapsed.
  1. Europe was tumbling based on Draghi’s inability to generate inflation.
  1. The US economy was rolling over sharply as deflation arose courtesy of US Dollar strength and a Fed rate hike.

Since that time, not one of those issues has been resolved. The only thing that has changed is that the S&P 500 has rallied 9%.

sc-1

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Over the same time period, the S&P 500 DOWN 8%.

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Indeed, if anything we are getting additional signs things are worsening outside of the stock market.

China’s economy is in a full-scale collapse. According to electricity consumption the country’s economic activity is NEGATIVE. Indeed, 28 out of 31 provinces had a NEGATIVE deflator for 2015. China as a whole is in recession if not outright deflation.

Ccb3irUXEAAjNfJ

Europe just posted negative inflation. Mario Draghi has cut rates into NIRP three times and spent over €670 billion. This bought at best a year’s worth of uptick in inflation data.

euro-area-inflation-cpi-1

And finally, the US continues to post worsening economic data. US services have slumped into contraction just as we predicted (manufacturing has been in a recession since mid-2015).

And the Fed is hiking rates?

Another crisis is coming. Nothing has changed since February 9th. Markets have rallied on hype and hope of more stimulus, but that will only go so far. The business cycle has turned. And credit is SCREAMING that something BIG is coming down the pike.

Smart investors are preparing now.

If you’re an investor who wants to increase your wealth dramatically, then you NEED to take out a trial subscription to our paid premium investment newsletter Private Wealth Advisory.

Private Wealth Advisory is a WEEKLY investment newsletter with an incredible track record.

Last week we closed three more winners including gains of 36%, 69% and a whopping 118% bringing us to 75 straight winning trades.

And throughout the last 14 months, we’ve not closed a SINGLE loser.

In fact, I’m so confident in my ability to pick winning investments that I’ll give you 30 days to try out Private Wealth Advisory for just 98 CENTS

If you have not seen significant returns from Private Wealth Advisory during those 30 days, just drop us a line and we’ll cancel your subscription with no additional charges.

All the reports you download are yours to keep, free of charge.

To take out a $0.98, 30-day trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

More and More Fed Officials Calling For NIRP

The Fed Vice-Chair has begun laying the groundwork for NIRP.

The US Federal Reserve is obsessed with market reactions to its policies. Because of this, anytime the Fed plans to announce a major change in policy, it preps the markets via numerous leaks and hints… oftentimes for months in advance.

An excellent example of this concerns the Fed’s decision to taper QE back in 2013.

At that time, the Fed had been engaging in two open ended-QE programs… programs that had been running for over six months.

Rather than simply beginning to taper the programs, then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, hinted that the Fed was contemplating a taper in June.

The markets reacted sharply with bond yields rising.

The Fed then spent six months allowing the market to get used to the idea of a taper, before the actual taper finally began in December 2013.

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Over the same time period, the S&P 500 DOWN 8%.

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Put another way, the Fed gave the markets a full six months to adjust to a change in policy, before actually implementing said change. This only highlights just how focused the Fed is on market reactions to its policies.

In the simplest of terms: the Fed will NEVER surprise the market. This is particularly true now that the Fed is in the political cross hairs due to ample evidence showing its policies have increased wealth inequality.

If the Fed is planning on something new, particularly something that might have political repercussions, we’ll see numerous hints and suggestions well before the actual policy is unveiled.

With that in mind, we need to consider that the Fed is now actively engaged in a campaign to prep the markets for Negative Interest Rate Policy or NIRP.

  1. First we find that a Fed official hinted at NIRP during the Fed’s September 2015 meeting.
  1. Then, in early October 2015, NY Fed President Bill Dudley stating that negative rates were “an option” though not a “relevant conversation” right now.
  1. This statement was followed up by former Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota stating point blank that the Fed should “consider negative rates.”

Kocherlakota is a former Fed President and so is more aggressive with his campaign.

Fast forward to yesterday and…

  1. Now Fed Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer stated in a Bloomberg interview that NIRP is working “more than I expected.”

Carefully note the word choice here. Fischer didn’t say he was “surprised” to see NIRP working; his phrasing implies that he “expected” NIRP to work. The surprise element is just how well it’s working.

It is one thing for Fed uber-doves or former Fed President to promote an extremely aggressive scheme; it’s entirely something else for the Fed VICE-CHAIR to do so.

Fischer is the current Vice-Chair for the Fed (formerly this position was held by Janet Yellen). As such, he is the most likely candidate for future Fed Chair when Yellen’s term ends in February 2018.

Previously, the Fed had never once hinted at or discussed NIRP during its policy meetings. Then, in the span of three weeks, an anonymous Fed official state that he or she believes NIRP is coming to the US, followed by two highly visible Presidents suggesting NIRP for consideration, and now the current Fed Vice Chair (and most likely candidate for future Fed Chair) has stated that NIRP is “working more than I expected.”

NIRP WILL BE COMING TO THE US.

This is simply part of the Fed’s larger War on Cash.

For six years straight, the Fed has been trying to “trash” cash.

First it cut interest rates to zero… making it so that savings deposits produced almost nothing in the way of interest income. Consider that at current rates, a retiree with $1 million in savings earns a measly $2,500 per year in interest income.

The Fed’s hope was that by making it painful for savers to sit in cash, said savers would move into risk assets such as bonds and stocks. This has worked in that stocks are now in one of, if not THE biggest bubbles in history… while bonds are trading at yields never before seen outside of wartime.

However, the Fed overlooked two outlets for investors who didn’t want to be forced into risk. They are: Gold bullion and physical cash.

The Fed has been dealing with bullion via clear manipulation of prices for years (that’s an article for another time). And now it is moving to make physical cash obsolete.

If you’re an investor who wants to increase your wealth dramatically, then you NEED to take out a trial subscription to our paid premium investment newsletter Private Wealth Advisory.

Private Wealth Advisory is a WEEKLY investment newsletter with an incredible track record.

Last week we closed three more winners including gains of 36%, 69% and a whopping 118% bringing us to 75 straight winning trades.

And throughout the last 14 months, we’ve not closed a SINGLE loser.

In fact, I’m so confident in my ability to pick winning investments that I’ll give you 30 days to try out Private Wealth Advisory for just 98 CENTS

If you have not seen significant returns from Private Wealth Advisory during those 30 days, just drop us a line and we’ll cancel your subscription with no additional charges.

All the reports you download are yours to keep, free of charge.

To take out a $0.98, 30-day trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

Yes, What’s Coming Will Be Worse Than 2008

For six years, the world has operated under a complete delusion that Central Banks somehow fixed the 2008 Crisis.

All of the arguments claiming this defied common sense. A 5th grader would tell you that you cannot solve a debt problem by issuing more debt. Similarly, anyone with a functioning brain could tell you that a bunch of academics with no real-world experience, none of whom have ever started a business or created a single job can’t “save” the economy.

However, there is an AWFUL lot of money at stake in believing these lies. So the media and the banks and the politicians were happy to promote them. Indeed, one could very easily argue that nearly all of the wealth and power held by those at the top of the economy stem from this fiction.

So it’s little surprise that no one would admit the facts: that the Fed and other Central Banks not only don’t have a clue how to fix the problem, but that they actually have almost no incentive to do so.

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Even if you include ALL of our losers, we finished 2015 UP 35%

Over the same time period, the S&P 500 was DOWN.

This continues this year. Already we’ve closed out FIVE double digit winners in 2016. Including a 43% gain closed within 24 hours of us opening it!

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So here are the facts:

1)   The REAL problem for the financial system is the bond bubble. In 2008 when the crisis hit it was $80 trillion. It has since grown to over $100 trillion.

2)   The derivatives market that uses this bond bubble as collateral is over $555 trillion in size.

3)   Many of the large multinational corporations, sovereign governments, and even municipalities have used derivatives to fake earnings and hide debt. NO ONE knows to what degree this has been the case, but given that 20% of corporate CFOs have admitted to faking earnings in the past, it’s likely a significant amount.

4)   Corporations today are more leveraged than they were in 2007. As Stanley Druckenmiller noted recently, in 2007 corporate bonds were $3.5 trillion… today they are $7 trillion: an amount equal to nearly 50% of US GDP.

5)   The Central Banks are now all leveraged at levels greater than or equal to where Lehman Brothers was when it imploded. The Fed is leveraged at 78 to 1. The ECB is leveraged at over 26 to 1. Lehman Brothers was leveraged at 30 to 1.

6)   The Central Banks have no idea how to exit their strategies. Fed minutes released from 2009 show Janet Yellen was worried about how to exit when the Fed’s balance sheet was $1.3 trillion (back in 2009). Today it’s over $4.5 trillion.

We are heading for a crisis that will be exponentially worse than 2008. The global Central Banks have literally bet the financial system that their theories will work.  They haven’t. All they’ve done is set the stage for an even worse crisis in which entire countries will go bankrupt.

The situation is clear: the 2008 Crisis was the warm up. The next Crisis will be THE REAL Crisis. The Crisis in which Central Banking itself will fail.

If you’re an investor who wants to increase your wealth dramatically, then you NEED to take out a trial subscription to our paid premium investment newsletter Private Wealth Advisory.

Private Wealth Advisory is a WEEKLY investment newsletter with an incredible track record.

Last week we closed three more winners including gains of 36%, 69% and a whopping 118% bringing us to 75 straight winning trades. 

And throughout the last 14 months, we’ve not closed a SINGLE loser.

With a track record like this, we’re getting a LOT of attention, so we’re going to be raising the price of a Private Wealth Advisory in the next few weeks.

However, you can try it right now for 30 days for just 98 cents… but you better move fast, because these slots are selling out!!!

To lock in a $0.98, 30-day trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

The Honest Truth About Why A Cash Ban is Coming… Pt 2

Yesterday we outlined that Central Banks’ War on Cash is about to go into Hyperdrive.

Today we’re discussing just the policies Central Banks are already working to implement to eviscerate savings.

Globally, over 50% of Government bonds currently yield 1% or less. These are bonds that are negative in real terms meaning they are trailing well below the rate of inflation.

Even more astounding is the fact that over $7 trillion in debt currently have negative yields in nominal terms, meaning the bond literally has a negative yield when it trades.

This means that when an investor buys these bonds, he or she pays the Government for the right to own. There is NO rate of return; by buying these bonds you are literally incinerating your capital. Large bond funds that are required to own certain types of bonds have no choice but to lose money.

However, this is just the start.

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Back in 1999, the Fed published a paper suggesting the implementation of a “carry tax” or taxing actual physical cash using an expiration date if depositors aren’t willing to spend the money.

The paper, written 16 years ago, suggested that if the Fed were to find that zero interest rates didn’t induce economic growth, it could try one of three things:

1)   Buy assets (QE)

2)   Money transfers (literally HAND OUT money through various vehicles)

3)   A carry tax (meaning tax the value of actual physical cash that is taken out of the system)

We’ve already seen six years of ZIRP and $3 trillion in QE. Next up are outright money transfers and a carry tax on physical cash.

What is a “carry tax”?

The idea here is that since it costs relatively little to store physical cash (the cost of buying a safe), the Fed should be permitted to “tax” physical cash to force cash holders to spend it (put it back into the banking system) or invest it.

The way this would work is that the cash would have some kind of magnetic strip that would record the date that it was withdrawn. Whenever the bill was finally deposited in a bank again, the receiving bank would use this data to deduct a certain percentage of the bill’s value as a “tax” for holding it.

For instance, if the rate was 5% per month and you took out a $100 bill for two months and then deposited it, the receiving bank would only register the bill as being worth $90.25 ($100* 0.95=$95 or the first month, and then $95 *0.95= $90.25 for the second month).

It sounds like absolute insanity, but I can assure you that Central Banks take these sorts of proposals very seriously.  QE sounded completely insane back in 1999 and we’ve already seen three rounds of it amounting to over $3 trillion.

No one would have believed the Fed could get away with printing $3 trillion for QE in 1999, but it has happened already. And given that it has failed to boost consumer spending/ economic growth, I wouldn’t at all surprised to see the Fed float one of the other ideas in the coming months.

The time to take action is now!

If you’re an investor who wants to increase your wealth dramatically, then you NEED to take out a trial subscription to our paid premium investment newsletter Private Wealth Advisory.

Private Wealth Advisory is a WEEKLY investment newsletter with an incredible track record.

Yesterday we closed out THREE more double digit winners (all of them opened just two weeks ago) bringing our current winning streak to 74 straight winning trades,

And throughout the last 14 months, we’ve not closed a SINGLE loser.

With a track record like this, we’re getting a LOT of attention, so we’re going to be raising the price of a Private Wealth Advisory in the next few weeks.

However, you can try it right now for 30 days for just 98 cents… but you better move fast, because these slots are selling out!!!

To lock in a $0.98, 30-day trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

The Honest Truth About Why A Cash Ban is Coming… Pt 1

The global Central Banks have declared War on Cash.

Historically, one of the safest things to do when the markets begin to collapse is to move a significant portion of your holdings to cash. As the old adage says, during times of deflation, “cash is king.”

The notion here is that cash is a safe haven. And while earning 1-2% in interest doesn’t do much in terms of growing your wealth, it sure beats losing 20%+ by holding on to stocks or bonds during their respective bear markets

However, in today’s world of fiat-based Central Planning, cash represents a REAL problem for the Central Banks.

The reason for this concerns the actual structure of the financial system. As I’ve outlined previously, that structure is as follows:

  • The total currency (actual cash in the form of bills and coins) in the US financial system is a little over $1.36 trillion.
  • When you include digital money sitting in short-term accounts and long-term accounts then you’re talking about roughly $10 trillion in “money” in the financial system.
  • In contrast, the money in the US stock market (equity shares in publicly traded companies) is over $20 trillion in size.
  • The US bond market (money that has been lent to corporations, municipal Governments, State Governments, and the Federal Government) is almost twice this at $38 trillion.
  • Total Credit Market Instruments (mortgages, collateralized debt obligations, junk bonds, commercial paper and other digitally-based “money” that is based on debt) is even larger $58.7 trillion.
  • Unregulated over the counter derivatives traded between the big banks and corporations is north of $220 trillion.

When looking over these data points, the first thing that jumps out at the viewer is that the vast bulk of “money” in the system is in the form of digital loans or credit (non-physical debt).

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Over the same time period, the S&P 500 was DOWN.

This continues this year. Already we’ve closed out FIVE double digit winners in 2016. Including a 43% gain closed within 24 hours of us opening it!

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To take out a $0.99, 30 day trial subscription to THE CRISIS TRADER...

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———————————————————————————

Put another way, actual physical money or cash (as in bills or coins you can hold in your hand) comprises less than 1% of the “money” in the financial system.

Here is the financial system in picture form. I’m not including hard assets such as gold, real estate, or the like. We’re only talking about relatively liquid financial assets items that can be sold (turned into cash) quickly.

system1

Of course, Wall Street will argue that the derivatives market is notional in value (meaning very little of this is actually “at risk”). However, even if we remove derivatives from the mix, the system is still very clearly based on credit, with only a small sliver of actual physical cash outstanding:

system2

Put simply, the vast majority of wealth in the US is in fact digital wealth that moves from bank to bank without ever being converted into actual physical cash.

As far as the Central Banks are concerned, this is a good thing because if investors/depositors were ever to try and convert even a small portion of this “wealth” into actual physical bills, the system would implode (there simply is not enough actual cash).

Remember, the current financial system is based on debt. The benchmark for “risk free” money in this system is not actual cash but US Treasuries.

In this scenario, when the 2008 Crisis hit, one of the biggest problems for the Central Banks was to stop investors from fleeing digital wealth for the comfort of physical cash. Indeed, the actual “thing” that almost caused the financial system to collapse was when depositors attempted to pull $500 billion out of money market funds.

A money market fund takes investors’ cash and plunks it into short-term highly liquid debt and credit securities. These funds are meant to offer investors a return on their cash, while being extremely liquid (meaning investors can pull their money at any time).

This works great in theory… but when $500 billion in money was being pulled (roughly 24% of the entire market) in the span of four weeks, the truth of the financial system was quickly laid bare: that digital money is not in fact safe.

To use a metaphor, when the money market fund and commercial paper markets collapsed, the oil that kept the financial system working dried up. Almost immediately, the gears of the system began to grind to a halt.

When all of this happened, the global Central Banks realized that their worst nightmare could in fact become a reality: that if a significant percentage of investors/ depositors ever tried to convert their “wealth” into cash (particularly physical cash) the whole system would implode.

As a result of this, virtually every monetary action taken by the Fed since this time has been devoted to forcing investors away from cash and into risk assets. The most obvious move was to cut interest rates to 0.25%, rendering the return on cash to almost nothing.

However, in their own ways, the various QE programs and Operation Twist have all had similar aims: to force investors away from cash, particularly physical cash.

After all, if cash returns next to nothing, anyone who doesn’t want to lose their purchasing power is forced to seek higher yields in bonds or stocks.

The Fed’s economic models predicted that by doing this, the US economy would come roaring back. The only problem is that it hasn’t. In fact, by most metrics, the US economy has flat-lined for several years now, despite the Fed having held ZIRP for 5-6 years and engaged in three rounds of QE.

Let me put this very bluntly. The Fed and other Central Banks literally took the nuclear option in dealing with the 2008 bust. They have done everything they can to trash cash and force investors/ depositors into risk assets. But these polices have failed to generate growth.

Rather than admit they are completely wrong, Central Banks are reverting to more and more extreme measures to destroy cash and force investors to move into risk against their will.

Over 20% of global GDP is currently sporting NEGATIVE yields on their bonds.

This is just the start of a much larger strategy of declaring War on Cash.

If you’re an investor who wants to increase your wealth dramatically, then you NEED to take out a trial subscription to our paid premium investment newsletter Private Wealth Advisory.

Private Wealth Advisory is a WEEKLY investment newsletter with an incredible track record.

Yesterday we closed out THREE more double digit winners (all of them opened just two weeks ago) bringing our current winning streak to 75 straight winning trades,

And throughout the last 14 months, we’ve not closed a SINGLE loser.

With a track record like this, we’re getting a LOT of attention, so we’re going to be raising the price of a Private Wealth Advisory in the next few weeks.

However, you can try it right now for 30 days for just 98 cents… but you better move fast, because these slots are selling out!!!

To lock in a $0.98, 30-day trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

The Markets Are Misreading the Data

The US markets are in a quandary.

On the one hand, some of the data (GDP growth, unemployment, etc.) suggests the Fed should continue to hike rates. On the other hand, other data points (food stamp usage, labor participation rate) suggest the US never actually entered a real recovery.

More importantly, how can the jobs data suggest such a strong employment situation… when one in seven Americans are on food stamps?

Let us, consider how the Labor Department calculates the unemployment numbers… those same numbers that the ENTIRE stock market reacts to every few weeks.

Every month, the US Government conducts a “Current Population Survey” through which it calls or visits 60,000 US households and asks them questions about their current employment or lack thereof. This usually occurs on the week of the month containing the 12th.

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Over the same time period, the S&P 500 DOWN 8%.

That’s correct, with minimal risk, we are outperforming the S&P 500 by 33%... and the year only just started!

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Thus, in order for the survey to be accurate…

1)   The US Government official has to make the phone call or go in person to the house (there have been some controversies regarding falsifying results).

2)   Someone has to pick up the phone or answer the door when the Government employee calls or visits.

3)   The person has to agree to an interview regarding the employment status of all members of his or her household with the US Government

4)   The person has to answer the interview questions truthfully (more on this shortly).

5)   The Labor Department’s economic model has to take this information and accurately render it into a nationwide unemployment number.

Thus, for the numbers to be accurate, the person being interviewed has to be willing to talk honestly to the US Government about personal details that could be quite embarassing.

Why is this a problem?

Consider that as far back as 2003, 30% of Americans viewed the US Government as an “immediate threat” to their “rights and freedoms.” Post 2008, the number has jumped to just below 50%.

Again, nearly half of Americans see the US Government as an “immediate threat.”

gallup

Thus, by proxy, roughly half of the people answering the phone or door for the Labor Department’s Current Population Survey have this view. What are the odds these individuals will be forthright and comfortable discussing the details of their family’s employment situation with a US Government official?

Even if the official is doing their absolute best to get correct information, the survey respondent might not be totally honest!

To top it off, there is debate as to what is the best means of interpreting the raw data. For instance, the Richmond Fed’s NEI measure (which measures those out of the labor force as well as those who are unemployed) puts current unemployment above 8% WAY above the “official” reading of 5.0%!!!

non_employ_index_latest_chart_small

Even after all of this, there are the revisions to consider… Heck, the Bureau of Economic Analysis revised three years worth of GDP growth data DOWN from 2.3% to 2.0% in July of last year.

For this reason and others, we believe that the recovery has been greatly overstated in the media and that the markets are primed for a collapse. Indeed, we’ve already taken out the bull market trendline dating back to the 2009 bottom.

sc

We fully believe this to be the case. And when this bubble bursts, it will trigger a crash that will make 2008 look like a picnic.

If you’re an investor who wants to increase your wealth dramatically, then you NEED to take out a trial subscription to our paid premium investment newsletter Private Wealth Advisory.

Private Wealth Advisory is a WEEKLY investment newsletter with an incredible track record.

Last week we closed three more winners including gains of 36%, 69% and a whopping 118% bringing us to 75 straight winning trades.

And throughout the last 14 months, we’ve not closed a SINGLE loser.

This track record is a getting a ton of attention, so we are going to be closing the doors on our current offer to explore Private Wealth Advisory at the end of this month.

So if you want to try Private Wealth Advisory for 30 days for just 98 cents, you need to get moving, because the clock is ticking and slots are quickly running out.

To lock in one of the remaining slots…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

That Makes TWO Central Bankers Ringing Bells At the Top

In the last month, we’ve had two major confessions from Central Bankers.

We’ve already detailed the first, which came from the Head of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda.

The second major confession from a Central Banker came from ECB President Mario Draghi. A few days ago, Draghi gave a speech in which he said:

Very low inflation complicates the adjustment process within countries, leading to higher unemployment. It delays the rebalancing process across countries, hindering those that lost competitiveness prior to the crisis from regaining it. And if low inflation is unexpected, it raises real debt burdens making it harder for the economy to grow out of debt.

On the surface this seems like a statement of the obvious: low inflation or deflation makes your debts more difficult to pay off.

However, it is only when you take this a step further and realize that he is in fact talking about the bond bubble in Europe that you realize just why he is terrified.

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Remember:

  • Europe’s entire banking system is leveraged at 26 to 1. At these levels even a 4% drop in asset values (read BONDS) renders the banks insolvent.
  • Due to their massive welfare programs, most EU countries have real debt to GDP ratios well north of 300%. Even Germany is above 200%!
  • No major bank or country has used the post-crisis period (2012 to present) or lower yields to deal with their structural debt problems.

Moreover, as Draghi has found, despite three NIRP cuts and €1 trillion in QE, unexpected low inflation continues to be a REAL problem for the EU. Indeed, it just broke into negative territory again!

euro-area-inflation-cpi

This is why Dragh is so concerned with “unexpected” low inflation… because he EXPECTED inflation to explode higher due to his monetary policies and instead it’s barely flatlining!

Thus, in the last two weeks, we have had TWO major Central Bank heads confess their deepest fears… namely that they do not have the monetary tools to fix their respective financial systems’ problems.

Again, the markets have yet to fully realize this. But this is as close as you can get to a Central Banker ringing a bell at the TOP.

Another Crisis is coming. Smart investors are preparing now.

If you’re an investor who wants to increase your wealth dramatically, then you NEED to take out a trial subscription to our paid premium investment newsletter Private Wealth Advisory.

Private Wealth Advisory is a WEEKLY investment newsletter with an incredible track record.

Last week we closed three more winners including gains of 36%, 69% and a whopping 118% bringing us to 75 straight winning trades.

And throughout the last 14 months, we’ve not closed a SINGLE loser.

In fact, I’m so confident in my ability to pick winning investments that I’ll give you 30 days to try out Private Wealth Advisory for just 98 CENTS

If you have not seen significant returns from Private Wealth Advisory during those 30 days, just drop us a line and we’ll cancel your subscription with no additional charges.

All the reports you download are yours to keep, free of charge.

To take out a $0.98, 30-day trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

“Somebody” Stepped In to Prop Up Stocks Yesterday

At this point the manipulations are getting ridiculous.

“Someone” decided to step in a prop up stocks yesterday. How do we know it was a market prop and not real investors?

There were several “tells.”

They were:

  • The jump in stocks was based on a sudden move in one of the key asset classes the PPT are using to prop up the markets (they are: Oil, the VIX and Yen).
  • The price action was sudden and vertical: neither are the hallmarks of actual buyers.
  • The trading session differed dramatically from recent other sessions.

Regarding #1, as everyone knows, the majority of market action today is controlled by trading algorithms.

These trading algorithms operate based on correlations between asset classes. Currently two of the biggest correlations are Oil (a direct correlation, meaning when Oil rallies, algorithms buy stocks) and the VIX (an inverse correlation meaning when the VIX falls, algorithms buy stocks).

Yesterday, Oil staged a MASSIVE 5% intraday price move on the fact inventories rose less than expected. Yes, a 5% price move based on a single secondary data point (inventories are near record highs).

oil

This was a clear manipulation as evinced by the fact that Oil slid for the rest of the day following the price move. Real buyers buying Oil based on perceived value would have maintained the price. Instead we had a vertical move followed by pronounced weakness.

This spike in Oil was what triggered the first “stock buying panic” from trading algorithms. In a matter of minutes around 11:15 AM, stocks exploded higher by almost 1% based on nothing other than the move in Oil.

This wasn’t the end of the manipulation either. There were two other instances in which stocks went vertical on NO NEWS.

sc-3

How do we know these were interventions and not the products of real buyers?

Real buyers do not suddenly buy billions of dollars worth of futures contracts based on spurious news releases. Real investors use professional traders or algorithms to open positions in a careful manner so as not to boost prices.

After all, if the asset you are trying to buy on the cheap explodes higher the value is gone.

Compare that to yesterday’s price action where stocks staged an intraday rally of 2% with the bulk of the action coming in three near vertical ramp jobs, the first of which was triggered by an obvious intervention in Oil.

The financial media will claim the above analysis is conspiracy theory and that yesterday was the result of real buyers. This is bunk. Consider stocks’ price actions over the previous four trading sessions. Every day stocks opened up or down and then basically flat-lined for the rest of the session.

Yesterday’s session stands out like a sore thumb.

sc-1

In short… yesterday stocks exploded higher, staging an intraday rally of 2% on no news other than a secondary data point in the Oil market. Either someone panic-bought at three separate instances buying billions of Dollars worth of futures contracts or this was an intervention.

Based on the above, I’m going with the latter.

The intervention may have bought some time but the trend is now down. Stocks have taken out their bull market trendline going back to 2009. The bull market is over.

sc-4

Another Crisis is coming. Smart investors are preparing now.

If you’re an investor who wants to increase your wealth dramatically, then you NEED to take out a trial subscription to our paid premium investment newsletter Private Wealth Advisory.

Private Wealth Advisory is a WEEKLY investment newsletter with an incredible track record.

Last week we closed three more winners including gains of 36%, 69% and a whopping 118% bringing us to 75 straight winning trades.

And throughout the last 14 months, we’ve not closed a SINGLE loser.

In fact, I’m so confident in my ability to pick winning investments that I’ll give you 30 days to try out Private Wealth Advisory for just 98 CENTS

If you have not seen significant returns from Private Wealth Advisory during those 30 days, just drop us a line and we’ll cancel your subscription with no additional charges.

All the reports you download are yours to keep, free of charge.

To take out a $0.98, 30-day trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

The Fed is Working to Implement NIRP

The Fed Vice-Chair has begun laying the groundwork for NIRP.

The US Federal Reserve is obsessed with market reactions to its policies. Because of this, anytime the Fed plans to announce a major change in policy, it preps the markets via numerous leaks and hints… oftentimes for months in advance.

An excellent example of this concerns the Fed’s decision to taper QE back in 2013.

At that time, the Fed had been engaging in two open ended-QE programs… programs that had been running for over six months.

Rather than simply beginning to taper the programs, then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, hinted that the Fed was contemplating a taper in June.

The markets reacted sharply with bond yields rising.

The Fed then spent six months allowing the market to get used to the idea of a taper, before the actual taper finally began in December 2013.

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Put another way, the Fed gave the markets a full six months to adjust to a change in policy, before actually implementing said change. This only highlights just how focused the Fed is on market reactions to its policies.

In the simplest of terms: the Fed will NEVER surprise the market. This is particularly true now that the Fed is in the political cross hairs due to ample evidence showing its policies have increased wealth inequality.

If the Fed is planning on something new, particularly something that might have political repercussions, we’ll see numerous hints and suggestions well before the actual policy is unveiled.

With that in mind, we need to consider that the Fed is now actively engaged in a campaign to prep the markets for Negative Interest Rate Policy or NIRP.

  1. First we find that a Fed official hinted at NIRP during the Fed’s September 2015 meeting.
  1. Then, in early October 2015, NY Fed President Bill Dudley stating that negative rates were “an option” though not a “relevant conversation” right now.
  1. This statement was followed up by former Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota stating point blank that the Fed should “consider negative rates.”

Kocherlakota is a former Fed President and so is more aggressive with his campaign.

Fast forward to yesterday and…

  1. Now Fed Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer stated in a Bloomberg interview that NIRP is working “more than I expected.”

Carefully note the word choice here. Fischer didn’t say he was “surprised” to see NIRP working; his phrasing implies that he “expected” NIRP to work. The surprise element is just how well it’s working.

It is one thing for Fed uber-doves or former Fed President to promote an extremely aggressive scheme; it’s entirely something else for the Fed VICE-CHAIR to do so.

Fischer is the current Vice-Chair for the Fed (formerly this position was held by Janet Yellen). As such, he is the most likely candidate for future Fed Chair when Yellen’s term ends in February 2018.

Previously, the Fed had never once hinted at or discussed NIRP during its policy meetings. Then, in the span of three weeks, an anonymous Fed official state that he or she believes NIRP is coming to the US, followed by two highly visible Presidents suggesting NIRP for consideration, and now the current Fed Vice Chair (and most likely candidate for future Fed Chair) has stated that NIRP is “working more than I expected.”

NIRP WILL BE COMING TO THE US.

This is simply part of the Fed’s larger War on Cash.

For six years straight, the Fed has been trying to “trash” cash.

First it cut interest rates to zero… making it so that savings deposits produced almost nothing in the way of interest income. Consider that at current rates, a retiree with $1 million in savings earns a measly $2,500 per year in interest income.

The Fed’s hope was that by making it painful for savers to sit in cash, said savers would move into risk assets such as bonds and stocks. This has worked in that stocks are now in one of, if not THE biggest bubbles in history… while bonds are trading at yields never before seen outside of wartime.

However, the Fed overlooked two outlets for investors who didn’t want to be forced into risk. They are: Gold bullion and physical cash.

The Fed has been dealing with bullion via clear manipulation of prices for years (that’s an article for another time). And now it is moving to make physical cash obsolete.

If you’re an investor who wants to increase your wealth dramatically, then you NEED to take out a trial subscription to our paid premium investment newsletter Private Wealth Advisory.

Private Wealth Advisory is a WEEKLY investment newsletter with an incredible track record.

Last week we closed three more winners including gains of 36%, 69% and a whopping 118% bringing us to 75 straight winning trades.

And throughout the last 14 months, we’ve not closed a SINGLE loser.

In fact, I’m so confident in my ability to pick winning investments that I’ll give you 30 days to try out Private Wealth Advisory for just 98 CENTS

If you have not seen significant returns from Private Wealth Advisory during those 30 days, just drop us a line and we’ll cancel your subscription with no additional charges.

All the reports you download are yours to keep, free of charge.

To take out a $0.98, 30-day trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

Gold Has Been a Better Investment Than Stocks For 50 Years

Almost every other day I read an article telling me that owning Gold is dumb or that Gold is doomed as an investment.

These articles would be useful or insightful if they weren’t based on “analysis” that is either misleading or downright wrong.

To whit…

Gold has absolutely CRUSHED stocks since 2000. During this period we’ve had two of the biggest stock market bubbles in history. Yet Gold’s performance has made stocks’ performance look like a flat-line.

Gold2

H/T Bill King.

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Put another way, Gold has demolished stocks during a period in which the Fed was printing money by the trillions of Dollars. The Fed and other Central Banks may want to boost stocks, but Gold is the biggest beneficiary from their insanity.

However, Gold’s long-term outperformance of stocks is even more incredible.

Most “analysis” of Gold as an investment runs back for 100 years or so. However, this analysis is deceptive as Gold was pegged to major currencies up until 1967.

Of course, the geniuses in the media overlook this little tidbit because once major countries began to de-peg their currencies from Gold in 1967, the precious metal has absolutely DEMOLISHED stocks in terms of performance.

Gold2

H/T Bill King

Since 1967, Gold has risen 33 fold. The S&P 500 is up just 21 Fold. Had you ignored stocks completely and simply bought Gold you would be significantly RICHER.

If you’re an investor who wants to increase your wealth dramatically, then you NEED to take out a trial subscription to our paid premium investment newsletter Private Wealth Advisory.

Private Wealth Advisory is a WEEKLY investment newsletter with an incredible track record.

Last week we closed three more winners including gains of 36%, 69% and a whopping 118% bringing us to 75 straight winning trades.

And throughout the last 14 months, we’ve not closed a SINGLE loser.

In fact, I’m so confident in my ability to pick winning investments that I’ll give you 30 days to try out Private Wealth Advisory for just 98 CENTS

If you have not seen significant returns from Private Wealth Advisory during those 30 days, just drop us a line and we’ll cancel your subscription with no additional charges.

All the reports you download are yours to keep, free of charge.

To take out a $0.98, 30-day trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

Expect ALL Assets to Follow Oil’s Lead= 60% Drop or More

It would be a lot easier to be bullish today if the entire financial system wasn’t based on fraud and BS.

Every explanation we see regarding the bull market in stocks is really just a cover for the fact that Central Banks spent $14 trillion propping up the bond bubble.

All claims that stocks went up because of the “recovery” or because of “expansion” or whatever really translate to “stocks went up because TRILLIONS in liquidity went into the system and a lot of it ended up in stocks.”

Here’s the reality of things.

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Bonds, particularly sovereign bonds, are the bedrock of the financial system. US Treasuries are considered the “risk free” rate of return. Every other asset in the world is valued based on its perceived risk relative to Treasuries.

However, Treasuries have become horribly mispriced because the Fed and other Central Banks have tried to corner the global sovereign bond market.

When sovereign bonds are mispriced, EVERYTHING is mispriced. This includes US stocks, emerging market stocks, commodities, corporate bonds, municipal bonds, etc.

This worked for about five to six years until the dark economic realities that Central Banks attempted to paper over began to appear.

In this particular instance, the economic realities concerned the fact that China, which was thought to have pulled the world out of recession in 2009, (courtesy of trillions of Dollars in credit expansion), was in fact an enormous debt Ponzi scheme dressed up as a “miracle.”

Indeed, you can think of China as the poster child for the Keynesian believe that you can print your way to growth. The only way China pulled off the fraud for so long was by publishing fictitious economic numbers.

Speaking of which, as far back as 2007, current First Vice Premiere of China, Li Keqiang, admitted to the US ambassador to China that ALL Chinese data, outside of electricity consumption, railroad cargo, and bank lending is for “reference only.”

However, it took until 2014 for a critical mass of investors to discover this for themselves. When they did, economically sensitive commodities such as Oil and Copper imploded.

Indeed, looking at the chart, one could argue that the “recovery” ended in 2011. But it wasn’t really until 2014 or so that the economic realities of NO growth (particularly in China) became obvious and both commodities collapsed.

sc_0

Anyone who claims that the carnage is isolated to Energy is not paying attention. We will repeat what we said earlier: when sovereign bonds are mispriced, EVERYTHING is mispriced. This includes US stocks, emerging market stocks, commodities, corporate bonds, municipal bonds, etc.

Oil and Copper are just the tip of the iceberg, Globally, the financial system is 30% more leveraged than it was in 2008. And this time around Central Banks have already used up 90%+ of their ammo papering over the 2008 mess.

Another Crisis is brewing…

If you’re an investor who wants to increase your wealth dramatically, then you NEED to take out a trial subscription to our paid premium investment newsletter Private Wealth Advisory.

Private Wealth Advisory is a WEEKLY investment newsletter with an incredible track record.

Last week we closed three more winners including gains of 36%, 69% and a whopping 118% bringing us to 75 straight winning trades.

And throughout the last 14 months, we’ve not closed a SINGLE loser.

In fact, I’m so confident in my ability to pick winning investments that I’ll give you 30 days to try out Private Wealth Advisory for just 98 CENTS

If you have not seen significant returns from Private Wealth Advisory during those 30 days, just drop us a line and we’ll cancel your subscription with no additional charges.

All the reports you download are yours to keep, free of charge.

To take out a $0.98, 30-day trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

NIRP Was a Dud. Are Central Banks Out of Ammo?

A growing number of investors are beginning to realize that Central Banks are effectively out of ammo (for now).

Last week I noted that the Bank of Japan’s implementation of NIRP only generated a brief rally in Japanese stocks. That rally has since been obliterated as Japanese stocks collapsed 10%.

sc

This collapse has finally prompted the mainstream financial media to question NIRP. It’s a shame no one bothered to question NIRP, ZIRP, and QE when the markets were still rallying!

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Over the same time period, the S&P 500 was DOWN.

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HSBC: Sweden’s Experience Shows Negative Rates Haven’t Worked

The ‘Monetary Madness’ That’s Pushing Japanese Bonds Negative

Negative Interest Rates Can Hurt Global Stocks

COLUMN-Banks drink from NIRP’s poisoned well: James Saft

H/T Bill King for noting the change in media tone.

I point this out because it indicates that we are at a critical turning point. Between 2009 and last week, the financial media rarely questioned Central Bank policy, if ever.

The fact that we are now seeing numerous articles criticizing NIRP and Central Banks, tells us that psychologically a significant shift has taken place. That shift will see growing criticism of Central Banks along with an increase in bearish sentiment amongst investors.

This shift was also evident in today’s Q&A session between Fed Chair Janet Yellen and Congress. For the first time in recent memory, a Fed Chair was grilled on the legality and legitimacy of Fed Policy by members of Congress (with the exception of former Congressman Ron Paul).

Does this mean that Central Banks will simply “give up and go home?”

Yes and No.

For certain, the bar has been set much higher for Central Bank monetary policy. Interest rate cuts alone won’t cut it anymore. The ECB has cut rates into NIRP three times. None of these cuts produced a significant stock rally. Only QE did.

2

Similarly, the Bank of Japan has obtained its best results with QE programs. As I noted previously NIRP barely even bought 24 hours’ worth of market gains.

3

In simple terms, unless a new large-scale QE program or direct money printing is announced, markets are unlikely to react strongly to new monetary policy from Central Banks.

Another Crisis is coming. Smart investors are preparing now.

If you’re an investor who wants to increase your wealth dramatically, then you NEED to take out a trial subscription to our paid premium investment newsletter Private Wealth Advisory.

Private Wealth Advisory is a WEEKLY investment newsletter with an incredible track record.

Last week we closed three more winners including gains of 36%, 69% and a whopping 118% bringing us to 75 straight winning trades. 

And throughout the last 14 months, we’ve not closed a SINGLE loser.

With a track record like this, we’re getting a LOT of attention, so we’re going to be raising the price of a Private Wealth Advisory in the next few weeks.

However, you can try it right now for 30 days for just 98 cents… but you better move fast, because these slots are selling out!!!

To lock in a $0.98, 30-day trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Phoenix Capital Research

 

 

 

 

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

Read This and Prepare Accordingly

Quietly as an aside in a speech, the Head of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, confessed that QE has little if any impact on GDP growth.

I touched upon this issue previously, but I want to reiterate it here because it is absolutely ASTOUNDING.

The Bank of Japan is the global leader for monetary policy. Indeed, it has been experimenting with severe monetary policy for DECADES.

The Fed first implemented ZIRP and QE in 2008. The ECB first cut rates to ZIRP in 2014 and implemented QE in 2015.

The Bank of Japan began easing back in the early ‘90s. It implemented ZIRP for the first time in 1999. Thus it has been maintaining ZIRP for the better part of two decades.

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The Bank of Japan began easing back in the early ‘90s. It implemented ZIRP for the first time in 1999. Thus it has been maintaining ZIRP for the better part of two decades.

The Bank of Japan also launched its first QE program in 2001. And it never looked back. Currently its balance sheet is over $3 trillion, equal to over 65% of Japan’s GDP.

To give some perspective on this, the Fed’s balance sheet even after its $3.5 trillion expansion is a mere 25% of US GDP. For the Fed to approach a balance sheet expansion equal to that of Japan it would need to grow its balance sheet to OVER $11 TRILLION!

In short, the Bank of Japan is THE leader for Central Banker monetary policy.

This is why the Head of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda’s admission that Japan has a GDP “potential” of 0.5% of less is such a huge deal. It is effectively the head of the single most aggressive Central Bank on the planet admitting that no matter how much QE or ZIRP he employs there is a definitive ceiling (a low one at that) for GDP growth.

Imagine if an athlete stated that no matter how much he or she trained there would be next to no improvement… or better yet, imagine if a Doctor told you that no matter how much medicine or treatment you took, you would not recover from an illness?

That is what Kuroda admitted regarding Central Bank monetary policy.

Frankly, I am shocked he said it. But then again, he and his bank are over two decades into the biggest monetary failure in history (despite 16 years of ZIRP and 15 years of QE, Japan’s growth rate continues to trend down).

I’m not surprised that the markets haven’t reacted to this. It’s so incredible that virtually no one caught on. And truth be told, it’s going to take the markets months to truly “get” Kuroda’s confession.  Once this happens, the REAL Crisis (the crisis of faith in Central Banks) will have officially begun.

If you’re an investor who wants to increase your wealth dramatically, then you NEED to take out a trial subscription to our paid premium investment newsletter Private Wealth Advisory.

Private Wealth Advisory is a WEEKLY investment newsletter with an incredible track record.

Last week we closed three more winners including gains of 36%, 69% and a whopping 118% bringing us to 75 straight winning trades. 

And throughout the last 14 months, we’ve not closed a SINGLE loser.

With a track record like this, we’re getting a LOT of attention, so we’re going to be raising the price of a Private Wealth Advisory in the next few weeks.

However, you can try it right now for 30 days for just 98 cents… but you better move fast, because these slots are selling out!!!

To lock in a $0.98, 30-day trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

Japan is Officially in the End Game

For over six years, the markets have been moving based on Central Banker actions and words.

The first phase (2009 to 2013) was dominated by action (ZIRP and QE).

The second phase (2013 to the present) was increasingly reliant on words (verbal intervention) as most Central Banks had by then used up 90% of their ammo.

As former Fed Chair Bernanke himself noted in his recent memoirs:

“Monetary policy is 98% talk and 2% action, especially when short term rates are near zero”

However, we are now reaching the point at which even actions AND words are losing their effect on the markets.

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That’s correct, with minimal risk, we are outperforming the S&P 500 by 25%… and the year only just started!

Our next goes out tomorrow morning… you can get it and THREE others for just 99 cents.

To take out a $0.99, 30 day trial subscription to THE CRISIS TRADER…

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On January 29 2016, the Bank of Japan introduced Negative Interest Rates or NIRP. The ensuing rally in the Nikkei lasted roughly 30 minutes before reversing all of its gains. It was only through concerted manipulation by the Bank of Japan that the Nikkei finished the day in the green.

Indeed, the rally was so weak that only three days later, the head of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda was already promising to engage in even more NIRP if needed. He stressed there was “no limit” to monetary easing measures.

Yes, this took place only a few days later.

So… the Bank of Japan launches NIRP for the first time in its history. And within THREE trading days is already promising to do MORE, going so far as to say that it has “no limit” on what it will try.

This is what it looks like when a Central Bank loses control= total desperation.

Bear in mind, the Bank of Japan has been at the forefront for ALL monetary policy for decades. The US Federal Reserve launched its first QE program in 2008. The European Central Bank launched its first QE program in 2015.

The Bank of Japan first launched QE back in 2001.

In short, the Bank of Japan has two decades of experience with QE AND ZIRP. It has launched the single largest QE program in history (an amount equal to over 20% of Japan’s GDP). And it has expanded its balance sheet to over 65% of Japan’s GDP.

In short, the Bank of Japan has gone “all in” to attempt to reflate its financial system. It has completely failed. And now it is so desperate that it is promising to do even MORE only three days after its latest monetary surprise.

The End Game for Central Banks has officially begun.

Another Crisis is coming. Smart investors are preparing now.

If you’re an investor who wants to increase your wealth dramatically, then you NEED to take out a trial subscription to our paid premium investment newsletter Private Wealth Advisory.

Private Wealth Advisory is a WEEKLY investment newsletter with an incredible track record.

Last week we closed three more winners including gains of 36%, 69% and a whopping 118% bringing us to 75 straight winning trades.

And throughout the last 14 months, we’ve not closed a SINGLE loser.

In fact, I’m so confident in my ability to pick winning investments that I’ll give you 30 days to try out Private Wealth Advisory for just 98 CENTS

If you have not seen significant returns from Private Wealth Advisory during those 30 days, just drop us a line and we’ll cancel your subscription with no additional charges.

All the reports you download are yours to keep, free of charge.

To take out a $0.98, 30-day trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Debt Bomb

Stocks Will be Breaking Below the 2009 Lows

Something absolutely astounding has happened.

Three weeks ago, the head of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda stated that Japan has a “potential growth rate of 0.5% or lower.”

By way of context, remember that the Bank of Japan has been at the forefront for ALL monetary policy for decades. The US Federal Reserve launched its first QE program in 2008. The European Central Bank launched its first QE program in 2015. The Bank of Japan first launched QE back in 2001.

In short, the Bank of Japan has two decades of experience with QE. Indeed, Japan is responsible for the single largest QE program in history, its “Shock and Awe” program launched in April 2014 which equaled over 25% of Japan’s GDP.

Which is why when Kuroda admitted that Japan’s GDP growth “potential” is limited to 0.5% or lower, he was implicitly admitting that QE cannot generate growth.

Remember, Central Bankers speak in half measures. They NEVER admit failure directly. Their primary job is to maintain confidence in the financial system even if it entails lying.

In Central Banker speak, Haruhiko Kuroda has admitted that there is a limit to potential GDP growth regardless of how much QE and Central Bank employs. He has admitted that Central Bankers might not have the tools required to generate growth.

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Even more that this, his actions SUPPORT this claim.

Indeed, recently the Bank of Japan announced that it would be implementing Negative Interest Rate Policy or NIRP.

This change in policy was incredible. But what’s even more incredible is the fact that the Bank of Japan did NOT increase its QE program when it announced NIRP.

Put another way, the head of the Bank of Japan announced that QE cannot generate GDP growth, and then DIDN’T increase the Bank of Japan’s QE program when it came time to announce a new policy.

In short, Haruhiko Kuroda’s actions are supporting his words.

This is the single most important development in the monetary world. The head of a MAJOR Central Bank announced that QE cannot create economic growth and then refused to increase his bank’s QE program.

As usual, the markets have yet to adjust. Eventually they will. When they do, the S&P 500 will be below its March 2009 lows.

GPC2116

Another Crisis is coming. Smart investors are preparing now.

If you’re an investor who wants to increase your wealth dramatically, then you NEED to take out a trial subscription to our paid premium investment newsletter Private Wealth Advisory.

Private Wealth Advisory is a WEEKLY investment newsletter with an incredible track record.

Last week we closed three more winners including gains of 36%, 69% and a whopping 118% bringing us to 75 straight winning trades.

And throughout the last 14 months, we’ve not closed a SINGLE loser.

In fact, I’m so confident in my ability to pick winning investments that I’ll give you 30 days to try out Private Wealth Advisory for just 98 CENTS

If you have not seen significant returns from Private Wealth Advisory during those 30 days, just drop us a line and we’ll cancel your subscription with no additional charges.

All the reports you download are yours to keep, free of charge.

To take out a $0.98, 30-day trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

NIRP Will Implode the $9 Trillion USD Carry Trade

Last month, the Bank of Japan implemented Negative Interest Rate Policy, or NIRP.

It is the second Central Bank to do so. The European Central Bank or ECB first went to NIRP in June 2014.

Thus, between Japan and Europe, over 20% of the world’s GDP is being managed by a Central Bank with NIRP.

More importantly, TWO major currencies in the world are now at NIRP while the US Dollar is at 0.5%.

Why does this matter?

Because hundreds of billions of Dollars in capital will be fleeing Japan to come to the US.

The US Dollar has been in a bull market since mid-2014. It is not coincidence that it started when the Euro first went to NIRP: the minute the EBC implemented NIRP money began fleeing the Euro and moving into the US Dollar.

GPC 12916

There are over $9 trillion in BORROWED US Dollars sloshing around the financial system.

ALL of this DEBT is at risk of blowing up when the US Dollar began to rally. And now that both Europe AND Japan are implementing NIRP, the US Dollar bull market is only going to get worse.

How bad?

The US Dollar has broken out of the single BIGGEST falling wedge pattern in history. You are looking at a 40 year chart pattern that has been broken.

GPC129162

This tells us that something absolutely MASSIVE is happening in the financial system right now. That “something” is the beginning of a $9 trillion debt implosion.

Another Crisis is coming. Smart investors are preparing now.

If you’re an investor who wants to increase your wealth dramatically, then you NEED to take out a trial subscription to our paid premium investment newsletter Private Wealth Advisory.

Private Wealth Advisory is a WEEKLY investment newsletter with an incredible track record.

Last week we closed three more winners including gains of 36%, 69% and a whopping 118% bringing us to 75 straight winning trades. 

And in the LAST FOURTEEN MONTHS, we’ve not closed a SINGLE loser.

In fact, I’m so confident in my ability to pick winning investments that I’ll give you 30 days to try out Private Wealth Advisory for just 98 CENTS

If you have not seen significant returns from Private Wealth Advisory during those 30 days, just drop us a line and we’ll cancel your subscription with no additional charges.

All the reports you download are yours to keep, free of charge.

To take out a $0.98, 30-day trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market
This is the Template For How Bail-Ins Will Come to the US

This is the Template For How Bail-Ins Will Come to the US

The War on Cash is now going into hyper-drive.

In the last 24 months, Canada, Cyprus, New Zealand, the US, the UK, and now Germany have all implemented legislation that would allow them to first FREEZE and then SEIZE bank assets during the next crisis.

These moves will be sold as “for the public’s good,” when they happen. But the reality is that it’s all about stopping people from moving their capital into actual physical cash.

The whole template for this was set out in Cyprus in 2013. The quick timeline for what happened in Cyprus is as follows:

  • June 25, 2012: Cyprus formally requests a bailout from the EU.
  • November 24, 2012: Cyprus announces it has reached an agreement with the EU the bailout process once Cyprus banks are examined by EU officials (ballpark estimate of capital needed is €17.5 billion).
  • February 25, 2013: Democratic Rally candidate Nicos Anastasiades wins Cypriot election defeating his opponent, an anti-austerity Communist.
  • March 16 2013: Cyprus announces the terms of its bail-in: a 6.75% confiscation of accounts under €100,000 and 9.9% for accounts larger than €100,000… a bank holiday is announced.
  • March 17 2013: emergency session of Parliament to vote on bailout/bail-in is postponed.
  • March 18 2013: Bank holiday extended until March 21 2013.
  • March 19 2013: Cyprus parliament rejects bail-in bill.
  • March 20 2013: Bank holiday extended until March 26 2013.
  • March 24 2013: Cash limits of €100 in withdrawals begin for largest banks in Cyprus.
  • March 25 2013: Bail-in deal agreed upon. Those depositors with over €100,000 either lose 40% of their money (Bank of Cyprus) or lose 60% (Laiki).

The most important thing I want you to focus on is how lies and propaganda were spread for months leading up to the collapse. Then in the space of a single weekend, the whole mess came unhinged and accounts were frozen.

One weekend. The process was not gradual. It was sudden and it was total: once it began in earnest, the banks were closed and you couldn’t get your money out (more on this in a moment).

There were no warnings that this was coming because everyone at the top of the financial food chain are highly incentivized to keep quiet about this. Central Banks, Bank CEOs, politicians… all of these people are focused primarily on maintaining CONFIDENCE in the system, NOT on fixing the system’s problems. Indeed, they cannot even openly discuss the system’s problems because it would quickly reveal that they are a primary cause of them.

For that reason, you will never and I repeat NEVER see a Central banker, Bank CEO, or politician admit openly what is happening in the financial system. Even middle managers and lower level employees won’t talk about it because A) they don’t know the truth concerning their institutions or B) they could be fired for warning others.

Please take a few minutes to digest what I’m telling you here. You will not be warned of the risks to your wealth by anyone in a position of power in the political financial hierarchy (with the exception of folks like Ron Paul who are usually marginalized by the media).

With that in mind, now is a good time to prepare for systemic risk. I cannot forecast precisely when things will get as ugly as they did in Cyprus for the financial system as a whole (no one can).

However, the clear signals are clear that the Feds are preparing for something big. The Treasury Department has ordered survival kits for the Big Banks’ employees… and the NY Fed is expanding its satellite office in Chicago in case something major happens that forces the market to collapse.

Indeed, we’ve uncovered a secret document outlining how the Feds plan to take hold of savings during the next round of the crisis to stop individuals from getting their money out.

We detail this paper and outline three investment strategies you can implement right now to protect your capital from this sinister plan in our Special Report

Survive the Fed’s War on Cash.

We are making 1,000 copies available for FREE the general public.

To pick up yours, swing by….

http://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/cash.html

 

Best Regards

Phoenix Capital Research

 

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

The Bond Bubble is Already Bursting… Here’s How We Know

As we outlined last week, the bursting of the bond bubble has begun.

CNBC and the financial media may spend 99% of their time talking about stocks, but bonds are the single most important issue for Central Banks.

When you consider everything in the context of the bond bubble, every Central Bank policy begins to make sense.

  • Central Banks cut interest rates to zero to make bond payments smaller.
  • Central Banks launched QE and other programs to put a floor beneath bond prices (when bond prices rise, bond yields fall and debt payments become smaller and easier to service).
  • Central Banks provided verbal intervention promising to do “more” or “whatever it takes” whenever bonds came close to ending their bull market.

None of these issues address what created the bond bubble in the first place. So global governments, corporations and others took advantage of low interest rates to issue… more debt.

In 2008 the bond bubble was $80 trillion in size. Today it’s $100 trillion. Put simply, the financial system is even more leveraged today than it was in 2008.

And the bond bubble just burst.

Today corporates are more leveraged than they were in 2007. Thus, the Bond Bubble not only encapsulates sovereign nations, but even individual companies. And now that bubble is bursting.

Companies have defaulted on $95bn worth of debt so far this year, with 2015 set to finish with the highest number of worldwide defaults since 2009, according to Standard & Poor’s.

The figures are the latest sign financial stress is beginning to rise for corporate borrowers, led by US oil and gas companies. The rising tide of defaults comes as investors reassess their exposure to companies that borrowed heavily in recent years against the backdrop of central bank policy suppressing interest rates…

Based on the number of defaults in the first three quarters of the year, S&P expects 109 defaults by year-end, the largest total since 268 borrowers ran into problems in 2009. There were only 60 defaults worldwide in 2014.

Source: Financial Times

The first sector to go belly up was energy, due to the collapse in Oil prices started mid-2014.

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Over the same time period, the S&P 500 DOWN 8%.

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However, as the below chart shows, this is much more than an Energy bust:

corporate defaults

This wave of defaults be increasing as the global economy weakens. Year over Year corporate sales growth is already flatlining and trending down.

YOY

Energy is the worst performer from a sales perspective, but it is hardly alone. Materials, Industrials, Technology, and Utilities are all posting negative growth resulting in overall negative sales growth for the S&P 500. And we’ve reached the point that even financial engineering via buybacks is failing to mask the fact that profits are falling:

Corp profit

As a result of this, money is flowing out of corporate bonds, particularly junk bonds. Last year (2015) was the first year since 2009 that Junk Bonds finished DOWN for the year.

That bubble has now clearly burst.

sc-1 copy

This is just the beginning. The bond bubble will take months to completely implode. And eventually it will consume even sovereign nations.

If you’re an investor who wants to increase your wealth dramatically, then you NEED to take out a trial subscription to our paid premium investment newsletter Private Wealth Advisory.

Private Wealth Advisory is a WEEKLY investment newsletter with an incredible track record.

Last week we closed three more winners including gains of 36%, 69% and a whopping 118% bringing us to 75 straight winning trades.

And throughout the last 14 months, we’ve not closed a SINGLE loser.

In fact, I’m so confident in my ability to pick winning investments that I’ll give you 30 days to try out Private Wealth Advisory for just 98 CENTS

If you have not seen significant returns from Private Wealth Advisory during those 30 days, just drop us a line and we’ll cancel your subscription with no additional charges.

All the reports you download are yours to keep, free of charge.

To take out a $0.98, 30-day trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Debt Bomb
Japan Has Officially Lost Control of Its Financial System

Japan Has Officially Lost Control of Its Financial System

For over six years, the markets have been moving based on Central Banker actions and words.

The first phase (2009 to 2013) was dominated by action (ZIRP and QE).

The second phase (2013 to the present) was increasingly reliant on words (verbal intervention) as most Central Banks had by then used up 90% of their ammo.

As former Fed Chair Bernanke himself noted in his recent memoirs:

“Monetary policy is 98% talk and 2% action, especially when short term rates are near zero”

However, we are now reaching the point at which even actions AND words are losing their effect on the markets.

———————————————————————–

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We have a success rate of 72% meaning we make money on more than seven out of 10 trades.

Even if you include ALL of our losers, we are up 17% year to date.

Over the same time period, the S&P 500 DOWN 8%.

That’s correct, with minimal risk, we are outperforming the S&P 500 by 25%… and the year only just started!

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———————————————————————–

Last Friday, the Bank of Japan introduced Negative Interest Rates or NIRP. The ensuing rally in the Nikkei lasted roughly 30 minutes before reversing all of its gains. It was only through concerted manipulation by the Bank of Japan that the Nikkei finished the day in the green.

Fast-forward to today, and the head of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda is already promising to engage in even more NIRP if needed. He stressed there was “no limit” to monetary easing measures.

Yes, this took place only a few days later.

So… the Bank of Japan launches NIRP for the first time in its history. And within THREE trading days is already promising to do MORE, going so far as to say that it has “no limit” on what it will try.

This is what it looks like when a Central Bank loses control= total desperation.

Bear in mind, the Bank of Japan has been at the forefront for ALL monetary policy for decades. The US Federal Reserve launched its first QE program in 2008. The European Central Bank launched its first QE program in 2015.

The Bank of Japan first launched QE back in 2001.

In short, the Bank of Japan has two decades of experience with QE AND ZIRP. It has launched the single largest QE program in history (an amount equal to over 20% of Japan’s GDP). And it has expanded its balance sheet to over 65% of Japan’s GDP.

In short, the Bank of Japan has gone “all in” to attempt to reflate its financial system. It has completely failed. And now it is so desperate that it is promising to do even MORE only three days after its latest monetary surprise.

The End Game for Central Banks has officially begun.

Another Crisis is coming. Smart investors are preparing now.

If you’re an investor who wants to increase your wealth dramatically, then you NEED to take out a trial subscription to our paid premium investment newsletter Private Wealth Advisory.

Private Wealth Advisory is a WEEKLY investment newsletter with an incredible track record.

Last week we closed three more winners including gains of 36%, 69% and a whopping 118% bringing us to 75 straight winning trades.

And throughout the last 14 months, we’ve not closed a SINGLE loser.

In fact, I’m so confident in my ability to pick winning investments that I’ll give you 30 days to try out Private Wealth Advisory for just 98 CENTS

If you have not seen significant returns from Private Wealth Advisory during those 30 days, just drop us a line and we’ll cancel your subscription with no additional charges.

All the reports you download are yours to keep, free of charge.

To take out a $0.98, 30-day trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market