Three weeks ago we called for stocks to revisit the February lows. At that time we were told we were “complete idiots” who were going to miss out on the next major Bull Run.

Instead this happened:

I don’t know about you, but that sure looks like a revisit of the February lows to me.

So where does this leave us now?

Stocks are probably about to begin a massive bull run. Not because fundamentally things have improved… but because sentiment is EXTREMELY bearish. In fact, according to some metrics, investors are even more bearish today than they were during BREXIT!?!?Whenever you see thhttp://gainspainscapital.com/is extreme a sentiment reading, taking the other side of the trade can be quite profitable. I expect we’re going to see a “blow off” top to complete this market run in the next 6 weeks.

If you’re looking for more investment insights as well as trade ideas, join our FREE e-letter, Gains Pains & Capital today. Swing by www.gainspainscapital.com to join today!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

As we noted in mid-2017, Big Tech is in BIG trouble.

There are multiple scandals brewing in this space. And the invasion/ selling of/ handing over of private data is one of the more minor ones.

That larger scandal concerns fraudulent online advertising.

Companies like Facebook and the like generate a significant portion of their sales from online advertising. In this business model, clients pay Facebook for online advertising space, the pricing of which is based on web traffic.

However, it now appears that robots not humans are generating a major percentage of web traffic. Put another way, advertising costs (what Facebook and others charge their clients for advertising space) are based on FRAUD.

Last September, a story broke that Facebook was overestimating viewing time on its video ads by as much as 60%-80%.

Big ad buyers and marketers are upset with Facebook Inc. after learning the tech giant vastly overestimated average viewing time for video ads on its platform for two years, according to people familiar with the situation.

Several weeks ago, Facebook disclosed in a post on its “Advertiser Help Center” that its metric for the average time users spent watching videos was artificially inflated because it was only factoring in video views of more than three seconds. The company said it was introducing a new metric to fix the problem…

Ad buying agency Publicis Media was told by Facebook that the earlier counting method likely overestimated average time spent watching videos by between 60% and 80%, according to a late August letter Publicis Media sent to clients that was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.

Source: Advfn

A few months later, the company revealed that it was overstating more than just video viewership.

The social-networking company conducted a broad review after discovering three months ago that it had overstated how long people watched videos on its site. The miscalculation wasn’t broadly disclosed, sparking some criticism of the social network. Now, Facebook says it has found four other instances where it miscalculated reach on its site, including overstating how long people spent reading Instant Articles and how many people interacted with businesses’ Facebook Pages.

Source: Bloomberg.

This situation has since worsened with those in charge of truly MASSIVE online advertising budgets noting the fraud is even worse than previously expected. Here is what consumer goods behemoth Unilever’s Chief of Marketing said last week:

With $8.4 billion in annual ad spend, the advertising industry pays attention when Unilever is unhappy. During the Cannes Lions Festival of Creativity, Unilever’s chief marketing and communications officer Keith Weed

outlined the three concerns that “keep him up at night.”

“If you don’t have your ad viewed, you are dead,” Weed told a Cannes audience on Wednesday.

He wants advertisers to “join up the dots in the digital industry.” As Weed sees it, this ecosystem is corrupted. Some 60% of traffic online is bots. “We want to buy eyeballs of viewers not bots,” says Weed. “If it is too good to be true, it probably is.”

Source: Media Post.

This is not merely a Facebook issue. Yahoo!, Google, and other Tech giants have been implicated in issues related to advertising. Given that the Tech giants generate a significant percentage of their revenues from online advertising, we have the makings of some SERIOUS stock price dislocations as this scandal gains traction.

For more investment insights, visit us at www.gainspainscapital.com

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

The big questions being tossed around Wall Street today are: why are markets such a mess? Why are we getting these wild swings?

The reality is that the markets are NOT a mess. These are actually normal healthy markets. Healthy markets move, sometimes a lot in a small span of time.

The real issue is that from ’09 until recently, the market was completely artificial because Central Banks cornered ALL risk by cornering the sovereign bond market.

Remember we are in a debt-based financial system today. Sovereign bonds are the bedrock of that system. They define the “risk free rate of return” against which ALL risk is priced. They’re also the senior most collateral owned by the banks to backstop their trading/ derivatives portfolios.

When Fed and other Central Banks cornered sovereign bonds via ZIRP (front end of bond market) and QE (long end of bond market) they forced EVERYTHING to reprice to ridiculously low levels of risk. This is why I coined the term the Everything Bubble in 2014. It’s also why I wrote the book on this subject.

This bubble is unlike any other bubble in history in that it is truly systemic, affecting every asset class Today you have a primary bubble (sovereign bonds) creating secondary bubbles (corporate debt, housing, stocks) and even tertiary bubbles (short vol/ risk parity fund/ passive investing).

It truly is the Everything Bubble.

As Central Banks begin to attempt to normalize policy, all of these will start blowing up in reverse order. The tertiary bubbles blew up in February when the short-volatility trade destroyed over 97% of its value in a matter of days.

Central Banks are now trying to manage to deflate secondary bubbles, particularly that of stocks, without causing a crisis.

Big picture: you’re going to see a LOT of volatility going forward. And we’re going to see absolute insanity in asset prices. The reason? Every historic correlation/ relationship has been messed up by Central Bank interventions.

Imagine a person who was a raging heroine addict and who contracted major illnesses during his addiction. Now imagine that person getting clean. Throughout the detox process all kinds of issues/ organ problems would develop as the body attempts to adjust to drug being removed.

THAT is the market today. This time is truly different but not in a good way. We’ve never had a coordinate Central Bank policy of creating bubbles in the bedrock of the financial system before. Given how badly Central Banks managed the Tech stock bubble and Housing Bubble, the outcome won’t be pretty.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s coming down the pike when the Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

The big questions being tossed around Wall Street today are: why are markets such a mess? Why are we getting these wild swings?

The reality is that the markets are NOT a mess. These are actually normal healthy markets. Healthy markets move, sometimes a lot in a small span of time.

The real issue is that from ’09 until recently, the market was completely artificial because Central Banks cornered ALL risk by cornering the sovereign bond market.

Remember we are in a debt-based financial system today. Sovereign bonds are the bedrock of that system. They define the “risk free rate of return” against which ALL risk is priced. They’re also the senior most collateral owned by the banks to backstop their trading/ derivatives portfolios.

When Fed and other Central Banks cornered sovereign bonds via ZIRP (front end of bond market) and QE (long end of bond market) they forced EVERYTHING to reprice to ridiculously low levels of risk. This is why I coined the term the Everything Bubble in 2014. It’s also why I wrote the book on this subject.

This bubble is unlike any other bubble in history in that it is truly systemic, affecting every asset class Today you have a primary bubble (sovereign bonds) creating secondary bubbles (corporate debt, housing, stocks) and even tertiary bubbles (short vol/ risk parity fund/ passive investing).

It truly is the Everything Bubble.

As Central Banks begin to attempt to normalize policy, all of these will start blowing up in reverse order. The tertiary bubbles blew up in February when the short-volatility trade destroyed over 97% of its value in a matter of days.

Central Banks are now trying to manage to deflate secondary bubbles, particularly that of stocks, without causing a crisis.

Big picture: you’re going to see a LOT of volatility going forward. And we’re going to see absolute insanity in asset prices. The reason? Every historic correlation/ relationship has been messed up by Central Bank interventions.

Imagine a person who was a raging heroine addict and who contracted major illnesses during his addiction. Now imagine that person getting clean. Throughout the detox process all kinds of issues/ organ problems would develop as the body attempts to adjust to drug being removed.

THAT is the market today. This time is truly different but not in a good way. We’ve never had a coordinate Central Bank policy of creating bubbles in the bedrock of the financial system before. Given how badly Central Banks managed the Tech stock bubble and Housing Bubble, the outcome won’t be pretty.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s coming down the pike when the Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Sentiment is now completely disconnected from reality.

Currently, sentiment suggests that stocks are in a raging bull market and will never fall. This sentiment is based on the fact that much of last year (2017) the US stock markets rose virtually non-stop.

However, that era is now OVER. And globally the markets are moving into “risk-off” mode.

Don’t believe me?

Consider that most global markets are in fact now DOWN for 2018.

That is not a typo.

Japan’s Nikkei, Germany’s DAX, Australia’s stock market, Canada’s stock market… ALL of them are in the red thus far in 2018.

The reason?

Globally the bond market is forcing ALL risk assets to be repriced.

As I’ve noted time and again, following 2008, Central Banks created a bubble in sovereign bonds. And because these bonds are the bedrock for the current financial system, when they did this they created a bubble in everything (what I call the “Everything Bubble”).

However, this bubble, is now beginning to burst. Bond yields are rising around the globe.

This is a MAJOR warning for stocks. Despite spending over $14 TRILLION trying to corner the bond markets, Central Banks are STILL beginning to lose control. The Everything Bubble is beginning to burst.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s coming down the pike when the Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Sentiment is now completely disconnected from reality.

Currently, sentiment suggests that stocks are in a raging bull market and will never fall. This sentiment is based on the fact that much of last year (2017) the US stock markets rose virtually non-stop.

However, that era is now OVER. And globally the markets are moving into “risk-off” mode.

Don’t believe me?

Consider that most global markets are in fact now DOWN for 2018.

That is not a typo.

Japan’s Nikkei, Germany’s DAX, Australia’s stock market, Canada’s stock market… ALL of them are in the red thus far in 2018.

The reason?

Globally the bond market is forcing ALL risk assets to be repriced.

As I’ve noted time and again, following 2008, Central Banks created a bubble in sovereign bonds. And because these bonds are the bedrock for the current financial system, when they did this they created a bubble in everything (what I call the “Everything Bubble”).

However, this bubble, is now beginning to burst. Bond yields are rising around the globe.

This is a MAJOR warning for stocks. Despite spending over $14 TRILLION trying to corner the bond markets, Central Banks are STILL beginning to lose control. The Everything Bubble is beginning to burst.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s coming down the pike when the Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Rates are rising once again.

Over 90% of investors focus almost exclusively on stocks. This is a mistake. The reality is that everything happening in stocks since 2008 has been the direct result of Central Banks creating a bubble in bonds.

Because our current financial system is debt-based in nature (meaning sovereign debt, not gold or some other asset is the bedrock of the financial system) when Central Banks did this, they effectively created a bubble in everything (including in stocks).

Put simply, it is BONDS, not stocks, that concern Central Banks the most. If stocks collapse, it’s a big deal for investors. If bonds collapse, it’s a big deal for entire countries/ the financial system.

With that in mind, consider that bonds have begun to collapse, with US Treasury bond yields rising sharply above their downtrends.

THIS is what triggered the February meltdown.

And by the look of things, we’re not done yet. Instead of falling hard, rates have found support and are preparing to breakout to the upside again.

This is a MAJOR warning for stocks. Despite spending over $14 TRILLION trying to corner the bond markets, Central Banks are STILL beginning to lose control. The Everything Bubble is beginning to burst.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s coming down the pike when the Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Rates are rising once again.

Over 90% of investors focus almost exclusively on stocks. This is a mistake. The reality is that everything happening in stocks since 2008 has been the direct result of Central Banks creating a bubble in bonds.

Because our current financial system is debt-based in nature (meaning sovereign debt, not gold or some other asset is the bedrock of the financial system) when Central Banks did this, they effectively created a bubble in everything (including in stocks).

Put simply, it is BONDS, not stocks, that concern Central Banks the most. If stocks collapse, it’s a big deal for investors. If bonds collapse, it’s a big deal for entire countries/ the financial system.

With that in mind, consider that bonds have begun to collapse, with US Treasury bond yields rising sharply above their downtrends.

THIS is what triggered the February meltdown.

And by the look of things, we’re not done yet. Instead of falling hard, rates have found support and are preparing to breakout to the upside again.

This is a MAJOR warning for stocks. Despite spending over $14 TRILLION trying to corner the bond markets, Central Banks are STILL beginning to lose control. The Everything Bubble is beginning to burst.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s coming down the pike when the Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Rates are rising once again.

Over 90% of investors focus almost exclusively on stocks. This is a mistake. The reality is that everything happening in stocks since 2008 has been the direct result of Central Banks creating a bubble in bonds.

Because our current financial system is debt-based in nature (meaning sovereign debt, not gold or some other asset is the bedrock of the financial system) when Central Banks did this, they effectively created a bubble in everything (including in stocks).

Put simply, it is BONDS, not stocks, that concern Central Banks the most. If stocks collapse, it’s a big deal for investors. If bonds collapse, it’s a big deal for entire countries/ the financial system.

With that in mind, consider that bonds have begun to collapse, with US Treasury bond yields rising sharply above their downtrends.

THIS is what triggered the February meltdown.

And by the look of things, we’re not done yet. Instead of falling hard, rates have found support and are preparing to breakout to the upside again.

This is a MAJOR warning for stocks. Despite spending over $14 TRILLION trying to corner the bond markets, Central Banks are STILL beginning to lose control. The Everything Bubble is beginning to burst.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s coming down the pike when the Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

The insanity of Central Bankers knows no bounds.

The latest indication of just how far “down the rabbit hole” the financial world has gone comes from Japan where it was announced that the Bank of Japan bought 75% of Japanese Government Debt issuance in FY17.

That is not a typo. Japan’s Central Bank bought $3 out of every $4 in debt Japan issued in fiscal year 2017. And it now owns 40% of Japan’s total debt outstanding.

Things have gotten so out of control that on Tuesday this week not a single 10-Year Japanese Government Bond was traded. Put another way, the daily volume on the 10-Year Japanese Government Bond was ZERO for an entire day.

There’s an expression for this kind of investment behavior: it’s called “cornering the market.”

Astonishingly, the BoJ is STILL beginning to lose control of its bond market. Currently the BoJ is targeting a 0% yield on the 10-Year Japanese Government Bond. Despite this, the yield on the 10-Year Japanese Government Bond has remained above this level for the better part of the last year.

Japan is not alone here. Globally bond yields are rising in most of the major debt markets including Germany, the UK, and the US.

Put another way, despite spending over $14 TRILLION trying to corner the bond markets, Central Banks are STILL beginning to lose control. The Everything Bubble is beginning to burst.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s coming down the pike when the Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

The insanity of Central Bankers knows no bounds.

The latest indication of just how far “down the rabbit hole” the financial world has gone comes from Japan where it was announced that the Bank of Japan bought 75% of Japanese Government Debt issuance in FY17.

That is not a typo. Japan’s Central Bank bought $3 out of every $4 in debt Japan issued in fiscal year 2017. And it now owns 40% of Japan’s total debt outstanding.

Things have gotten so out of control that on Tuesday this week not a single 10-Year Japanese Government Bond was traded. Put another way, the daily volume on the 10-Year Japanese Government Bond was ZERO for an entire day.

There’s an expression for this kind of investment behavior: it’s called “cornering the market.”

Astonishingly, the BoJ is STILL beginning to lose control of its bond market. Currently the BoJ is targeting a 0% yield on the 10-Year Japanese Government Bond. Despite this, the yield on the 10-Year Japanese Government Bond has remained above this level for the better part of the last year.

Japan is not alone here. Globally bond yields are rising in most of the major debt markets including Germany, the UK, and the US.

Put another way, despite spending over $14 TRILLION trying to corner the bond markets, Central Banks are STILL beginning to lose control. The Everything Bubble is beginning to burst.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s coming down the pike when the Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research