Monthly Archives: September 2012

Where We Are and Where We’re Going (10-1-12)

Last week was options expiration week as well as the end of the Third Quarter. So hedge funds were highly incentivized to gun stocks and precious metals higher (hedge funds are currently mostly long stocks and precious metals) to game … Continue reading

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Proof Positive Than Central Banks and Central Planning Fail

Regarding the recent Central Bank coordinated intervention, the key take-away point is that the ECB and US Federal Reserve attempted “shock and awe” tactics with their latest announcements by throwing out words such as “unlimited” and “open-ended.” The implication here … Continue reading

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Small Business Owners Understand the Economy Better Than Our Fed Chairman

Since the Great Crisis began in 2007 the Fed/ Feds have done the following: Cutting interest rates from 5.25-0.25% (Sept ’07-today). The Bear Stearns deal/ taking on $30 billion in junk mortgages (Mar ’08). Opening various lending windows to investment … Continue reading

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There is No Engine For Global Growth Pt 3 (the US)

The following is excerpt from a recent issue of Private Wealth Advisory. In it I outline why the world is entering a stagflationary disaster. To find out more about Private Wealth Advisory and how it can help you crush the … Continue reading

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There is No Engine for Global Growth Pt 2 (Europe)

Yesterday we assessed how China will not longer be an engine for economic growth going forward. Today we look at Europe. The world continues to believe that Europe is somehow savable. The reality is Europe is in worse shape than … Continue reading

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There’s No Engine For Global Growth (China Edition)

I’ve been skeptical about China for some time. While I do believe China has made some serious economic progress as a country, I remain thoroughly convinced that ultimately its economic “miracle” will be much like that of the Soviet Union … Continue reading

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Forget About QE… I’m Worried About UC

Let’s just be blunt here. Inflation is back in a big way. It’s not going to show up in the official numbers, but if you’ve paid for gas or food or healthcare recently, you’ve no doubt noticed that: A)   Things … Continue reading

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It’s Time to Air Out Ben Bernanke’s Dirty Laundy

Now that the Fed has engaged in QE 3 (which is essentially QE infinite since it’s meant to run until things get where the Fed wants them), I decided to go back and count the recap the Fed/Feds’ interventions since … Continue reading

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Draghi and Bernanke’s Worst Nightmares Are About to Unfold

Ben Bernanke and Mario Draghi must be absolutely terrified. These two men, in the last two weeks, have both initiated open-ended bond buying programs. The purpose of these programs, aside from keeping insolvent banks in business, was to scare the … Continue reading

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Where We Are and Where We’re Going (Week of September 17, 2012)

On Thursday last week, the US Federal Reserve announced QE 3: a program through which it will purchase $40 billion in Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) every month going forward. Given the close proximity of this move to the European Central … Continue reading

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The Fed’s QE 3 Program: Short Term Thinking For Long-Term Pain

Yesterday the Fed announced QE 3: an open ended program through which the Fed will purchase $40 billion worth of Mortgage Backed Securities every month until it decides that the world is right again. The implications of this are severe. … Continue reading

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Graham Eats Humble Pie

For months I’ve predicted we wouldn’t see QE 3. It’s now clear I was wrong. The Fed just announced QE 3. And while the implications of this will not be positive for the cost of living in the US, or … Continue reading

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Where Would the S&P 500 Be Without Fed Intervention?

We’ve entered a truly dangerous environment in the financial markets. Economic fundamentals are deteriorating rapidly. Consider the US… By all counts, the latest ISM (a measure of manufacturing in the US) was a complete and total disaster. In August the … Continue reading

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What’s the Fed Going to Do?

Yesterday we worked through the illusion to the reality of the ECB’s “unlimited” bond purchases, the end result being that we discovered the ECB: 1)   Didn’t announce anything new 2)   Is implementing the same policies it’s tried twice before with … Continue reading

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Super Mario’s Big Bluff

The financial world has entered a new state of mania with the announcement by the ECB that it will engage in “unlimited” bond buying to maintain lower interest rates for trouble EU sovereigns. As you no doubt know, our firm’s … Continue reading

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The Next Round of the EU Implosion is at Our Doorstep

The world is breathlessly hoping that Central Banks will somehow save the day. Indeed, when you consider that the markets have rallied so dramatically based on a vague speech from ECB President Mario Draghi, you get a sense of just … Continue reading

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Three Charts to Watch for Signs of What’s to Come

So the Fed disappointed on Friday. I know that everyone in the mainstream financial media along with much of the blogosphere believe that the Fed left the door “wide open” for QE 3 or some other large scale monetary program … Continue reading

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Thoughts on a “too quiet” Labor Day

The stock market is closed today for Labor Day. A few thoughts on the preceding week: 1)   The US Federal Reserve disappointed in a big way during its annual Jackson Hole meeting. It was in 2010 that Fed Chairman Ben … Continue reading

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