Monthly Archives: January 2013

The Fed is Beginning to Splinter… What Comes Next?

The following is an excerpt from our most recent issue of Private Wealth Advisory. In it we outline a recent development on the Fed’s Board of Directors. The implications of this will be severe for all asset classes. To find … Continue reading

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China Just Threatened a Currency War If the Fed Doesn’t Stop Printing

The tension between Central Banks that we noted yesterday continues to worsen. This time it was China and the EU, not just Germany, that fired warning shots at the US Fed. A senior Chinese official said on Friday that the … Continue reading

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Germany Just Fired a Warning Shot at the Fed

Germany has the second largest Gold reserves in the world behind the US. Since the early ‘80s, it has stored the majority of these reserves with the NY Fed (45% vs. 13% in London, 11% in Paris and the remaining … Continue reading

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Is There Such a Thing as The Perfect Trade?

We’ve received a number of emails regarding the long-term performance of The Perfect Trade. Having already locked in a return on invested capital of 36% in 2013 so far, investors are curious how this newsletter has fared in the past. … Continue reading

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Is China an Economic Miracle or Government Sponsored Fraud? Pt 2

A few months ago, we asked, “is China an economic miracle or one giant government sponsored fraud?” Our views were the latter with corruption as one of the key driving forces for wealth creation and economic growth in China. Consider … Continue reading

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These Popular Delusions Could Cost Investors Fortunes in 2013

The markets are closed today in observance of Martin Luther King, Jr. day. With that in mind, we’re stepping back from our usual daily analysis of the markets to address the big picture for the investment landscape in 2013. The … Continue reading

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The Ticking Trillion Dollar Debt Bomb

Since the EU Crisis went into overdrive in 2010, EU politicians have largely resorted to political posturing rather than implementing any actual financial solutions to the EU’s debt and banking crisis. To clarify that statement, we view a “real solution” … Continue reading

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The Great Systemic Rig of 2012 is Ending

The following is an excerpt from a recent issue of Private Wealth Advisory. In it, we outline the ongoing stress in the EU banking system, particularly the issues of Spain and Greece, both of which have large banks with negative … Continue reading

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What Do German Central Bankers Know That We Don’t?

Ben Bernanke and the rest of the US Federal Reserve bet the farm that they could engage in countless monetary interventions, keep interest rates at zero, and print over $2 trillion in new money without damaging the US’s credibility. They … Continue reading

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Two of the Biggest Problems In the Financial System Will Hit in 2013

This week is options expiration week: the week in which various call and put positions will expire. Wall Street is notorious for using these weeks to gun the markets this way and that in order to insure that the greatest … Continue reading

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The Investment World is Missing the Single Most Critical Issue In China

The investment world is convinced that China is about to engage in another massive round of stimulus. After all, this is what China did in 2008 when its economy slowed, so surely this is what they’ll do now that the … Continue reading

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How and Why the US Could Default

Having gotten through the fiscal cliff debacle by the skin of its teeth (somehow passing a deal that both raises taxes AND the deficit), the US political class is now playing chicken with the debt ceiling. The media, as it … Continue reading

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T-Minus 30 Days Until The US Begins Defaulting

We’ve now have just a little over 30 days until US breaches its debt ceiling. We would have already done so, except Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner borrowed some $200 billion from emergency funds to buy a few weeks’ time (announcing … Continue reading

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And These Are the Folks Who Will Save the World?

As the fiscal cliff euphoria and start of the year buying fade, investors are waking up to the fact that fundamentally nothing was fixed in 2012. Indeed, once could easily argue that the fiscal cliff “deal” is a great metaphor … Continue reading

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Daily Market Commentary (1-7-13): The Biggest Gift Investors Have Received In a While

Having moved to the sidelines due to the uncertainty of the US Presidential election and the Fiscal Cliff negotiations (as well as the holidays), investors are beginning to creep back in the marketplace. And they’re in for a surprise. First … Continue reading

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Did the Fed Lie About QE 3 and 4?

It’s common belief that Bernanke and the Fed are printing $85 billion per month ($40 billion to buy Mortgage Backed Securities and $45 billion to buy Treasuries). After all, these are the policies that the Fed announced in September and … Continue reading

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Daily Market Commentary (1/3/2013): Greece and Spain’s Banking Systems Flash “Danger”

While the US continues to digest the details of the US Fiscal Cliff Deal (the only important item is that it does nothing to address our debt or deficit problems), the EU continues to proclaim the worst to be over… … Continue reading

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Daily Market Commentary (1-2-13): Deal or No Deal… Nothing Was Fixed

A month back I warned that the US political class was adopting the very same tactics employed by EU politicians in combating our growing economic/ financial problems. Those tactics are as follows: 1)   Stage a meeting/ talk 2)   Spread rumors … Continue reading

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