The following is an excerpt from a recent issue of Private Wealth Advisory.
We are now seeing clear signs that the US is moving back towards a recessionary territory.
The first quarter US GDP data showed the US economy growing at an annualized rate of just 2.5% (3.0% was expected).
The only reason growth was even this high was because the Government understated inflation, recording a GDP deflator of 1.2%. This is bizarre given that the “official” inflation data point, the Consumer Price Index or CPI, is currently pegged at 2.1%.
Had the GDP number been based on the CPI, first quarter GDP would have been just 1.63%. And had it used real inflationary data, it would have been even lower than that.
We get additional confirmation of a slowdown in the economy from corporate revenues.
Corporate profits can be manipulated in a variety of ways. This is why I tend to ignore profits when assessing the state of the economy. Revenues on the other hand cannot be fudged. Either money comes in the door or it doesn’t.
With that in mind, only 45% of companies in the S&P 500 have beaten revenue estimates for the first quarter of 2013. This is down from 66% in the fourth quarter of 2012. And it’s well below the average of 50% for the last five quarters.
We addressed the trend of missing revenue forecasts in older articles. That trend remains intact with recent revenue misses coming from:
- Proctor and Gamble
- Starbucks
- AT&T
- CB Richard Ellis
- Safeway
- American Express
- IBM
This does not bode well for the economy.
Taken as a whole, corporations in the S&P 500 are expected to see a decrease in revenues of 0.3% in 1Q13. Yet against this slowdown, analysts believe we’re going to see a 6% increase in revenues for this year! Unless the global economy absolutely erupts higher, the market is far too optimistic about the state of affairs in the world.
We get additional indications of a looming recession when we remove the “deflator” aspect of GDP entirely and simply look at nominal GDP change (not adjusted for inflation) on a year over year basis.
When you do this you get a clear picture of a looming recession. Every time the rate of change for nominal GDP breaks below 4, a recession hits. As you can see in Figure 1 below, we’ve just broken this level.
Against this economic slowdown, stocks are priced quite richly. There is a word for when markets are totally disconnected from reality: it’s a bubble.
Investors, take note… the financial system is sending us major warnings… If you are not already preparing for a potential market collapse, now is the time to be doing so.
I’ve been warning subscribers of my Private Wealth Advisory that we were heading for a dark period in the markets. I’ve outlined precisely how this will play out as well as which investments will profit from another bout of Deflation.
As I write this, all of them are SOARING. In fact we just locked in two gains of 28% and 21% in less than three weeks’ time on Tuesday.
Are you ready for another Collapse in the markets? Could your portfolio stomach another Crash? If not, take out a trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory and start protecting your hard earned wealth today!
We produced 72 straight winning trades (and not a SINGLE LOSER) during the first round of the EU Crisis. We’re now preparing for more carnage in the markets… having just seen another SIX trade winning streak…
To join us…
Best Regards,
Graham Summers
