Monthly Archives: June 2013

Today should be the peak of end of the quarter performance gaming. Stocks have rallied hard for three days. The financial media has seen this as indicating the worst is over. But the fact of the matter is that most … Continue reading →

The biggest single most important item in the GDP report yesterday was the collapse in disposable income for Americans. Most investors will focus on the drop in GDP growth for 1Q13 and view it as opening the door for the … Continue reading →

The markets continue their dead cat bounce while the economic data worsens. First quarter US GDP was revised down from an annual rate of 2.4% to 1.8%.  The drop was due to lower personal consumption expenditures than initially forecast. This … Continue reading →

The global Central Banks are in damage control mode. The big story here is China, which is fast approaching its “Lehman” moment with interbank liquidity drying up rapidly and overnight rates are soaring. As I’ve warned Private Wealth Advisory subscribers … Continue reading →

The markets are beginning what could in fact be an epic meltdown. China is on the verge of a “Lehman” moment as its shadow banking system implodes. China had pumped roughly $1.6 trillion in new credit (that’s 21% of GDP) … Continue reading →

The technical damage from yesterday’s bloodbath was severe. Spain, which lead the “Europe is saved” party from the lows last year has just taken out its trendline. So much for the “crisis is over” proclamations. We’re heading back down in … Continue reading →

The QE Infinite parade officially ended yesterday when Bernanke hinted at tapering QE later this year or in mid-2014. I first warned Private Wealth Advisory subscribers about this in mid-May writing, If Bernanke is going to step down (as hinted … Continue reading →

The Fed will announce its moves today at 2PM. There’s really no telling what will happen.  The markets have become truly schizophrenic. For instance, stocks continue to rally as though more QE is coming. However, Gold, which has lead stocks … Continue reading →

The big question on every investors’ lips today and tomorrow is: “will the Fed announce or hint at tapering QE?” Over the last two years, one of the biggest tools in the Fed’s arsenal has been verbal intervention: the act … Continue reading →

The markets are rallying today because Bernanke and the Fed meet on Wednesday and will announce their new policies (if any). Someone might want to explain to them that the Nikkei just collapsed in spite of Central Bank policy. The … Continue reading →

The markets in the US have entered a mania in which investors look for any and all excuses to push the markets higher. Case in point, yesterday Japan’s Nikkei fell 6%. This happened in spite of the fact the Bank … Continue reading →

Japan continues to implode. We’ve now taken out the trendline that supported this rally since November. Not a pretty chart. Certainly not a pretty chart for Central Bankers, who believe QE can drive stocks only up. After all, Japan’s Nikkei … Continue reading →

The Wall Street Journal ran an interesting article yesterday. It was about the ECB’s Outright Monetary Transactions or OMT program… the “unlimited” bond buying program the ECB announced last September and which supposedly “ended” the EU Crisis. Here’s the key … Continue reading →

Few analysts know or admit it, but the only thing that held Europe (and ultimately the financial system) together since May 2012 was the promise of unlimited bond purchases from the ECB. The reason this worked was because traders poured … Continue reading →

“Somebody” moved in to support stocks last week on Thursday. The 50-DMA has become the “line in the sand” on the S&P 500. Anytime the market has come close to breaching this level in the last few months, “someone” has … Continue reading →

Anyone looking for clues as to what’s coming our way in the markets need only look to Japan where the QE forever policy has finally hit the wall. Prior to the Prime Minister elections in September 2012, the Bank of … Continue reading →

More bad economic data was spilled yesterday. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics or BLS, we had a 3.8% decline in hourly compensation in the first quarter of 2013.  This is the single largest drop going back to 1947. … Continue reading →

Stocks are on borrowed time. The single item that has driven stock prices over the last four plus years (since the 2008 Crash) has been the Fed’s expansion of its balance sheet. David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff, depicted this fact … Continue reading →

As warned previously on these pages, the US is in a recession… again. The latest ISM reading came in at 49. Any reading below 50 is considered recessionary. And an ISM of 49 is the worst in four years. The … Continue reading →

The gaming of economic data continues in the US. On Friday it was announced that consumer confidence hit its highest level in nearly six years. Indeed, the last time we saw confidence in the economy as this reading was July … Continue reading →