Monthly Archives: June 2013

We’ve Passed #1, On #2… Next Up Comes the Big Drop

Today should be the peak of end of the quarter performance gaming. Stocks have rallied hard for three days. The financial media has seen this as indicating the worst is over. But the fact of the matter is that most … Continue reading

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Real Disposable Income is Falling at 2008 Rates

The biggest single most important item in the GDP report yesterday was the collapse in disposable income for Americans. Most investors will focus on the drop in GDP growth for 1Q13 and view it as opening the door for the … Continue reading

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The Single Largest Driver of the US Economy is About to Collapse

The markets continue their dead cat bounce while the economic data worsens. First quarter US GDP was revised down from an annual rate of 2.4% to 1.8%.  The drop was due to lower personal consumption expenditures than initially forecast. This … Continue reading

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China’s “Lehman” Moment Could Bring About Another 2008

The global Central Banks are in damage control mode. The big story here is China, which is fast approaching its “Lehman” moment with interbank liquidity drying up rapidly and overnight rates are soaring. As I’ve warned Private Wealth Advisory subscribers … Continue reading

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The Great Global Rig is Ending…Are You Prepared?

The markets are beginning what could in fact be an epic meltdown. China is on the verge of a “Lehman” moment as its shadow banking system implodes. China had pumped roughly $1.6 trillion in new credit (that’s 21% of GDP) … Continue reading

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Has the Great Crisis Finally Arrived?

The technical damage from yesterday’s bloodbath was severe. Spain, which lead the “Europe is saved” party from the lows last year has just taken out its trendline. So much for the “crisis is over” proclamations. We’re heading back down in … Continue reading

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The Bond Implosion Has Officially Begun

The QE Infinite parade officially ended yesterday when Bernanke hinted at tapering QE later this year or in mid-2014. I first warned Private Wealth Advisory subscribers about this in mid-May writing, If Bernanke is going to step down (as hinted … Continue reading

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The Only Thing Certain About Today’s Fed Meeting

The Fed will announce its moves today at 2PM. There’s really no telling what will happen.  The markets have become truly schizophrenic. For instance, stocks continue to rally as though more QE is coming. However, Gold, which has lead stocks … Continue reading

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What the Bond Market Says About the Likelihood of the Fed Tapering

The big question on every investors’ lips today and tomorrow is: “will the Fed announce or hint at tapering QE?” Over the last two years, one of the biggest tools in the Fed’s arsenal has been verbal intervention: the act … Continue reading

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Can Bernanke Keep the Rally Going?

The markets are rallying today because Bernanke and the Fed meet on Wednesday and will announce their new policies (if any). Someone might want to explain to them that the Nikkei just collapsed in spite of Central Bank policy. The … Continue reading

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The Bulls Ignore Japan’s Implosion and Pray for More Printing

The markets in the US have entered a mania in which investors look for any and all excuses to push the markets higher. Case in point, yesterday Japan’s Nikkei fell 6%. This happened in spite of the fact the Bank … Continue reading

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The Two Charts That Have Central Bankers Terrified

Japan continues to implode. We’ve now taken out the trendline that supported this rally since November. Not a pretty chart. Certainly not a pretty chart for Central Bankers, who believe QE can drive stocks only up. After all, Japan’s Nikkei … Continue reading

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The Ticking €34 Trillion Timebomb

The Wall Street Journal ran an interesting article yesterday. It was about the ECB’s Outright Monetary Transactions or OMT program… the “unlimited” bond buying program the ECB announced last September and which supposedly “ended” the EU Crisis. Here’s the key … Continue reading

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Did the ECB Mega Bailout Just Hit the Wall?

Few analysts know or admit it, but the only thing that held Europe (and ultimately the financial system) together since May 2012 was the promise of unlimited bond purchases from the ECB. The reason this worked was because traders poured … Continue reading

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“Somebody” Bought Stocks on Thursday Because “Somebody” is Terrified

“Somebody” moved in to support stocks last week on Thursday. The 50-DMA has become the “line in the sand” on the S&P 500. Anytime the market has come close to breaching this level in the last few months, “someone” has … Continue reading

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Japan Just Gave Us a Warning of What’s Coming Our Way

Anyone looking for clues as to what’s coming our way in the markets need only look to Japan where the QE forever policy has finally hit the wall. Prior to the Prime Minister elections in September 2012, the Bank of … Continue reading

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Stocks Are On the Edge of a Cliff

More bad economic data was spilled yesterday. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics or BLS, we had a 3.8% decline in hourly compensation in the first quarter of 2013.  This is the single largest drop going back to 1947. … Continue reading

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What Happens When the Market Loses Life Support?

Stocks are on borrowed time. The single item that has driven stock prices over the last four plus years (since the 2008 Crash) has been the Fed’s expansion of its balance sheet. David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff, depicted this fact … Continue reading

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It’s Official, the US is Back in Recession

As warned previously on these pages, the US is in a recession… again. The latest ISM reading came in at 49. Any reading below 50 is considered recessionary. And an ISM of 49 is the worst in four years. The … Continue reading

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Friday’s Drop Was Just a Hint Of What’s Coming

The gaming of economic data continues in the US. On Friday it was announced that consumer confidence hit its highest level in nearly six years. Indeed, the last time we saw confidence in the economy as this reading was July … Continue reading

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