Month: February 2017

Globally inflation is on the rise.

On Monday Spain reported a year over year 7.5% jump in its PPI reading (a measure of inflation). Take a look at that chart.

Spain is just the latest major economy to join the inflationary tide.

German also saw a recent spike in its PPI.

In the US, inflation is now well above the Fed’s target 2%, having ripped over 3% higher in the last six months alone.

This is much bigger than Trump or any single factor. After eight years of low interest rates and Trillions of Dollars in QE spent, global Central banks have finally unleashed inflation…

The big problem with this is that inflation is like ketchup in a bottle. It always takes longer to get achieve than you’d predict… but once it hits, you usually get more than you hoped for.

This is the sort of environment in which a major market event could happen. Over $100 trillion in bonds are at risk of entering a bear market if inflation REALLY takes hold.

And while the odds are low that we get an actual Crash… this environment is more conducive to Black Swan events than any other in the last seven years.

If you’re looking for active real time “buy” and “sell” alerts to help you make money from the markets I strongly urge you to take out a 98 cent trial to my Private Wealth Advisory newsletter.

Private Wealth Advisory is a weekly investment advisory that tells investors what stocks and ETFs to buy and sell… and when to do so.

Does it work?

A full 86% of our investments made money in the last 26 months. Yes, 86%, meaning we make money on more than 8 out of 10 closed positions.

Currently our portfolio is chock full of winners too, including gains of 10%, 12%, 15%, 25% even 33%.

Heck earlier this week, we just closed out an 18% winner this morning.

Best of all, you can explore Private Wealth Advisory  for 30 days for just $0.98.

To do so…

Click Here Now!

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

 

 

 

The single biggest story this morning is Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin pouring ice cold water on the market’s mania.

First and foremost, Mnunchin stated point blank that the Trump administration HOPES to implement tax reform by August.

Not two weeks from not. Not even two months from now. But AUGUST.

And that is their hope, not a hard deadline.

Then Mnunchin announced that there was “not much administration can do to affect growth in short term”.

For weeks we’ve been told by the financial media that 5% GDP growth is just around the corner… that the US has already entered an economic utopia… and that stocks are correct to be rallying to all –time highs based on this belief.

Here’s is Trumps’s #1 econ guy stating POINT BLANK that the administration cannot juice growth in the short-term.

And stocks have rallied to new all-time highs based on hope of tax reform, GDP growth of 5% and more.

This is the sort environment in which Crashes can happen.

And while the odds are low that we get an actual Crash… this environment is more conducive to Black Swan events than any other in the last seven years.

If you’re looking for active real time “buy” and “sell” alerts to help you make money from the markets I strongly urge you to take out a 98 cent trial to my Private Wealth Advisory newsletter.

Private Wealth Advisory is a weekly investment advisory that tells investors what stocks and ETFs to buy and sell… and when to do so.

Does it work?

A full 86% of our investments made money in the last 26 months. Yes, 86%, meaning we make money on more than 8 out of 10 closed positions.

Currently our portfolio is chock full of winners too, including gains of 10%, 12%, 15%, 25% even 33%.

Heck earlier this week, we just closed out an 18% winner this morning.

Best of all, you can explore Private Wealth Advisory  for 30 days for just $0.98.

To do so…

Click Here Now!

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

While the financial world continues to delight in Trump Mania, the US economy has rolled over into recession.

I realize this sounds completely insane. After all, stocks are at new all time highs and a full 61% of Americans view the economy as “strong.”

Unfortunately, this is perception, not reality. When it comes to the economy today, Americans are like the guy who hasn’t realized the party is over, and keeps dancing while others are already starting to leave.

Consider Government tax receipts. This is perhaps the single most objective economic metric on the planet. If the economy is growing, business are being started, jobs are being created, and more people and entities area paying taxes.

However, if the economy ISN’T growing, the growth rate of this metric quickly rolls over.

Feast your eyes on this. Tax receipts have turned negative (Year over Year) for the FIRST time since the financial crisis. And as you’ll note, this has NEVER happened outside of a recession in 40+ years.

Don’t let that little uptick fool you. This is a blip in multiyear downtrend (note tax receipts PEAKED in 2010 and have been trending lower ever since).

The last time this happened was RIGHT. BEFORE. THE. FINANCIAL. CRISIS.

You know what else happened back then?

Stocks had just hit new all-time highs, having become overbought and massively overextended from their long-term trendline.

Kind of like today.

This is the sort of environment in which Crashes happen.

And while the odds are low that we get an actual Crash… this environment is more conducive to Black Swan events than any other in the last seven years.

If you’re looking for active real time “buy” and “sell” alerts to help you make money from the markets I strongly urge you to take out a 98 cent trial to my Private Wealth Advisory newsletter.

Private Wealth Advisory is a weekly investment advisory that tells investors what stocks and ETFs to buy and sell… and when to do so.

Does it work?

A full 86% of our investments made money in the last 26 months. Yes, 86%, meaning we make money on more than 8 out of 10 closed positions.

Currently our portfolio is chock full of winners too, including gains of 10%, 12%, 15%, 25% even 33%.

Heck earlier this week, we just closed out an 18% winner this morning.

Best of all, you can explore Private Wealth Advisory  for 30 days for just $0.98.

To do so…

Click Here Now!

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

 

 

 

 

 

 

Those who lived through the ‘80s will undoubtedly remember the famous scene from the original Ghostbusters in which Bill Muray’s character goes to see Sigourney Weaver.

Unbeknownst to Murray, Weaver’s character has been possessed by a demonic spirit. And every time he states to her, “I want to talk to Dana” (the name of Weaver’s character in the movie), she responds, “There is no Dana, only ZUL!!!”

Today’s market is a bit like this, with stocks having been complete and utterly possessed by President Donald Trump.

In the last month, it’s become absolutely CLEAR that Trumps’ fiscal stimulus, tax proposals, and even Obamacare Repeal will not be passed soon… if at all.

Beyond this, GDP numbers are coming down. It is evident that the anticipated 5% GDP growth is not coming any time soon either… if at all.

And finally, earnings and other fundamentals are rolling over. Tax receipts and other unmassaged data points are indicating that the US is on the verge of, if not already in, a new recession.

But do stocks care?

Nope.

All they care about is the hype of Donald Trump. Hype… not reality.

All Trump has to do is tweet that something “HYUGE” is going to happen and stocks hit new all time highs.

This is not a critique of Trump, this is a critique of a market gone completely bonkers on hype and hope, with little to back it up.

This is the sort of environment in which Crashes happen.

And while the odds are low that we get an actual Crash… this environment is more conducive to Black Swan events than any other in the last seven years.

If you’re looking for active real time “buy” and “sell” alerts to help you make money from the markets I strongly urge you to take out a 98 cent trial to my Private Wealth Advisory newsletter.

Private Wealth Advisory is a weekly investment advisory that tells investors what stocks and ETFs to buy and sell… and when to do so.

Does it work?

A full 86% of our investments made money in the last 26 months. Yes, 86%, meaning we make money on more than 8 out of 10 closed positions.

Currently our portfolio is chock full of winners too, including gains of 10%, 12%, 15%, 25% even 33%.

Heck earlier this week, we just closed out an 18% winner this morning.

Best of all, you can explore Private Wealth Advisory  for 30 days for just $0.98.

To do so…

Click Here Now!

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

I keep pounding the table and screaming about inflation… but people still don’t get it.

Hopefully yesterday’s inflation data was a wake up call.

For those who missed, US wholesale inflation posted its largest monthly jump in four years yesterday. Core Producer Price Index rose 0.4%; only 0.2% was expected. And Fed Chair Janet Yellen blatantly hinted at another interest rate hike in March… despite clear evidence the US economy is rolling over.

If this doesn’t SCREAM “inflation” to you, nothing will.

The fact is that the Fed realizes it has let the inflation genie out of the bottle. The inflation rate is already well above the Fed’s desired target of 2%, having moved a total of 3% higher in the last 18 months.

Gold and Silver have already “figured it out.” They’re up 6% and 11% thus far year to date.

Look, the potential to see triple digit gains from inflation hedges is here.

If you’re looking for active real time “buy” and “sell” alerts to help you make money from the markets I strongly urge you to take out a 98 cent trial to my Private Wealth Advisory newsletter.

Private Wealth Advisory is a weekly investment advisory that tells investors what stocks and ETFs to buy and sell… and when to do so.

Does it work?

A full 86% of our investments made money in the last 26 months. Yes, 86%, meaning we make money on more than 8 out of 10 closed positions.

Currently our portfolio is chock full of winners too, including gains of 10%, 12%, 15%, 25% even 33%.

Heck earlier this week, we just closed out an 18% winner in just three days.

Best of all, you can explore Private Wealth Advisory  for 30 days for just $0.98.

To do so…

Click Here Now!

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

 

 

Janet Yellen continues to demonstrate that she is either profoundly ignorant or dishonest. Neither of those are positive qualities for a Fed Chair.

Having maintained interest rates at essentially ZERO for seven years during the Obama years, Yellen suddenly believes it would be “unwise” to wait too long to raise rates now.

It’s a bizarre claim, particularly when you consider:

• The US economy is limping along at best and entering a recession at worse (2016 GDP growth was a measly 1.9% and a the latest spate of data has all suggested a contraction is underway).

• The Fed owns some $2.4 trillion Treasuries, which would be negatively impacted by the Fed raising rates.

• There are over $555 TRILLION in interest-rate based derivatives floating around… which similarly would be negatively impacted by raising rates.

For the Fed to embark on an aggressive tightening cycle in the context of just one of these would be foolish… but when all three are in play? Either Janet Yellen is actively trying to sabotage the US economy for whatever reason or she has no remote understanding of economics (or possibly both).

Indeed, the whole notion of the US raising rates is particularly ridiculous when you compare the US’s economic data to that of Europe.

Europe is currently experiencing faster GDP growth and a more rapid acceleration of inflation and is engaging in a massive QE program.

Meanwhile, the US economy is barely growing and we’re supposed to be raising rates?

Again, this is nonsense. If Yellen persists in her folly and pushes for three rates hikes this year, she’ll unleash a stock market collapse at best and burst the US bond bubble at worst.

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Yet another “unmassaged” data point has shown that the US economy is rolling over.

If you’ve been reading me for a while you know that one of my biggest pet peeves is the fact that headline US economic data (GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, etc.) is massaged to the point of being fiction.

For this reason, in order to get a real read on the economy, you have to look for economic metrics that are unpopular enough that the beancounters don’t bother adjusting them.

Case in point, look at the latest employment trend for S&P 500 companies (H/T Sam Ro).

For the first time since the Great Recession, employment growth has turned negative at S&P 500 companies. Also note the divergence between this metric and the headline unemployment rate.

This is confirmed by tax receipts (another unmassaged data point). The argument here is simple: when employment is growing, more people are paying taxes and tax receipts rise. When employment is falling… tax receipts drop.

What is the above chart telling you?

The reality is that the “Trump trade” or the idea that the US economy is about to explode higher based on Trump taking office, is completely and utterly off-base.

At best any policies Trump implements will begin to have an effect 12 months from now. And those investors who are trading as though GDP growth of 5% is here now are about to get annihilated.

If you’re looking to profit from the REAL impact Trump’s Presidency will have on the market (and the massive opportunities this situation presents), we’ve put together a Special Investment Report outlining three investment strategies that will produce major returns as a result of Trump’s economic policies.

It’s titled How to Profit From the Trump Trade and we are giving away just 1,000 copies for free.

To pick up your copy, swing by

http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/trump.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

 

 

As we have repeatedly warned, anyone who is betting on the Trump Presidency unleashing a massive $USD bull market in the near future is going to get taken to the cleaners.

This has already begun…

One of the single most dangerous traps for traders to avoid is a “False Breakout.”

False breakouts are moves in which an asset “breaks out” of a formation, leading many to believe that the move is legitimate… then suddenly KA-BLAM, the move reverses violently.

See the $USD today. This looks more and more like a false breakout, which means YES, the $USD is going to sub’90s if not lower within 12 months.

Those who believe Trump wants the $USD above 100 are not paying attention. Similarly, those who believe that the Fed can and will raise rates three times in 2017 are missing the big picture.

NEITHER OF THOSE IS GOING TO HAPPEN. And if you’re investing based on them, you’re in for a LOT of pain.

If you’re looking to profit from the REAL impact Trump’s Presidency will have on the market (and the massive opportunities this situation presents), we’ve put together a Special Investment Report outlining three investment strategies that will produce major returns as a result of Trump’s economic policies.

It’s titled How to Profit From the Trump Trade and we are giving away just 1,000 copies for free.

To pick up your copy, swing by

http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/trump.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research