Month: January 2018

If you want evidence of the Endgame for Central Bankers, you need to look no further than yesterday’s Bank of Japan (BoJ) announcement.

In its simplest rendering, Haruhiko Kuroda, the head of the BoJ, stated that the Japanese Yen is effectively worthless to him.

In his news conference, Kuroda reiterated that changes to the bond-buying operations don’t imply shifts to its policy stance, adding that the BOJ’s primary objective is the yield curve on Japanese government bonds, not the volume of its asset purchases. Kuroda also suggested the yen’s recent move may have resulted from broad dollar weakness, particularly against the euro.

Source: Bloomberg

Put another way, as far as the head of the BoJ is concerned… it doesn’t matter how much currency he prints: tens of billions of yen, hundreds of billions of yen, even trillions of yen… all that matters is where Japanese bond yields are trading.

This is the literal textbook for Central Bankers around the world: devalue your currency in order to maintain the bond bubble.

I outlined all of this in my best-selling book The Everything Bubble: the Endgame For Central Bank Policy... but I have to admit even I was stunned to see the head of a major Central Bank state this explicitly… and in public.

But let’s be clear… shredding your currency will work for a while… but eventually doing this unleashes inflation.

And that’s when we reach the End Game for Central Banks.

Why?

Bonds trade based on inflation.

If inflation rises, so do bond yields.

When bond yields Rise, bond prices FALL.

And when bond prices FALL, the massive debt bubble begins to burst.

On that note, the yield on the most important bond in the world: the 10-Year Treasury, has already broken above its 20-year trendline.

The US is not alone… the yield on 10-Year German Bunds has also broken its downtrend.

Even Japan’s sovereign bonds are coming into the “inflationary” cross-hairs with yields on the 10-Year Japanese Government Bond just beginning to break about their long-term downtrend.

Globally the world has added over $60 trillion in debt since 2007… and all of this was based on interest rates that were close to or even below ZERO.

All of this is at risk of blowing up courtesy of this spike inflation.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s in terms of Fed Policy when The Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

If you want evidence of the Endgame for Central Bankers, you need to look no further than yesterday’s Bank of Japan (BoJ) announcement.

In its simplest rendering, Haruhiko Kuroda, the head of the BoJ, stated that the Japanese Yen is effectively worthless to him.

In his news conference, Kuroda reiterated that changes to the bond-buying operations don’t imply shifts to its policy stance, adding that the BOJ’s primary objective is the yield curve on Japanese government bonds, not the volume of its asset purchases. Kuroda also suggested the yen’s recent move may have resulted from broad dollar weakness, particularly against the euro.

Source: Bloomberg

Put another way, as far as the head of the BoJ is concerned… it doesn’t matter how much currency he prints: tens of billions of yen, hundreds of billions of yen, even trillions of yen… all that matters is where Japanese bond yields are trading.

This is the literal textbook for Central Bankers around the world: devalue your currency in order to maintain the bond bubble.

I outlined all of this in my best-selling book The Everything Bubble: the Endgame For Central Bank Policy... but I have to admit even I was stunned to see the head of a major Central Bank state this explicitly… and in public.

But let’s be clear… shredding your currency will work for a while… but eventually doing this unleashes inflation.

And that’s when we reach the End Game for Central Banks.

Why?

Bonds trade based on inflation.

If inflation rises, so do bond yields.

When bond yields Rise, bond prices FALL.

And when bond prices FALL, the massive debt bubble begins to burst.

On that note, the yield on the most important bond in the world: the 10-Year Treasury, has already broken above its 20-year trendline.

The US is not alone… the yield on 10-Year German Bunds has also broken its downtrend.

Even Japan’s sovereign bonds are coming into the “inflationary” cross-hairs with yields on the 10-Year Japanese Government Bond just beginning to break about their long-term downtrend.

Globally the world has added over $60 trillion in debt since 2007… and all of this was based on interest rates that were close to or even below ZERO.

All of this is at risk of blowing up courtesy of this spike inflation.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s in terms of Fed Policy when The Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Perhaps the best tool for anticipating major shifts in the financial system is the ratio between Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS): and the Long-term Treasuries ETF (TLT).

In its simplest form, when this ratio rallies, the financial system is anticipating IN-flation. When this ratio falls, the financial system is anticipating DE-flation.

Below is a 10 year chart for this ratio. And as you can see, it has just broke out of a 10-year deflationary channel.

This is an absolute game-changer.

If this breakout continues, then we have a confirmed shift in the entire financial system away from fearing deflation to expecting inflation.

The impact this will have on all asset classes will be massive. And it’s about to blow up the Everything Bubble.

Bonds trade based on inflation.

If inflation rises, so do bond yields.

When bond yields Rise, bond prices FALL.

And when bond prices FALL, the massive debt bubble begins to burst.

On that note, the yield on the most important bond in the world: the 10-Year Treasury, has already broken above its 20-year trendline.

The US is not alone… the yield on 10-Year German Bunds has also broken its downtrend.

Even Japan’s sovereign bonds are coming into the “inflationary” crosshairs with yields on the 10-Year Japanese Government Bond just beginning to break about their long-term downtrend.

Globally the world has added over $60 trillion in debt since 2007… and all of this was based on interest rates that were close to or even below ZERO.

All of this is at risk of blowing up courtesy of this spike inflation. And it’s going to collapse most asset classes in ways we haven’t seen since 2008.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s in terms of Fed Policy when The Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Perhaps the best tool for anticipating major shifts in the financial system is the ratio between Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS): and the Long-term Treasuries ETF (TLT).

In its simplest form, when this ratio rallies, the financial system is anticipating IN-flation. When this ratio falls, the financial system is anticipating DE-flation.

Below is a 10 year chart for this ratio. And as you can see, it has just broke out of a 10-year deflationary channel.

This is an absolute game-changer.

If this breakout continues, then we have a confirmed shift in the entire financial system away from fearing deflation to expecting inflation.

The impact this will have on all asset classes will be massive. And it’s about to blow up the Everything Bubble.

Bonds trade based on inflation.

If inflation rises, so do bond yields.

When bond yields Rise, bond prices FALL.

And when bond prices FALL, the massive debt bubble begins to burst.

On that note, the yield on the most important bond in the world: the 10-Year Treasury, has already broken above its 20-year trendline.

The US is not alone… the yield on 10-Year German Bunds has also broken its downtrend.

Even Japan’s sovereign bonds are coming into the “inflationary” crosshairs with yields on the 10-Year Japanese Government Bond just beginning to break about their long-term downtrend.

Globally the world has added over $60 trillion in debt since 2007… and all of this was based on interest rates that were close to or even below ZERO.

All of this is at risk of blowing up courtesy of this spike inflation. And it’s going to collapse most asset classes in ways we haven’t seen since 2008.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s in terms of Fed Policy when The Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Perhaps the best tool for anticipating major shifts in the financial system is the ratio between Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS): and the Long-term Treasuries ETF (TLT).

In its simplest form, when this ratio rallies, the financial system is anticipating IN-flation. When this ratio falls, the financial system is anticipating DE-flation.

Below is a 10 year chart for this ratio. And as you can see, it has just broke out of a 10-year deflationary channel.

This is an absolute game-changer.

If this breakout continues, then we have a confirmed shift in the entire financial system away from fearing deflation to expecting inflation.

The impact this will have on all asset classes will be massive. And it’s about to blow up the Everything Bubble.

Bonds trade based on inflation.

If inflation rises, so do bond yields.

When bond yields Rise, bond prices FALL.

And when bond prices FALL, the massive debt bubble begins to burst.

On that note, the yield on the most important bond in the world: the 10-Year Treasury, has already broken above its 20-year trendline.

The US is not alone… the yield on 10-Year German Bunds has also broken its downtrend.

Even Japan’s sovereign bonds are coming into the “inflationary” crosshairs with yields on the 10-Year Japanese Government Bond just beginning to break about their long-term downtrend.

Globally the world has added over $60 trillion in debt since 2007… and all of this was based on interest rates that were close to or even below ZERO.

All of this is at risk of blowing up courtesy of this spike inflation. And it’s going to collapse most asset classes in ways we haven’t seen since 2008.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s in terms of Fed Policy when The Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

The financial media is finally catching on to something we’ve been screaming about for years…

That the Fed’s preferred metric for measuring inflation is a complete joke.

Making matters more difficult, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge does a pitiful job of capturing the quandary facing many households that live paycheck to paycheck. The so-called core PCE is the central bank’s go-to inflation metric. It is derived by netting out the necessities of food and energy from personal consumption expenditures. But the core PCE also minimizes the weight of rent and over-emphasizes health care due to Medicaid and Medicare’s inputs.

Source: Bloomberg

What the article doesn’t understand is that this scheme is intentional.

The reality is that since the US abandoned the Gold Standard in 1971, the Fed has effectively been “papering over” declining living standards in that the actual “cost of living” in the US has soared relative to real incomes.

This fact stares all of us in the face every day. Back in the late ‘60s / early ‘70s, one parent worked and most Americans had a decent quality of life. Today both parents typically work and are one financial emergency away from being broke.

The Fed masks this by understating inflation and by providing an endless stream of easy credit/ debt. This is why the Fed’s continuous “gosh, inflation is just too low… we better keep on printing money forever,” shtick is so ridiculous.

However, like the famous Frankenstein monster, the Fed’s inflationary policies are about to turn on their master.

The fact is that inflation is actually clocking in well over 3%. And it’s about to blow up the Everything Bubble.

Bonds trade based on inflation.

If inflation rises, so do bond yields.

When bond yields Rise, bond prices FALL.

And when bond prices FALL, the massive debt bubble begins to burst.

On that note, the yield on the most important bond in the world: the 10-Year Treasury, has already broken above its 20-year trendline.

The US is not alone… the yield on 10-Year German Bunds has also broken its downtrend.

Even Japan’s sovereign bonds are coming into the “inflationary” crosshairs with yields on the 10-Year Japanese Government Bond just beginning to break about their long-term downtrend.

Globally the world has added over $60 trillion in debt since 2007… and all of this was based on interested rates that were close to or even below ZERO.

All of this is at risk of blowing up courtesy of this spike inflation. And it’s going to collapse most asset classes in ways we haven’t seen since 2008.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s in terms of Fed Policy when The Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

The financial media is finally catching on to something we’ve been screaming about for years…

That the Fed’s preferred metric for measuring inflation is a complete joke.

Making matters more difficult, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge does a pitiful job of capturing the quandary facing many households that live paycheck to paycheck. The so-called core PCE is the central bank’s go-to inflation metric. It is derived by netting out the necessities of food and energy from personal consumption expenditures. But the core PCE also minimizes the weight of rent and over-emphasizes health care due to Medicaid and Medicare’s inputs.

Source: Bloomberg

What the article doesn’t understand is that this scheme is intentional.

The reality is that since the US abandoned the Gold Standard in 1971, the Fed has effectively been “papering over” declining living standards in that the actual “cost of living” in the US has soared relative to real incomes.

This fact stares all of us in the face every day. Back in the late ‘60s / early ‘70s, one parent worked and most Americans had a decent quality of life. Today both parents typically work and are one financial emergency away from being broke.

The Fed masks this by understating inflation and by providing an endless stream of easy credit/ debt. This is why the Fed’s continuous “gosh, inflation is just too low… we better keep on printing money forever,” shtick is so ridiculous.

However, like the famous Frankenstein monster, the Fed’s inflationary policies are about to turn on their master.

The fact is that inflation is actually clocking in well over 3%. And it’s about to blow up the Everything Bubble.

Bonds trade based on inflation.

If inflation rises, so do bond yields.

When bond yields Rise, bond prices FALL.

And when bond prices FALL, the massive debt bubble begins to burst.

On that note, the yield on the most important bond in the world: the 10-Year Treasury, has already broken above its 20-year trendline.

The US is not alone… the yield on 10-Year German Bunds has also broken its downtrend.

Even Japan’s sovereign bonds are coming into the “inflationary” crosshairs with yields on the 10-Year Japanese Government Bond just beginning to break about their long-term downtrend.

Globally the world has added over $60 trillion in debt since 2007… and all of this was based on interested rates that were close to or even below ZERO.

All of this is at risk of blowing up courtesy of this spike inflation. And it’s going to collapse most asset classes in ways we haven’t seen since 2008.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s in terms of Fed Policy when The Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

It’s no secret that Central Banks have been funneling liquidity both directly and indirectly into stocks. However, what most investors don’t realize is that this liquidity pump is about to end.

Why?

Because the endless streams of liquidity (Central Banks continue to run QE programs of $100+ billion per month despite the global economy stabilizing) have unleashed inflation.

Forget the “official” date. That stuff is all propaganda. Take a look at what is happening in the bond markets which trade based on inflation in the real world.

When inflation rises, bond yields rise. And right now, sovereign bond yields are rising around the world.

The yield on the US 10-Year Treasury has broken its 20-year downtrend.

The US is not alone… the yield on 10-Year German Bunds has also broken its downtrend.

Even Japan’s sovereign bonds are coming into the “inflationary” crosshairs with yields on the 10-Year Japanese Government Bond just beginning to break about their long-term downtrend.

Because if bond rates continue to rise, many countries will quickly find themselves insolvent.

Globally the world has added over $60 trillion in debt since 2007… and all of this was based on interested rates that were close to or even below ZERO.

Central Bank cannot and will not risk blowing up this debt bomb. So they are going to be forced to “pull the plug” on liquidity and “let stocks go.”

Put simply, if the choice is:

1)   Let stocks drop and deal with complaints from Wall Street…

Or…

2)   Let the bond bubble blow up, destabilizing the entire financial system and rendering most governments insolvent…

Central Banks are going to opt for #1 Every. Single. Time.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s in terms of Fed Policy when The Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Stocks are about to wake up to the risk of “higher rates.”

As I outlined in my bestselling book, The Everything Bubble: The Endgame For Central Bank Policy, the entire stock market move from the 2009 bottom onwards was induced by the Federal Reserve creating a bubble in US sovereign bonds, also called Treasuries.

The idea here was that if the Fed could force bond prices high enough (resulting in extraordinarily low bond yields) investors would be forced to move into stocks to seek higher returns. This was the “There Is No Alternative” (TINA) theme that Wall Street pushed from 2010 onward.

And it’s about to crash into a wall.

The bond market has finally awoken from its slumber. And bond yields are starting to rise to accommodate the higher rate of inflation that is rippling through the financial system.

Indeed, the yield on the 10-Year US Treasury (the single most important bond in the world) has taken out its 20-year trendline.

Put simply, the bond market is warning that we are about to enter a “risk off” event in the financial system. And that “risk off” is going to be due to an inflationary shock that 99% of investors don’t see coming.

Put simply, the bond market is forecasting a SEVERE inflationary shock is coming shortly.

And it’s going to blow up the Everything Bubble.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s in terms of Fed Policy when The Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Over the weekend, the Cleveland Fed released its media Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December 2017.

The result? The Median CPI rose 0.3% in December, an annualized rate of 3.5%.

Put simply, core inflation is rising rapidly… and the Fed is WAY behind the curve.

Small wonder the US Dollar is collapsing, breaking through critical resistance.

The BIG PICTURE chart is even uglier, suggesting the $USD is going to crash to the mid-80s soon.

Put simply, the $USD is forecasting a SEVERE inflationary shock is coming shortly.

And it’s going to blow up the Everything Bubble.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s in terms of Fed Policy when The Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Over the weekend, the Cleveland Fed released its media Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December 2017.

The result? The Median CPI rose 0.3% in December, an annualized rate of 3.5%.

Put simply, core inflation is rising rapidly… and the Fed is WAY behind the curve.

Small wonder the US Dollar is collapsing, breaking through critical resistance.

The BIG PICTURE chart is even uglier, suggesting the $USD is going to crash to the mid-80s soon.

Put simply, the $USD is forecasting a SEVERE inflationary shock is coming shortly.

And it’s going to blow up the Everything Bubble.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s in terms of Fed Policy when The Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research