Month: April 2018

Stocks are up this morning.

The media believes this has something to do with a “relief rally” regarding the fact that conflict in Syria didn’t lead to WWIII over the weekend.

It doesn’t. The markets knew Syria wouldn’t lead to WWIII last week. If we were heading into WWIII why would stocks finish UP over 2% on the week?

In the larger picture, as I’ve been telling clients for the last three weeks, we are moving into a MAJOR “risk on” move for the financial markets.

The  S&P 500 broke above critical resistance (blue line) late last week. We are now set for a massive summer rally that will see stocks go to new all-time highs.

We often talk about Black Swans, but the markets are currently prepping for a WHITE Swan. That Swan is a massive rally into a Blow Off Top that is commencing now.

At that point, we’ll be ready to begin the next Crisis.

If you’re not actively taking steps to prepare for what’s coming, you need to start NOW.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s coming down the pike when the Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

The financial world is finally waking up to the fact that inflation is in fact MUCH higher than previously believed.

As we noted yesterday, the official measure of inflation, the CPI, is now clocking in at 2.4%, well above the Fed’s so-called target of 2%.

This is really, REALLY bad news because the CPI is actually massaged to make inflation look LOWER than it really is.

So if CPI is at 2.4%… where is REAL inflation?

Well, the NY Fed’s “in-house” inflation measures, the UIG suggests it’s actually MUCH higher at 3.14%.

Small wonder then that the $USD is dropping like a brick.

That’s an ASTONISHING 13% drop in the last 14 months.

Let me ask you… if REAL inflation is only 2-3%… why would the US Dollar be dropping like a brick this way?

This is THE Black Swan even of 2018. And the Fed is hopelessly behind the curve on it.

If you’re not actively taking steps to prepare for what’s coming, you need to start NOW.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s coming down the pike when the Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

The financial world is finally waking up to the fact that inflation is in fact MUCH higher than previously believed.

As we noted yesterday, the official measure of inflation, the CPI, is now clocking in at 2.4%, well above the Fed’s so-called target of 2%.

This is really, REALLY bad news because the CPI is actually massaged to make inflation look LOWER than it really is.

So if CPI is at 2.4%… where is REAL inflation?

Well, the NY Fed’s “in-house” inflation measures, the UIG suggests it’s actually MUCH higher at 3.14%.

Small wonder then that the $USD is dropping like a brick.

That’s an ASTONISHING 13% drop in the last 14 months.

Let me ask you… if REAL inflation is only 2-3%… why would the US Dollar be dropping like a brick this way?

This is THE Black Swan even of 2018. And the Fed is hopelessly behind the curve on it.

If you’re not actively taking steps to prepare for what’s coming, you need to start NOW.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s coming down the pike when the Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

The financial world is finally waking up to the fact that inflation is in fact MUCH higher than previously believed.

As we noted yesterday, the official measure of inflation, the CPI, is now clocking in at 2.4%, well above the Fed’s so-called target of 2%.

This is really, REALLY bad news because the CPI is actually massaged to make inflation look LOWER than it really is.

So if CPI is at 2.4%… where is REAL inflation?

Well, the NY Fed’s “in-house” inflation measures, the UIG suggests its actually MUCH higher at 3.14%.

Small wonder then that the $USD is dropping like a brick.

That’s an ASTONISHING 13% drop in the last 14 months.

Let me ask you… if REAL inflation is only 2-3%… why would the US Dollar be dropping like a brick this way?

This is THE Black Swan even of 2018. And the Fed is hopelessly behind the curve on it.

If you’re not actively taking steps to prepare for what’s coming, you need to start NOW.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s coming down the pike when the Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

The Fed is now officially screwed.

The single biggest concern for the Fed is inflation. The reason for this is that US Treasuries are currently in a massive bubble. And those Treasury yields trade based on inflation.

If inflation rises, so do Treasury yields.

If Treasury yields rise, Treasury prices fall.

If Treasury prices fall, the bond bubble begins to burst.

Here’s the bad news… inflation is roaring. The Fed’s official inflation measure, the CPI, is now clocking in at 2.4%. And remember, this is the inflation measure that is meant to UNDERSTATE real inflation.

Elsewhere there are clear signals that inflation is over 3% (the NY Fed’s UIG) or even higher. And bear in mind, this is happening at a time when the Fed is already raising rates 3-4 times per year.

Small wonder then that the $USD is dropping like a brick.

If you’re not actively taking steps to prepare for what’s coming, you need to start NOW.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s coming down the pike when the Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

The Fed is now officially screwed.

The single biggest concern for the Fed is inflation. The reason for this is that US Treasuries are currently in a massive bubble. And those Treasury yields trade based on inflation.

If inflation rises, so do Treasury yields.

If Treasury yields rise, Treasury prices fall.

If Treasury prices fall, the bond bubble begins to burst.

Here’s the bad news… inflation is roaring. The Fed’s official inflation measure, the CPI, is now clocking in at 2.4%. And remember, this is the inflation measure that is meant to UNDERSTATE real inflation.

Elsewhere there are clear signals that inflation is over 3% (the NY Fed’s UIG) or even higher. And bear in mind, this is happening at a time when the Fed is already raising rates 3-4 times per year.

Small wonder then that the $USD is dropping like a brick.

If you’re not actively taking steps to prepare for what’s coming, you need to start NOW.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s coming down the pike when the Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Below is a note posted to our clients before the market’s open on Monday. To join our list and receive our exclusive insights, go to:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

If you want to make money in the markets this week, the first thing you need to understand is that there is NO trade war.

I know that every single headline and “guru” is talking about a trade war as if it’s a guaranteed apocalyptic scenario. It isn’t. This is just misguided hysteria.

But what about all the tariffs? The hundreds of billions of dollars worth of tariffs that are hurting China and the US and will lead us all to an economic crisis?

There are none.

All of the tariffs that have been announced thus far don’t go into effect until MAY at the earliest. The big $100 billion one won’t hit until early June. And even Trump’s trade guy has implied this is a soft deadline.

As for the horrible steel and aluminum tariffs that have already been put into effect, Trump exempted FOUR out of the five largest US trade partners from the deal. And China, the sole trade partner that was punished is responsible for… wait for it… a WHOPPING $1.9 billion in steel trade.

Yes, $1.9 billion, less than HALF of 1% of trade between the US and China.

Again, there is no trade war. This is a NEGOTIATION process that will be resolved LONG before any real tariffs of any real significance go into effect.

And the markets know it.

The currency markets are smarter, more liquid, and more sensitive to systemic changes than stocks. The entire stock market is in the ballpark of $75 trillion.

Currency markets trade $5-$6 trillion PER DAY.

With that in mind, take a look at the $USD: Yen pair, arguably the single most important currency pair in the world. This is the “Yen carry trade” and it, better than almost anything, indicates the degree of global liquidity in the system,

Since Trump announced the steel and aluminum tariffs on March 1, 2018, and the US and China have gone back and forth threatening ever larger tariffs on each other, this pair is… FLAT.

Indeed, this currency pair ERASED ALL OF ITS LOSSES starting two weeks ago.

You think the currency markets might know something that the “gurus” don’t?

Yep. They know that the big bad trade war is going to be resolved and trade and liquidity will continue just fine.

Which means… stocks are about to erupt higher in a “relief rally.” And based on the fact the ENTIRE WORLD is shorting stocks right now, I believe we will hit NEW ALL TIME HIGHS in a final blow off top sometime this summer.

This is just another humble reminder that the market knows more than most experts. It always pays to pay attention to price!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Below is a note posted to our clients before the market’s open on Monday. To join our list and receive our exclusive insights, go to:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

If you want to make money in the markets this week, the first thing you need to understand is that there is NO trade war.

I know that every single headline and “guru” is talking about a trade war as if it’s a guaranteed apocalyptic scenario. It isn’t. This is just misguided hysteria.

But what about all the tariffs? The hundreds of billions of dollars worth of tariffs that are hurting China and the US and will lead us all to an economic crisis?

There are none.

All of the tariffs that have been announced thus far don’t go into effect until MAY at the earliest. The big $100 billion one won’t hit until early June. And even Trump’s trade guy has implied this is a soft deadline.

As for the horrible steel and aluminum tariffs that have already been put into effect, Trump exempted FOUR out of the five largest US trade partners from the deal. And China, the sole trade partner that was punished is responsible for… wait for it… a WHOPPING $1.9 billion in steel trade.

Yes, $1.9 billion, less than HALF of 1% of trade between the US and China.

Again, there is no trade war. This is a NEGOTIATION process that will be resolved LONG before any real tariffs of any real significance go into effect.

And the markets know it.

The currency markets are smarter, more liquid, and more sensitive to systemic changes than stocks. The entire stock market is in the ballpark of $75 trillion.

Currency markets trade $5-$6 trillion PER DAY.

With that in mind, take a look at the $USD: Yen pair, arguably the single most important currency pair in the world. This is the “Yen carry trade” and it, better than almost anything, indicates the degree of global liquidity in the system,

Since Trump announced the steel and aluminum tariffs on March 1, 2018, and the US and China have gone back and forth threatening ever larger tariffs on each other, this pair is… FLAT.

Indeed, this currency pair ERASED ALL OF ITS LOSSES starting two weeks ago.

You think the currency markets might know something that the “gurus” don’t?

Yep. They know that the big bad trade war is going to be resolved and trade and liquidity will continue just fine.

Which means… stocks are about to erupt higher in a “relief rally.” And based on the fact the ENTIRE WORLD is shorting stocks right now, I believe we will hit NEW ALL TIME HIGHS in a final blow off top sometime this summer.

This is just another humble reminder that the market knows more than most experts. It always pays to pay attention to price!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Below is a note posted to our clients before the market’s open on Monday. To join our list and receive our exclusive insights, go to:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

If you want to make money in the markets this week, the first thing you need to understand is that there is NO trade war.

I know that every single headline and “guru” is talking about a trade war as if it’s a guaranteed apocalyptic scenario. It isn’t. This is just misguided hysteria.

But what about all the tariffs? The hundreds of billions of dollars worth of tariffs that are hurting China and the US and will lead us all to an economic crisis?

There are none.

All of the tariffs that have been announced thus far don’t go into effect until MAY at the earliest. The big $100 billion one won’t hit until early June. And even Trump’s trade guy has implied this is a soft deadline.

As for the horrible steel and aluminum tariffs that have already been put into effect, Trump exempted FOUR out of the five largest US trade partners from the deal. And China, the sole trade partner that was punished is responsible for… wait for it… a WHOPPING $1.9 billion in steel trade.

Yes, $1.9 billion, less than HALF of 1% of trade between the US and China.

Again, there is no trade war. This is a NEGOTIATION process that will be resolved LONG before any real tariffs of any real significance go into effect.

And the markets know it.

The currency markets are smarter, more liquid, and more sensitive to systemic changes than stocks. The entire stock market is in the ballpark of $75 trillion.

Currency markets trade $5-$6 trillion PER DAY.

With that in mind, take a look at the $USD: Yen pair, arguably the single most important currency pair in the world. This is the “Yen carry trade” and it, better than almost anything, indicates the degree of global liquidity in the system,

Since Trump announced the steel and aluminum tariffs on March 1, 2018, and the US and China have gone back and forth threatening ever larger tariffs on each other, this pair is… FLAT.

Indeed, this currency pair ERASED ALL OF ITS LOSSES starting two weeks ago.

You think the currency markets might know something that the “gurus” don’t?

Yep. They know that the big bad trade war is going to be resolved and trade and liquidity will continue just fine.

Which means… stocks are about to erupt higher in a “relief rally.” And based on the fact the ENTIRE WORLD is shorting stocks right now, I believe we will hit NEW ALL TIME HIGHS in a final blow off top sometime this summer.

This is just another humble reminder that the market knows more than most experts. It always pays to pay attention to price!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

The Prices Paid Index just rose for its fourth straight month to 78.1: its highest level since April 2011.

Why does this matter?

Because it’s a MAJOR warning that inflation is coming.

You see, when inflation hits, it doesn’t hit all at once. Instead it rolls out into the economy in stages.

The first stage occurs at the “production” level of the economy. In this stage, managers at large manufacturers/production companies will see a spike in the cost of goods and services they buy in order to supply their firms.

This cost is measured by the Prices Paid Index. Below is a chart from Investing.com which shows this metric. The trend here is obvious: UP.

Initially, corporations will “eat” these increased costs by continuing to sell their goods and services at the same prices (despite the fact that their costs are increasing).

However, if the Prices Paid Index continues to rise, eventually corporations are FORCED to rise prices on the goods and services they sell.

THAT’s when inflation starts appearing on the retail side of the economy in the price consumers pay for things.

By the look of things, we’re already there. As I noted yesterday, several of the Fed’s OWN in-house inflation measures are roaring.

• The New York Fed’s UIG inflation measure is currently clocking in at 3.06%.

• The Atlanta Fed’s “sticky” inflation measure is growing at an annualized rate of 2.2%.

• Even the Fed’s heavily massaged Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) metric is growing at 1.8% on an annualized basis, only slightly below the Fed’s so-called target rate of 2%.

Even worse, the bond market has picked up on this. The yield on the 10-Year Us Treasury (the most important bond in the world.

This is not an isolated issue either..

The yields on the 10-Year German Bund, 10-Year Japanese Government Bond, and 10-Year UK Gilt are all rising to test their long-term downtrends.

If these trendlines break (as I expect they will in the coming weeks) it will mark the beginning of the end for The Everything Bubble.

All told, there is over $199 trillion in debt outstanding and an additional $500+ trillion in derivatives trading based on these bond yields.

So when this bubble bursts (as all bubbles do) we will experience a crisis many magnitudes worse than 2008.

Suffice to say, the opportunity to make MASSIVE gains from this trend is HUGE.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s coming down the pike when the Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

The Prices Paid Index just rose for its fourth straight month to 78.1: its highest level since April 2011.

Why does this matter?

Because it’s a MAJOR warning that inflation is coming.

You see, when inflation hits, it doesn’t hit all at once. Instead it rolls out into the economy in stages.

The first stage occurs at the “production” level of the economy. In this stage, managers at large manufacturers/production companies will see a spike in the cost of goods and services they buy in order to supply their firms.

This cost is measured by the Prices Paid Index. Below is a chart from Investing.com which shows this metric. The trend here is obvious: UP.

Initially, corporations will “eat” these increased costs by continuing to sell their goods and services at the same prices (despite the fact that their costs are increasing).

However, if the Prices Paid Index continues to rise, eventually corporations are FORCED to rise prices on the goods and services they sell.

THAT’s when inflation starts appearing on the retail side of the economy in the price consumers pay for things.

By the look of things, we’re already there. As I noted yesterday, several of the Fed’s OWN in-house inflation measures are roaring.

• The New York Fed’s UIG inflation measure is currently clocking in at 3.06%.

• The Atlanta Fed’s “sticky” inflation measure is growing at an annualized rate of 2.2%.

• Even the Fed’s heavily massaged Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) metric is growing at 1.8% on an annualized basis, only slightly below the Fed’s so-called target rate of 2%.

Even worse, the bond market has picked up on this. The yield on the 10-Year Us Treasury (the most important bond in the world.

This is not an isolated issue either..

The yields on the 10-Year German Bund, 10-Year Japanese Government Bond, and 10-Year UK Gilt are all rising to test their long-term downtrends.

If these trendlines break (as I expect they will in the coming weeks) it will mark the beginning of the end for The Everything Bubble.

All told, there is over $199 trillion in debt outstanding and an additional $500+ trillion in derivatives trading based on these bond yields.

So when this bubble bursts (as all bubbles do) we will experience a crisis many magnitudes worse than 2008.

Suffice to say, the opportunity to make MASSIVE gains from this trend is HUGE.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s coming down the pike when the Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

The Prices Paid Index just rose for its fourth straight month to 78.1: its highest level since April 2011.

Why does this matter?

Because it’s a MAJOR warning that inflation is coming.

You see, when inflation hits, it doesn’t hit all at once. Instead it rolls out into the economy in stages.

The first stage occurs at the “production” level of the economy. In this stage, managers at large manufacturers/production companies will see a spike in the cost of goods and services they buy in order to supply their firms.

This cost is measured by the Prices Paid Index. Below is a chart from Investing.com which shows this metric. The trend here is obvious: UP.

Initially, corporations will “eat” these increased costs by continuing to sell their goods and services at the same prices (despite the fact that their costs are increasing).

However, if the Prices Paid Index continues to rise, eventually corporations are FORCED to rise prices on the goods and services they sell.

THAT’s when inflation starts appearing on the retail side of the economy in the price consumers pay for things.

By the look of things, we’re already there. As I noted yesterday, several of the Fed’s OWN in-house inflation measures are roaring.

• The New York Fed’s UIG inflation measure is currently clocking in at 3.06%.

• The Atlanta Fed’s “sticky” inflation measure is growing at an annualized rate of 2.2%.

• Even the Fed’s heavily massaged Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) metric is growing at 1.8% on an annualized basis, only slightly below the Fed’s so-called target rate of 2%.

Even worse, the bond market has picked up on this. The yield on the 10-Year Us Treasury (the most important bond in the world.

This is not an isolated issue either..

The yields on the 10-Year German Bund, 10-Year Japanese Government Bond, and 10-Year UK Gilt are all rising to test their long-term downtrends.

If these trendlines break (as I expect they will in the coming weeks) it will mark the beginning of the end for The Everything Bubble.

All told, there is over $199 trillion in debt outstanding and an additional $500+ trillion in derivatives trading based on these bond yields.

So when this bubble bursts (as all bubbles do) we will experience a crisis many magnitudes worse than 2008.

Suffice to say, the opportunity to make MASSIVE gains from this trend is HUGE.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s coming down the pike when the Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

The Prices Paid Index just rose for its fourth straight month to 78.1: its highest level since April 2011.

Why does this matter?

Because it’s a MAJOR warning that inflation is coming.

You see, when inflation hits, it doesn’t hit all at once. Instead it rolls out into the economy in stages.

The first stage occurs at the “production” level of the economy. In this stage, managers at large manufacturers/production companies will see a spike in the cost of goods and services they buy in order to supply their firms.

This cost is measured by the Prices Paid Index. Below is a chart from Investing.com which shows this metric. The trend here is obvious: UP.

Initially, corporations will “eat” these increased costs by continuing to sell their goods and services at the same prices (despite the fact that their costs are increasing).

However, if the Prices Paid Index continues to rise, eventually corporations are FORCED to rise prices on the goods and services they sell.

THAT’s when inflation starts appearing on the retail side of the economy in the price consumers pay for things.

By the look of things, we’re already there. As I noted yesterday, several of the Fed’s OWN in-house inflation measures are roaring.

• The New York Fed’s UIG inflation measure is currently clocking in at 3.06%.

• The Atlanta Fed’s “sticky” inflation measure is growing at an annualized rate of 2.2%.

• Even the Fed’s heavily massaged Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) metric is growing at 1.8% on an annualized basis, only slightly below the Fed’s so-called target rate of 2%.

Even worse, the bond market has picked up on this. The yield on the 10-Year Us Treasury (the most important bond in the world.

This is not an isolated issue either..

The yields on the 10-Year German Bund, 10-Year Japanese Government Bond, and 10-Year UK Gilt are all rising to test their long-term downtrends.

If these trendlines break (as I expect they will in the coming weeks) it will mark the beginning of the end for The Everything Bubble.

All told, there is over $199 trillion in debt outstanding and an additional $500+ trillion in derivatives trading based on these bond yields.

So when this bubble bursts (as all bubbles do) we will experience a crisis many magnitudes worse than 2008.

Suffice to say, the opportunity to make MASSIVE gains from this trend is HUGE.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s coming down the pike when the Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research