Month: June 2018

As we noted earlier this week, China, tired of the “back and forth” with the Trump administration on trade negotiations, has resorted to devaluing the Yuan.

The goal here was to induce another sharp sell-off in stocks, similar to the ones induced by China’s August 2015 and January 2016 devaluations. By the way, those last two devaluations (red boxes) resulted in the S&P 500 dropping 11% and 12% in less than one week.

—————————————————————-

10 of Our Last 11 Trades Were Double Digit Winners

Our options trading system is on a HOT streak: 10 of our last 11 trades were double digit winners!

Don’t believe me?

You can see EVERY trade we’ve made this year HERE.

As a result we’re now up 35% this year alone… beating the S&P 500 by an astonishing 34%.

Best of all, this system couldn’t be easier: we only trade one trade, once per week… and we’re CRUSHING the market.

To join us today, take out a 60 day trial subscription.

If you’re not seeing SERIOUS returns within the first 60 days, we’ll issue a full refund, NO QUESTIONS ASKED.

To take out a trial subscription…

CLICK HERE NOW!!!

—————————————————————-

Fast forward to today and the $USD:Yuan pair is down SHARPLY. The $USD index is also sharply down. And the highly inflationary Australian Dollar is up sharply.

Of course, one day does not make a trend. But today is the best day for stocks, from a currency perspective, in several weeks.

However, underneath this good news is some VERY bad news… the Fed’s QT program is still ongoing… in fact it will increase from $30 billion to $50 billion per month starting in July.

So while President Trump may have solved things with China… the Fed is still presenting the markets with a major problem. Indeed, if with the good news in currency land, various risk proxies such as High Yield Credit are DOWN for the day.

With that in mind, we stand by our current thesis that unless the Fed “pumps the brakes” on its QT programs and rate hike schedule, stocks are on VERY thing ice.

How thin?

Most Emerging Markets are already down 20% this year. If US stocks were to play “catch up” it would mean the S&P 500 at 2,300-2,400.

The time to prepare for this is NOW before the carnage hits.

On that note, we are already preparing our clients with a 21-page investment report that shows them FOUR investment strategies that will protect their capital when and if a stock market crash hits.

It’s called The Stock Market Crash Survival Guide… and it is available exclusively to our clients.

To pick up one of the 100 copies…use the link below.

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

 

China has gotten tired of playing “tariff tag” with the Trump administration. It’s now playing a new game called the “devalue stock dump.” It consists of China aggressively devaluing the Yuan in an effort to crash the US stock market.

If you think I’m being overly dramatic here, have a look at the below chart. This current devaluation is already on par if not worse than those of August 2015 and January 2016.

By the way, those last two devaluations (red boxes) resulted in the S&P 500 dropping 11% and 12% in less than one week.

—————————————————————-

10 of Our Last 11 Trades Were Double Digit Winners

Our options trading system is on a HOT streak: 10 of our last 11 trades were double digit winners!

Don’t believe me?

You can see EVERY trade we’ve made this year HERE.

As a result we’re now up 35% this year alone… beating the S&P 500 by an astonishing 34%.

Best of all, this system couldn’t be easier: we only trade one trade, once per week… and we’re CRUSHING the market.

To join us today, take out a 60 day trial subscription.

If you’re not seeing SERIOUS returns within the first 60 days, we’ll issue a full refund, NO QUESTIONS ASKED.

To take out a trial subscription…

CLICK HERE NOW!!!

—————————————————————-

Put simply, China is done messing around. It is actively trying to crash the US stock market to send a message to the Trump administration. China knows that President Trump views the stock market as a “report card” on his performance as Presidency.

Bear in mind, most Emerging Markets (including China) are already in bear markets, having dropped ~20%. If the US stock market follows suit, we’re talking about the S&P 500 down in the 2,3-00-2,400 range.

The time to prepare for this is NOW before the carnage hits.

On that note, we are already preparing our clients with a 21-page investment report that shows them FOUR investment strategies that will protect their capital when and if a stock market crash hits.

It’s called The Stock Market Crash Survival Guide… and it is available exclusively to our clients.

To pick up one of the 100 copies…use the link below.

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

 

 

If you think what’s happening in the markets has ANYTHING to do with tariffs, you need to rethink some things. The single most important factor for the markets is…LIQUIDITY.

The Fed is pulling liquidity out of the market at its fastest pace in decades… possibly ever. What started as a $10B per month QT program has hit $30B per month and will soon be $50B per month

That comes to $600 billion per YEAR. Meaning the Fed is withdrawing Sweden’s GDP in liquidity every 12 month.

To make this worse, the Fed is ALSO hiking rates, which strengthens the $USD making debt more expensive. There is over $6T in $USD-denominated debt in the EM space. This is why this area started blowing up in March/ April when the Fed’s QT rose to $30B per month.

And, lest we not forget, the $USD is the reserve currency of the world, accounting for 86% of currency trading. So if the $USD is strengthening AND the Fed is pulling liquidity, you’re talking about 86% of ALL currency transactions becoming more expensive/ tighter.

Put simply, the Fed is going ALL OUT with is program to normalize. It’s almost as if Powell wants to undo the entire ’08-’16 period in 3-4 years. That’s insane especially when you consider that when you borrow in $USD, you are effectively SHORTING the $USD.

So that $20T in US debt.. that’s basically $20T in $USD shorts. Expand that thinking to the total amount of $USD-denominated debt in the global financial system and Powell is really playing with fire.

—————————————————————-

10 of Our Last 11 Trades Were Double Digit Winners

Our options trading system is on a HOT streak: 10 of our last 11 trades were double digit winners!

Don’t believe me?

You can see EVERY trade we’ve made this year HERE.

As a result we’re now up 35% this year alone… beating the S&P 500 by an astonishing 34%.

Best of all, this system couldn’t be easier: we only trade one trade, once per week… and we’re CRUSHING the market.

To join us today, take out a 60 day trial subscription.

If you’re not seeing SERIOUS returns within the first 60 days, we’ll issue a full refund, NO QUESTIONS ASKED.

To take out a trial subscription…

CLICK HERE NOW!!!

——————————————————————————————————-

How does this play out?

I believe Powell will back off once the carnage in the EM space spreads to the US. The last week has probably been a MAJOR wake up call for the new Fed Chair. He might very well choose to change course and walk back Fed Policy allowing the market to bottom soon.

That is “Powell Option #1” in the chart below.

However, there is another, far more concerning option, “Powell Option #2.” In this option, Powell decides to pull a Trump-like strategy with Fed policy.

President Trump is running his Presidency like a self-owned business. Business owners will often choose to take “the hit” in the short-term to address issues that will only get worse the longer they are left. President Trump has thus far done this with NK, trade, the US economy and is now shifting to Iran & immigration.

What remains to be seen is if Powell takes this as his template… meaning, he “takes the hit” by going all out on QT/ rate hikes now, rather than letting those issues continue onwards.

That is Powell Option #2. It is a much uglier outcome for the stock market.

In the simplest of terms, does Powell CHOOSE to crash the markets now (20% drop in stocks) in the pursuit of his goal or does he go have measure and take his time. We’ll know within the next 2-3 weeks.

On that note, we are already preparing our clients with a 21-page investment report that shows them FOUR investment strategies that will protect their capital from when and if a stock market crash hits.

It’s called The Stock Market Crash Survival Guide… and it is available exclusively to our clients.

To pick up one of the 100 copies…use the link below.

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

 

If you think what’s happening in the markets has ANYTHING to do with tariffs, you need to rethink some things. The single most important factor for the markets is…LIQUIDITY.

The Fed is pulling liquidity out of the market at its fastest pace in decades… possibly ever. What started as a $10B per month QT program has hit $30B per month and will soon be $50B per month

That comes to $600 billion per YEAR. Meaning the Fed is withdrawing Sweden’s GDP in liquidity every 12 month.

To make this worse, the Fed is ALSO hiking rates, which strengthens the $USD making debt more expensive. There is over $6T in $USD-denominated debt in the EM space. This is why this area started blowing up in March/ April when the Fed’s QT rose to $30B per month.

And, lest we not forget, the $USD is the reserve currency of the world, accounting for 86% of currency trading. So if the $USD is strengthening AND the Fed is pulling liquidity, you’re talking about 86% of ALL currency transactions becoming more expensive/ tighter.

Put simply, the Fed is going ALL OUT with is program to normalize. It’s almost as if Powell wants to undo the entire ’08-’16 period in 3-4 years. That’s insane especially when you consider that when you borrow in $USD, you are effectively SHORTING the $USD.

So that $20T in US debt.. that’s basically $20T in $USD shorts. Expand that thinking to the total amount of $USD-denominated debt in the global financial system and Powell is really playing with fire.

—————————————————————-

10 of Our Last 11 Trades Were Double Digit Winners

Our options trading system is on a HOT streak: 10 of our last 11 trades were double digit winners!

Don’t believe me?

You can see EVERY trade we’ve made this year HERE.

As a result we’re now up 35% this year alone… beating the S&P 500 by an astonishing 34%.

Best of all, this system couldn’t be easier: we only trade one trade, once per week… and we’re CRUSHING the market.

To join us today, take out a 60 day trial subscription.

If you’re not seeing SERIOUS returns within the first 60 days, we’ll issue a full refund, NO QUESTIONS ASKED.

To take out a trial subscription…

CLICK HERE NOW!!!

——————————————————————————————————-

How does this play out?

I believe Powell will back off once the carnage in the EM space spreads to the US. The last week has probably been a MAJOR wake up call for the new Fed Chair. He might very well choose to change course and walk back Fed Policy allowing the market to bottom soon.

That is “Powell Option #1” in the chart below.

However, there is another, far more concerning option, “Powell Option #2.” In this option, Powell decides to pull a Trump-like strategy with Fed policy.

President Trump is running his Presidency like a self-owned business. Business owners will often choose to take “the hit” in the short-term to address issues that will only get worse the longer they are left. President Trump has thus far done this with NK, trade, the US economy and is now shifting to Iran & immigration.

What remains to be seen is if Powell takes this as his template… meaning, he “takes the hit” by going all out on QT/ rate hikes now, rather than letting those issues continue onwards.

That is Powell Option #2. It is a much uglier outcome for the stock market.

In the simplest of terms, does Powell CHOOSE to crash the markets now (20% drop in stocks) in the pursuit of his goal or does he go have measure and take his time. We’ll know within the next 2-3 weeks.

On that note, we are already preparing our clients with a 21-page investment report that shows them FOUR investment strategies that will protect their capital from when and if a stock market crash hits.

It’s called The Stock Market Crash Survival Guide… and it is available exclusively to our clients.

To pick up one of the 100 copies…use the link below.

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

 

If you need more evidence that the Fed screwed up during its latest FOMC meeting, take a look at the below chart.

This chart shows the Dow Jones Industrial Average (a stock index comprised of economically sensitive bell-weathers such as Caterpillar) vs. the NASDAQ (a stock index that is heavily skewed towards Tech giants).

As you can see, for most of this year to date, these two indices have moved in a virtual lockstep. The NASDAQ began to outpace the DJIA in April when the Fed increased its QT program from $10 billion to $30 billion per month.

—————————————————————-

That Makes NINE Straight Double Digit Winners!

Our options trading system is on a HOT streak, having locked in NINE double digit winners in the last four weeks.

Don’t believe me?

You can see EVERY trade we’ve made this year HERE.

As a result we’re now up 41% this year alone.

In fact, we haven’t had a losing trade APRIL 2018.

Best of all, this system couldn’t be easier: we only trade one trade, once per week… and we’re CRUSHING the market.

To join us today, take out a 60 day trial subscription.

If you’re not seeing SERIOUS returns within the first 60 days, we’ll issue a full refund, NO QUESTIONS ASKED.

To take out a trial subscription…

CLICK HERE NOW!!!

—————————————————————-

However, it wasn’t until last week’s FOMC that the divergence became extreme. As you can see in this second chart, the DJIA rolled over IMMEDIATELY after the Fed meeting and has taken a nosedive ever since. The NASDAQ, on the other hand, has gone straight up.

Put simply, the market is discounting that Fed policy is going to crush the economic expansion, leaving the only growth in the large Tech space.

If the Fed doesn’t figure this out soon, we could very well see a market bloodbath hit.

On that note, we are already preparing our clients for this with a 21-page investment report titled the Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline the coming collapse will unfold…which investments will perform best… and how to take out “crash” insurance trades that will pay out huge returns during a market collapse.

We’ve extended our offer to download this report FREE by one week. But this week is the last time this report will be available to the general public.

To pick up one of the last remaining copies…

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

If you need more evidence that the Fed screwed up during its latest FOMC meeting, take a look at the below chart.

This chart shows the Dow Jones Industrial Average (a stock index comprised of economically sensitive bell-weathers such as Caterpillar) vs. the NASDAQ (a stock index that is heavily skewed towards Tech giants).

As you can see, for most of this year to date, these two indices have moved in a virtual lockstep. The NASDAQ began to outpace the DJIA in April when the Fed increased its QT program from $10 billion to $30 billion per month.

—————————————————————-

That Makes NINE Straight Double Digit Winners!

Our options trading system is on a HOT streak, having locked in NINE double digit winners in the last four weeks.

Don’t believe me?

You can see EVERY trade we’ve made this year HERE.

As a result we’re now up 41% this year alone.

In fact, we haven’t had a losing trade APRIL 2018.

Best of all, this system couldn’t be easier: we only trade one trade, once per week… and we’re CRUSHING the market.

To join us today, take out a 60 day trial subscription.

If you’re not seeing SERIOUS returns within the first 60 days, we’ll issue a full refund, NO QUESTIONS ASKED.

To take out a trial subscription…

CLICK HERE NOW!!!

—————————————————————-

However, it wasn’t until last week’s FOMC that the divergence became extreme. As you can see in this second chart, the DJIA rolled over IMMEDIATELY after the Fed meeting and has taken a nosedive ever since. The NASDAQ, on the other hand, has gone straight up.

Put simply, the market is discounting that Fed policy is going to crush the economic expansion, leaving the only growth in the large Tech space.

If the Fed doesn’t figure this out soon, we could very well see a market bloodbath hit.

On that note, we are already preparing our clients for this with a 21-page investment report titled the Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline the coming collapse will unfold…which investments will perform best… and how to take out “crash” insurance trades that will pay out huge returns during a market collapse.

We’ve extended our offer to download this report FREE by one week. But this week is the last time this report will be available to the general public.

To pick up one of the last remaining copies…

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

The financial media are euphoric that stocks are up today. However, they’re all ignoring the fact that the issue that triggered the recent sell-off (the Fed’s colossal policy error regarding the $USD) has not been resolved.

Put another way, until the $USD rolls over, stocks are in serious danger. We need to get out of that red rectangle area ASAP and back down to the green rectangle.

By the look of things, the Fed still hasn’t figured this out.

At a time when the ECB is still engaged in QE and the BoJ is printing yen by the tens of billions, the Powell Fed has decided it’d be a great idea to hike rates over 7 times over 24 months while withdrawing $600 billion in liquidity per year.

—————————————————————-

That Makes NINE Straight Double Digit Winners!

Our options trading system is on a HOT streak, having locked in NINE double digit winners in the last four weeks.

Don’t believe me?

You can see EVERY trade we’ve made this year HERE.

As a result we’re now up 41% this year alone.

In fact, we haven’t had a losing trade APRIL 2018.

Best of all, this system couldn’t be easier: we only trade one trade, once per week… and we’re CRUSHING the market.

To join us today, take out a 60 day trial subscription.

If you’re not seeing SERIOUS returns within the first 60 days, we’ll issue a full refund, NO QUESTIONS ASKED.

To take out a trial subscription…

CLICK HERE NOW!!!

—————————————————————-

Understand, I’m not saying that rate hikes and QT are BAD. I’m saying that the PACE at which the Powell Fed is engaging in these policies is ridiculous. The market knows this which is why the yield curve is inverted and Emerging Market Stocks and Emerging market Currencies are imploding.

If the Fed doesn’t figure this out soon, we could very well see the carnage of the Emerging Markets space spread into the S&P 500. I remain VERY bullish in the intermediate term, but the Fed could make things NASTY in the short-term if it doesn’t fix this.

Ignore the bounce today. The markets are being propped up by pumping the five big Tech plays (AAPL, NFLX, MSFT, AMZN, FB). Underneath this facade, the US stocks are in SERIOUS trouble.

On that note, we are already preparing our clients for this with a 21-page investment report titled the Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline the coming collapse will unfold…which investments will perform best… and how to take out “crash” insurance trades that will pay out huge returns during a market collapse.

We’ve extended our offer to download this report FREE by one week. But this week is the last time this report will be available to the general public.

To pick up one of the last remaining copies…

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research