Month: March 2019

The Fed just realized two things:

1)   It cannot normalize policy EVER without blowing up the Everything Bubble/  financial system.

2)   The Fed is well behind the curve when it comes to dealing with the next downturn.

Regarding #1, we’ve had some developments in the last week.

On Monday, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan published an article on one of the Fed’s websites outlining the risks to the corporate bond market.

U.S. nonfinancial corporate debt as a percentage of GDP is now higher than the prior peak reached at the end of 2008…Nonfinancial corporate bonds outstanding in the U.S. grew from approximately $2.2 trillion in 2008 to approximately $5.7 trillion at year-end 2018…

Source: The Dallas Fed

Kaplan is here admitting that the US corporate space is now MORE leveraged to the real economy than it was in 2008. He notes, that as a result of this, the US economy is MUCH more sensitive to interest rates.

An elevated level of corporate debt, along with the high level of U.S. government debt, is likely to mean that the U.S. economy is much more interest rate sensitive than it has been historically.

Source: The Dallas Fed

Even more astonishing Kaplan stated that THIS was the reason why the Fed has decided to stop hiking interest rates!

In January I suggested this was the primary reason why the Fed made such an abrupt U-turn regarding monetary policy. It’s truly extraordinary that a Fed President is confirming this in public.

Remember, the primary mandate of the Fed is to maintain financial stability. This inherently means downplaying risks/ potential threats to the financial system/economy. So as much as you or I would like the Fed to be bluntly honest, the fact is that the Fed has to sugarcoat things to avoid panics.

With that in mind, the above admission by Fed President Kaplan is BEYOND extraordinary. Here we have the head of a regional Federal Bank admitting on record that the financial system, specifically the corporate bond market, is now MORE leveraged than it was in 2008 as direct result of Fed policy.

Even more astonishing for a Fed official, Kaplan is admitting that the US economy is now much more sensitive to interest rates. Put another way, the entire US economy/ financial system has become one gigantic bubble that requires extreme monetary policy (extraordinarily low interest rates) to NOT blow up.

This is literally the definition of the Everything Bubble.

If you aren’t actively taking steps to prepare for this, you need to start NOW.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s coming down the pike when the Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here.

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Anyone who believes that the political left is the only group planning on seizing private capital is misguided…The Great Global Wealth Grab is going to involve BOTH sides of the political spectrum.

The fact is that the political right, lead by the Trump administration, is proposing extreme forms of Keynesian government spending. The US Government ran a $600+ billion budget deficit in 2017… at a time when the economy was growing at roughly ~3%.

Cheap debt is what fueled this deficit… just as it fueled every deficit of the last 40 years. That is a big reason why the massive debt bubble developed in the first place relative to GDP.

It’s only going to get worse from here. The Government is showing NO SIGNS cutting back on the spending. If anything, it’s ballooning.

Paid family leave is still a priority for the administration of President Donald Trump.

In his budget released on Monday, the President called for six weeks’ paid leave for new parents, including adoptive parents, to recover from child birth and care for their children. But specific details on how such a plan would work are still up in the air.

Source: CNBC

The big problem with this is that interest rates are rising, which means debt payments are rising too… which means the political elite will have to find new sources of capital to try and plug the gap.

That capital will come from wealth grabs and taxes.

Consider the following:

• The IMF has already called for a wealth tax of 10% on NET WEALTH.

• More than one Presidential candidate for the 2020 US Presidential Race has already openly called for a wealth tax in the US.

• Polls suggest that the majority of Americans support a wealth tax.

And if you think this will stop with the super wealthy, you’re mistaken. You could tax 100% of the wealth of the top 1% and it would finance the US deficit for less than six months.

Which means…

Cash grabs, wealth taxes, and more will soon be coming to Main Street America.

Indeed, we’ve uncovered a secret document outlining how the Fed plans to both seize and STEAL savings during the next crisis/ recession.

We detail this paper and outline three investment strategies you can implement right now to protect your capital from the Fed’s sinister plan in our Special Report The Great Global Wealth Grab.

We are making just 100 copies available for FREE the general public.

You can pick up a FREE copy at:

http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/GWG.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Anyone who believes that the political left is the only group planning on seizing private capital is misguided…The Great Global Wealth Grab is going to involve BOTH sides of the political spectrum.

The fact is that the political right, lead by the Trump administration, is proposing extreme forms of Keynesian government spending. The US Government ran a $600+ billion budget deficit in 2017… at a time when the economy was growing at roughly ~3%.

Cheap debt is what fueled this deficit… just as it fueled every deficit of the last 40 years. That is a big reason why the massive debt bubble developed in the first place relative to GDP.

It’s only going to get worse from here. The Government is showing NO SIGNS cutting back on the spending. If anything, it’s ballooning.

Paid family leave is still a priority for the administration of President Donald Trump.

In his budget released on Monday, the President called for six weeks’ paid leave for new parents, including adoptive parents, to recover from child birth and care for their children. But specific details on how such a plan would work are still up in the air.

Source: CNBC

The big problem with this is that interest rates are rising, which means debt payments are rising too… which means the political elite will have to find new sources of capital to try and plug the gap.

That capital will come from wealth grabs and taxes.

Consider the following:

• The IMF has already called for a wealth tax of 10% on NET WEALTH.

• More than one Presidential candidate for the 2020 US Presidential Race has already openly called for a wealth tax in the US.

• Polls suggest that the majority of Americans support a wealth tax.

And if you think this will stop with the super wealthy, you’re mistaken. You could tax 100% of the wealth of the top 1% and it would finance the US deficit for less than six months.

Which means…

Cash grabs, wealth taxes, and more will soon be coming to Main Street America.

Indeed, we’ve uncovered a secret document outlining how the Fed plans to both seize and STEAL savings during the next crisis/ recession.

We detail this paper and outline three investment strategies you can implement right now to protect your capital from the Fed’s sinister plan in our Special Report The Great Global Wealth Grab.

We are making just 100 copies available for FREE the general public.

You can pick up a FREE copy at:

http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/GWG.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Anyone who believes that the political left is the only group planning on seizing private capital is misguided…The Great Global Wealth Grab is going to involve BOTH sides of the political spectrum.

The fact is that the political right, lead by the Trump administration, is proposing extreme forms of Keynesian government spending. The US Government ran a $600+ billion budget deficit in 2017… at a time when the economy was growing at roughly ~3%.

Cheap debt is what fueled this deficit… just as it fueled every deficit of the last 40 years. That is a big reason why the massive debt bubble developed in the first place relative to GDP.

It’s only going to get worse from here. The Government is showing NO SIGNS cutting back on the spending. If anything, it’s ballooning.

Paid family leave is still a priority for the administration of President Donald Trump.

In his budget released on Monday, the President called for six weeks’ paid leave for new parents, including adoptive parents, to recover from child birth and care for their children. But specific details on how such a plan would work are still up in the air.

Source: CNBC

The big problem with this is that interest rates are rising, which means debt payments are rising too… which means the political elite will have to find new sources of capital to try and plug the gap.

That capital will come from wealth grabs and taxes.

Consider the following:

• The IMF has already called for a wealth tax of 10% on NET WEALTH.

• More than one Presidential candidate for the 2020 US Presidential Race has already openly called for a wealth tax in the US.

• Polls suggest that the majority of Americans support a wealth tax.

And if you think this will stop with the super wealthy, you’re mistaken. You could tax 100% of the wealth of the top 1% and it would finance the US deficit for less than six months.

Which means…

Cash grabs, wealth taxes, and more will soon be coming to Main Street America.

Indeed, we’ve uncovered a secret document outlining how the Fed plans to both seize and STEAL savings during the next crisis/ recession.

We detail this paper and outline three investment strategies you can implement right now to protect your capital from the Fed’s sinister plan in our Special Report The Great Global Wealth Grab.

We are making just 100 copies available for FREE the general public.

You can pick up a FREE copy at:

http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/GWG.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Anyone who believes that the political left is the only group planning on seizing private capital is misguided…The Great Global Wealth Grab is going to involve BOTH sides of the political spectrum.

The fact is that the political right, lead by the Trump administration, is proposing extreme forms of Keynesian government spending. The US Government ran a $600+ billion budget deficit in 2017… at a time when the economy was growing at roughly ~3%.

Cheap debt is what fueled this deficit… just as it fueled every deficit of the last 40 years. That is a big reason why the massive debt bubble developed in the first place relative to GDP.

It’s only going to get worse from here. The Government is showing NO SIGNS cutting back on the spending. If anything, it’s ballooning.

Paid family leave is still a priority for the administration of President Donald Trump.

In his budget released on Monday, the President called for six weeks’ paid leave for new parents, including adoptive parents, to recover from child birth and care for their children. But specific details on how such a plan would work are still up in the air.

Source: CNBC

The big problem with this is that interest rates are rising, which means debt payments are rising too… which means the political elite will have to find new sources of capital to try and plug the gap.

That capital will come from wealth grabs and taxes.

Consider the following:

• The IMF has already called for a wealth tax of 10% on NET WEALTH.

• More than one Presidential candidate for the 2020 US Presidential Race has already openly called for a wealth tax in the US.

• Polls suggest that the majority of Americans support a wealth tax.

And if you think this will stop with the super wealthy, you’re mistaken. You could tax 100% of the wealth of the top 1% and it would finance the US deficit for less than six months.

Which means…

Cash grabs, wealth taxes, and more will soon be coming to Main Street America.

Indeed, we’ve uncovered a secret document outlining how the Fed plans to both seize and STEAL savings during the next crisis/ recession.

We detail this paper and outline three investment strategies you can implement right now to protect your capital from the Fed’s sinister plan in our Special Report The Great Global Wealth Grab.

We are making just 100 copies available for FREE the general public.

You can pick up a FREE copy at:

http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/GWG.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

The Fed is truly in a panic.

Let’s take a big picture perspective of the last year or so.

Throughout 2018, the Fed claimed it could normalize policy (raise rates and shrink its balance sheet).  Heck, the Fed didn’t just claim this, it was supremely confident of it.

Indeed, the Fed was still pushing this narrative as late as August, when most of the Emerging Market space and many economically sensitive asset classes had already collapsed 30%.

US stocks finally joined in the carnage in October, dropping 20% from peak to trough into late December. The Fed then suddenly came out an abandoned ALL of its talk of normalization. And stocks bounced.

In chart form, we’re talking about the following: 

Now, here’s where it gets interesting… despite the bounce in stocks and the recovery in the credit markets starting in December, the Fed didn’t start talking about normalizing policy again… instead it started talking about introducing EMERGENCY monetary policies.

————————————————-

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Since inception in 2015, this trading system has produced average annual gains of 41%.

And it’s doing this with just one trade once per week. In fact we just closed a 12% gain last week.

We are closing the doors on this system to new clients on Friday this week.

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————————————————-

If the issue was really just about stocks dropping… and if things were really just fine “behind the scenes” with the US financial system, why is the Fed talking about doing things like making QE a REGULAR (not emergency) policy or introducing NEGATIVE interest rates?

Even more bizarre… current Fed Chair Jerome Powell appeared on 60 Minutes last night along with former Fed Chairs Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen… in a clear an obvious PR move to provide assurance to the markets.

So, in chart form, we’re talking about the Fed doing all of this while the markets are doing the following:

Again… if everything is fine and dandy, WHY is the Fed panicking like this?

I suspect it’s because the Fed has realized what I’ve been warning about for years… that you CANNOT normalize an Everything Bubble. And worse still, its attempts to do so have already triggered the beginnings of the next crisis.

Indeed, the stock market telling us that the bull market is OVER.

The fact is that the long-term monthly S&P 500 chart shows a CLEAR rejection at its former bull market trendline. There’s really not much but air between here and 2,050 or so on the S&P 500.

That’s a 25% drop from here… so we’re talking about a literal CRASH.

If you aren’t actively taking steps to prepare for this, you need to start NOW.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s coming down the pike when the Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here.

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

The Fed is truly in a panic.

Let’s take a big picture perspective of the last year or so.

Throughout 2018, the Fed claimed it could normalize policy (raise rates and shrink its balance sheet).  Heck, the Fed didn’t just claim this, it was supremely confident of it.

Indeed, the Fed was still pushing this narrative as late as August, when most of the Emerging Market space and many economically sensitive asset classes had already collapsed 30%.

US stocks finally joined in the carnage in October, dropping 20% from peak to trough into late December. The Fed then suddenly came out an abandoned ALL of its talk of normalization. And stocks bounced.

In chart form, we’re talking about the following: 

Now, here’s where it gets interesting… despite the bounce in stocks and the recovery in the credit markets starting in December, the Fed didn’t start talking about normalizing policy again… instead it started talking about introducing EMERGENCY monetary policies.

————————————————-

Who said getting rich from trading was hard?

Since inception in 2015, this trading system has produced average annual gains of 41%.

And it’s doing this with just one trade once per week. In fact we just closed a 12% gain last week.

We are closing the doors on this system to new clients on Friday this week.

To lock in one of the last slots…

Click Here Now!

————————————————-

If the issue was really just about stocks dropping… and if things were really just fine “behind the scenes” with the US financial system, why is the Fed talking about doing things like making QE a REGULAR (not emergency) policy or introducing NEGATIVE interest rates?

Even more bizarre… current Fed Chair Jerome Powell appeared on 60 Minutes last night along with former Fed Chairs Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen… in a clear an obvious PR move to provide assurance to the markets.

So, in chart form, we’re talking about the Fed doing all of this while the markets are doing the following:

Again… if everything is fine and dandy, WHY is the Fed panicking like this?

I suspect it’s because the Fed has realized what I’ve been warning about for years… that you CANNOT normalize an Everything Bubble. And worse still, its attempts to do so have already triggered the beginnings of the next crisis.

Indeed, the stock market telling us that the bull market is OVER.

The fact is that the long-term monthly S&P 500 chart shows a CLEAR rejection at its former bull market trendline. There’s really not much but air between here and 2,050 or so on the S&P 500.

That’s a 25% drop from here… so we’re talking about a literal CRASH.

If you aren’t actively taking steps to prepare for this, you need to start NOW.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s coming down the pike when the Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here.

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research