Stocks staged a sharp bounce after the early to mid -arch meltdown. However, they’re running into trouble at the 50% retracement level (2,790 on the S&P 500).
This is bad news. Typically, during a V-recovery in the markets, stocks should have little if any difficulty in tracing 50% of their initial decline.
We get a similar warning from the ratio between the S&P 500 and Treasuries. This ratio is struggling at resistance which suggests the system is moving towards a “risk off” environment.
And then there’s the VIX which typically moves higher when stocks collapse. The VIX is forming a bullish falling wedge formation which could resolve in a big move higher.
Add it all up and the financial system is giving us multiple warnings that we could see another sharp drop lower in the markets.
On that note, if you’re worried about weathering a potential market crash, we’ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public.
Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).
Today is the last day this report will be available to the public.
To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:
Stocks staged a sharp bounce after the early to mid -arch meltdown. However, they’re running into trouble at the 50% retracement level (2,790 on the S&P 500).
This is bad news. Typically, during a V-recovery in the markets, stocks should have little if any difficulty in tracing 50% of their initial decline.
We get a similar warning from the ratio between the S&P 500 and Treasuries. This ratio is struggling at resistance which suggests the system is moving towards a “risk off” environment.
And then there’s the VIX which typically moves higher when stocks collapse. The VIX is forming a bullish falling wedge formation which could resolve in a big move higher.
Add it all up and the financial system is giving us multiple warnings that we could see another sharp drop lower in the markets.
On that note, if you’re worried about weathering a potential market crash, we’ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public.
Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).
Today is the last day this report will be available to the public.
To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:
Stocks staged a sharp bounce after the early to mid -arch meltdown. However, they’re running into trouble at the 50% retracement level (2,790 on the S&P 500).
This is bad news. Typically, during a V-recovery in the markets, stocks should have little if any difficulty in tracing 50% of their initial decline.
We get a similar warning from the ratio between the S&P 500 and Treasuries. This ratio is struggling at resistance which suggests the system is moving towards a “risk off” environment.
And then there’s the VIX which typically moves higher when stocks collapse. The VIX is forming a bullish falling wedge formation which could resolve in a big move higher.
Add it all up and the financial system is giving us multiple warnings that we could see another sharp drop lower in the markets.
On that note, if you’re worried about weathering a potential market crash, we’ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public.
Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).
Today is the last day this report will be available to the public.
To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:
The initial “sugar high” from the Fed throwing trillions of dollars at the financial system is ending. And various ratios I track are suggesting we could have a period of “risk off” or consolidation.
Ratio work consists of comparing one asset class’s performance to that of another. When you do this for a risk asset like stocks, compared to a safe haven like long-term Treasuries, it can provide some insights into whether the financial system is leaning towards risk on or risk off.
The below chart shows the ratio between the S&P 500 and the 10-Year US Treasury. As you can see, this ratio switched from risk off to risk on March 23rd and has since been moving in that direction. However, it is now at resistance.
This would suggest a pullback for this chart, which would mean a period of “risk off” or at the very least a consolidation for the stock market rally.
On that note, if you’re worried about weathering a potential market crash, we’ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public.
Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).
Today is the last day this report will be available to the public.
To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:
The initial “sugar high” from the Fed throwing trillions of dollars at the financial system is ending. And various ratios I track are suggesting we could have a period of “risk off” or consolidation.
Ratio work consists of comparing one asset class’s performance to that of another. When you do this for a risk asset like stocks, compared to a safe haven like long-term Treasuries, it can provide some insights into whether the financial system is leaning towards risk on or risk off.
The below chart shows the ratio between the S&P 500 and the 10-Year US Treasury. As you can see, this ratio switched from risk off to risk on March 23rd and has since been moving in that direction. However, it is now at resistance.
This would suggest a pullback for this chart, which would mean a period of “risk off” or at the very least a consolidation for the stock market rally.
On that note, if you’re worried about weathering a potential market crash, we’ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public.
Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).
Today is the last day this report will be available to the public.
To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:
Wall Street begins reporting earnings for the first quarter this week.
Everyone expects earnings will be a disaster. After all, the economy first slowed, then ground to a complete halt last quarter. The issue now, as far as traders are concerned, is whether the results surprise to the downside, meaning, things are in fact worse than everyone already assumes.
The markets are preparing for their next major move.
The S&P 500 is struggling to break above the 50% retracement of its collapse. If it cannot break above here and continue to rally, then we could see another collapse.
Similarly, Treasuries, which are a safe haven, remain extremely close to their all-time highs. Given that things are supposed to be improving… shouldn’t bonds be breaking down more? Are these bonds warning us there’s more trouble ahead?
On that note, if you’re worried about weathering a potential market crash, we’ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public.
Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).
Today is the last day this report will be available to the public.
To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:
Wall Street begins reporting earnings for the first quarter this week.
Everyone expects earnings will be a disaster. After all, the economy first slowed, then ground to a complete halt last quarter. The issue now, as far as traders are concerned, is whether the results surprise to the downside, meaning, things are in fact worse than everyone already assumes.
The markets are preparing for their next major move.
The S&P 500 is struggling to break above the 50% retracement of its collapse. If it cannot break above here and continue to rally, then we could see another collapse.
Similarly, Treasuries, which are a safe haven, remain extremely close to their all-time highs. Given that things are supposed to be improving… shouldn’t bonds be breaking down more? Are these bonds warning us there’s more trouble ahead?
On that note, if you’re worried about weathering a potential market crash, we’ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public.
Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).
Today is the last day this report will be available to the public.
To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:
Wall Street begins reporting earnings for the first quarter this week.
Everyone expects earnings will be a disaster. After all, the economy first slowed, then ground to a complete halt last quarter. The issue now, as far as traders are concerned, is whether the results surprise to the downside, meaning, things are in fact worse than everyone already assumes.
The markets are preparing for their next major move.
The S&P 500 is struggling to break above the 50% retracement of its collapse. If it cannot break above here and continue to rally, then we could see another collapse.
Similarly, Treasuries, which are a safe haven, remain extremely close to their all-time highs. Given that things are supposed to be improving… shouldn’t bonds be breaking down more? Are these bonds warning us there’s more trouble ahead?
On that note, if you’re worried about weathering a potential market crash, we’ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public.
Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).
Today is the last day this report will be available to the public.
To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:
Last Thursday the Fed effectively nationalized the U.S. debt markets.
On Thursday the Fed announced a $2.3 trillion (with a “T”) monetary program.
In its simplest rendering, the Fed announced it would expand its current Quantitative Easing (QE) programs for municipal bonds, asset backed securities, and investment grade corporate debt. The Fed also announced it would begin buying junk bonds for the first time in history.
Thus, the Fed is now intervening directly in:
1) The Treasury markets.
2) The municipal bond markets.
3) The corporate bond markets (both investment grade and junk).
4) The commercial paper markets (short-term corporate debt market).
5) The asset backed security market (everything from student loans to Certificates of Deposit and more).
At this point the only asset classes the Fed isn’t buying outright via a QE program are stocks and commodities. It is, however, worth noting that the Fed is buying bond Exchange Traded Funds or ETFs which trade on the stock market just like regular stocks.
Again, the Fed has effectively nationalized the U.S. debt markets. All in the span of just six weeks.
It is almost impossible to express the insanity of this. Perhaps the easiest way would be to say the Fed just printed the GDP of Brazil in last six weeks and is planning on printing the GDP of France in the next six weeks.
The multitrillion dollar question now is if this will stop the meltdown triggered by the economic shutdown in the U.S.
Going by the charts right now the answer is “yes.”
Investment grade bonds (black line), junk bonds blue line) and stocks (red line) are all moving sharply higher. In fact, stocks are actually the weakest performers here, trailing the other two by a wide margin.
However, the bigger issue… and it’s the one that may lead to a second round of the crisis is:
What is the actual economic damage caused by the Covid-19 panic and subsequent economic shutdown?
Throwing trillions of dollars at the financial system doesn’t mean that consumer spending is going to come back in a major way.
Cutting interest rates and buying asset backed securities doesn’t make people want to go to restaurants, or go out shopping, or attend sporting events.
Put another way, if the consumer doesn’t come back in a BIG way relatively quickly, then we will indeed find ourselves in a significant prolonged recession.
And that would trigger another round of the financial crisis.
On that note, if you’re worried about weathering a potential market crash, we’ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public.
Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).
Today is the last day this report will be available to the public.
To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:
Last Thursday the Fed effectively nationalized the U.S. debt markets.
On Thursday the Fed announced a $2.3 trillion (with a “T”) monetary program.
In its simplest rendering, the Fed announced it would expand its current Quantitative Easing (QE) programs for municipal bonds, asset backed securities, and investment grade corporate debt. The Fed also announced it would begin buying junk bonds for the first time in history.
Thus, the Fed is now intervening directly in:
1) The Treasury markets.
2) The municipal bond markets.
3) The corporate bond markets (both investment grade and junk).
4) The commercial paper markets (short-term corporate debt market).
5) The asset backed security market (everything from student loans to Certificates of Deposit and more).
At this point the only asset classes the Fed isn’t buying outright via a QE program are stocks and commodities. It is, however, worth noting that the Fed is buying bond Exchange Traded Funds or ETFs which trade on the stock market just like regular stocks.
Again, the Fed has effectively nationalized the U.S. debt markets. All in the span of just six weeks.
It is almost impossible to express the insanity of this. Perhaps the easiest way would be to say the Fed just printed the GDP of Brazil in last six weeks and is planning on printing the GDP of France in the next six weeks.
The multitrillion dollar question now is if this will stop the meltdown triggered by the economic shutdown in the U.S.
Going by the charts right now the answer is “yes.”
Investment grade bonds (black line), junk bonds blue line) and stocks (red line) are all moving sharply higher. In fact, stocks are actually the weakest performers here, trailing the other two by a wide margin.
However, the bigger issue… and it’s the one that may lead to a second round of the crisis is:
What is the actual economic damage caused by the Covid-19 panic and subsequent economic shutdown?
Throwing trillions of dollars at the financial system doesn’t mean that consumer spending is going to come back in a major way.
Cutting interest rates and buying asset backed securities doesn’t make people want to go to restaurants, or go out shopping, or attend sporting events.
Put another way, if the consumer doesn’t come back in a BIG way relatively quickly, then we will indeed find ourselves in a significant prolonged recession.
And that would trigger another round of the financial crisis.
On that note, if you’re worried about weathering a potential market crash, we’ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public.
Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).
Today is the last day this report will be available to the public.
To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:
Last Thursday the Fed effectively nationalized the U.S. debt markets.
On Thursday the Fed announced a $2.3 trillion (with a “T”) monetary program.
In its simplest rendering, the Fed announced it would expand its current Quantitative Easing (QE) programs for municipal bonds, asset backed securities, and investment grade corporate debt. The Fed also announced it would begin buying junk bonds for the first time in history.
Thus, the Fed is now intervening directly in:
1) The Treasury markets.
2) The municipal bond markets.
3) The corporate bond markets (both investment grade and junk).
4) The commercial paper markets (short-term corporate debt market).
5) The asset backed security market (everything from student loans to Certificates of Deposit and more).
At this point the only asset classes the Fed isn’t buying outright via a QE program are stocks and commodities. It is, however, worth noting that the Fed is buying bond Exchange Traded Funds or ETFs which trade on the stock market just like regular stocks.
Again, the Fed has effectively nationalized the U.S. debt markets. All in the span of just six weeks.
It is almost impossible to express the insanity of this. Perhaps the easiest way would be to say the Fed just printed the GDP of Brazil in last six weeks and is planning on printing the GDP of France in the next six weeks.
The multitrillion dollar question now is if this will stop the meltdown triggered by the economic shutdown in the U.S.
Going by the charts right now the answer is “yes.”
Investment grade bonds (black line), junk bonds blue line) and stocks (red line) are all moving sharply higher. In fact, stocks are actually the weakest performers here, trailing the other two by a wide margin.
However, the bigger issue… and it’s the one that may lead to a second round of the crisis is:
What is the actual economic damage caused by the Covid-19 panic and subsequent economic shutdown?
Throwing trillions of dollars at the financial system doesn’t mean that consumer spending is going to come back in a major way.
Cutting interest rates and buying asset backed securities doesn’t make people want to go to restaurants, or go out shopping, or attend sporting events.
Put another way, if the consumer doesn’t come back in a BIG way relatively quickly, then we will indeed find ourselves in a significant prolonged recession.
And that would trigger another round of the financial crisis.
On that note, if you’re worried about weathering a potential market crash, we’ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public.
Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).
Today is the last day this report will be available to the public.
To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:
The financial system today is trying to figure out what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object.
The Unstoppable Force= the Everything Bubble bursting as debt markets collapse around.
The Immovable Object= the Federal Reserve and its decision to buy EVERYTHING to stop the panic.
Regarding #1, in March we saw numerous debt bubbles burst including high yield corporate debt, investment grade corporate debt, high yield muni debt, and even investment grade muni debt.
The Fed, in an effort to stop this, announced several weeks ago that it would be buying everything. And I do mean EVERYTHING.
The Fed announced it would:
Make its quantitative easing (QE) program “unlimited.” Meaning it would simply print money and buy assets ad infinitum.
Increase the scope of its QE program from simply buying U.S. Treasuries and mortgage backed securities to include:Expand its money market QE to also include a “wider range of securities” including certificates of deposits (CDs).
Corporate debt (debt issued by corporations).
Corporate debt-related ETFs (stock funds linked to corporate debt).
Municipal debt (debt issued by states, counties, and cities).
Expand its commercial paper QE program.
Introduce a new QE program to buy any asset-backed security (ABS) including student debt.
Soon begin a bailout program for small- and medium-sized business.
Lower the interest rate on its repo programs from 0.15% to LITERAL ZERO (meaning NO interest charged).
Not the Fed was buying everything including CDs, student loans, muni bonds, corporate bonds, etc. As a friend of mine joked, the only thing the Fed wasn’t buying was NFL contracts.
We are now in the process of watching to see if the Fed has succeeded or not. That is… has the Fed’s move to backstop the entire financial system been enough to stop the panic.
Thus far the answer is a resounding yes. Risk assets are up across the board and stocks are moving to retrace 50% of the initial drop in March.
However, the bigger issue… and it’s the one that may lead to a second round of the crisis is:
What is the actual economic damage caused by the Covid-19 panic and subsequent economic shutdown?
Throwing trillions of dollars at the financial system doesn’t mean that consumer spending is going to come back in a major way.
Cutting interest rates and buying asset backed securities doesn’t make people want to go to restaurants, or go out shopping, or attend sporting events.
Put another way, if the consumer doesn’t come back in a BIG way relatively quickly, then we will indeed find ourselves in a significant prolonged recession.
And that would trigger another round of the financial crisis.
With that in mind, if you’re concerned about how your portfolio might handle a crash,
On that note, if you’re worried about weathering a potential market crash, we’ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public.
Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).
Today is the last day this report will be available to the public.
To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:
The financial system today is trying to figure out what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object.
The Unstoppable Force= the Everything Bubble bursting as debt markets collapse around.
The Immovable Object= the Federal Reserve and its decision to buy EVERYTHING to stop the panic.
Regarding #1, in March we saw numerous debt bubbles burst including high yield corporate debt, investment grade corporate debt, high yield muni debt, and even investment grade muni debt.
The Fed, in an effort to stop this, announced several weeks ago that it would be buying everything. And I do mean EVERYTHING.
The Fed announced it would:
Make its quantitative easing (QE) program “unlimited.” Meaning it would simply print money and buy assets ad infinitum.
Increase the scope of its QE program from simply buying U.S. Treasuries and mortgage backed securities to include:Expand its money market QE to also include a “wider range of securities” including certificates of deposits (CDs).
Corporate debt (debt issued by corporations).
Corporate debt-related ETFs (stock funds linked to corporate debt).
Municipal debt (debt issued by states, counties, and cities).
Expand its commercial paper QE program.
Introduce a new QE program to buy any asset-backed security (ABS) including student debt.
Soon begin a bailout program for small- and medium-sized business.
Lower the interest rate on its repo programs from 0.15% to LITERAL ZERO (meaning NO interest charged).
Not the Fed was buying everything including CDs, student loans, muni bonds, corporate bonds, etc. As a friend of mine joked, the only thing the Fed wasn’t buying was NFL contracts.
We are now in the process of watching to see if the Fed has succeeded or not. That is… has the Fed’s move to backstop the entire financial system been enough to stop the panic.
Thus far the answer is a resounding yes. Risk assets are up across the board and stocks are moving to retrace 50% of the initial drop in March.
However, the bigger issue… and it’s the one that may lead to a second round of the crisis is:
What is the actual economic damage caused by the Covid-19 panic and subsequent economic shutdown?
Throwing trillions of dollars at the financial system doesn’t mean that consumer spending is going to come back in a major way.
Cutting interest rates and buying asset backed securities doesn’t make people want to go to restaurants, or go out shopping, or attend sporting events.
Put another way, if the consumer doesn’t come back in a BIG way relatively quickly, then we will indeed find ourselves in a significant prolonged recession.
And that would trigger another round of the financial crisis.
With that in mind, if you’re concerned about how your portfolio might handle a crash,
On that note, if you’re worried about weathering a potential market crash, we’ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public.
Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).
Today is the last day this report will be available to the public.
To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:
The financial system today is trying to figure out what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object.
The Unstoppable Force= the Everything Bubble bursting as debt markets collapse around.
The Immovable Object= the Federal Reserve and its decision to buy EVERYTHING to stop the panic.
Regarding #1, in March we saw numerous debt bubbles burst including high yield corporate debt, investment grade corporate debt, high yield muni debt, and even investment grade muni debt.
The Fed, in an effort to stop this, announced several weeks ago that it would be buying everything. And I do mean EVERYTHING.
The Fed announced it would:
Make its quantitative easing (QE) program “unlimited.” Meaning it would simply print money and buy assets ad infinitum.
Increase the scope of its QE program from simply buying U.S. Treasuries and mortgage backed securities to include:Expand its money market QE to also include a “wider range of securities” including certificates of deposits (CDs).
Corporate debt (debt issued by corporations).
Corporate debt-related ETFs (stock funds linked to corporate debt).
Municipal debt (debt issued by states, counties, and cities).
Expand its commercial paper QE program.
Introduce a new QE program to buy any asset-backed security (ABS) including student debt.
Soon begin a bailout program for small- and medium-sized business.
Lower the interest rate on its repo programs from 0.15% to LITERAL ZERO (meaning NO interest charged).
Not the Fed was buying everything including CDs, student loans, muni bonds, corporate bonds, etc. As a friend of mine joked, the only thing the Fed wasn’t buying was NFL contracts.
We are now in the process of watching to see if the Fed has succeeded or not. That is… has the Fed’s move to backstop the entire financial system been enough to stop the panic.
Thus far the answer is a resounding yes. Risk assets are up across the board and stocks are moving to retrace 50% of the initial drop in March.
However, the bigger issue… and it’s the one that may lead to a second round of the crisis is:
What is the actual economic damage caused by the Covid-19 panic and subsequent economic shutdown?
Throwing trillions of dollars at the financial system doesn’t mean that consumer spending is going to come back in a major way.
Cutting interest rates and buying asset backed securities doesn’t make people want to go to restaurants, or go out shopping, or attend sporting events.
Put another way, if the consumer doesn’t come back in a BIG way relatively quickly, then we will indeed find ourselves in a significant prolonged recession.
And that would trigger another round of the financial crisis.
With that in mind, if you’re concerned about how your portfolio might handle a crash,
On that note, if you’re worried about weathering a potential market crash, we’ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public.
Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).
Today is the last day this report will be available to the public.
To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:
The S&P 500 has clearly broken its downtrend (red lines). It is now bouncing in an uptrend (blue lines). The issue is whether it can continue to do so or if another leg down is coming.
I have no idea which outcome will occur. No one does. So, we need to monitor the financial system for hints of what is to come.
Investment grade credit has broken above resistance. This is good news for the bulls.
However, high yield credit, which typically leads risk, has broken down below support and is struggling to reclaim it.
This is precisely the kind of confusing action you would expect in a bear market.
Remember, stocks DO NOT rally ~20% in a matter of days during bull markets. These kinds of explosive moves only occur during BEAR markets.
So, while it’s tempting to go long here if you’re a “buy and hold” investor, doing so can be a BIG mistake. Many of the largest most aggressive bear market bounces were soon followed by major drops.
On that note, if you’re worried about weathering a potential market crash, we’ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public.
Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).
Today is the last day this report will be available to the public.
To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:
The S&P 500 has clearly broken its downtrend (red lines). It is now bouncing in an uptrend (blue lines). The issue is whether it can continue to do so or if another leg down is coming.
I have no idea which outcome will occur. No one does. So, we need to monitor the financial system for hints of what is to come.
Investment grade credit has broken above resistance. This is good news for the bulls.
However, high yield credit, which typically leads risk, has broken down below support and is struggling to reclaim it.
This is precisely the kind of confusing action you would expect in a bear market.
Remember, stocks DO NOT rally ~20% in a matter of days during bull markets. These kinds of explosive moves only occur during BEAR markets.
So, while it’s tempting to go long here if you’re a “buy and hold” investor, doing so can be a BIG mistake. Many of the largest most aggressive bear market bounces were soon followed by major drops.
On that note, if you’re worried about weathering a potential market crash, we’ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public.
Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).
Today is the last day this report will be available to the public.
To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:
The S&P 500 has clearly broken its downtrend (red lines). It is now bouncing in an uptrend (blue lines). The issue is whether it can continue to do so or if another leg down is coming.
I have no idea which outcome will occur. No one does. So, we need to monitor the financial system for hints of what is to come.
Investment grade credit has broken above resistance. This is good news for the bulls.
However, high yield credit, which typically leads risk, has broken down below support and is struggling to reclaim it.
This is precisely the kind of confusing action you would expect in a bear market.
Remember, stocks DO NOT rally ~20% in a matter of days during bull markets. These kinds of explosive moves only occur during BEAR markets.
So, while it’s tempting to go long here if you’re a “buy and hold” investor, doing so can be a BIG mistake. Many of the largest most aggressive bear market bounces were soon followed by major drops.
On that note, if you’re worried about weathering a potential market crash, we’ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public.
Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).
Today is the last day this report will be available to the public.
To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:
Stocks exploded higher yesterday on announcements that the coronavirus pandemic appears to be slowing.
The rally has continued in the overnight session. The S&P 500 will be opening north of 2,700, well above a 38.2% retracement and closing in on a 50% retracement of its collapse.
This is certainly an exciting development, but unfortunately, we are not yet in the all clear as far as systemic problems for the financial markets.
The debt markets (also called credit markets) are larger and more sophisticated than the stock markets.
Indeed, credit picked up on the corona-collapse weeks before stocks did (red circle vs. blue circle in the chart below).
With that in mind, the credit markets continue to signal MAJOR problems exist in the financial system. High yield credit has failed to catch a bid and is in fact trending DOWN during the last week.
Bear in mind, these are JUNK bonds, so you’d expect a struggle during an economic downturn. Far more worrisome is the fact that high quality credit (meaning credit for companies that are allegedly well financed/less risky) is ALSO struggling.
This is particularly concerning when you consider that the Fed has announced it will be buying these bonds with an unlimited budget.
By way of comparison, consider what these credit instruments did during the late 2018-early 2019 “V” bottom which resulted in one of the best years for stocks in history. At that time, investment grade credit only struggled with resistance for a day or two before exploding higher (see the action below the red line in the chart below). And that the Fed WASN’T buying these bonds at that time either!
Again, the credit markets are signaling something BAD is happening “behind the scenes” in the financial system.
Stocks believe the worst is over, but credit tells us that is not yet the case. And credit is usually right.
On that note, if you’re worried about weathering a potential market crash, we’ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public.
Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).
Today is the last day this report will be available to the public.
To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:
Stocks exploded higher yesterday on announcements that the coronavirus pandemic appears to be slowing.
The rally has continued in the overnight session. The S&P 500 will be opening north of 2,700, well above a 38.2% retracement and closing in on a 50% retracement of its collapse.
This is certainly an exciting development, but unfortunately, we are not yet in the all clear as far as systemic problems for the financial markets.
The debt markets (also called credit markets) are larger and more sophisticated than the stock markets.
Indeed, credit picked up on the corona-collapse weeks before stocks did (red circle vs. blue circle in the chart below).
With that in mind, the credit markets continue to signal MAJOR problems exist in the financial system. High yield credit has failed to catch a bid and is in fact trending DOWN during the last week.
Bear in mind, these are JUNK bonds, so you’d expect a struggle during an economic downturn. Far more worrisome is the fact that high quality credit (meaning credit for companies that are allegedly well financed/less risky) is ALSO struggling.
This is particularly concerning when you consider that the Fed has announced it will be buying these bonds with an unlimited budget.
By way of comparison, consider what these credit instruments did during the late 2018-early 2019 “V” bottom which resulted in one of the best years for stocks in history. At that time, investment grade credit only struggled with resistance for a day or two before exploding higher (see the action below the red line in the chart below). And that the Fed WASN’T buying these bonds at that time either!
Again, the credit markets are signaling something BAD is happening “behind the scenes” in the financial system.
Stocks believe the worst is over, but credit tells us that is not yet the case. And credit is usually right.
On that note, if you’re worried about weathering a potential market crash, we’ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public.
Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).
Today is the last day this report will be available to the public.
To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:
Stocks exploded higher yesterday on announcements that the coronavirus pandemic appears to be slowing.
The rally has continued in the overnight session. The S&P 500 will be opening north of 2,700, well above a 38.2% retracement and closing in on a 50% retracement of its collapse.
This is certainly an exciting development, but unfortunately, we are not yet in the all clear as far as systemic problems for the financial markets.
The debt markets (also called credit markets) are larger and more sophisticated than the stock markets.
Indeed, credit picked up on the corona-collapse weeks before stocks did (red circle vs. blue circle in the chart below).
With that in mind, the credit markets continue to signal MAJOR problems exist in the financial system. High yield credit has failed to catch a bid and is in fact trending DOWN during the last week.
Bear in mind, these are JUNK bonds, so you’d expect a struggle during an economic downturn. Far more worrisome is the fact that high quality credit (meaning credit for companies that are allegedly well financed/less risky) is ALSO struggling.
This is particularly concerning when you consider that the Fed has announced it will be buying these bonds with an unlimited budget.
By way of comparison, consider what these credit instruments did during the late 2018-early 2019 “V” bottom which resulted in one of the best years for stocks in history. At that time, investment grade credit only struggled with resistance for a day or two before exploding higher (see the action below the red line in the chart below). And that the Fed WASN’T buying these bonds at that time either!
Again, the credit markets are signaling something BAD is happening “behind the scenes” in the financial system.
Stocks believe the worst is over, but credit tells us that is not yet the case. And credit is usually right.
On that note, if you’re worried about weathering a potential market crash, we’ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public.
Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).
Today is the last day this report will be available to the public.
To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:
