Month: February 2021

Jerome Powell is Lying and We Will All Pay For It

Jerome Powell is Lying and We Will All Pay For It

At this point in my career, few things surprise me.

I’ve seen the housing boom, the Great Financial Crisis, the E.U. debt crisis, bail-ins, bail-outs, Fed chairs lying to congress, BREXIT, and President Trump.

However, what Fed Chair Jerome Powell said this week made my jaw hit the floor.

In his testimony to Congress, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated:

It may take three years for inflation to hit the Fed’s goal of 2%.

Three years, as in inflation won’t hit 2% until 2024.

Bear in mind, inflation, today, right now, is well over that. Bond yields which trade based on inflation have more than doubled since August.

Gasoline prices are up over 70% since November. Lumber prices are up 52% over the same time period. Copper is up 33%. Heck, the ENTIRE commodities complex as measured by the Commodity Research Bureau’s index is up 26%!

Chart, line chart, histogram

Description automatically generated

There is no sign of this stopping. Indeed, as Bill King notes, on the very day in which Fed Chair Powell was making these insane claims, gasoline surged 2%, oil surged 2.5%, copper rallied 3% and bonds collapsed.

This is akin got the financial system SCREAMING “INFLATION IS HERE!” in Powell’s ear. And he claims we won’t even hit inflation of 2% until 2024.

This is total insanity. And it is going to end horribly.

During the last bout of hot inflation in the 1970s, stocks initially bubbled up before CRASHING nearly 50% in the span of two years, wiping out ALL of their initial gains and then some.

Chart, bar chart, histogram

Description automatically generated

As I keep warning, inflation is going to ANNIHILATE investors’ portfolios.

On that note, if you’re worried about weathering a potential market crash, we’ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best RegardsParagraph

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in stock collapse?

Warning: A Bloodbath Could Be Just Around the Corner


The stock market is warning us that a real bloodbath could be around the corner.

Let’s take a look at some charts. 

The market action of the last week has been extremely problematic. On the surface things look relatively benign. The S&P 500 fell to test support and its 50-day moving average (DMA) and bounced hard.

All of this is just fine and no cause for major concern. But again, this is problematic because “under the hood” things have gotten downright nasty.

Tesla (TSLA) has been one of the most important market leaders for stocks since the March lows. It sliced through its 50-DMA with little to no trouble. Support held, but this was a very negative development and opens the door to a test of the 200-DMA.

It’s a similar story for TradeDesk (TTD) another market leader: support held, but we sliced through the 50-DMA like a hot knife through butter. Again, the door is now open to the 200-DMA.

These are market leaders. If they go to their 200-DMAs, the broader market will likely end up doing the same.

That’s a pretty significant drop.

Again, the market action of the last week is quite problematic. While the S&P 500 looks contained, market leaders have seen tremendous damage to their charts. With this in mind, the potential for a nasty drop is higher than at any point in the last six months. 

This all ties back to what I’ve been arguing for weeks now: that the inflationary forces rippling through the financial system will eventually HURT rather than help stocks. 

The reason for this is that the ONLY thing that allows stocks to remain in a bull market is if the debt markets are calm and stable.

They are not. The yield on the all-important 10-Year Treasury yield has more than doubled since August and is now on the verge of breaking its 40+ year downtrend.

This is a HUGE deal. The last time that downtrend broke was in 2018 and it resulted in the stock market losing 20% in a matter of weeks.

As I kept warning for weeks, the coming inflation is going to ANNIHILATE most investors’ portfolios.

On that note, if you’re worried about weathering a potential market crash, we’ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best RegardsParagraph

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in stock collapse?

The U.S. Will Print $7 TRILLION in the Next 24 Months


And the horrifying inflationary data points keep coming!

Over the last few weeks, we’ve outlined the following:

1.    If you add up all of the money the U.S. has ever printed… over 40% of it was printed in 2020 alone.

2.    In three months in 2020, the U.S. increased its deficit by more than it had during the past five recessions combined (’73, ’75, ’82, early ‘90s and Great Financial Crisis).

3.    Under Jerome Powell, the Fed bought more Treasuries in SIX WEEKS than it did in 10 years under Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen.

4.    Agricultural commodities prices are up nearly 40% since August.

5.    The Commodity Research Bureau’s Index is up 75% since April.

These items alone are horrifying… and unfortunately for the world, there are a slew of new ones to add to the list.

  • Copper traded over $8,900 per tonne last week, hitting a 10-year high.
  • That same week, Nickel traded a $18,534 per tonne, a six-year high.
  • Lumber cleared $1,000 per 1,000 board feet, for the first time in history.

Best of all… the Fed claims that there are no signs of inflation!

Last week NY Fed President John Williams told CNBC that rising prices are due to “optimism” about the growing economy. He also claimed that inflation expectations are rising but that he sees no evidence that asset prices are “out of control.”

So the financial system is SCREAMING that inflation is already running hot, and the Fed is asleep at the wheel.

It’s only going to get worse.

As I keep stating, once inflation appears in the financial system, the only thing that can stop it is if the Fed begins to tighten monetary conditions much as Paul Volcker did in the late ’70s early ’80s.

Well, the Fed continues to print $120+ billion every single month… and has announced it won’t raise rates for another TWO YEARS!

Two years… as in 2022 to 2023.

Put another way, the Fed is going to be printing another $2.8 trillion ($1.4 trillion per year for two years) going forward. Between this and the Biden administration’s $1.9 trillion stimulus program, $2 trillion infrastructure program, and $1.7 trillion climate change program, we’re talking about ~$7 TRILLION being printed in the next two years’ time.

$7 trillion… an amount equal to 33% of US GDP.

The coming inflation is going to ANNIHILATE most investors’ portfolios.

Those who are properly prepared. however, will make literal fortunes.

The coming inflation is going to ANNIHILATE most investors’ portfolios.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the public. We extended the deadline based on the weekend run in commodities, but this is it… no more extensions.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

Got Inflation? The Fed Just Printed Another $100+ BILLION This Week

Over the last few weeks, we’ve outlined some truly extraordinary facts pertaining to just how much money printing the Fed has performed.

As a brief recap:

1.    If you add up all of the money the U.S. has ever printed… over 40% of it was printed in 2020 alone.

2.    In three months in 2020, the U.S. increased its deficit by more than it had during the past five recessions combined (’73, ’75, ’82, early ‘90s and Great Financial Crisis).

3.    Under Jerome Powell, the Fed bought more Treasuries in SIX WEEKS than it did in 10 years under Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen.

All of this money printing has ignited an inflationary storm. The Fed refuses to acknowledge this, but the reality is staring us all in the face.

Put simply inflation is ripping through the financial system.

And the craziest thing? The Fed just printed another $100 BILLION this week alone.

That’s not a typo. On February 20Th the Fed balance sheet was $7.442 trillion. This week, it’s $7.557 trillion. The Fed balance sheet is not only at a new all-time high, but it’s now the size of the economies of Japan and the United Kingdom, COMBINED.

This is absolute madness. The media is claiming over and over that the COVID-19 pandemic is now under control and things will start returning to normal, but the Fed’s still printing over $120 billion in money per month.

At this pace, the Fed will print $1.4 TRILLION this year alone. Not billion, TRILLION with a T.

And they show no signs of stopping.

The coming inflation is going to ANNIHILATE most investors’ portfolios.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

This Might Be the Most Horrifying Thing You Read All Day

We’ve been outlining some pretty extraordinary items on these pages over the last few weeks.

As a brief recap:

1.    If you add up all of the money the U.S. has ever printed… over 40% of it was printed in 2020 alone.

2.    In three months in 2020, the U.S. increased its deficit by more than it had during the past five recessions combined (’73, ’75, ’82, early ‘90s and Great Financial Crisis).

3.    Under Jerome Powell, the Fed bought more Treasuries in SIX WEEKS than it did in 10 years under Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen.

4.    Agricultural commodities prices are up nearly 40% since August.

Well, buckle up, because today we’ve got a new astonishing fact…

The commodity index is up 75% since its April low, more than doubling the performance of stocks over the same time period.

Take a look at the above chart. Does this seem normal or healthy to you… that commodities, which are essentially inflation hedges, are more than DOUBLING the performance of stocks?

As I keep pounding the table, inflation has entered the financial system. And as we know from history, once inflation appears, nothing stops it except the Fed tightening monetary policy, by aggressively raising interest rates as Paul Volcker did in the late ‘70s early ‘80s.

However, the Fed is unwilling to even acknowledge that inflation is a problem right now.

Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Fed said earlier this week that inflationary pressures are now “downward,” meaning inflation is disappearing. She also added it’s “not time to worry about inflation risks right now.” And that doing so would cost the economy jobs.

As if that wasn’t baffling enough, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren commented yesterday that inflation is not likely to hit the Fed’s target until 2022. By the way, the Fed’s target is just 2%.

Real inflation is well north of this already. Year to date, agricultural commodities are up 6%, housing prices are up 8%, gasoline prices are up 34%, and lumber prices are up a whopping 37%.

And we have multiple Fed Presidents claiming that inflationary pressures are downward and that inflation won’t hit 2% until 2022!!

Folks, the Fed is asleep at the wheel and it’s going to allow inflation to rage out of control.

This is going to ANNIHILATE most investors’ portfolios.

Those who are properly prepared. however, will make literal fortunes.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

As I write this there are just 5 left.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

The U.S. is About to Set a Record… and It’s Not a Good One

The inflationary storm clouds continue to form on the horizon.

Yesterday I noted that the U.S. is printing money at an extraordinary pace.

How extraordinary?

The Fed alone will print $1.4 trillion in the next 12 months. This comes on the heels of the $3 TRILLION it has already printed in the last year.

The Fed is not alone here.

The Biden administration is pushing the “pedal to the metal” in terms of stimulus. It is about to pass a $1.9 trillion stimulus plan. Bloomberg notes that this will be the second largest injection of federal cash in U.S. history.  

The only one larger cash injection occurred was the first COVID-19 Stimulus plan (the CARES act) which was launched at the beginning of the pandemic.

We’re now on the tail end of the pandemic and we’re about to print another $1.9 trillion in stimulus. Bloomberg notes that the Biden administration wants to spend $2 trillion on climate change and $1.5 trillion on manufacturing and childcare.

These are staggering amounts of money. Never before in history has the U.S. printed this much money.

Add it all up and the U.S. will print an amount of money greater than the GDP of Japan, the third largest economy in the world.

All of this is going to unleash an inflationary storm.

Commodities have just broken out of a 10+ year bear market.

Gold was the first to figure this out.

Then Copper.

Now it’s Oil’s turn.

All of these charts are SCREAMING that inflation is coming. And as usual most investors are asleep at the wheel.


Those who are properly prepared. however, will make literal fortunes.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

As I write this there are just 5 left.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Central Bank Insanity
Warning: The Next Crisis is Just Around the Corner

Warning: The Next Crisis is Just Around the Corner


Get ready for a staggering admission.

If you add up all of the money the U.S. has ever printed… over 40% of it was printed in 2020 alone.

That is not a typo.

Patrick Bet-David pointed this out and he’s right: if you add up all of the money the U.S. ever printed since its founding… over 40% of it was printed last year. 

Bear in mind, we’re talking about money printing, NOT issuing credit or loans (the mechanism through which most “money” enters the system today). So, we’re talking about actual cash that goes into the economy.

As I keep emphasizing, when it comes to monetary policy and financial insanity, this time IS different. The amount of money printing policymakers used to fight the COVID-19 pandemic was unprecedented. It was BEYOND crazy.

Just how insane was all this money printing?

Investing legend Stanley Druckenmiller recently noted:

1)    In three months in 2020, the U.S. increased its deficit by more than it had during the past five recessions combined (’73, ’75, ’82, early ‘90s and Great Financial Crisis).

2)    Under Jerome Powell, the Fed bought more Treasuries in SIX WEEKS than it did in 10 years under Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen.

3)    Corporate borrowing, which usually drops during recessions actually INCREASED by $400 BILLION during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Again, this time IS different. And it’s going to unleash an inflationary storm that will annihilate portfolios and the real economy.

Indeed, the situation is so serious that former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers (no relation of mine) has stated that the Biden administration risks unleashing the worst inflation “in a generation.”

Bear in mind, Summers is a Democrat. So, he is not simply engaged in partisan politics here.

Again, an inflationary storm is coming. And it’s going to annihilate most investors.

Those who are properly prepared. however, will make literal fortunes.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

As I write this there are just 9 left.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation

Why the Market is Going to New All Time Highs


As I forecast to clients in last week’s Private Wealth Advisory, stocks have bounced hard off the 50-day moving average.

The bounce consisted of a clear breakout from the downward channel formed by last week’s correction (blue lines). As I write this, stocks have been rejected at resistance (red line in the chart below) and are sitting just below their all-time highs.

I expect we’ll see that line of resistance broken shortly.

Why?

Because the market is returning to “business as usual.”

The primary concern for the stock market last week was whether or not Wall Street remained in control of the financial system. Put another way, would the Gamestop (GME) phenomenon through which thousands of individual investors intentionally pushed a stock higher to hurt a hedge fund, would become the norm.

With the regulators cracking down on the GME scheme, it is clear that Wall Street has won this round.

I’m NOT saying that I like this situation, I’m simply saying that it is clear that the individual investors will not end up winning this war (how can they with Wall Street having the regulators, government and entire system covering for them?).

Put simply, the craziness of GME is subsiding and the system appears to be returning to “business as usual.” This is what the large pools of capital were looking for in order to start buying again.

And buy they shall. After all, their compensations depend on it.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

As I write this there are just 17 left.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation, It's a Bull Market

How to Profit As Precious Metals Explode Higher

The next leg up for precious metals has arrived.

During major bull runs in precious metals, silver typically outperforms gold.

With that in mind, I like to use the silver to gold ratio as a means of measuring this. When silver outperforms gold, this line rises and when silver underperforms gold, this line rises falls.

As I write this Monday morning, silver is up 10% while gold is barely up 1%. And the silver to gold ratio will finally be breaking out of the consolidation range that has controlled price since August 2020 (blue lines in the chart below).

A picture containing diagram

Description automatically generated

The big picture here is even more astonishing.

 The silver to gold ratio has broken out of a 10-year downtrend. Looking at this, it is clear the next bull market in precious metals is officially here.

Chart, line chart

Description automatically generated

I want to stress here that this is NOT just about the U.S. dollar getting weaker. Silver is breaking out to new highs priced in every major currency: Euros, Yen, and Francs.

This tells us that this is NOT just about the U.S. dollar losing value. This is a true bull market in which silver as an asset class has begun to rise globally.

Bear in mind, if you choose to invest in this sector, you need to ready to stomach some MAJOR volatility. It is not unusual for silver to rise or fall 5% in a single day, and silver miners can move double digits in hours.

So, if you’re interested in profiting from this, you HAVE to be willing to “buy and hold” and rise a roller coaster the whole way up.

Best Regards

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

As I write this there are just 19 left.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation