Month: March 2021

23
Mar
2021
The Bulls Fumbled the Ball Last Week, It’s About to Get UGLY

The Bulls Fumbled the Ball Last Week, It’s About to Get UGLY

The trend has ended for stocks. We can now expect a lot of chop.

The bulls really fumbled last week. They not only had the Fed behind them (the Fed printed over $100 billion that week), it was also options expiration week, which is Wall Street’s favorite time to manipulate the markets to insure as many options expire worthless as possible.

Despite this, stocks closed DOWN for the week. The S&P 500’s chart was truly pathetic.

Even the Dow Jones industrials, which has been a clear market leader, failed to end the week up. You can see how this index failed took out support (red line) and then failed to reclaim it. In technical analysis terms, this means former support is now resistance. And it is very bearish.

The onus is now on the bulls. They need to step in right here, right now and push the market up in a big way. If they don’t the trend is dead and we’re in for a correction down to the 3,700s.

You’ve been warned.

On that note, if you’re worried about weathering a potential market crash, we’ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best RegardsParagraph

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market
16
Mar
2021
Warning: The Fed is About to Blow Up the Bond Market

Warning: The Fed is About to Blow Up the Bond Market

Inflation expectations continue to soar.

The US 5-year Breakeven Rate just hit 2.6%. Granted I’m not a genius Fed official, but what does this image look like to you?

Remember, the Fed believes inflation won’t hit even 2% for three more years.

And then there’s the yield on the 10-Year US Treasury which is about to break its multi-decade downtrend for the second time since 1982.

By the way, the first break occurred when the Fed attempted to normalize monetary policy by raising rates and shrinking its balance sheet. THIS breakout is occurring while interest rates are at ZERO and the Fed is running a $125 billion per month QE program!

Those who believe that all this money printing and subsequent inflation it will unleash means stocks will forever go up need to brush up on their history.

Stocks love inflation at first, but that love quickly turns to hate. During the last bout of hot inflation in the 1970s, stocks initially bubbled up before CRASHING nearly 50% in the span of two years, wiping out ALL of their initial gains and then some.

As I keep warning, inflation is going to ANNIHILATE investors’ portfolios.

Those who are properly prepared. however, will make literal fortunes.

On that note, if you’re worried about weathering a potential market crash, we’ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best RegardsParagraph

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market
12
Mar
2021
The Dark Secret the Fed Wants to Keep Hidden

The Dark Secret the Fed Wants to Keep Hidden

The Fed has already told us what is coming down the pike.

But no one is listening.

The Federal Reserve system employs roughly 20,000 people.  I believe it is the single largest employer of economists in the U.S. And as a result of this, it actually produces a decent amount of high-quality research.

The problem is that NO ONE at the top of the Fed listens to it!

Case in point, in 2001, researchers at the Federal Reserve bank of St Louis discovered that the Fed’s preferred measures of inflation are the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) were in fact useless at predicting future inflation.

At the time they wrote:

We see that past inflation in food prices has been a better forecaster of future inflation than has the popular core measure…Comparing the past year’s inflation in food prices to the prices of other components that comprise the PCEPI (as in Table 1), we find that the food component still ranks the best among them all… 

Source: Federal Reserve bank of St Louis

Despite this discovery, the Fed continues to use CPI and PCE as its preferred measures of inflation. Put another way, despite the fact that the Fed’s OWN RESEARCHERS proves that CPI and PCE are garbage, the Fed keeps using them.

And if you think that’s bad, take a look at what the Fed discovered in NOVEMBER 2019 when it comes to printing money to service debt. 

A solution some countries with high levels of unsustainable debt have tried is printing money. In this scenario, the government borrows money by issuing bonds and then orders the central bank to buy those bonds by creating (printing) money. History has taught us, however, that this type of policy leads to extremely high rates of inflation (hyperinflation) and often ends in economic ruin. 

Source: Federal Reserve bank of St Louis

Yes, the Fed’s own research has found that printing money and using it to buy debt results in raging inflation and economic ruin.

Bear in mind, that the Fed has printed $3+ trillion over the last 12 months for this express reason… and intends to print $120 billion per month for the next TWO YEARS (another $2.8 trillion).

Those who believe that all this money printing and subsequent inflation it will unleash  means stocks will forever go up need to brush up on their history.

Stocks love inflation at first, but that love quickly turns to hate. During the last bout of hot inflation in the 1970s, stocks initially bubbled up before CRASHING nearly 50% in the span of two years, wiping out ALL of their initial gains and then some.

As I keep warning, inflation is going to ANNIHILATE investors’ portfolios.

Those who are properly prepared. however, will make literal fortunes.

On that note, if you’re worried about weathering a potential market crash, we’ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best RegardsParagraph

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Central Bank Insanity
09
Mar
2021

Ignore the Bounce, the Stock Market is in SERIOUS Trouble

Stocks are bouncing hard this morning because China stepped in to prop up its stock market.

That’s it. That’s the only reason.

Put another way, the stock market is in very serious trouble. 

The bulls have made multiple attempts to keep the S&P 500 above its 50-day moving average (DMA). Despite all of their efforts, the S&P 500 still closed below the 50-DMA yesterday.

The longer-term picture isn’t much better. The S&P 500 has effectively traded sideways now for three months. Stocks have managed to move a lot without actually going anywhere!

Mind you, this is happening at a time when the Fed is pushing some $120 BILLION into the financial system every month. So, the market has managed to go nowhere despite the Fed putting nearly a quarter of a trillion dollars into the financial system ($120 billion for January and February each).

Now you understand why I say the markets are in serious trouble. It stocks can’t catch a bid despite this much money printing, something is VERY wrong.

That something is inflation.

Stocks love inflation at first, but that love quickly turns to hate. During the last bout of hot inflation in the 1970s, stocks initially bubbled up before CRASHING nearly 50% in the span of two years, wiping out ALL of their initial gains and then some.

As I keep warning, inflation is going to ANNIHILATE investors’ portfolios.

Those who are properly prepared. however, will make literal fortunes.

On that note, if you’re worried about weathering a potential market crash, we’ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best RegardsParagraph

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in stock collapse?
08
Mar
2021

These Are the Levels to Watch For Stocks

The bloodbath continues.

I warned for weeks that inflation was going to annihilate investors portfolios. And now it is.

The big question for most investors, is “when does it end?”

No one knows. But the market is offering us some clues.

Tesla (TSLA) was one of the hottest momentum stocks on the market going into this meltdown. It has sliced right through its 50-DMA and is now approaching its 200-DMA. Realistically, the 200-DMA is the first place we could see an actual bottom formed.

If the overall market were to follow TSLA, this would mean the S&P 500 dropping to roughly 3,500.

And the NASDAQ falling to 11,600 or so.

I know this is NOT what you wanted to hear. But the reality is that as awful as last week’s selling was, it didn’t induce any major flight to safety in bonds.

Historically, Treasuries are a safe haven, meaning that during times of trouble, capital runs to them for safety. However, last week this didn’t prove to be the case. The long-Treasury ETF (TLT) briefly spiked for a day or so, but then plunged back down to its lows.

Until you see TLT rallying hard, the odds of a market bottom remain extremely low. I wouldn’t get too excited about buying stocks until we see TLT trading near its 50-DMA at 148 or so.

Which means, buckle up, because the market is STILL in serious trouble.

Those who are properly prepared. however, will make literal fortunes.

On that note, if you’re worried about weathering a potential market crash, we’ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best RegardsParagraph

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in stock collapse?
08
Mar
2021
Warning: the Bloodbath is Far From Over

Warning: the Bloodbath is Far From Over

The bloodbath continues.

I warned for weeks that inflation was going to annihilate investors portfolios. And now it is.

The big question for most investors, is “when does it end?”

No one knows. But the market is offering us some clues.

Tesla (TSLA) was one of the hottest momentum stocks on the market going into this meltdown. It has sliced right through its 50-DMA and is now approaching its 200-DMA. Realistically, the 200-DMA is the first place we could see an actual bottom formed.

If the overall market were to follow TSLA, this would mean the S&P 500 dropping to roughly 3,500.

And the NASDAQ falling to 11,600 or so.

I know this is NOT what you wanted to hear. But the reality is that as awful as last week’s selling was, it didn’t induce any major flight to safety in bonds.

Historically, Treasuries are a safe haven, meaning that during times of trouble, capital runs to them for safety. However, last week this didn’t prove to be the case. The long-Treasury ETF (TLT) briefly spiked for a day or so, but then plunged back down to its lows.

Until you see TLT rallying hard, the odds of a market bottom remain extremely low. I wouldn’t get too excited about buying stocks until we see TLT trading near its 50-DMA at 148 or so.

Which means, buckle up, because the market is STILL in serious trouble.

Those who are properly prepared. however, will make literal fortunes.

On that note, if you’re worried about weathering a potential market crash, we’ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best RegardsParagraph

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research


Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in stock collapse?
03
Mar
2021

Warning: the Bond Market is Starting to Blow Up Again

The markets are at a crossroads.

We’ve had one major rally this week (Monday).

We’ve had one major drop this week (Tuesday).

The issue is which one was the real deal. Monday could easily have been the result of short-covering and “start of the month” buying by financial institutions.

Similarly, Tuesday could have been the markets dropping simply because China issued a warning that it believes U.S. stocks are “in a bubble.”

Honestly, it’s impossible to tell. The market is a bit of a mess. So, the best thing to do is wait and watch today as the markets will finally provide some clarity. One of the greatest trader’s adages is “when in doubt, stay out.” And that certainly rings true for the market this week.

For the S&P 500, the support is at 3,860, 3720, 3,640, and 3,550. If stocks take out this first line (3,850) on a closing basis, it opens a “trapdoor” to a nasty drop to the low 3,700s. This is a BIG reason not to be adding to longs this week.

Chart Description automatically generated

Similarly, if you are a stock market bear, you don’t want to ignore the strong uptrend stocks have established over the four months. We’ve had two “bear traps” during that time in which stocks broke down, violating the trendlines only to reverse and rally hard. I’ve identified those occasions with red circles in the chart below.

If you’re a bear, these are why you don’t want to bet on a big collapse right now: stocks could breakdown only to reverse and take you to the cleaners.

Diagram Description automatically generated

So again, the best strategy this week is to “watch and wait.” Let the market show you what is coming and then take action.

Bear in mind, we’re talking strictly about TODAY, as in right now. In the intermediate term, I remain extremely bearish.

Why?

Because inflation is blowing up the bond market. Bonds bounced a few days ago, but are once again rolling over and falling.

Put another way, the issue that blew up the stock market late last week has not been resolved. If anything, it’s about to get worse.

Which means stocks could very easily be a bloodbath in the coming weeks.

On that note, if you’re worried about weathering a potential market crash, we’ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best RegardsParagraph

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Debt Bomb