2024 Election

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

I hate politics. 

Politics are a full contact sport that brings out the ugliest aspects of human nature. And the political environment today is more toxic than at any other time in my lifetime.

Unfortunately for investors, the President and his/her agenda for the economy has a MAJOR impact on the markets. For those of us who want to make money  from our investments, we have to address recent political events.

With that in mind, it is clear that Donald Trump will be the next U.S. President.

The attempted assassination of former President has horrified and disgusted every decent person in this country. And it is guaranteed two things:

1) Joe Biden will NOT be leaving the race.

2) Donald Trump is going to win the election.

Regarding #1, following a terrible debate performance, President Biden has been struggling to maintain any kind of lead in the polls. Questions abound about the true state of the President’s cognitive/ physical health, resulting in multiple Democrat leaders and mega-donors calling on the President to step down and allow another candidate on the 2024 ticket.

This was problematic before the assassination attempt on President Trump.

For one thing, it is not clear that another candidate could legally replace Biden on the ballot in all 50 states. There’s also the issue of whether another candidate could use Biden’s campaign funds or not. And finally, there’s the fact that Biden himself doesn’t want to step down.

The attempted assassination of Donald Trump has changed all of this. NO other candidate will want to run for President in 2024. The potential upside of doing so is gone.

This presents Team Biden with a MAJOR problem.

Because of the questions concerning President Biden’s cognitive health, the President and his campaign staff had doubled down on vilifying former President Trump as its primary campaign strategy. In their minds, the only way to distract from Biden’s cognitive issues or paint him in a more positive light relative to his opponent was to the depict Trump as a “dictator” or “evil.”

Following the attempted assassination of President Trump, that strategy is now politically impossible. As I noted before, every decent American is horrified by the assassination attempt. Consequently, Biden cannot portray Trump as a monster after what happened without offending potential voters,

Put simply, following what happened on Saturday, President Biden is now a candidate with no viable campaign strategy… and questionable cognitive functioning. 

Which means…

Former President Trump is going win the 2024 Presidential election.

If you don’t believe me, consider what the betting markets are saying. From April until the June debate,  the two candidates’ betting odds were within spitting distance of each other.

Then the debate happened, and the odds of President Biden winning the election, represented by the purple line in the chart below, cratered. And following Saturday’s assassination attempt, the odds of President Trump winning, as represented by the light blue line,  have skyrocketed.

As I write this, there is now a 71% chance of Trump winning.

The stock market is forward looking, which means that starting today, the market is going to begin discounting a Trump win.

This will benefit certain sectors and stocks more than others. And those investors who are properly positioned stand to make potential fortunes.

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