2024 Election

18
Dec
2024

I Guarantee You, the Market Isn’t Ready For This

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

Today is Fed day.

The market widely believes the Fed will cut rates today and then hint at a pause in January. The reality, however, is that the Fed might very well NOT cut rates today due to political pressure.

Why would the Fed NOT cut rates?

An inflationary rebound.

As noted on these pages and elsewhere, inflation continues to be a major problem in the U.S., no matter what mainstream economists claim. None of the three official inflation measures, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producers Price Index (PPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) are declining anymore. In fact, one could easily argue that on a year over year basis, the data has been flatlining or even turning up again!

CPI serves as a great example of what I’m writing about. No one looking at this chart would claim that inflation is gone. If anything, it looks as if it’s about to make a comeback!

This is not too surprising, the only part of the CPI that is down on a year over year basis is energy prices (well that and used cars). Take those data segments out of the CPI data and prices are still rising across the board!

See for yourself.

Put simply, all we need is for energy prices to rebound higher and the official inflation data will start coming in hotter than expected.

President Trump would pin that development 100% on the Fed.

Trump has made no secret of his disdain for the Fed in the last few months. At one point, Team Trump even went so far as to float the idea of President Trump removing current Fed Chair Jerome Powell before the latter’s term ends. Other ideas include the President having a say in the Fed’s interest rate decisions, and the Treasury taking over some of the Fed’s responsibilities concerning rates and QE.

In this context, the Fed needs to avoid any rebound in inflation, which likely means fewer rate cuts happening in the near future. And this would result in stocks collapsing.

Would that collapse mark the end of this bull market… or a garden variety correction that investors should use to “buy the dip”?

To find out, join 56,000 readers in over 56 countries in receiving our daily market alert every weekday before the markets open (9:30AM EST). We’ll be covering this development in great detail shortly…

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Best Regards

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in 2024 Election, Central Bank Insanity, Inflation
15
Nov
2024

Three Things Serious Investors Should Know About This Week

The Fed claims to be politically independent, but that’s largely a myth. And no one is more aware of that than the new President of the United States, Donald Tump.

This week our host, Graham Summers, MBA, delves into the history of the Fed’s political interference, outlining clear examples in which the Fed has “tipped the scales” in favor of the establishment.

Graham also outlines some of the proposals the Trump administration has floated to address this situation, including handicapping the Fed’s autonomy with interest rate policy and more.

Put simply, a Trump 2nd Term could very well revolutionize the financial system. And this week, Graham breaks it all down into easy to understand terms as only he can.

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Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in 2024 Election, crypto
24
Jul
2024

These Are the Two Charts You NEED to See Today

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

This correction is close to over. And when it ends, stocks will rally hard to new all-time highs.

How do I know this?

Because the market internals are telling me.

Historically, high yield credit leads the stock market. The reason for this is because high yield credit (read: junk bonds) is MUCH more sensitive to macro changes due to the fact that when the economy rolls over, junk bond investors typically lose a LOT of money very quickly.

Because of this, high yield credit acts as a kind of “canary in the coal mine” for the financial system. If something BAD is coming, this is the first area to react.

High yield credit (red line in the chart below) just hit new all-time highs. Indeed, based on high yield credit, the S&P 500 should be north of 5,600 right now. This is NOT bearish for risk assets including stocks.

High yield credit isn’t the only market internal that suggests stocks are ready to rip higher.

Overall breadth has bounced hard after hitting new all-time highs. The below chart is telling us that the S&P 500 is being dragged down by big tech, but overall market breadth is getting STRONGER not weaker.

Again, this is NOT bearish. Indeed, if we go by breadth (red line in the chart below), the S&P 500 should be 100 points higher right now.

I suspect part of the reason why market internals are acting so strongly is because the market is discounting that the next President of the United States will be Donald Trump, who is obsessed with the stock market.

If you’ll recall, the former President promoted the stock market almost non-stop during his first term. Indeed, he tweeted about it an average of two times per week, mentioned it in the media dozens of times, and even pumped it higher by leaking economic developments any time it looked as if the markets would break down.

Put simply, Trump is a stock market cheerleader, and I believe the stock market is discounting a second Trump term. This will benefit certain sectors and stocks more than others. And those investors who are properly positioned stand to make potential fortunes.

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Best Regards

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in 2024 Election, Trump 2nd Term
15
Jul
2024

We’re About to Release a New Special Investment Report

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

I hate politics. 

Politics are a full contact sport that brings out the ugliest aspects of human nature. And the political environment today is more toxic than at any other time in my lifetime.

Unfortunately for investors, the President and his/her agenda for the economy has a MAJOR impact on the markets. For those of us who want to make money  from our investments, we have to address recent political events.

With that in mind, it is clear that Donald Trump will be the next U.S. President.

The attempted assassination of former President has horrified and disgusted every decent person in this country. And it is guaranteed two things:

1) Joe Biden will NOT be leaving the race.

2) Donald Trump is going to win the election.

Regarding #1, following a terrible debate performance, President Biden has been struggling to maintain any kind of lead in the polls. Questions abound about the true state of the President’s cognitive/ physical health, resulting in multiple Democrat leaders and mega-donors calling on the President to step down and allow another candidate on the 2024 ticket.

This was problematic before the assassination attempt on President Trump.

For one thing, it is not clear that another candidate could legally replace Biden on the ballot in all 50 states. There’s also the issue of whether another candidate could use Biden’s campaign funds or not. And finally, there’s the fact that Biden himself doesn’t want to step down.

The attempted assassination of Donald Trump has changed all of this. NO other candidate will want to run for President in 2024. The potential upside of doing so is gone.

This presents Team Biden with a MAJOR problem.

Because of the questions concerning President Biden’s cognitive health, the President and his campaign staff had doubled down on vilifying former President Trump as its primary campaign strategy. In their minds, the only way to distract from Biden’s cognitive issues or paint him in a more positive light relative to his opponent was to the depict Trump as a “dictator” or “evil.”

Following the attempted assassination of President Trump, that strategy is now politically impossible. As I noted before, every decent American is horrified by the assassination attempt. Consequently, Biden cannot portray Trump as a monster after what happened without offending potential voters,

Put simply, following what happened on Saturday, President Biden is now a candidate with no viable campaign strategy… and questionable cognitive functioning. 

Which means…

Former President Trump is going win the 2024 Presidential election.

If you don’t believe me, consider what the betting markets are saying. From April until the June debate,  the two candidates’ betting odds were within spitting distance of each other.

Then the debate happened, and the odds of President Biden winning the election, represented by the purple line in the chart below, cratered. And following Saturday’s assassination attempt, the odds of President Trump winning, as represented by the light blue line,  have skyrocketed.

As I write this, there is now a 71% chance of Trump winning.

The stock market is forward looking, which means that starting today, the market is going to begin discounting a Trump win.

This will benefit certain sectors and stocks more than others. And those investors who are properly positioned stand to make potential fortunes.

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Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in 2024 Election, It's a Bull Market