The Bears Failed, Again… So What’s Next For the Markets?

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By Graham Summers, MBA

Try as they might, the bears simply couldn’t get it done last week. 

The S&P 500 spent a few days chopping around its 200-day moving average (DMA) before spiking higher on Friday. Much of this late week rally was short covering, but the fact remains that sellers simply didn’t have what it took to push stocks any lower.

Indeed, the biggest news as far as stocks were concerned was the fact that the tech-heavy NASDAQ simply refused to take out support at 13,000. 

Tech is a long-duration sector of the market… meaning it is heavily influenced by long duration bonds. The reason for this is that your typical tech start-up will take years before it brings a product or service to market and starts generating cash flow. So when you’re modeling a tech company’s future cash flows, you need to be thinking five years out or more. This means comparing a tech company’s future earnings against what you’d earn from owning a risk-free U.S. Treasury over the same time period.

Simply put, the tech sector is heavily influenced by what long-duration bonds do… which is why it’s truly astonishing that the NASDAQ has refused to break down despite the fact the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury spiked to new highs. The fact that stock market bears failed to crush tech is really quite bullish and a significant “tell” for the markets.

With all of this in mind, it’s quite possible stocks bottomed last week or will bottom this one. I remain concerned about a number of risks to the markets, but we have to respect price action. And price action tells us that stocks are strong in spite of many issues. 

For more market insights and analysis, join our free daily market commentary Gains Pains & Capital. You’ll immediately start receiving our Chief Market Strategist Graham Summers, MBA’s briefings to your inbox every morning before the market’s open. Since 2015, Graham has shown investors a win rate of 75% meaning they made money on three out of every four positions closed.

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The Selling Might Be Done For Now

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By Graham Summers, MBA

Tech looks due for a bounce.

The Tech ETF (XLK) is at major support at $166. Even if this is not THE low, it’s a decent spot for a bounce as XLK rallies to $175 or so as it carves out a potential right shoulder in a Head and Shoulders pattern.

Moreover, the yield on the 10-Year U.S. Treasury is at major resistance. 

Tech is a long-duration play, meaning it is heavily affected by the yield on longer-term Treasuries. The odds of the yield on the 10-Year U.S. Treasury breaking above its current levels right here and now are not high. This suggests the next move for this yield would be down, which would alleviate some of the pressure on tech stocks.

Given that the S&P 500 is heavily weighted towards tech (the sector accounts for 28% of the index’s weight) all of the above items suggest a bounce in tech and the broader market here. Again, this is just a short-term idea.

In the big picture however, my proprietary Bull Market Trigger is about to register its first “buy” in over a decade.

This signal has only registered TWO times in the last 25 years: in 2003 and 2010. And it’s close to registering a new signal today,

If you’ve yet to take steps to prepare for invest accordingly, we have published an exclusive special report How to Time a Market Bottom.

It details the my proprietary bull market trigger, how stocks have performed following prior signals, and what it is stating right now.

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Why Stocks Are On Borrowed Time

By Graham Summers, MBA

The Fed has turned off the money pump again.

If you’re looking for a reason why stocks erupted higher starting in early March, look no further than the below chart of the Fed’s balance sheet. As you can see, during the regional banking crisis triggered by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, the Fed began expanding its balance sheet rapidly.

How rapidly?

Nearly $400 BILLION in two weeks’ time. Not since the depths of the 2020 crash has the Fed printed this much money.

Stocks bottomed soon after this… exploding higher by 6+% in a single month. 

I bring all of this up, because the Fed has turned off the money printer again. Over the last week, the Fed’s balance sheet has fallen by $100 billion.

What does this mean?

The clock is ticking for stocks. And with a recession just around the corner… it’s only a matter of time before the market breaks to new lows.

Indeed, our proprietary Crash signal has just triggered its 3rd confirmed signal in the last 25 years. The last two times it signaled?

2000 and 2008. 

If you’ve yet to take steps to prepare for what’s coming, we just published a new exclusive special report How to Invest During This Bear Market.

It details the #1 investment to own during the bear market as well as how to invest to potentially generate life changing wealth when it ends.

To pick up your FREE copy, swing by:

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PS. Our new investing podcast Bulls, Bears & BS is officially live and available on every major podcast application (Apple, Spotify, etc.)

To download or listen, swing by:

https://bullsbearsandbs.buzzsprout.com/

Please, Whatever You Do, Don’t Fall For This!

By Graham Summers, MBA

In the last two days, I’ve addressed two major piles of economic BS… the jobs data from January… and the inflation data.

By quick way of review…

1) The reason the U.S. economy supposedly “added” 500,000+ jobs in January was due to an accounting gimmick, NOT because those jobs were actually created.

2) The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) openly admits this, citing that without its “population control effect” the economy added… 84,000 jobs.

3) The only part of the inflation data that has dropped has been in Energy prices. 

4) The reason Energy prices dropped was because the Biden administration dumped over 250 MILLION barrels of oil in the last two years.

Today we’re addressing a new pile of BS… the January retail sales.

In case you missed it, January’s retail sales were fantastic, up 3% month over month.

Even more incredibly all 13 retail categories rose month over month. This is the first time this happened since the economy emerged from the depths of the pandemic shutdowns.

The economy must be roaring right!

WRONG.

The retail sales were NOT adjusted for inflation.

Inflation is somewhere between 6.4% and 9% depending on the data you track.

So the retail sales were actually NEGATIVE when you account for inflation. Or put simply, this supposed retail “growth” was all due to the prices of things rising.

Think of it this way.

Let’s say your boss gives you a 10% raise. Now let’s say that inflation is also 10%. 

Did you really get a raise?

No… your income is precisely where it was before relative to your cost of living.

THAT’s what is happening in retail. Everythings costs more… so the sales look stronger.

If you don’t believe me, consider the below chart of credit card debt. Americans are maxing out their credit cards…

While eating into their savings…

Put simply, the retail numbers were total BS. Americans are spending more just to get by because of inflation… not because the economy is booming.

And yet… investors are buying stocks based on this BS!

Oh… and by the way… our proprietary Bear Market Trigger… the one that predicted the Tech Crash as well as the Great Financial Crisis… is on a confirmed SELL signal for the first time since 2008.

If you’ve yet to take steps to prepare for what’s coming, we just published a new exclusive special report How to Invest During This Bear Market.

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Let’s Cut Through the BS About the Economy Right Here and Now!

By Graham Summers, MBA

Last week, I warned you not to trust the positive economic data being put out concerning the U.S. economy.

The reasons for my warning were simple: the data was bunk, made up, and of no real value.

By quick review, ALL of the jobs that were supposedly created in October 2022 were not real jobs; they were created in a government spreadsheet via various accounting gimmicks… not in the economy. And yes, I’m talking about all 261,000 of them.

The inflation data that everyone was so excited about last week was also NOT positive.

Month over Month inflation was 0% in July, 0.1% in August, and 0.4% in September. With that in mind, I ask… “how was a month over month reading of 0.4% in October a great thing? Technically the inflation data was BETTER during the summer!!!”

Moreover, the items that DECLINED in price… allowing the beancounters to make inflation look better than it is, were used cars and trucks, medical care, apparel, and airline fare.

By way of contrast, shelter, gas and food prices all increased.

Again… how is any of that good for the economy?

I realize it might be difficult to believe me here. After all, 99% of mainstream economists and financial media talking heads are saying the exact opposite: the economy is doing fine and inflation is coming down.

So, with that in mind, I ask you to take a look at the following data points. What do they tell you about the TRUE status of the U.S. economy?

· Juul lays off ~1/3rd of its workforce.

· Redfin lays off 13% of its staff.

· Meta to fire 13% of its workforce.

· Twitter lays off ~50% of its workforce.

· Snap lays off 20% of its employees.

· Wayfair: lays off 10% of its corporate team.

· Microsoft fires 1,000 workers.

· Disney to begin layoffs, targeted hiring freeze.

· Re/Max to fire 17% of its workforce.

· Compass to layoff 10% of its workforce.

Let’s be blunt here… corporations implement major layoffs like this during only one kind of economic environment: a recession.

And what impact do you think a recession is going to have on the stock market?

I’ll detail in tomorrow’s article. For now, the key item to note is that the Everything Bubble has burst.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining how to invest in this new bearish environment.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here.

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

This Is the Only Trigger I Know Of That Predicted the 2020 Crash… What’s It Saying Today?

By Graham Summers, MBA

Thus far this week, we’ve been noting an extremely odd development. And it’s left strategic investors feeling uneasy to say the least.

Stocks, the asset class most investors pay attention to, have erupted higher. Indeed, if you only look at stocks by themselves… everything looks great right now.

The S&P 500 has gone straight up, rising well above both its 50-day moving average (DMA) and its 200-DMA. And who would have thought we’ve be within 4% of new all time highs!

Meanwhile, beneath the surface, the bond market is flashing major warning signs.

“So what?” thinks the stock investor, “bonds are boring. They only rally 2% on a big day. Stocks are up 10% and some stocks as much as 50% in a week!”

Bonds are the bedrock of our current financial system. Their yields represent the “risk free rate” of return against which every asset class, including stocks, are valued. So if bonds are signaling trouble, the entire financial system is in trouble.

The yield curve, which is a means of measuring risk in the bond market, is now inverted. This is a MAJOR recession signal that has predicted every recession since the mid-1970s. This includes the brief, but horrific C.O.V.I.D.-19 recession of 2020. And yes, bonds somehow “knew” about that in advance.

Again, this trigger has hit before every recession going back 50 years. And it just hit again.

What are the odds it’s different this time?

Look, I get it, stocks are up… a lot. Some stocks like Tesla (TSLA) or AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) are up 50% or more in just a week! So who cares about boring old bonds?

Everyone should… especially after bonds predicted the 2020 recession and crash… something fewer than 1% of investors got right. And the fact so few investors are payng attention to bonds today is enough to make you wonder if another, equally ugly situation is about to unfold.

Bonds terrified, but stocks in la la land? This is the kind of environment in which crashes happen.

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide can show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

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The Dumb Money is Falling For Another Wall Street Trap… Don’t Be One of Them!

By Graham Summers, MBA

The Russia distraction appears to be over. The markets are enjoying a relief bounce. Enjoy it while it lasts.

The bigger issue for investors today is the fact that the markets are experiencing the first coordinated monetary tightening by central banks in years.

In the U.S., the financial system needs to digest the following:

·      The Fed is ending QE in a few weeks.

·      The Fed will begin raising rates, likely in March.

·      Multiple Fed insiders are suggesting the Fed will be raising rates five or seven times this year.

Across the Atlantic, we have:

·      The Bank of England (BoE) is already raising rates

·      The European Central Bank (ECB) will be ending QE this year.

·      The ECB is no longer committed to NOT raising rates. 

The bond markets are fully aware of these developments. But stocks are in “la la land.”

The yield on the 2-Year U.S. treasury has exploded higher, more than DOUBLING in the last six weeks alone.

In Germany, the 2-Year Government Bond has also exploded higher. Two weeks ago it moved more in a single week than it has in SIX YEARS.

This is the global financial system telling us, point blank, that we are in a “risk off” environment.

Stocks might chop around for a few more days, but we are going to NEW LOWS.

You can ignore this forecast, but in a week or so, you will wish you hadn’t.

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guidecan show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards,

Stocks Have Bounced… But is a Crash Just Around the Corner?

By Graham Summers, MBA

You’re no doubt confused by the market’s action of the last week. Are we about to see a waterfall crash… or are stocks about to explode higher to new highs?

The answer is probably neither.

Markets are tricky things. More often than not, their goal is to induce the maximum amount of suffering to the maximum number of investors.

So let’s dive in together and sort this out.

On a daily and weekly basis, the S&P 500 is now trending down. The market broke below its 200-day moving average (DMA) for the first time since the March 2020 lows. That’s a BIG deal and suggests a new bear market is here. Stocks have since reclaimed that level, but are failing to get much higher.

Moreover, on a monthly basis, the S&P 500 is clinging to the ledge of a cliff at its 10-monthly moving average (MMA) at 4,465. 

This is a BIG deal for the bulls because every time the market has broken that line in the last five years, a bear market has hit, with stocks losing 20%-30% of their value quite rapidly. 

Where does this leave us?

Overall, the tilt for the market is decidedly NEGATIVE. The trend remains down on a daily basis and the monthly chart is looking quite dangerous as well.

This means the odds favor more downside… and possibly even a crash/ bear market.

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guidecan show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Was Yesterday’s Rally the ‘Real Thing” or Was Something Sneaky Afoot?

By Graham Summers, MBA

Yesterday’s action sure seemed to come out of nowhere, didn’t it?

The market came roaring out of the gate yesterday morning and didn’t look back. Every period of weakness was bought aggressively by the bulls. And stocks finished the day up near 100 points on the S&P 500.

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What happened here? Is the danger over and it’s time to buy?

Not so fast!

The financial media likes to act as if every market move is driven by fundamentals. But sometimes the market moves 100% based on manipulation. For those who aren’t aware of this, moves like yesterday’s can be quite tricky. 

Let’s break this down together.

Fund managers must report their performance results every month. Yesterday was the last day of January. And going into that trading session, January had been a terrible month for most funds.

In simple terms, yesterday represented the last opportunity investment funds had to push stocks higher to ensure the month ended with the best possible results. So, they did what most people would do in that situation… they gamed performance by pushing stocks higher.

You can see this clearly in the Big Tech stocks (Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Facebook/ Meta).

These are the most over-owned companies on the market.  Practically every fund on the planet owns them to the point that they’re often referred to as “hedge fund hotels.” 

These companies exploded higher yesterday, dramatically outperforming the broader market. The FANG Plus Index which made up of large tech companies I just mentioned, rose over 5.8% while the S&P 500 was up just 1.89%.

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What rational thinking investor bought shares of Apple or Alphabet or Microsoft in an absolute panic yesterday? 

Again, these are the most owned companies on the planet. So where did the demand come from to force these companies to spike higher?

It was manipulation by the same funds that already owned these companies… and who were about to report awful performance numbers for the month of January. 

This is what makes markets so tricky: if you’re not aware of what’s happening “behind the scenes” it’s easy to mistake these kinds of games for a real bull run.

For those of us who know how the game is played, the most likely path for stocks going forward is this:

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For those who are worried that a new bear market is starting and that the stock market is in danger of a crash, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guidecan show you how to not only protect your portfolio, but how to profit from a market collapse.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards,

Stocks Bounce… But is Another Bloodbath Around the Corner?

The bounce hit as I had expected, but I must be honest… things got pretty hairy there for a few hours on Monday.

The issue now is where do we go from here?

Stocks are still in deep trouble.

First and foremost, the S&P 500 remains below both its 50-day moving average (DMA) and its 200-DMA. Those lines now present major resistance to any upside move. Remember, this marks the FIRST time stocks have broken below these levels since the March 2020 Crash.

Secondly, the trend, as illustrated by the 50-day moving average (DMA), is now DOWN. This again marks the first time this has been the case since the March 2020 Crash. Yes, there have been periods in which the 50-DMA was flat or sideways, but DOWN? This is the first.

So, you can see the predicament here. Regardless of the bounce the trend is DOWN and it will take considerable time and strength to reverse this. Against this backdrop the Fed is now tightening. Sure, it might not be as much tightening as everyone fears, but it’s still tightening.

The three times the Fed tried this, stocks crashed.

Those occasions were:

  • The Tech Bubble of the late ‘90s.
  • The Housing Bubble of the mid ‘00s.
  • The attempted normalization of late 2017-2018.

What are the odds the Fed succeeds this time around… especially when you consider the size of this bubble relative to the others.

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guidecan show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards,

If You’re Betting Big on an Explosive Rally You Definitely Do Not Want to Miss These Charts!

You’ve got to hand it to the manipulators, they managed to get stocks almost to their former highs in a matter of days.

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However, underneath the surface, internals are calling, “BS.”

High yield credit, which bottomed first and lead stocks higher has actually peaked and begun rolling over two days ago.

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Breadth is also no supporting this move at all. If we were going by that metric, stocks would be still be down near the 4,400 on the S&P 500.

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So, what happened here?

What happened is “someone” manipulated the markets higher, and this forced hedge funds to panic and cover their shorts. When you short a stock, you must buy it back at some point. And hedge funds have been doing this by the truck load over the last 48 hours

Did it work?

The markets are red again this morning. This is always the problem with manipulations… they only work for a time.

It is HIGHLY likely another bloodbath is coming to the markets.

The losses will be staggering.

And it’s just the beginning. It’s quite possible the markets are entering a prolonged BEAR MARKET… a time in which stocks lose 50% or more over the course of months.

The coming bust is going to be life-changing for many people. Most will lose much if not everything. But a small number of investors will generate LITERAL FORTUNES.

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guidecan show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Ignore the Manipulations… Another Bloodbath is Coming

The stock market manipulations are getting even more desperate.

On Friday I noted that the only thing holding up the stock market was abject manipulation. As I noted then, financial institutions do NOT attempt to move markets. In fact, the traders charged with executing these institutions’ trades are graded based on their ability to buy and sell large chunks of stocks without moving the tape.

Which is why we knew that no real investor was responsible for the move that occurred Thursday morning. I’m talking about the move that pushed stocks up from 4,506 to 4,566 Thursday morning in the span of a few minutes on no news.

That was Thursday. But on Friday, the manipulation became even more extreme. This time around, the manipulators desperately forced stocks higher during the final 15 minutes of trading to end the week at a better level. You can see it here:

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No real investor waits until 3:45PM to suddenly panic buy stocks. This is egregious manipulation. And it shows us that the manipulators are becoming increasingly desperate.

Why?

Breadth, which leads the broader market, is telling us the S&P 500 should be down at 4,300 (stocks are at 4,500 right now). Also note that whereas stocks bounced nicely last week, breadth was already revisiting the lows.

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In simple terms, the signs are clear: another bloodbath is coming. The markets will soon be a sea of red again. And the losses will be staggering.

And it’s just the beginning. It’s quite possible the markets are entering a prolonged BEAR MARKET… a time in which stocks lose 50% or more over the course of months.

The coming bust is going to be life-changing for many people. Most will lose much if not everything. But a small number of investors will generate LITERAL FORTUNES.

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guidecan show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards,

Guess Who’s Getting Taken to the Cleaners This Time Around?

The only thing holding the stock market up is blatant manipulation.

Financial institutions do NOT attempt to move markets. In fact, the traders charged with executing these institutions’ trades are graded based on their ability to buy and sell large chunks of stocks without moving the tape.

Which is why we know that no real investor is responsible for a move like this:

“Someone” or “someones” pushed stocks up from 4,506 to 4,566 yesterday morning in the span of a few minutes. No major news item or development hit the tape during this time. This was abject manipulation by someone trying to force stocks higher.

It makes you wonder what they’re afraid of…

Perhaps they’re afraid of the fact that stocks are in the single largest bubble in history… a bubble so frenzied with insane speculation that it makes the Tech Bubble look tame by comparison?

Perhaps this “someone” is concerned that the Fed is ending its monetary easing… the same monetary easing that has provided over $4 trillion in liquidity to the system since March 2020?

Perhaps this “someone” is also worried that the federal government is no longer able to provide $5 trillion in fiscal stimulus to prop up the system.

Or perhaps the “someone” is worried that a stock market crash would make the Biden administration look even worse when its polling is already in the toilet.

Whatever the reason, “someone” is intent on stopping the markets from imploding. Meanwhile, hedge funds, corporate insiders, and smart money are all selling the farm.

And they’re selling the farm to individual investors… who have borrowed more money to buy stocks than at any point in history.

So let’s review.

1) The Fed is ending its liquidity schemes.

2) Uncle Sam is ending his fiscal stimulus schemes.

3) Hedge Funds and corporate insiders are selling the farm.

4) Individual investors have borrowed a RECORD amount of money to buy stocks.

Guess who’s going to get taken to the cleaners on this?

Let me be blunt here, if you’re not taking steps to prepare for what’s coming, NOW is the time to do so.

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guidecan show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards,

The only thing holding the stock market up is blatant manipulation.

Financial institutions do NOT attempt to move markets. In fact, the traders charged with executing these institutions’ trades are graded based on their ability to buy and sell large chunks of stocks without moving the tape.

Which is why we know that no real investor is responsible for a move like this:

“Someone” or “someones” pushed stocks up from 4,506 to 4,566 yesterday morning in the span of a few minutes. No major news item or development hit the tape during this time. This was abject manipulation by someone trying to force stocks higher.

It makes you wonder what they’re afraid of…

Perhaps they’re afraid of the fact that stocks are in the single largest bubble in history… a bubble so frenzied with insane speculation that it makes the Tech Bubble look tame by comparison?

Perhaps this “someone” is concerned that the Fed is ending its monetary easing… the same monetary easing that has provided over $4 trillion in liquidity to the system since March 2020?

Perhaps this “someone” is also worried that the federal government is no longer able to provide $5 trillion in fiscal stimulus to prop up the system.

Or perhaps the “someone” is worried that a stock market crash would make the Biden administration look even worse when its polling is already in the toilet.

Whatever the reason, “someone” is intent on stopping the markets from imploding. Meanwhile, hedge funds, corporate insiders, and smart money are all selling the farm.

And they’re selling the farm to individual investors… who have borrowed more money to buy stocks than at any point in history.

So let’s review.

1) The Fed is ending its liquidity schemes.

2) Uncle Sam is ending his fiscal stimulus schemes.

3) Hedge Funds and corporate insiders are selling the farm.

4) Individual investors have borrowed a RECORD amount of money to buy stocks.

Guess who’s going to get taken to the cleaners on this?

Let me be blunt here, if you’re not taking steps to prepare for what’s coming, NOW is the time to do so.

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guidecan show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards,



The Fed is NOT Coming to the Rescue This Time… Are You Paying Attention?

The dip buyers got annihilated yesterday.

Stocks started the day up as traders “bought the dip” expecting that once again the Fed would intervene to prop the markets up.

They were wrong, and stocks rolled over a dropped hard into the close.

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What is going on here?

What is going on is that the Fed is no longer in the business of propping the markets up with more easing. As I noted yesterday, the Fed has completely shifted its focus from growth to inflation.

This means the Fed will be TIGHTENING, not easing going forward.

If you don’t believe me, maybe you’ll believe Fed Chair Powell who told a Senate panel yesterday: “The risk of persistently higher inflation has clearly risen, and I think our policy has adapted.”

“Policy has adapted” = we are tightening to crush inflation.

So, if you think the Fed is coming to the rescue anytime soon, you are mistaken. Stocks have NOT bottomed. If anything, this mess has just gotten started.

High yield credit (red line) has already figured this out. Stocks are only just starting to “get it.”

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For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guidecan show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards,

The Fed Just Shared a Disturbing Fact… Are You Listening?

By Graham Summers, MBA

Stocks are bouncing again because investors have been trained by the Fed to “buy the dip” since the March 2020 lows.

So, traders are buying this one.

However, there is a big difference between this recent drop in stocks and the others.

This time around, the Fed has indicated it is NOT going to start easing again. In fact, Fed Chair Jerome Powell made it clear the Fed might very well accelerate its monetary tightening.

Yesterday Fed Chair Jerome Powell told a Senate panel that he no longer believes inflation is “transitory” and that the Fed can consider wrapping up its taper “a few months sooner.”

This means the Fed has shifted gears.

For the last 20 months, the Fed has told the world that its focus was on growth in terms of jobs and employment. Throughout this period, Fed Chair Powell and his Fed colleagues stated that inflation was “transitory’ and didn’t warrant action.

This meant the Fed was willing to risk inflation while trying to create growth.

Not anymore.

The Fed is now focused on inflation, not growth. Which means it will be tightening not easing monetary conditions, most likely faster than most expect.

The credit markets have figured this out… take note where high yield credit (red line) is relative to stocks (black line) in the chart below. High yield credit leads stocks. It did so from the March lows. And now it’s doing the same to the downside.

Look, the message here is simple: the correction in stocks is NOT over. It’s NOT time to buy yet. If anything, we can expect stocks to drop to the red box sometime in the coming days.

Put another way, another bloodbath is coming. And when it hits, smart investors will cash in while everyone else gets taken to the cleaners.

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide can show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards,

Warning: Stocks Are Three Standard Deviations Away From Their Average Historic Price

Let’s set politics aside today and focus on the stock market.

From a technical analysis perspective, the market has become extremely overstretched and is due for a correction.

The S&P 500 is trading above its monthly Bollinger Bands to the upside (red circle in the chart below). This means the stock market is now three standard deviations above their average historic price.

Any time stocks have performed a similar move in the last three years, it’s been quickly followed by a sharp decline, usually to the tune of 200+ points on the S&P 500.

You can see this for yourself in the chart below. I’ve circled the last similar three occasions in which the S&P 500 was three standard deviations above its average historic price.

In simple terms, stocks are EXTREMELY overstretched and due for a breather. I’ve identified the lines of support at which I would expect stocks to be a “buy” in the coming days. Save your capital for now, and prepare to buy around those levels.

If you’re looking for this kind of precise guidance on how to invest in the markets… where the biggest opportunities are… and how to find unique picks with EXPLOSIVE potential,  I strongly urge you to join our FREE e-letter, Gains Pains & Capital.

You can pick up three special reports (a value of $99) without paying a cent, today at this link:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/evergreen3reports.html

Best

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

The Stock Market is About to Tell Us the Truth About COVID-19

President Trump has tested positive for COVID-19. And we are about to see a REAL COVID-19 test play out in the stock market.

Let me explain…

The COVID-19 pandemic has been one of the most polarizing issues in American history.

One group of Americans believes it’s one of the worst health crisis in history and that our entire society should be restructured to deal with it.

Another group of Americans believes the entire disease and shutdowns were one gigantic scam designed to cripple the economy to damage President Trump’s chances at reelection.

The stock market is about to find out which one of these is closer to the truth.

President Trump’s obsession with the stock market is almost beyond parody. Very early into his Presidency, Donald Trump branded the stock market’s returns as illustrating the success of his policies. 

This attitude extends well beyond the President himself. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin has stated that the White House views the stock market as a “report card.”

What this means is that the Trump administration views stock prices as representing their performance leading the country and the economy.

With that in mind, it’s not surprising that stocks are DOWN on the news that the President and the First Lady have tested positive for COVID-19.

Keeping in mind that President Trump is 74 and overweight which makes him at greater risk of complications/ more severe illness, stock appear to be extremely worried about the odds of his recovery. 

What comes next will tell us everything.

No other mechanism on the planet is better at discounting the future than stocks. They accurately predicted the government shutdown as well as the V-shaped recovery in the economy in 2020 alone.

So, if the market begins to rebound and rally strongly, that’s a clear signal that the market is discounting a full and rapid recovery from President Trump along with his winning a second term.

If, however, the market begins to REALLY collapse, it’s a clear signal that the market is discounting real problems for President Trump and the possibility that Joe Biden will be the next President of the United States.

On that note, if you’re worried about weathering a potential market crash, we’ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

Today is the last day this report will be available to the public.

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best RegardsParagraph

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Is the TOP In? Here Are Four Charts to Help Us Find Out

The single most important thing to do today is “watch and wait.”

Stocks got slammed yesterday. For all of the carnage, the S&P 500 held its bull market trendline. If the TOP is indeed in as many are claiming, we should take this line out shortly. Something to watch before panicking.

The NASDAQ, despite an absolute bloodbath, didn’t even get to its trendline. Again, for all the screaming that THE TOP is in and stocks are entering a bear market, we’ve not even taken out the clear and obvious bull channel of the last four months. Let’s take a deep breath and watch to see what happens before we panic and dump our holdings.

Outside of stocks, precious metals also held support.

Gold is forming a clear triangle consolidation pattern. The fact the precious metal didn’t collapse more yesterday is a very positive sign.

Silver, which is a much more volatile metal also held support. Here again we need to wait and watch. If the markets are indeed entering a “risk off” environment, silver should take out support with little difficulty.

These are four charts I’m watching today. Rather than trying to predict the future, I’m letting the market tell me what’s what. I suggest you do the same.

Graham Summers

Chief Market Stategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Gold Goes Parabolic, While Stocks Chop… What’s Next?

Stocks are up this morning as the $USD plunges.

The S&P 500 is chopping around overhead resistance (red line in the chart below). It feels like a lot is happening on the surface, but once you look at the chart it’s clear stocks have gone nowhere for the better part of six weeks.

The bigger development is occurring in precious metals. Gold has just hit a new all-time highs. Silver has nearly doubled from the March lows. This is where investors are seeing MAJOR gains right now.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE contrarian investments you can use to make precious metals pay you as inflation rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU through care investing in the precious metals sector and precious metals mining.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

There are just 17 left.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

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