Meltup

How We Called the Santa Rally Week’s Before Anyone Else

By Graham Summers, MBA

The following are excerpts from my Private Wealth Advisory market update to private clients written on 11-2-23. At that time the S&P 500 was trading in the 4,200s. It’s at 4,531 today.

The door is open to a Santa Rally to 4,600 or even higher on the S&P 500.

Why?

The Treasury just removed the single largest concern for stocks for the remainder of the year.

As I’ve noted previously, one of the most difficult aspects of stock market investing is that the market is a discounting mechanism for millions, if not billions, of pieces of information. The stock market represents the collective decisions of millions of individuals all of whom are thinking about a myriad of data points/ issues… and all of whom have literal money on the line.

However, out of all the millions or billions of pieces of information that the market is discounting at any given time, it typically only really cares about two or three issues at a time. 

Sometimes it’s inflation. Other times it’s what the President is doing (or tweeting). Other times it’s China. Other times it’s what the Fed is doing or about to do. Other times it’s the economy. And so on and so forth.

What makes things even more difficult is the fact that the market changes its focus all the time. It might be really focused on inflation for a few weeks only to then ignore inflation for months on end. Similarly, the market might go weeks without acknowledging anything Fed officials say, only to then care a great deal about a single statement made by a single Fed official during an hour-long Q&A session.

I bring all of this up, because since late-July/ early-August 2023, the #1 thing the market has cared about has been the size of the Treasury’s long-duration debt issuance…

On July 31st 2023, the Treasury announced its financing needs for the third quarter (July through September). The Treasury announced it would:

1)    Need to borrow $274 billion more than previously expected.

2)    Increase its issuance of longer duration Treasury bonds for the first time since 2021.

Regarding #2, the actual increase in dollar terms of long duration bonds that the Treasury needed to issue was relatively small ($102 billion vs. $96 billion). However, the fact that there was increase in long duration issuance, combined with the increase in total debt issuance ($274 billion) was a surprise.

And the bond markets HATE surprises.

Since that time, bond investors have been dumping ALL long duration bonds. This has resulted in long-term Treasury yields rising (bond yields rise when bond prices fall). And because the stock market is priced based on long-duration Treasury yields, this has meant a sell-off in stocks.

The chart bel shows the yield on the 10-Year U.S. Treasury and the S&P 500 from the last QRA announcement on July 31st 2023 until last week. As you can see, the two items have been moving in lockstep.

Which brings us to this week (week of 10-30-23).

On Monday the 30th of October, the Treasury issued its QRA for the fourth quarter of 2023. It surprised the markets (in a good way) by stating that it would borrow only $776 billion (this was $76 billion less than previously expected).

Then, on Wednesday (11-1-3), the Treasury released its Report to the Secretary of the Treasury from the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee.

In it, the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee wrote the following (emphasis added)

The Committee supported meaningful deviation from the historical recommendation for 15-20% T-Bill share. While most members supported a return to within the recommended band over time, the Committee noted that the work Treasury has done to meaningfully increase WAM over the past 15 years affords them increased flexibility with T-Bill share in the medium term.

Source: Treasury.gov

As I explained to clients in the remainder of this market update, the decision of the Treasury to rely extensively on short-term T-bills to finance the deficit would ignite a “risk on” rally that will likely last into year-end.

Since that time, the S&P 500 has done this:

For more market insights and analysis, join our free daily market commentary Gains Pains & Capital. You’ll immediately start receiving our Chief Market Strategist Graham Summers, MBA’s briefings to your inbox every morning before the market’s open.

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Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market, Meltup

Ignore the Noise, This is the Framework For the Markets Today

By Graham Summers, MBA

Nothing has changed in the U.S. in the last month.

The primary framework for investing in the U.S. is as follows:

1)    The stock market is bubbling up due to:

a.     There being too much liquidity in the financial system.

b.    Inflation, particularly core inflation remains elevated (4.8%).

c.     Stocks are a better inflation hedge that bonds or cash.

2)    The U.S. economy isn’t growing rapidly, but it’s not contracting either.

a.     The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now metric shows economic growth of 2.4%. 

b.    The Federal government is running its largest deficit as a percentage of GDP in history outside of wartime/ a recession. Much of this deficit is going towards social programs and stimulus measures. 

c.     Social spending and economic stimulus measures will continue if not increase as we head into the 2024 Presidential election. 

d.    The recent debt ceiling deal removes all spending caps through the 2024 election.

Put simply we are in a situation in which nothing is going great, but pretty much everything is going OK. Inflation remains high, but it has come down from its peak. The economy is still growing, albeit at a sub-3% pace. And there is ample liquidity in the financial system.

All of this is generally “risk on” for the markets… which means this situation will continue until something significant breaks. This doesn’t mean that stocks won’t correct or ever fall in price again. But it does mean that we are likely in a new bull market and that things will continue to be in “risk on” mode until something major breaks. 

Regarding the potential for a recession, the yield curve, particularly the all-important 2s10s (what you get when you subtract the yield of the 2-Year U.S. Treasury from the yield of the 10-Year U.S. Treasury) remains extremely inverted.

This has predicted every recession since 1955. However, the actual recession doesn’t hit until this dis-inverts, meaning it moves back into positive territory. And as the below chart shows, it can take months if not years for the yield curve to dis-invert once it becomes inverted.

Put simply, until this chart moves back into positive territory, this is just a warning that a recession is coming eventually. Nothing more.

So again, there are red flags in the financial system today, but these are warnings not signals that it’s time to get REALLY bearish. The purpose of investing is to make money, not miss out on gains because of a warning. So we ride this bull run for as long as we can until it ends.

Indeed, my proprietary Bull Market Trigger is about to register its first “buy” in over a decade.

This signal has only registered TWO times in the last 25 years: in 2003 and 2010. And it’s close to registering a new signal today,

If you’ve yet to take steps to prepare for invest accordingly, we have published an exclusive special report How to Time a Market Bottom.

It details the my proprietary bull market trigger, how stocks have performed following prior signals, and what it is stating right now.

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To pick up your copy, swing by:

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Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market, Meltup

What Gamestop Means for the Broader Market


Stocks have entered a kind of speculative frenzy.

You’ve no doubt heard or read about Gamestop (GME) the bricks and mortar video game retailer.

The company has been in trouble for months, failing to turn a profit since 2018. And this is happening despite revenues growing.

Because of this, hedge funds have taken MASSIVE short positions in this company, borrowing shares from their brokers to bet that GME’s stock will collapse as the company lurches towards bankruptcy. 

How big were the bets against GME’s stock? Well over 100% of the company’s shares are currently being used by shorts.

Yes, short sellers can technically borrow more shares than actually exist. And that’s where the speculative frenzy comes in.

Individual traders,(not institutional traders or hedge funds),  who are big fans of GME’s business have launched a campaign to trigger a short squeeze in GME shares.

Remember how I said the short sellers had “borrowed” GME shares? Well, this means that they need to return those borrowed shares to their brokers at some point.

The only way to do this is by buying GME’s stock.

As a result of this, GME shares have gone from $20 to over $200 in pre-market trader today. And they’ve done this in the span of two weeks.

Let’s be clear here, this move has NOTHING to do with GME’s business. This is 100% manipulation being triggered by traders taking advantage of the shorts to ignite an explosive rally.

This tells us one thing…

That for the first time in more than two decades, individual investors are coming back into stocks.

The financial media likes to talk about stocks as though everyone on the planet owns them. It’s true that roughly half of American households have exposure to the stock market, but almost all of this exposure is based on indirect purchases via 401(k)s and other stock-based retirement accounts.

Rarely, if ever, do individual Americans open brokerage accounts and start buying stocks directly.

The last time they did was at the height of the Tech Bubble – the largest stock market bubble in history. A bubble driven by loose money from the Fed and a technology revolution. A bubble that saw individual stocks rising by 25% or even 50% in a single day.

Much like what GME is doing today.

That was the kind of bubble that required individual Americans to get “stock crazy” to the point of opening individual brokerage accounts to start day trading. At the height of the Tech Bubble, a little over one in five Americans were doing this.

And we’re about to see another similar episode.

Yes, this is a bubble and yes it will burst. But for now, it remains intact. 

With that in mind, we’ve just published an investment report titled Triple Your Money With the Mother of All Bubbles.

It outlines what the Fed is doing, why it’s doing it, and a unique investment that could easily triple as the Fed unleashes a tsunami of liquidity pushing stocks to nosebleed levels.

The last time the Fed began an easing cycle, this investment rose over 1,439%. And this time around we could see similar gains.

To pick up your copy of Triple Your Money With the Mother of All Bubbles go to:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/MOAB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Meltup

S&P 500 at 4,000 By Year End? Don’t Laugh

The market continues to grind higher.

At this point, we’re about to enter the final month of the year. Most fund managers have had a TERRIBLE year. Only a handful of them accurately predicted the March meltdown and even fewer managed to buy at the lows once the market bottomed.

What does this mean?

That an entire industry of money managers has about four weeks to play “catch up” so they can post the best possible returns for 2020. Those who fail will lose clients and assets under management. 

This has the makings of a market melt-up into year-end.

The S&P 500 has broken out of its three-month consolidation period. This breakout if it holds predicts a move to 4,000 before year-end.

This sounds crazy I know, but which is crazier… 4,000 on the S&P 500, or the notion that money managers will say, “you know what, I’ve performed terribly this year… I’m going to just take it easy in December and post my awful returns to my clients.”

You get my point.

Throw in the fact that both the Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB) are both printing tremendous amounts of money with both banks’ balance sheets hitting new all-time highs and you have the makings of a MELTUP into year-end.

And then of course… there’s the market’s reaction if the 2020 Presidential election ends up going for Trump.

 KABOOM!

With that in mind, I stand by my original forecast that President Trump will end up winning this election. And our clients are already doing this with our new special report titled…

The MAGA Portfolio: Five Investments That Will Make Fortunes During Trump’s Second Term.

In it, we detail five unique investments that we expect will produce the most extraordinary gains during President Trump’s second term.

Each one of these investments is in a unique position to profit from the combination of Trump economic reforms and Fed monetary easing, combining high growth opportunities with extreme profitability.

We are offering this report exclusively to subscribers of our e-letter Gains Pains & Capital. To pick up your copy please swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/MAGA.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Related

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Meltup

How to Profit From Fund Managers’ Panic Buying Into Year-End

The market continues to grind higher.

At this point, we’re about to enter the final month of the year. Most fund managers have had a TERRIBLE year. Only a handful of them accurately predicted the March meltdown and even fewer managed to buy at the lows once the market bottomed.

What does this mean?

That an entire industry of money managers has about four weeks to play “catch up” so they can post the best possible returns for 2020. Those who fail will lose clients and assets under management. 

This has the makings of a market melt-up into year-end.

The S&P 500 has broken out of its three-month consolidation period. This breakout if it holds predicts a move to 4,000 before year-end.

This sounds crazy I know, but which is crazier… 4,000 on the S&P 500, or the notion that money managers will say, “you know what, I’ve performed terribly this year… I’m going to just take it easy in December and post my awful returns to my clients.”

You get my point.

Throw in the fact that both the Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB) are both printing tremendous amounts of money with both banks’ balance sheets hitting new all-time highs and you have the makings of a MELTUP into year-end.

And then of course… there’s the market’s reaction if the 2020 Presidential election ends up going for Trump.

 KABOOM!

With that in mind, I stand by my original forecast that President Trump will end up winning this election. And our clients are already doing this with our new special report titled…

The MAGA Portfolio: Five Investments That Will Make Fortunes During Trump’s Second Term.

In it, we detail five unique investments that we expect will produce the most extraordinary gains during President Trump’s second term.

Each one of these investments is in a unique position to profit from the combination of Trump economic reforms and Fed monetary easing, combining high growth opportunities with extreme profitability.

We are offering this report exclusively to subscribers of our e-letter Gains Pains & Capital. To pick up your copy please swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/MAGA.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Meltup

Gold Is Holding Support, Will the Next Move Be Up?

Gold continues to hold up surprisingly well despite $USD strength.

The precious metal is coining tighter and tighter into a triangle formation. When the breakout finally comes, it will be violent.

If you need signs of impressive relative strength, look at the gold mining juniors (GDXJ). During selloffs it is not uncommon to see this ETF drop 3% of even 5% in a single day.

It fell just a little over 1% on Friday.

And then there is gold’s long-term chart, where we see the precious metal consolidating at support (green line) an explosive move up. This is very similar to the consolidation period we saw in late 2019 (purple rectangle).

If we hold that green line the next leg up will take your breath away. It might not be this week or next, but when it hits, it will be massive.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

As I write this there are just 17 left.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation, Meltup

Three Charts You Need to See Today


As I keep saying, it doesn’t matter what we think… it’s what the market thinks that matters.

Personally, I think it’s insane that the Fed has nationalized the entire debt markets. Similarly, I think it was a massive mistake to shut down the economy. And I think that the human suffering created by this mess is truly horrific.

Stocks don’t seem to think any of this. Stocks think that things are going to recover relatively quickly. I think that’s insane, but again, as an investor, it doesn’t matter what I think… it’s what the market thinks that matters.

With that in mind, stocks are breaking through resistance this morning. Multiple “risk” measures I track suggest we’re moving higher.

The ratio between stocks and Treasuries has broken above its 50% retracement and held there.

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Credit spreads have held support (reds line) and are forming bull flags (red lines). This suggests an upwards breakout which would be decidedly “risk on.”

And finally, breadth continues to move higher. Moreover, every correction in breadth has held support before breaking higher (red lines). This tells us more and more stocks are joining into the rally. That is what we need to see for a new bull market to begin.

Again, I think the fact this is happening during an economic depression is insane. But as investors, it doesn’t matter what we think… it’s what the market thinks that matters.

And the market thinks more upside is coming.

They also think the Fed and other central banks are going unleash an inflationary storm. Gold is breaking out in every major currency.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation, It's a Bull Market, Meltup
Do NOT Let Politics Stop You From Taking  This Once in a Life-time Opportunity

Ignore the doom and gloom crowd, they’re trying to scare you into missing out on one of the greatest investing environments in history. 

That investing environment is based on the coming U.S. economic boom. The U.S. is the largest economy in the world by a considerable margin (it’s roughly the size of the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th, largest economies combined).

If the U.S. enters an economic boom, the rest of the world will follow. The reason so few investors understand this is because it’s been decades since the U.S. has a real economic boom.

Beyond the internet, what major innovation of the last 20 years can we point to? Social media hasn’t increased productivity in any meaningful way. Crypto currencies are just another investing fad driven by excess liquidity. Sure, computers are faster and there are electric cars, … but has anything truly revolutionary occurred?

Not yet. But it’s going to over the next five years.

The reason for this is that President Trump is going to win the 2020 election in a landslide. And without another election looming, his administration is going to cut regulations and business limiting legislation at a pace not seen since the Reagan administration.

This, combined with the Fed easing monetary conditions, is going to induce an economic miracle in the U.S. We’re going to see GDP growth of 3%, 4%, possibly even 5%.

And the markets knows it. Indeed, if the global economy is falling off a cliff, the markets didn’t get the memo.

Consider copper. The industrial metal has so many uses that it’s often called “the commodity with a PhD in economics” because it so accurately predicts economic activity.

A supposed coronavirus epidemic, the trade war, the so-called recession (it’s not), impeachment, etc. Despite all of that negative stuff, copper didn’t even break below support (red line). And it remains WELL above its 2016 low. In fact, if anything, it is forming a clear bull flag (purple lines) and is preparing for what looks to be a MAJOR bull market.

Let me ask you, if the below chart was a stock, would you be bullish or bearish?

But what about industrial commodities in general? Surely, they’re showing signs of trouble, right? There’s NO WAY they’re predicting an economic boom!

Nope. Here again we see a near decade long bear market ending (blue lines). More recently a two year downtrend has been broken (purple lines) and support (red line) has held.

Again, if this chart was a stock, would you be a buyer or a seller? Personally, I know I’d be backing up the truck.

What about lumber? All that industrial metals demand is probably just China hoarding commodities to control prices. Surely, lumber, which is more closely aligned with the U.S. economy is showing signs of trouble?

I’ve got three words for you: Raging. Bull. Market.

The two-year downtrend (purple lines) is broken. And the next leg up in a MAJOR bull market is here.

Look, I don’t care about what various gurus or talking heads are predicting… I’d rather listen to the markets.

After all, they’re what’s going to make you rich… 

And the markets are telling us… no, they’re SCREAMING that the U.S. economy is about to explode higher as President Trump wins the 2020 election in a landslide.

I want to be clear here… 

I DO NOT care about politics. You can hate President Trump or you can love him. That’s 100% up to you.

But the reality is that under the Trump administration the stock market is giving us a once in a lifetime opportunity to GET RICH from our investments.

My clients are already doing this with our new special report titled…

The MAGA Portfolio: Five Investments That Will Make Fortunes During Trump’s Second Term.

In it, I detail five HIGH OCTANE investments that are primed to EXPLODE higher when President Trump wins a second term.

In it, I detail five unique investments that I expect will produce the most extraordinary gains during President Trump’s second term.

Each one of these investments is in a unique position to profit from the combination of Trump economic reforms and Fed monetary easing, combining high growth opportunities with extreme profitability.

We are offering this report exclusively to subscribers of our e-letter Gains Pains & Capital. To pick up your copy please swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/MAGA.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market, Meltup

Markets were closed yesterday in honor of President’s day, so today (Tuesday) is the first day of market action for the week.

Stocks are slightly down as I write this, (less than 0.5). The S&P 500 remains in a clear bull market channel. But there are signs we could see a pull-back (think 3% or so).

Stocks follow credit. And credit has just hit the level at which I would expect to see a pullback of sorts.

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An annual subscription to all of our current newsletters costs $1,500.

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That’s less that the cost of two year’s worth of subscriptions.

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The same is true of breadth. If we were going to see a pullback, there is where I’d expect it to hit.

Put simply, if we are going to get a pullback, it should start this week. But based on the market’s internals and price action, this pullback should be shallow (think 3% or so) and used as a buying opportunity.

Why?

Stocks are a discounting mechanism. And they are the most accurate forecaster of future events in history. So, this raises the question… what is the stock market discounting with the recent global breakout?

I believe the market is discounting a landslide victory for President Trump in 2020, followed by an economic boom in the U.S.

The fact is that for 20 odd years, the U.S. has been relatively weak from an economic perspective. Most of the economic growth was driven by asset bubbles, not a growth in incomes or innovation.

Beyond the internet, what major innovation of the last 20 years can we point to? Social media hasn’t increased productivity in any meaningful way. Crypto-currencies are just another investing fad driven by excess liquidity. Sure, computers are faster… but has anything truly revolutionary occurred?

The answer is no.

I believe this will change in the coming months and years. The combination of the Trump administration’s regulation cutting, and the Fed’s monetary easing, is going to provide risk-takers, entrepreneurs, and innovators with a unique environment in which new, revolutionary ideas can truly ignite.

This is what U.S. stocks began to discount when they broke of two-year consolidation range in mid-2019. At that it was evident that the impeachment farce would go nowhere and that the Fed finally began to ease again. 

This is going to ignite a global melt-up. The U.S. is the largest economy in the world with a GPD equal to that of the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th largest economies combined.

Which is why U.S. stocks were the first to ignite to the upside. The Global Dow has only just joined in, breaking out of its own two-year consolidation range.

Yes, for the last two years global stocks have gone nowhere. They have only just begun to catch wind of what U.S. stocks figured out six months ago.

I want to be clear here… 

I DO NOT care about politics. You can hate President Trump or you can love him. That’s 100% up to you.

But the reality is that under the Trump administration the stock market is giving us a once in a lifetime opportunity to GET RICH from our investments.

My clients are already doing this with our new special report titled…

The MAGA Portfolio: Five Investments That Will Make Fortunes During Trump’s Second Term.

In it, I detail five HIGH OCTANE investments that are primed to EXPLODE higher when President Trump wins a second term.

In it, I detail five unique investments that I expect will produce the most extraordinary gains during President Trump’s second term.

Each one of these investments is in a unique position to profit from the combination of Trump economic reforms and Fed monetary easing, combining high growth opportunities with extreme profitability.

We are offering this report exclusively to subscribers of our e-letter Gains Pains & Capital. To pick up your copy please swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/MAGA.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market, Meltup

Markets were closed yesterday in honor of President’s day, so today (Tuesday) is the first day of market action for the week.

Stocks are slightly down as I write this, (less than 0.5). The S&P 500 remains in a clear bull market channel. But there are signs we could see a pull-back (think 3% or so).

Stocks follow credit. And credit has just hit the level at which I would expect to see a pullback of sorts.

—————————————————–

Get a LIFETIME Subscription to All Of Our Products For Just $2,500 

An annual subscription to all of our current newsletters costs $1,500.

But today, you can get a LIFETIME subscription to ALL of them, along with every new product we ever launch, for just $2,500.

That’s less that the cost of two year’s worth of subscriptions.

And if you are already a paying subscriber to one or more of our newsletters, we will refund your current orders, if you take advantage of this offer.

To do so…

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——————————————-

The same is true of breadth. If we were going to see a pullback, there is where I’d expect it to hit.

Put simply, if we are going to get a pullback, it should start this week. But based on the market’s internals and price action, this pullback should be shallow (think 3% or so) and used as a buying opportunity.

Why?

Stocks are a discounting mechanism. And they are the most accurate forecaster of future events in history. So, this raises the question… what is the stock market discounting with the recent global breakout?

I believe the market is discounting a landslide victory for President Trump in 2020, followed by an economic boom in the U.S.

The fact is that for 20 odd years, the U.S. has been relatively weak from an economic perspective. Most of the economic growth was driven by asset bubbles, not a growth in incomes or innovation.

Beyond the internet, what major innovation of the last 20 years can we point to? Social media hasn’t increased productivity in any meaningful way. Crypto-currencies are just another investing fad driven by excess liquidity. Sure, computers are faster… but has anything truly revolutionary occurred?

The answer is no.

I believe this will change in the coming months and years. The combination of the Trump administration’s regulation cutting, and the Fed’s monetary easing, is going to provide risk-takers, entrepreneurs, and innovators with a unique environment in which new, revolutionary ideas can truly ignite.

This is what U.S. stocks began to discount when they broke of two-year consolidation range in mid-2019. At that it was evident that the impeachment farce would go nowhere and that the Fed finally began to ease again. 

This is going to ignite a global melt-up. The U.S. is the largest economy in the world with a GPD equal to that of the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th largest economies combined.

Which is why U.S. stocks were the first to ignite to the upside. The Global Dow has only just joined in, breaking out of its own two-year consolidation range.

Yes, for the last two years global stocks have gone nowhere. They have only just begun to catch wind of what U.S. stocks figured out six months ago.

I want to be clear here… 

I DO NOT care about politics. You can hate President Trump or you can love him. That’s 100% up to you.

But the reality is that under the Trump administration the stock market is giving us a once in a lifetime opportunity to GET RICH from our investments.

My clients are already doing this with our new special report titled…

The MAGA Portfolio: Five Investments That Will Make Fortunes During Trump’s Second Term.

In it, I detail five HIGH OCTANE investments that are primed to EXPLODE higher when President Trump wins a second term.

In it, I detail five unique investments that I expect will produce the most extraordinary gains during President Trump’s second term.

Each one of these investments is in a unique position to profit from the combination of Trump economic reforms and Fed monetary easing, combining high growth opportunities with extreme profitability.

We are offering this report exclusively to subscribers of our e-letter Gains Pains & Capital. To pick up your copy please swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/MAGA.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market, Meltup

The markets are closed today in the U.S. in honor of President’s day.

While the mainstream media continues fearmongering, assuring us that coronavirus or some other issue will soon crash the stock market, stocks are signaling something else completely.

As I write this on Monday morning, the futures market has soared to new all-time highs. This marks the 11th new all-time high in 2020 alone. The fact that stocks continue to make new highs despite negative developments is incredibly bullish.

Remember, stocks are a discounting mechanism. And they are the most accurate forecaster of future events in history. So, this raises the question… what is the stock market discounting?

I believe the market is discounting a landslide victory for President Trump in 2020, followed by an economic boom in the U.S.

The fact is that for 20 odd years, the U.S. has been relatively weak from an economic perspective. Most of the economic growth was driven by asset bubbles, not a growth in incomes or innovation.

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Beyond the internet, what major innovation of the last 20 years can we point to? Social media hasn’t increased productivity in any meaningful way. Crypto-currencies are just another investing fad driven by excess liquidity. Sure, computers are faster… but has anything truly revolutionary occurred?

The answer is no.

I believe this will change in the coming months and years. The combination of the Trump administration’s regulation cutting, and the Fed’s monetary easing, is going to provide risk-takers, entrepreneurs, and innovators with a unique environment in which new, revolutionary ideas can truly ignite.

This is what U.S. stocks began to discount when they broke of two-year consolidation range in mid-2019. At that it was evident that the impeachment farce would go nowhere and that the Fed finally began to ease again. 

This is going to ignite a global melt-up. The U.S. is the largest economy in the world with a GPD equal to that of the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th largest economies combined.

Which is why U.S. stocks were the first to ignite to the upside. The Global Dow has only just joined in, breaking out of its own two-year consolidation range.

Yes, for the last two years global stocks have gone nowhere. They have only just begun to catch wind of what U.S. stocks figured out six months ago.

I want to be clear here… 

I DO NOT care about politics. You can hate President Trump or you can love him. That’s 100% up to you.

But the reality is that under the Trump administration the stock market is giving us a once in a lifetime opportunity to GET RICH from our investments.

My clients are already doing this with our new special report titled…

The MAGA Portfolio: Five Investments That Will Make Fortunes During Trump’s Second Term.

In it, I detail five HIGH OCTANE investments that are primed to EXPLODE higher when President Trump wins a second term.

In it, I detail five unique investments that I expect will produce the most extraordinary gains during President Trump’s second term.

Each one of these investments is in a unique position to profit from the combination of Trump economic reforms and Fed monetary easing, combining high growth opportunities with extreme profitability.

We are offering this report exclusively to subscribers of our e-letter Gains Pains & Capital. To pick up your copy please swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/MAGA.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market, Meltup

Ignore the naysayers, the Trump administration has successful engineered an economic boom.

I was recently on Cheddar discussing the markets when the anchor raised the fact that the Trump administration failed to achieve its economic goals.

This is false.

First and foremost, the economic data put out in the U.S. has become EXTREMELY politically biased.

The reason for this is simple, many of the people who compile this information are Democrats who hate the President (the bulk of Government employees live and work in Northern Virginia/ D.C. which went 92% for Hillary Clinton in 2016).

Throughout the Obama years, time and again economic data was massaged to make the so-called “recovery” look better than it was.

The reality is that most of the 2008-2016 period would have qualified as a recession based on objective analysis. Case in point, over 90% of all jobs created by the Obama administration were part-time jobs.

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In contrast, we are now seeing the exact opposite occurring with Trump administration: the economic data is being massaged and gimmicked to make the economy look worse.

Real GDP growth is above 3%, and real income growth/ job growth/ etc. are all booming.

If you do not believe me, take a look at the stock market, which is the single greatest discounting mechanism on the planet.

People have political agendas/ biases. The stock market simply discounts reality.

With that in mind, what does the below chart tell you about the state of the U.S. economy? More importantly, what is the stock market is telling us about what’s coming down the pike for the U.S.? 

I believe the market is “showing” us that President Trump is going to win the 2020 election in a landslide. 

The Trump administration has successfully “branded” the stock market. As such, stocks are closely aligned with the President’s odds of re-election in 2020.

Which is why, this recent breakout to new highs is telling us Trump wins 2020 in a landslide… and that this time there will be few obstacles to his economic agenda.

I want to be clear here… 

I DO NOT care about politics. You can hate President Trump or you can love him. That’s 100% up to you.

But the reality is that under the Trump administration the stock market is giving us a once in a lifetime opportunity to GET RICH from our investments.

My clients are already doing this with our new special report titled…

The MAGA Portfolio: Five Investments That Will Make Fortunes During Trump’s Second Term.

In it, I detail five HIGH OCTANE investments that are primed to EXPLODE higher when President Trump wins a second term.

In it, I detail five unique investments that I expect will produce the most extraordinary gains during President Trump’s second term.

Each one of these investments is in a unique position to profit from the combination of Trump economic reforms and Fed monetary easing, combining high growth opportunities with extreme profitability.

We are offering this report exclusively to subscribers of our e-letter Gains Pains & Capital. To pick up your copy please swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/MAGA.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market, Meltup

It’s time to talk about Trump’s second term.

The impeachment farce is over, the Fed is now under President Trump’s control, and the U.S. economy continues to strengthen.

It is now clear the stock market has begun discounting that President Trump is going to win the 2020 election in a landslide.

Stocks have broken out to new all-time highs. In the process of doing this, they’ve regained their bull market channel.

What’s interesting to note is that economically-linked sectors like copper have broken their downtrends. This suggests the U.S. will experience greater economic strength. It also suggests that the Trump admin will be unveiling some kind of infrastructure plan in the coming months.

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Housing is also looking incredibly strong, suggesting that the real estate market will continue to roar higher. Americans will be getting a lot richer from their homes.

Put simply, across the board the market is “showing” us that President Trump is going to win the 2020 election in a landslide. 

Now is the time to start investing in those areas of the market that will experience the biggest returns based on the Trump administration’s economic agenda during his second term.

On that note, I recently posted a new special report titled The MAGA Portfolio: Five Investments That Will Make Fortunes During Trump’s Second Term.

In it, I detail five unique investments that I expect will produce the most extraordinary gains during President Trump’s second term.

Each one of these investments is in a unique position to profit from the combination of Trump economic reforms and Fed monetary easing, combining high growth opportunities with extreme profitability.

We are offering this report exclusively to subscribers of our e-letter Gains Pains & Capital. To pick up your copy please swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/MAGA.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market, Meltup

Tesla (TSLA) is going to ignite a new stock market mania.

In case you’ve missed it, TSLA has soared to nearly $900 per share. It was trading at $200 per share back in June 2019. So we’re talking about a 400%+ gain in the span of roughly seven months.

The professional investor crowd sees this and laughs saying “this is insane, and it shows the market is about to top.”

I see it, and it tells me, we are about to enter a TRUE stock market mania.

Put another way, TSLA is signaling that after more than two decades, individual investors are coming back into stocks.

The financial media likes to talk about stocks as though everyone on the planet owns them. It’s true that roughly half of American households have exposure to the stock market, but almost all of this exposure is based on indirect purchases via 401(k)s and other stock-based retirement accounts.

Rarely, if ever, do individual Americans open brokerage accounts and start buy stocks directly.

The last time they did, was at the height of the Tech Bubble, the largest stock market bubble in history. A bubble driven by loose money from the Fed and a technology revolution. A bubble that saw individual stocks rising by 25% or even 50% in a single day.

Much like what TSLA is doing today.

That was the kind of bubble that required individual Americans to get “stock crazy” to the point of opening individual brokerage accounts to start day trading. At the height of the Tech Bubble a little over a little over one in five Americans were doing this.

We all remember what followed, the Tech Bubble burst and stocks went roughly NOWHERE for the better part of 20 years.

A close up of a map

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TSLA is changing all of this. Its explosive market gains and popularity are great enough that it has caught the attention of the general population in ways no stock has done in decades.

People are getting TSLA tattoos. People with absolutely ZERO experience in investing are talking about it. And they are starting to open brokerage accounts.

Consider the following…

  • Brokerage startup Robinhood just announced that it now has 10 million customers.
  • Larger, more established brokerage accounts like Fidelity and Charles Schwab are cutting commissions to ZERO, meaning you pay NOTHING to trade stocks
  • Financial literacy websites like Nerdwallet have begun posting articles with headlines like: What Is a Brokerage Account and How Do I Open One?

This is just the beginning. We are about to enter a stock market mania not seen since the Tech Bubble. And before it ends, I expect we’re going to see a mania unlike anything else.

I’m talking about 50,000 on the Dow Jones industrial Average and 5,000 on the S&P 500.

If you think this sounds crazy, consider that during the Tech Bubble stocks rose over 840% before the bubble burst.

Now consider that if the newest bull market only just began in 2013 (and it did, prior to that stocks had gone nowhere for 20 years), then technically stocks are only up about 110% since the bull market began!

A screenshot of a cell phone

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Look, I realize this all sounds completely insane. The media claims stocks have been in a bull market since 2009, that we are currently in the longest bull market in history.

But this is false and fear mongering. Stocks are nowhere near the manic levels required for a major market top. The AAI sentiment survey has never even cleared 40% bulls.

During major market manias this sentiment gauge routinely hits 70% bulls or even 80% bulls.

But it will be in the coming months and years as the S&P 500 clears first 4,000 and then makes its ways to 5,000.

And TSLA is the match that has lit the fuse.

This will be the last truly great market mania, the last bull market, of our lifetimes. When it ends, the ensuing bear market will be 10+ years long.

On that note, today is the last day our Special Report The Last Bull Market will be available to the public.

In it we outline how the bull market will unfold… which investments will perform best… and a unique play on stocks… a single investment… that has already returned 1,300%. And we believe it’s poised to more than TRIPLE in the next 24 months as the stock market roars higher.

We extended our deadline for this report based on the market hitting new all time highs this week, but this is IT. No more extensions.

To pick up one of the last copies…swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TLBM.html

Best Regards,

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market, Meltup

Forget everything you hear on the news.

Forget the claims of recession. Forget the claims of Trade Wars. Forget all of that stuff. The market only cares about ONE THING.

The Fed is pumping its BRAINS OUT.

The Fed is now expanding its balance sheet at a pace of $100 billion per month.

Yes, $100 billion, despite the fact its official QE program is only $60 billion.

On an annualized basis this means the Fed is now funneling over $1 trillion into the financial system every year.

And it’s igniting the last great bull market of our lifetimes.

All around the world, stock markets are breaking out to the upside.

Brazil has broken through resistance (red line) and erupted to new multi-year highs.

Russia has EXPLODED higher to new multi-year highs.

Even Mexico, which has been left for dead by investors for years, has broken its downtrend and broken out to new 52-week highs.

Look, there’s no reason to overthink this. Central Banks are panicked and have started the printing presses again.

And it’s going to lead to the last great bull market of our lifetimes.

On that note, today is the last day our Special Report The Last Bull Market will be available to the public.

In it we outline how the bull market will unfold… which investments will perform best… and a unique play on stocks… a single investment… that has already returned 1,300%. And we believe it’s poised to more than TRIPLE in the next 24 months as the stock market roars higher.

We extended our deadline for this report based on the market hitting new all time highs last week, but this is IT. No more extensions.

To pick up one of the last copies…swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TLBM.html

Best Regards,

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Central Bank Insanity, It's a Bull Market, Meltup

Anyone who bases their investment decisions on economic data last year have lost fortunes.

I am speaking from experience here… I was almost one of them!

Throughout the first half of 2019, the data pointed to a recession hitting the U.S.. Time and again, the gurus appeared telling us, “a recession is just around the corner.”

Fast forward to today and no recession appeared. In fact the economy is booming. And the stock market has hit new high after new highs. Anyone who invested as though a recession was coming is now broke.

How did this happen?

The reason for this is not that these people are not intelligent or capable… it’s that the economic data in the U.S. no longer resembles reality.

If the data is garbage, your forecast will be garbage, no matter who clever you are, or how sophisticated your model.

Consider that most of these “hard data” economic pieces are based on surveys.

Who on earth wants to take time from their already busy day to answer a survey?

Once the survey is completed, it’s then analyzed/ manipulated by economists. We have already covered how little their work reflects reality.

Also, it’s worth mentioning that these people have political biases like everyone else. And those biases have become all too clear when comparing the outcomes under the Trump administration vs. those published under the Obama administration.

And then finally, there are “adjustments” made to the actual results. News flash… if your results require adjustments, they don’t actually reflect reality.

So to recap… the “hard data” is:

1)    Based on filling out a survey.

2)    Manipulated by economists.

3)    Adjusted even after the manipulation is complete.

And people are supposed to invest their hard-earned cash based on this?

You’re much better off looking at the markets. That’s what saved me and my subscribers from falling for the “recession hype” in mid-2019.

Take a look at Steel.

Steel is highly sensitive to the economy. And steel bottomed in late August and began shooting higher soon after. By October it was in an uptrend. And in November, it broke out of a 12+ month downtrend.

Put simply, steel broadcast as early as September that an economic rebound was underway. And by October it was clear it would be significant.

Subscribers of my Private Wealth Advisory newsletter used this information to invest heavily in Steel and other economically sensitive industries back in October. 

Since that time we’ve seen gains of 10%, 11% and 19%. And our current open positions are chock full of winners ranging, with 19 of our 25 positions making us money.

And we’re just getting started!

I’m talking about winners of 13%, 15%, 16% and 26%.

To find out what these investments are, all you need to do is take out a 30-day trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory for just $9.99.

During those 30 days you’ll receive:

1)   A copy of my bestselling book, The Everything Bubble: The Endgame For Central Bank Policy.

2)   Four issues of Private Wealth Advisory  featuring my big picture analysis of the global economy and markets as well as…

3)   At least THREE trade ideas (by the way, we are running a 72%WIN rate on closed positions since 2015, meaning we’ve made money on more than SEVEN out of every 10 positions we’ve closed).

4) Our model portfolio, featuring the names, symbols and returns of our latest winners, which are all current BUYS!

All of this for just$9.99.

If you want in on this you better move fast, because we are closing the doors on this offer tomorrow at midnight. 

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Best Regards   

Graham Summers   
Chief Market Strategist   
Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market, Meltup

Stocks were sold on Friday, falling to test the first line of support we outlined last week (top red line). That line held and the S&P 500 remains within a bullish rising channel we have been following since mid-October 2019. If we break here, we have more support at 3,150 (lower red line).

Regardless of what stocks do here, the big story is that 2020 is an election year.

The Trump administration has made it no secret that it cares deeply about the stock market. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin has even admitted on record that the Trump White House sees the stock market as a “report card.”

With that in mind, what are the odds the President is going to let the market fall during an election year?

We now know why President Trump was haranguing the fed non-stop last year: to get the Fed to start easing to insure his re-election.

Whether or not you agree with this doesn’t matter… the Fed has reacted by cutting rates three times and launching a $60 billion per month QE program.

Throw in the multiple repo programs the Fed is running and we’re talking about $100 billion in liquidity hitting the financial system every single month. That’s $1.2 trillion in liquidity per year.

This is going to send the S&P 500 to 4,000 before year-end.

Why is the President so intent on this?

Because Americans vote with their wallets. And no President has failed to secure a second term when the economy is strong and the stock market is roaring higher.

If you’re not preparing to profit from this, NOW is the time to do so!

Indeed, we’ve discovered a unique play on stocks… a single investment… that has already returned 1,300%. And we believe it’s poised to more than TRIPLE in the next 24 months as the stock market roars higher.

To find out what it is… pick up a copy of our report…The Last Bull Market of Our Lifetimes

Today is the last day this report is available to the public

Click Here Now

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market, Meltup

Happy New Year’s Eve!

As we wind down 2019, stocks are making a small pullback. Barring a complete meltdown today, stocks are about to finish 2019 with gains of over 28%.

That’s an incredible return for a single year. And 2020 is looking to be just as bullish.

Forget earnings, forget the economy, forget the trade deal, forget all of the stuff the media tells you to focus on. The markets carte about one thing and on thing only: LIQUIDITY.

And there is a TSUNAMI of it coming in 2020.

Consider the following:

1)    Money supply is growing at 7.4% per year.

2)    The Fed is putting roughly $100 billion into the financial system every month.

3)    Corporations will buyback nearly $600 billion worth of their own stock next year.

4)    Investors are sitting on $3.4 trillion in cash.

Between the Fed and corporate buybacks alone, there will be $1.8 TRILLION in liquidity hitting the financial system next year. That’s an amount roughly equal to the GDP of Italy.

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Now consider what happens if stocks and the economy continue to fare well and investors choose to move some of the $3.4 trillion in cash back into the markets.

We’re talking about the S&P 500 hitting 4,000 by year-end 2020.

If you think this sounds extreme, consider that stocks just broke out of a multi-year consolidation pattern similar to that of 2014-2017 in late last year. During the last breakout, the market roared higher by 700 points… and that was without the Fed easing monetary policy.

A similar move this time around would put the S&P 500 at 3,600. Throw in the Fed’s extreme monetary easing and 4,000 on the S&P 500 isn’t hard to reach.

If you’re not preparing to profit from this, NOW is the time to do so!

Indeed, we’ve discovered a unique play on stocks… a single investment… that has already returned 1,300%. And we believe it’s poised to more than TRIPLE in the next 24 months as the stock market roars higher.

To find out what it is… pick up a copy of our report…The Last Bull Market of Our Lifetimes

There are fewer than 19 copies left.

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Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Meltup

The market is telling us that the impeachment process will go nowhere.

Very early into his Presidency, Donald Trump branded the stock market’s returns as illustrating the success of his policies. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin even went so far as to state that the White House views the stock market as a “report card.”

This has proven correct. Throughout the Mueller investigation, whenever a story surfaced suggesting that President Trump was in trouble, the stock market would nose-dive at least for a day or two.

This trend continued during the initial phases of the Democrats’ impeachment process with stocks falling soon after the announcement of an impeachment investigation on 7/26/19 as well as the announcement of a formal impeachment inquiry on 9/24/19.

GPC1219192.png

Note however, that with each sell-off, the market put in a higher low. Also note that since early October, the market has been going straight up almost straight up to new highs on a weekly basis.

Indeed, yesterday stocks hit a new all-time high on the very day the Democrats voted on impeachment!

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The market is discounting that the impeachment process will go nowhere. If anything, it’s guaranteeing that Joe Biden will be the Democrats’ nominee… which guarantees a landslide victory for President Trump in 2020.

Let me explain…

The impeachment process will now move to a Senate trial that will require all Senators to attend. This means both Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren will have to be in D.C. and not on the campaign trail.

That leaves Joe Biden as a front-runner for the Democrat nominee. And Mr. Biden’s odds of success are so low that even President Barack Obama, the man who chose Joe Biden as his Vice President and who worked with Mr. Biden for eight years, has failed to publicly endorse him.

So again, the market is telling us that this impeachment process poses no threat to President Trump. If anything, the market is now beginning to discount a second term for the Trump Presidency.

Those who seek profit from this, need to invest in the sectors that will most benefit from a second Trump term.

Indeed, we’ve discovered a unique play on stocks… a single investment… that has already returned 1,300%. And we believe it’s poised to more than TRIPLE in the next 24 months as President Trump secures a second term in a landslide win.

To find out what it is… pick up a copy of our report…The Last Bull Market of Our Lifetimes

There are fewer than 50 copies left.

Click Here Now

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Meltup, The Markets, Trading Opportunity

Yesterday, I noted that the beaten down steel industry was beginning to turn up.

Steel is an industrial metal used closely aligned with economic growth. With that in mind, the below chart suggests that the downturn from early 2018 until mid-2019 is ending and that we are entering a period of boom, not bust.

GPC1217192.png

This is the first of MANY such charts. 

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The doom and gloomers tell us that the U.S. is on the verge of a recession, but the market disagrees. Everywhere I look I see breakouts and new highs. 

Steel is just one such example. Take a look at Copper.

GPC1218192.png

Here again we have a breakout signaling that the downturn from early 2018 until mid-2019 is ending. This again suggests a boom, not a bust, is coming down the pike.

This is EXTREMELY bullish. And I believe that 30% gain since September is just the start. My proprietary models indicate that all claims of an impending recession are completely WRONG.

Instead we’re about to enter an economic boom… one in which undervalued plays like steel could more than DOUBLE in the coming months.

Indeed, we’ve discovered a unique play on stocks… a single investment… that has already returned 1,300%. And we believe it’s poised to more than TRIPLE in the next 24 months.

To find out what it is… pick up a copy of our report…The Last Bull Market of Our Lifetimes

There are fewer than 50 copies left.

Click Here Now

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Meltup