Warning: the Debt “Deal” Opens the Door to Unlimited Spending

Posted on May 31, 2023 by Phoenix Capital Research

It’s worse than I imagined.

I had initially thought that the current debt ceiling deal would feature a small amount of spending cuts in 2024. In reality, it will feature NO CUTS and will in fact open the door to as much spending as the Biden Whitehouse desires.

How is this possible?

A single line in the fine print from Section 265: The OMB director has sole waiver authority to spend if it’s “necessary for program delivery.” (H/T. Rep Nance Mace for catching this).

What does this mean?

OMB stands for Office of Management and Budget. This is the part of the Executive Branch in charge of “overseeing the implementation” of the President’s “vision” for the economy.

The OMB director is appointed by the President. And according to the current version of the debt dealing congress is voting on, this person has “sole waiver” authority on spending caps.

Put simply, she (the current OMB director is Shalanda Young), is permitted to spend as much money as President Biden wants, provided the spending is deemed “necessary” to deliver on programs that meet his vision for the economy.

So much for spending caps! This is the equivalent of handing a credit card to your 10-year-old child and saying, “you can only spend $100… unless it’s for something you think you need.”

We both know how that would turn out.

The reality is that this debt deal opens the door to a LOT more spending by the government, a mere 17-18 months before the next Presidential election. I’m sure the government will become fiscally conservative between now and then. After all, they’ve only grown the debt by $8 trillion since early 2020.

More and more the U.S. is beginning to look like an emerging market economy. Rampant spending, rampant corruption, and rampant inflation. Gold’s figured out what’s coming which is why it’s hanging around $2000 per ounce despite the Fed raising rates aggressively in the last 12 months.

Some investments will make fortunes from all this government spending/ inflation, others will absolutely implode.

On that note, we published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.Paragraph

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We made just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm2.html

Best Regards,

The Fed is Back to Printing Money… With Inflation at 6%

Posted on March 17, 2023 by Phoenix Capital Research

By Graham Summers, MBA

The Fed just gave out over $300 BILLION in single week.

See for yourself: the Fed’s balance sheet has erupted higher, erasing over HALF of its Quantitative Tightening (QT) efforts. Again, we are talking about $300+ BILLION in a single week.

Now, technically much of this ($164 billion to be exact) came in the form of loans to banks. The banks will have to pay this back, so it’s not quite the same as Quantitative Easing (QE). Regardless, the key point is that the Fed is NO LONGER shrinking its balance sheet… instead it is printing money. And not a little bit, but $300+ billion in a single week.

To put that into perspective, it’s the equivalent of more than TWO MONTHS’ worth the Fed’s emergency QE program that it ran in response to the pandemic. And again, the Fed did this in just FIVE DAYS.

What does this mean?

First and foremost, that something VERY BAD is going on behind the scenes in the U.S. banking system. But more importantly for us as investors, that the next round of bailouts/ easing/ reflating the financial system is here.

This won’t end well.

The Silicon Valley Bank bailout is the Bear Stearns moment for this bubble. Lehman is coming… as is AIG… and this entire mess won’t end until the stock market hits levels most cannot even imagine today… to the downside

Indeed, from a BIG PICTURE perspective my proprietary Crash Trigger is now on the first confirmed “Sell” signal since 2008.

This signal has only registered THREE times in the last 25 years: in 2000, 2008 and today.

If you’ve yet to take steps to prepare for what’s coming, we just published a new exclusive special report How to Invest During This Bear Market.

It details the #1 investment to own during the bear market as well as how to invest to potentially generate life changing wealth when it ends.

To pick up your FREE copy, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/BM.html

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Investors Are About to Pay the Price for the Fed’s Failures…

Posted on February 17, 2023 by Phoenix Capital Research

By Graham Summers, MBA

Throughout this week, I’ve pounded the table on the fact that the economic data the U.S. government has put out recently is a huge pile of BS.

We’ve covered everything from the jobs data, to inflation, and the recent retail sales results. By quick way of review, the highlights from my research are:

1) The reason the U.S. economy supposedly “added” 500,000+ jobs in January was due to an accounting gimmick, NOT because those jobs were actually created.

2) The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) openly admits this, citing that without its “population control effect” the economy added… 84,000 jobs.

3) The only part of the inflation data that has dropped has been in Energy prices.

4) The reason Energy prices dropped was because the Biden administration dumped over 250 MILLION barrels of oil in the last two years.

5) Retail sales are booming because of INFLATION (things cost more), not because of consumer spending. The jump on credit card debt and massive decline in consumer savings confirms that Americans are maxing out their credit just to get by.

Perhaps the single most disturbing element of the above items is that they reveal the complete failure of the Federal Reserve to tame inflation. Indeed, according to the Taylor Rule which is widely considered one of the best indicators of where rates should be the Fed should have ALREADY raised rates to over 9% to stop inflation.

Instead the Fed has raised rates to 4.75% and is now talking about possibly one or two more rate hikes of just 0.25%.

Everywhere you look, the Fed is failing miserably at curtailing inflation.

1) Financial conditions are now as loose it not looser then they were before the Fed began tightening monetary policy.

2) Meme stock mania is back with garbage companies rallying 30%, 50% even 100% or more in the last few weeks… again just like before the Fed began tightening monetary policy.

3) The inflationary data is being revised upwards: December’s -0.1% CPI report has been revised upwards to 0.1%, November and October’s CPI numbers were also revised higher.

4) The Producer Price Index results for January 2023 were reported yesterday. They showed inflation rising 0.7% month over month. On an annualized basis this puts inflation over 9%.

And all of this is AFTER the Fed raises rates 4.5% and drains over $500 billion in liquidity from the system!

The Fed now has a choice: get serious about ending inflation and trigger a market meltdown… or face a debt crisis in the near future as bond yields roar to new highs, forcing the government to spend more and more money on debt payments.

Either way, the U.S. is heading for a crisis in the near future. And most investors are being lead like sheep to the slaughter!

On that note, we published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards,

How Oil Will Trigger a Stock Market Crash

Posted on March 1, 2022 by Phoenix Capital Research

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has laid bare all the misguided, naïve policies our “leaders” have foisted upon us in the last 18 months.

Among the more foolish policies enacted by U.S. policymakers is the idea that the U.S. should NOT be energy independent but should rely on outside sources for oil.

Within days of taking office, President Biden ended the development of the Keystone XL Pipeline while putting an indefinite pause on new oil and natural gas leases on public lands.

Months later he was asking OPEC to increase production of oil because oil and gasoline prices skyrocketed. Thus far, gas is up over 90% during the Biden Presidency, while oil is close behind at 80%.

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Maybe we shouldn’t rely on countries that benefit from higher oil prices for our energy needs? Maybe those Executive Orders weren’t such a good idea? Maybe we should have people running our energy policy who actually know how many barrels of oil the U.S. consumers per day?

The icing on this cake of incompetence is the fact that the U.S. is directly financing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia supplies 7% of the U.S.’s energy needs. We are literally sending money to Putin every single day of the week… while calling him a monster. Maybe we should… stop buying oil from him!?!

As misguided as the Biden White House has been about energy policy, Europe’s leaders make it looks a bunch of geniuses. To that effect, Europe has been shutting down nuclear power plants and other sources of domestic energy production for years… all while signing deals with Vladimir Putin to supply its energy needs.

Currently Russia supplies ~40% of Europe’s gas and more than 25% of its oil.

How insane, or corrupt, or simply ignorant do you have to be to shut down domestic energy production and hand your energy needs over to Vladimir Putin? A kindergartener could tell you this was a dumb idea. But Europe’s elites signed off on it.

The end result?

Oil is above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014. And there is little if any signs it’s not going much higher.

This is going to trigger a global recession… which in turn will trigger a market crash.

The world economy which was already fragile due to roaring inflation and supply chain issues will now be contending with an energy crisis. How do you think the economy will handle $100 oil when inflation was already at major problem when oil was at $80 a barrel?

Stocks know what’s coming, as they have already broken below their 10-month moving average (MMA). The last two times this happened, the market ended up testing its 40-month moving average soon after (see the purple circles below).

That means the S&P 500 falling to 3,450 or so.

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide can show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards,

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This is the Real Reason the Fed is Terrified of Raising Rates From Zero

Posted on November 12, 2021 by Phoenix Capital Research

Why is the Fed so worried about tapering QE and raising rates?

Think about it… The Fed launched this current version of QE in a single day. Why does it take SIX months for the Fed to end it… especially since stocks are at all-time highs and the COVID-19 induced recession technically ended in June of 2020?

Moreover, this is the LARGEST QE program the Fed has ever run. The prior record was set by QE 3 in 2012 which saw the Fed printing $80 billion in new money per month. The Fed is currently printing $120 billion per month and has been doing so since March of 2020. And because it’s only tapering this program at a pace of $15 billion per month, this current QE will STILL BE larger than the prior largest QE ever a full two months into the taper!

Bear in mind, we’re only talking about QE here. The Fed is terrified of raising rates a full 15 months after the recession supposedly ended… at a time when there are truly INSANE signs of froth in the financial system

Some of the more egregious examples include:

Crypto currencies that were created as jokes worth tens of billions of dollars.
People selling NFTs for farts.
Tesla (TSLA) a $1 trillion company trading like a penny stock.
Options trading volume dwarfing that of the Tech Bubble.
SPACs with NO ACTUAL BUSINESS OPERATIONS being valued at billions of dollars.
Stocks at or recently at all-time highs across the board.
Home prices at all-time highs and rising by 20% year over year.

And the Fed is SCARED of raising rates from ZERO!?!?! We’re not even talking about raising them by 2% or more… we’re talking about raising them from 0.25%!!!

What is going on here?

What’s going on is that this entire “recovery” is based on the Fed manipulating bond yields to extraordinarily low levels.

Our current financial system is based on debt, not gold or some other hard asset. U.S. government debt, called Treasuries, are the bedrock of this financial system. The yields on these bonds represent the “risk free” rate of return against which all risk assets (stocks, commodities, real estate, crypto, etc.) are valued.

The only reason you’ve got stocks at all-time highs is because the Fed has kept rates so low while pumping over $4 trillion in new money into the system. Take that away, and the whole mess is a house of cards.

You can see this everywhere, though you might not be able to connect the dots.

The whole situation is not a real recovery, it’s just a massive band-aid over deep structural wounds that policymakers forced on the economy and financial system when they pushed to shut the economy down.

You can tell the whole thing is total BS based on the stock market alone. Notice how this latest bubble is so extreme it actually exploded out of an uptrend in ways that neither the Tech Bubble nor the Housing Bubble ever did?

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That’s why the Fed is so terrified of normalizing monetary policy. Because it threw the kitchen sink at the financial system to create this bubble.

So what happens when the bubble bursts as all bubbles do? $250 billion in QE per month? $500 billion in QE per month?

At the end of the day, this is coming whether the Fed wants it or not. It’s just a matter of when.

The big question for investors is… HOW DO WE AVOID THIS?

To figure this out, I rely on certain key signals that flash before every market crash.

I detail them, along with what they’re currently saying about the market today in a Special Investment Report How to Predict a Crash.

To pick up a free copy, swing by

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/predictcrash.html

Best Regards

Will the Economic Shutdown Drive the US into a Debt Crisis?

Posted on May 21, 2020 by Phoenix Capital Research

The bloated budget of the U.S. is only going to be getting larger. And that means the Powers That Be will be seeking out new sources of capital.

Those sources? ANYONE who has money lying around.

Let me explain…

The U.S. was already deep in debt before the economic shutdown triggered a depression. Government Debt to GDP was 106%, while total debt securities in the financial system relative to GDP was well over 400% of GDP.

Then the COVID-19 panic hit, and the U.S. economy was put on lockdown. Regardless of whether or not this move was justified, the end result from an economic and fiscal perspective is:

1) Over 36 million Americans are now unemployed and receiving unemployment benefits.

2) Tax revenues have collapsed bringing near-insolvent states (CA, NY, IL) to the brink of disaster.

The U.S. is dealing with this situation by throwing trillions of dollars at these issues.

From a monetary standpoint, the Federal Reserve has printed over $2.7 trillion since the end of February. Over the same time period, the federal government has performed a $2 trillion stimulus program. It is now voting on whether to implement another $3 trillion stimulus program.

Will this be enough?

Not likely.

A study from the University of Chicago has revealed that 68% of unemployed Americans are receiving MORE money from unemployment than they were receiving from their former jobs. In fact, the median replacement rate is 134%, meaning they are making 34% MORE money from being unemployed than they were from working.

What incentive, if any, will there be for these people to return to work when the economy reopens? If you can make more money from NOT working… why would you want to start working again?

My point with all of the above is that the U.S. is now facing the very real possibility that it will need to continue to finance trillions in unemployment benefits for much longer than was previously believed.

The debt markets will pick up much of the slack here, but at some point the political class will start looking for new sources of capital.

That source will be you, me and everyone else.

The plan behind this has been in place since 2011. Elites knew well in advance that another crisis was coming, and they put in place legislation that would allow them to:

1) Freeze bank accounts and use them to “bail-in” financial institutions/ banks.

2) Close the “gates” on investment funds/ money market funds to stop you from getting your money out.

3) Impose wealth taxes and seize unused assets.

Did you know the IMF has already called for nations around the world to introduce a wealth tax of 10% on NET WEALTH as soon as possible?

If you think that’s bad, consider that the Fed plans to both seize and STEAL savings during the next crisis/ recession.

If you think this sounds like a “conspiracy theory” we’ve actually uncovered a secret document outlining exactly how the elites plan to do this. It was written by a man who has served as an advisor to THREE separate central banks.

We detail this paper and outline three investment strategies you can implement right now to protect your capital from the Fed’s sinister plan in our Special Report The Great Global Wealth Grab.

We are making just 100 copies available for FREE the general public.

You can pick up a FREE copy at:

http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/GWG.html

Best RegardsParagraph

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Americans Are Earning More Being Unemployed Than By Working (Is a Debt Crisis Coming?)

Posted on May 21, 2020 by Phoenix Capital Research

The bloated budget of the U.S. is only going to be getting larger. And that means the Powers That Be will be seeking out new sources of capital.

Those sources? ANYONE who has money lying around.

Let me explain…

Then the COVID-19 panic hit, and the U.S. economy was put on lockdown. Regardless of whether or not this move was justified, the end result from an economic and fiscal perspective is:

1) Over 36 million Americans are now unemployed and receiving unemployment benefits.

2) Tax revenues have collapsed bringing near-insolvent states (CA, NY, IL) to the brink of disaster.

The U.S. is dealing with this situation by throwing trillions of dollars at these issues.

Will this be enough?

Not likely.

What incentive, if any, will there be for these people to return to work when the economy reopens? If you can make more money from NOT working… why would you want to start working again?

The debt markets will pick up much of the slack here, but at some point the political class will start looking for new sources of capital.

That source will be you, me and everyone else.

The plan behind this has been in place since 2011. Elites knew well in advance that another crisis was coming, and they put in place legislation that would allow them to:

1) Freeze bank accounts and use them to “bail-in” financial institutions/ banks.

2) Close the “gates” on investment funds/ money market funds to stop you from getting your money out.

3) Impose wealth taxes and seize unused assets.

Did you know the IMF has already called for nations around the world to introduce a wealth tax of 10% on NET WEALTH as soon as possible?

If you think that’s bad, consider that the Fed plans to both seize and STEAL savings during the next crisis/ recession.

We detail this paper and outline three investment strategies you can implement right now to protect your capital from the Fed’s sinister plan in our Special Report The Great Global Wealth Grab.

We are making just 100 copies available for FREE the general public.

You can pick up a FREE copy at:

http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/GWG.html

Best RegardsParagraph

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

How Mass Unemployment Will Lead to Cash Grabs, Wealth Taxes, and More

Posted on May 21, 2020 by Phoenix Capital Research

The bloated budget of the U.S. is only going to be getting larger. And that means the Powers That Be will be seeking out new sources of capital.

Those sources? ANYONE who has money lying around.

Let me explain…

Then the COVID-19 panic hit, and the U.S. economy was put on lockdown. Regardless of whether or not this move was justified, the end result from an economic and fiscal perspective is:

1) Over 36 million Americans are now unemployed and receiving unemployment benefits.

2) Tax revenues have collapsed bringing near-insolvent states (CA, NY, IL) to the brink of disaster.

The U.S. is dealing with this situation by throwing trillions of dollars at these issues.

Will this be enough?

Not likely.

What incentive, if any, will there be for these people to return to work when the economy reopens? If you can make more money from NOT working… why would you want to start working again?

The debt markets will pick up much of the slack here, but at some point the political class will start looking for new sources of capital.

That source will be you, me and everyone else.

The plan behind this has been in place since 2011. Elites knew well in advance that another crisis was coming, and they put in place legislation that would allow them to:

1) Freeze bank accounts and use them to “bail-in” financial institutions/ banks.

2) Close the “gates” on investment funds/ money market funds to stop you from getting your money out.

3) Impose wealth taxes and seize unused assets.

Did you know the IMF has already called for nations around the world to introduce a wealth tax of 10% on NET WEALTH as soon as possible?

If you think that’s bad, consider that the Fed plans to both seize and STEAL savings during the next crisis/ recession.

We detail this paper and outline three investment strategies you can implement right now to protect your capital from the Fed’s sinister plan in our Special Report The Great Global Wealth Grab.

We are making just 100 copies available for FREE the general public.

You can pick up a FREE copy at:

http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/GWG.html

Best RegardsParagraph

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Can the Fed Truly Backstop Everything… And Will There Be a Second Round to the Crisis?

Posted on April 9, 2020 by Phoenix Capital Research

The financial system today is trying to figure out what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object.

The Unstoppable Force= the Everything Bubble bursting as debt markets collapse around.

The Immovable Object= the Federal Reserve and its decision to buy EVERYTHING to stop the panic.

Regarding #1, in March we saw numerous debt bubbles burst including high yield corporate debt, investment grade corporate debt, high yield muni debt, and even investment grade muni debt.

The Fed, in an effort to stop this, announced several weeks ago that it would be buying everything. And I do mean EVERYTHING.

The Fed announced it would:

Make its quantitative easing (QE) program “unlimited.” Meaning it would simply print money and buy assets ad infinitum.
Increase the scope of its QE program from simply buying U.S. Treasuries and mortgage backed securities to include:Expand its money market QE to also include a “wider range of securities” including certificates of deposits (CDs).
- Corporate debt (debt issued by corporations).
- Corporate debt-related ETFs (stock funds linked to corporate debt).
- Municipal debt (debt issued by states, counties, and cities).
Expand its commercial paper QE program.
Introduce a new QE program to buy any asset-backed security (ABS) including student debt.
Soon begin a bailout program for small- and medium-sized business.
Lower the interest rate on its repo programs from 0.15% to LITERAL ZERO (meaning NO interest charged).

Not the Fed was buying everything including CDs, student loans, muni bonds, corporate bonds, etc. As a friend of mine joked, the only thing the Fed wasn’t buying was NFL contracts.

We are now in the process of watching to see if the Fed has succeeded or not. That is… has the Fed’s move to backstop the entire financial system been enough to stop the panic.

Thus far the answer is a resounding yes. Risk assets are up across the board and stocks are moving to retrace 50% of the initial drop in March.

However, the bigger issue… and it’s the one that may lead to a second round of the crisis is:

What is the actual economic damage caused by the Covid-19 panic and subsequent economic shutdown?

Throwing trillions of dollars at the financial system doesn’t mean that consumer spending is going to come back in a major way.

Cutting interest rates and buying asset backed securities doesn’t make people want to go to restaurants, or go out shopping, or attend sporting events.

Put another way, if the consumer doesn’t come back in a BIG way relatively quickly, then we will indeed find ourselves in a significant prolonged recession.

And that would trigger another round of the financial crisis.

With that in mind, if you’re concerned about how your portfolio might handle a crash,

On that note, if you’re worried about weathering a potential market crash, we’ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the public.

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best RegardsParagraph

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Is the Fed About to Intentionally Crash the Markets?

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Stocks broke the uptrend (blue line) last week. They only just held critical support (red line). Had they not, it would have been an absolute bloodbath,

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The media is blaming the sell-off on coronavirus, but the far more likely candidate is that stocks were extremely overbought and the Fed stopped providing liquidity to the financial system.

As of last week, the Fed’s balance sheet was actually DOWN for the year. As the below chart shows, the Fed has been pulling liquidity since mid-December, with the Fed’s balance sheet flatlining since that time.

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Why the Fed would do this is anyone’s guess. Technically it is engaged in a $60 billion per month QE program. And between this and its various repo programs, its balance sheet had been expanding by $100 billion per month from September up until December of last year.

So… did the Fed intentionally “pull the plug” on the markets?

If so, our original forecast for the S&P 500 to rip higher will be nullified. Organic buying power and buybacks can accomplish a lot… but if the Fed is ACTIVELY pulling liquidity to sabotage the markets, it means stocks are going DOWN no matter what is happening with the economy or investors.

If you haven’t already taken steps to prepare your portfolio for a Fed-induced crash, it’s time to pick up a copy of our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments willperform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

President Trump Will Use the Trade War to FORCE the Fed to Ease

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President Trump is worsening the trade war between China and the US in order to force the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy.

Before proceeding, I want to stress that none of the following is meant to be political analysis. I’m NOT saying I like any of this. I’m merely pointing out what is going on with the President of the United States and the Federal Reserve.

Since December 2018, President Trump has been harassing the Fed virtually non-stop. According to the President, the Fed is responsible for the US economy not growing more rapidly as well as the US stock market not being higher.

All told, the President has tweeted about the Fed over 30 times in 2019 alone. And he is doing so at an increasing pace, with six tweets concerning the Fed in the last 48 hours alone.

Put simply, the political pressure on the Fed has been truly incredible for the last eight months. Between the President and his advisors, there have been at least two anti-Fed statements made by the current administration almost every week for the last 26 weeks.

Having been berated for the first half of the year, the Fed finally buckled and cut rates in July by 0.25%. At that time, it was clear that the move was due to political pressure, nothing else. The Fed all but admitted this by stating the rate cut was a “mid-cycle adjustment” and not the start of an easing cycle.

The President was livid. For three months straight he and his advisors had been pushing for the Fed to cut rates by at least 0.5%. The fact the Fed only delivered a 0.25% rate cut, and then followed it up by stating it was a “mid-cycle adjustment” was a clear signal that the Fed wasn’t going to deliver in a way the President would have liked.

And so the President changed strategies, and intensified the trade war with China in order to force the Fed to ease.

The weekend after the Fed cut rates by just 0.25%, President Trump announced he was considering raising tariffs by another 10% on $300 billion worth of Chinese goods.

China, in return, has devalued the Yuan and subsequently announced it will hit the US with additional tariffs on $75 billion worth of American goods.

Which brings us to the Fed’s Jackson Hole meeting… and perhaps the most egregious example of the Trump administration using the trade war to force the Fed to ease.

Last Friday at 10AM, Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave a speech. Among other things he said:

1) Events since the Fed’s July meeting have been “eventful”

2) The Fed sees further evidence of a global slowdown, especially in Germany and China.

3) Fitting “trade policy” into the Fed’s framework is a new challenge.

4) The Fed will act “as appropriate to sustain the expansion.”

To top it off, Powell made exactly ZERO reference to the Fed’s recent rate cut being a “mid-cycle adjustment.”

The President obviously thought this was not aggressive enough and immediately tweeted:

He then followed up this scathing rebuke of the Fed with the following statement on China.

And the markets collapsed.

If you think this is over, you’re mistaken. The President is not going to back down on anything trade related until the Fed begins an aggressive campaign of easing monetary policy.

Unfortunately the level at which the Fed will finally do this is MUCH lower than most think.

On that note, we are already preparing our clients for this with a 21-page investment report titled the Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline the coming collapse will unfold…which investments will perform best… and how to take out “crash” insurance trades that will pay out huge returns during a market collapse.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the general public.

To pick up one of the last remaining copies…

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

The Final Blow Off Top Just Hit… Next Week Comes the FIREWORKS

Posted on June 20, 2019 by Phoenix Capital Research

Well, that’s that.

The markets surged on the Fed announcement of NO rate cuts because the market now believes the Fed is GUARANTEED to make a MASSIVE cut in July.

The S&P 500 (blue line in the chart below) hit our upside target for this rally, catching up the breadth (black line in the chart below). We might finish the week around here, but going forward anyone going long is effectively “picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.”

Between their expectation of a MASSIVE rate cut from the Fed in July… and hype and hope of a trade deal between the US and China at the G-20 next week, the markets are primed for MAJOR disappointment.

Look, let’s face the facts…

The Fed did NOT promise a rate cut yesterday. It removed the word “patient” from its statement and stated “uncertainties about this outlook [strong growth and 2% inflation] have increased…”

Nowhere… and I do mean NOWHERE did the Fed say a rate cut was coming. Fed Chair Jerome Powell himself didn’t even hint at a rate cut during his Q&A session stating that “we’d like to see more going forward” before changing course.

Meanwhile, the markets are SCREAMING that the economy has rolled over. The bond market is telling us the S&P 500 should be 17% lower today.

Ignore this all you like, but bonds were right in December… and they’re going to be right again this time.

Which means…

A Crash is coming…

Those investors who take the right steps to prepare for this, will make literal fortunes.

On that note, we are already preparing our clients for this with a 21-page investment report titled the Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline the coming collapse will unfold…which investments will perform best… and how to take out “crash” insurance trades that will pay out huge returns during a market collapse.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the general public.

To pick up one of the last remaining copies…

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

What Are the Odds that Bonds, Copper, and Fed Ex Are Wrong About the Economy?

Posted on June 11, 2019 by Phoenix Capital Research

Stocks have now cleared the all-important level of 2,900 on the S&P 500. The index just peeked above critical resistance (top red line in the chart below).

Overbought and overextended, stocks are now due for a correction/ consolidation. It would be completely normal to see the S&P 500 fall to retest support at 2,850 here (blue line in the chart below).

After this, the issue becomes… do stocks explode higher to new highs… or was this entire rally just a dead cat bounce. What happens at that blue line will be the answer.

If the blue line holds… it’s new highs. If it doesn’t we’re going to the 2,600s.

A lot of this hangs on the Fed, which meets June 18^th-19^th (next Tuesday and Wednesday). The stock market has rallied based on the notion that the Fed will cut interest rates… AND that doing so is a good thing.

Unfortunately for the bulls… there is the chance that the market interprets a rate cut as a BAD thing… because it would signal that the US economy has rolled over.

Bonds have already suggested the latter situation is the case… the yield on the 10-Year US Treasury has COLLAPSED… suggesting that the real economy is in BAD shape.

This alone is a problem… but when you consider that Copper, Fed Ex, and other assets that are closely associated with the real economy are saying the same thing (S&P 500 at 2,400s) it becomes REALLY WORRISOME…

A Crash is coming…

On that note, we are already preparing our clients for this with a 21-page investment report titled the Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline the coming collapse will unfold…which investments will perform best… and how to take out “crash” insurance trades that will pay out huge returns during a market collapse.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the general public.

To pick up one of the last remaining copies…

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

The Fed Needs a Reason to Cut Rates… and Stocks Will Deliver it Shortly

Posted on May 2, 2019 by Phoenix Capital Research

Yesterday’s Fed meeting had one clear message:

The Fed needs a reason to cut rates.

The Fed has obviously laid the ground work for a rate cut by hinting at easing… but with the “official” GDP numbers at 3.2% and inflation under 2%… the Fed doesn’t have a clear reason to ease just yet.

It will soon… and that reason is going to be a stock market collapse.

We are getting clear signals that the global economy is rolling over. Copper, perhaps the most economically sensitive asset in the world, has collapsed. Check out the divergence between Copper (blue line) and Stocks (black line).

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The divergence is even larger between stocks and bond yields. Remember, bond yields trade based on economic growth. Based on the below chart, the entire move in stocks since the December low was based on hopes of easing/liquidity from the Fed, NOT economic growth.

Stocks are in for a MAJOR surprise.

And when that surprise hits, it’s going to be too late for investors who weren’t paying attention. While everyone was distracted by the stock market, the Fed has been implementing plans to completely annihilate capital once the next downturn hits.

Did you know the Fed is reviewing monetary policies so extreme that it didn’t use them during the 2008 crisis?

Did you know the IMF is calling for nations around the world to introduce a wealth tax of 10% on NET WEALTH as soon as possible?

It’s all part of a nefarious plan the elites have been implementing for years.

Indeed, we’ve uncovered a secret document outlining how the Fed plans to both seize and STEAL savings during the next crisis/ recession.

Written by a top Fed official, it reveals precisely what the Fed has in store for your savings and your stock portfolio. Buckle up… because it’s some of the most horrifying stuff I’ve ever seen.

We detail this paper and outline three investment strategies you can implement right now to protect your capital from the Fed’s sinister plan in our Special Report The Great Global Wealth Grab.

We are making just 100 copies available for FREE the general public.

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Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Sign of a Top: Mom and Pop Investors Finally Piled Back Into Stocks… All Based on BS

Posted on March 15, 2019 by Phoenix Capital Research

So it was all BS.

For months now, the Trump administration, through both tweets from the President and countless articles published in the financial media, has proclaimed that a trade deal between the US and China was “just around the corner.”

Every single time these stories/ tweets hit the newswires, stocks have rallied on the news. Every. Single. Time.

And it was all complete BS.

How do I know this? Because Bloomberg just unintentionally revealed it more than halfway down an article concerning a possible meeting between President Trump and Premiere Xi of China.

Lighthizer this week pointed to “major issues” still unresolved in the talks, with few signs of a breakthrough on the most difficult subjects. Chinese officials have also bristled at the appearance of the deal being one-sided, and are wary of the risk of Trump walking away even if Xi were to travel to the U.S.

Source: Bloomberg (H/T Bill King)

Without an agreement on “the most difficult subjects” (i.e. IP theft, enforcement of violations) there is NO trade agreement. End of story.

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So all the talk of progress… all the talk of being “close to a deal” was total BS used to juice stocks higher.

And the worst part is it has suckered in Mom and Pop investors like sheep to the slaughter.

The latest fund inflow data reveals investors plowed over $27 BILLION into US stock funds and ETFs in the week ended March 13^th2019. This is an all-time record.

Worst of all, they are buying right as stocks slam into resistance, failing to score a breakout (despite countless trader games). Momentum is gone here with MACD on a “Sell” signal. We also have negative divergence on the RSI.

Indeed, in the Big Picture the stock market telling us that the bull market is OVER.

The fact is that the long-term monthly S&P 500 chart shows a CLEAR rejection at its former bull market trendline. There’s really not much but air between here and 2,050 or so on the S&P 500.

That’s a 25% drop from here… so we’re talking about a literal CRASH.

On that note we just published a 21-page investment report titled Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline precisely how the crash will unfold as well as which investments will perform best during a stock market crash.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the public. We extended the deadline based on yesterday’s sucker rally, but this it IT… no more extensions.

To pick up yours, swing by:

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Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Bull Trap Warning: There Has Been No Real Progress on China-US Trade