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Category Archives: Policy Error
Will the Economic Shutdown Drive the US into a Debt Crisis?
The bloated budget of the U.S. is only going to be getting larger. And that means the Powers That Be will be seeking out new sources of capital. Those sources? ANYONE who has money lying around. Let me explain… The … Continue reading
Posted in Policy Error
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Americans Are Earning More Being Unemployed Than By Working (Is a Debt Crisis Coming?)
The bloated budget of the U.S. is only going to be getting larger. And that means the Powers That Be will be seeking out new sources of capital. Those sources? ANYONE who has money lying around. Let me explain… The … Continue reading
Posted in Policy Error
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How Mass Unemployment Will Lead to Cash Grabs, Wealth Taxes, and More
The bloated budget of the U.S. is only going to be getting larger. And that means the Powers That Be will be seeking out new sources of capital. Those sources? ANYONE who has money lying around. Let me explain… The … Continue reading
Posted in Policy Error
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Can the Fed Truly Backstop Everything… And Will There Be a Second Round to the Crisis?
The financial system today is trying to figure out what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object. The Unstoppable Force= the Everything Bubble bursting as debt markets collapse around. The Immovable Object= the Federal Reserve and its decision … Continue reading
Posted in Policy Error
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Stocks broke the uptrend (blue line) last week. They only just held critical support (red line). Had they not, it would have been an absolute bloodbath, The media is blaming the sell-off on coronavirus, but the far more likely candidate … Continue reading
February 3, 2020
Comments Off on Is the Fed About to Intentionally Crash the Markets?
President Trump is worsening the trade war between China and the US in order to force the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy. Before proceeding, I want to stress that none of the following is meant to be political analysis. … Continue reading
August 29, 2019
Comments Off on President Trump Will Use the Trade War to FORCE the Fed to Ease
The Final Blow Off Top Just Hit… Next Week Comes the FIREWORKS
Well, that’s that. The markets surged on the Fed announcement of NO rate cuts because the market now believes the Fed is GUARANTEED to make a MASSIVE cut in July. The S&P 500 (blue line in the chart below) hit … Continue reading
Posted in Policy Error
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What Are the Odds that Bonds, Copper, and Fed Ex Are Wrong About the Economy?
Stocks have now cleared the all-important level of 2,900 on the S&P 500. The index just peeked above critical resistance (top red line in the chart below). Overbought and overextended, stocks are now due for a correction/ consolidation. It would … Continue reading
Posted in Policy Error
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The Fed Needs a Reason to Cut Rates… and Stocks Will Deliver it Shortly
Yesterday’s Fed meeting had one clear message: The Fed needs a reason to cut rates. The Fed has obviously laid the ground work for a rate cut by hinting at easing… but with the “official” GDP numbers at 3.2% and … Continue reading
Posted in Policy Error
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Sign of a Top: Mom and Pop Investors Finally Piled Back Into Stocks… All Based on BS
So it was all BS. For months now, the Trump administration, through both tweets from the President and countless articles published in the financial media, has proclaimed that a trade deal between the US and China was “just around the … Continue reading
Posted in Phony "China Deal", Policy Error, stock collapse?
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Bull Trap Warning: There Has Been No Real Progress on China-US Trade
So it was all BS. For months now, the Trump administration, through both tweets from the President and countless articles published in the financial media, has proclaimed that a trade deal between the US and China was “just around the … Continue reading
Posted in Policy Error, stock collapse?
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Anyone Who Still Thinks The Fed Has a Clue About Forecasting Needs to See This Chart
Whatever little credibility the Powell Fed still had has been permanently shredded. Throughout the last 15 months, the Powell Fed has maintained that it would be able to normalize Fed policy. This meant interest rates at historic norms (above 3%) … Continue reading
Posted in Policy Error
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Warning: The Fed Has No Idea What It’s Doing
The Fed is officially trapped. For years, I’ve stated that the Fed would never be able to normalize policy. Why? As Japan has shown us, once a Central Bank embarks on the path of extreme monetary policy like ZIRP and … Continue reading
Posted in Central Bank Insanity, Policy Error
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Warning: The Fed Will Be Using YOUR Money to Prop Up the Bubble Soon
The Fed is officially trapped. For years, I’ve stated that the Fed would never be able to normalize policy. Why? As Japan has shown us, once a Central Bank embarks on the path of extreme monetary policy like ZIRP and … Continue reading
Posted in Central Bank Insanity, Policy Error
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The Political Class Needs Capital to Plug the Everything Bubble: Prepare to Be Taxed!
Yesterday’s article caused quite a stir. I wish that represented the worst of what’s to come, but it doesn’t. Prepare to be taxed. The growing mantra from the political class is that “the wealthy aren’t paying their fair share.” While … Continue reading
Posted in Policy Error, The Everything Bubble, Wealth Grab
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The Everything Bubble Has Burst, Now Come the Wealth Grabs, Pt 2
They’re coming for your money. The Everything Bubble has burst and the debt markets are in distress. We’ve already seen yields rise above their long-term downtrend, suggesting that higher debt costs are now a reality. Because any real structural solution … Continue reading
Posted in Policy Error
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By the Time the Fed Hits Its Goals, the Markets Will Be Crashing
The Powell Fed has set one goal and one goal only for its policy… Hitting the “neutral rate of interest.” The neutral rate of interest is when the Fed has rates equal to the pace of inflation. While this is technically … Continue reading
Posted in It's a Bull Market, Policy Error
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The Trade War Is a Done Deal… the US Dollar is Toast
Perhaps the single most dangerous move an asset class can make is a “false breakout.” A false breakout occurs when an asset breaks out of a consolidation pattern, only to reverse. The reason why this development is so dangerous is … Continue reading
Posted in Policy Error, Trading Opportunity
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Don’t Be Fooled By the US Dollar False Breakout
Perhaps the single most dangerous move an asset class can make is a “false breakout.” A false breakout occurs when an asset breaks out of a consolidation pattern, only to reverse. The reason why this development is so dangerous is … Continue reading
Posted in Policy Error, Trading Opportunity
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What Happens When a Central Bank Loses Control?
Is the Bank of Japan Finally Losing Control? While we like to focus on the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) because it controls the global reserve currency (the US dollar) and therefore is the most important Central Bank in the … Continue reading
Posted in Central Bank Insanity, Debt Bomb, Policy Error
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