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Category Archives: Recession Risk
Few Things Destroy an Investor’s Portfolio Like This
By Graham Summers, MBA Stocks are now in a strange time in which they do not perceive any major threats. As a result of this, the bulls are buying stocks based on the usual “the Fed is about to pivot” … Continue reading
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The Next Major Threat to Your Portfolio Just Arrived
By Graham Summers, MBA The data is finally beginning to register that a recession is at hand. I’ve been forecasting that the U.S. economy was in recession back in November. Leading indicators and the bond market made this clear. The … Continue reading
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You Don’t Want to Miss These Three Charts
By Graham Summers, MBA The big news this week is that stocks lost their 200-Day Moving Average (DMA) again. Historically, November and December are two of the most bullish months for stocks. Only April is better from a single month … Continue reading
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The Fed Believes Inflation Will Be 2% in 2023… GOOD LUCK WITH THAT!
By Graham Summers, MBA The Fed will end its two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting today at 2PM East Standard Time. The known universe expects the Fed to raise rates by 0.5%. And the current consensus is that by … Continue reading
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The Good and Bad News For Stocks Going Into 2023
The following is an excerpt from my weekly investment advisory Private Wealth Advisory. To learn more about Private Wealth Advisory and how it can help you and your investments, Click Here! This week I have good news and bad news. … Continue reading
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This is Why Stocks Are Holding Up… But Will Soon Crash
By Graham Summers, MBA Over the last few days, I’ve illustrated how several major indicators are flashing “RECESSION!” By quick way of review: The 10y-3m yield curve has predicted every recession in the last 50 years. It’s telling us that … Continue reading
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This is Why We Opened Our Crash Trades
By Graham Summers, MBA As I noted yesterday, the bond market is telling us that a recession is just around the corner. By quick way of review, the U.S. treasury market is comprised of 12 bonds, with durations ranging from … Continue reading
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Forget Stocks, the Bond Market is Signaling Something MAJOR!
By Graham Summers, MBA It’s all trader games today. The stock market is closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving. It will also close early on Friday November 25th at 1PM. As one can imagine, most of Wall Street has already left for … Continue reading
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Warning: This is the Most Disturbing Thing I’ve Seen In Years
By Graham Summers, MBA The consumer is tapping “out.” Ever since inflation entered the financial system is early 2021, there has been a debate as to when the higher cost of living would hit consumer spending to the point of … Continue reading
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And Here Comes the Inflationary Recession
The Fed is now cornered courtesy of the coming inflationary recession. Let’s start with the economy first. The 2s-10s yield curve is just a 19.4 basis points away from inversion. The last FOUR times this yield curve inverted the U.S. … Continue reading
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The Single Best Predictor of a Recession is Signaling “WARNING!”
By now, you’re no doubt getting pretty worried about the markets. After all, why wouldn’t you? Russia has invaded Ukraine which has massive implications for natural resources. Oil is over $120 a barrel. The stock market is already down over … Continue reading
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A Yield Curve Inversion Underway… is a Recession Next?
The bond market is telling us, that the markets… and the economy… are both in very serious trouble. The difference between the yield on the 3-month Treasury and the 10-year Treasury (called the yield curve) is inverted. What this means … Continue reading
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Bonds Are Telling Us the Trump Economic Boom is Over… But No One’s Listening.
The Fed has now created the single most dangerous stock market environment possible… That’s when the economy is slowing… and stocks are RALLYING based on hopes that the Fed will soon introduce more monetary easing. This is precisely what happened … Continue reading
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