Category Archives: Recession Risk

And Here Comes the Inflationary Recession

The Fed is now cornered courtesy of the coming inflationary recession. Let’s start with the economy first. The 2s-10s yield curve is just a 19.4 basis points away from inversion. The last FOUR times this yield curve inverted the U.S. … Continue reading

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The Single Best Predictor of a Recession is Signaling “WARNING!”

By now, you’re no doubt getting pretty worried about the markets. After all, why wouldn’t you? Russia has invaded Ukraine which has massive implications for natural resources. Oil is over $120 a barrel. The stock market is already down over … Continue reading

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A Yield Curve Inversion Underway… is a Recession Next?

The bond market is telling us, that the markets… and the economy… are both in very serious trouble. The difference between the yield on the 3-month Treasury and the 10-year Treasury (called the yield curve) is inverted. What this means … Continue reading

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Bonds Are Telling Us the Trump Economic Boom is Over… But No One’s Listening.

The Fed has now created the single most dangerous stock market environment possible… That’s when the economy is slowing… and stocks are RALLYING based on hopes that the Fed will soon introduce more monetary easing. This is precisely what happened … Continue reading

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