Category Archives: Recession Risk

This is Why Stocks Are Holding Up… But Will Soon Crash

By Graham Summers, MBA Over the last few days, I’ve illustrated how several major indicators are flashing “RECESSION!” By quick way of review: The 10y-3m yield curve has predicted every recession in the last 50 years. It’s telling us that … Continue reading

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This is Why We Opened Our Crash Trades

By Graham Summers, MBA As I noted yesterday, the bond market is telling us that a recession is just around the corner. By quick way of review, the U.S. treasury market is comprised of 12 bonds, with durations ranging from … Continue reading

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Forget Stocks, the Bond Market is Signaling Something MAJOR!

By Graham Summers, MBA It’s all trader games today. The stock market is closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving. It will also close early on Friday November 25th at 1PM. As one can imagine, most of Wall Street has already left for … Continue reading

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Warning: This is the Most Disturbing Thing I’ve Seen In Years

By Graham Summers, MBA The consumer is tapping “out.” Ever since inflation entered the financial system is early 2021, there has been a debate as to when the higher cost of living would hit consumer spending to the point of … Continue reading

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And Here Comes the Inflationary Recession

The Fed is now cornered courtesy of the coming inflationary recession. Let’s start with the economy first. The 2s-10s yield curve is just a 19.4 basis points away from inversion. The last FOUR times this yield curve inverted the U.S. … Continue reading

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The Single Best Predictor of a Recession is Signaling “WARNING!”

By now, you’re no doubt getting pretty worried about the markets. After all, why wouldn’t you? Russia has invaded Ukraine which has massive implications for natural resources. Oil is over $120 a barrel. The stock market is already down over … Continue reading

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A Yield Curve Inversion Underway… is a Recession Next?

The bond market is telling us, that the markets… and the economy… are both in very serious trouble. The difference between the yield on the 3-month Treasury and the 10-year Treasury (called the yield curve) is inverted. What this means … Continue reading

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Bonds Are Telling Us the Trump Economic Boom is Over… But No One’s Listening.

The Fed has now created the single most dangerous stock market environment possible… That’s when the economy is slowing… and stocks are RALLYING based on hopes that the Fed will soon introduce more monetary easing. This is precisely what happened … Continue reading

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