The Yellen Fed is rapidly digressing into a political entity.

The Fed is allegedly independent of politics, but Janet Yellen’s latest statements leave no doubt that she is more of a political operative than an economist.

Three months ago, on October 14 2016, Yellen stated the following:

Yellen Cites Benefits to Running Economy Hot for Some Time

Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen offered an argument for running the U.S. economy hot for a period to ensure moribund growth doesn’t become an entrenched feature of the business landscape.

That would mean letting unemployment fall lower and spurring faster growth to boost consumer spending and business investment.

Source: Wall Street Journal

Compare this language to Yellen’s statement from last week.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen backed a strategy for gradually raising interest rates, arguing that the central bank wasn’t behind the curve in containing inflation pressures but nevertheless can’t afford to allow the economy to run too hot.

Still, she saw dangers in permitting the economy to overheat and inflation expectations to get out of control. “Allowing the economy to run markedly and persistently ‘hot’ would be risky and unwise,” she said.

Source: Bloomberg.

So three months ago, running the economy “hot” was a good idea. But today, it’s a massive risk that we cannot afford to take.

What changed in those three months?

Core inflation rose 0.1%. And the US closed 2016 with a sub-2% growth rate for the year. Neither of those would qualify as remotely “hot.”

The main change? The GOP took the House, Senate, and White House.

Bear in mind, Yellen’s statement came a mere 24 hours after then President-elect Donald Trump commented that the US Dollar was “too strong.”

So… we have a Fed chair performing a 180% on running a “hot” economy within three months and openly defying the new administration’s views on the US Dollar at a time when the data doesn’t support any of her claims.

Yellen may be seeing something everyone else is not, but it is difficult to see this as anything other than political hackery.

Originally posted on www.gainspainscapital.com

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Before starting this article, I want to stress the following:

I HATE politics.

However, in today’s highly politicized world, you cannot ignore some moves.

On that note, on Tuesday night, President-Elect Donald Trump stated in an interview with the WSJ that the “USD was too strong.”

Less than 24 hours later, Fed Chair Janet Yellen, openly defied Trump, talking up the $USD and claiming the Fed was worried about inflation and needed to hike interest rates.

THIS IS ASTOUNDING.

For 8 years the Fed has engaged in some of the most profligate monetary policy in history. The Fed has expanded its balance sheet by $4 trillion, employed ZIRP for seven years, and openly talked down the $USD anytime it broke above 98.

Then, suddenly, after the November 8^th Presidential election, the $USD spiked to above 100 and the Fed didn’t say a word.

More than that… the Fed has repeatedly stated that it wants to hike rates THREE times in 2017.

THREE rate hikes in a single year… after the Fed has only raise rates TWICE in the last TEN.

Let’s be clear… the Fed is now an actively political organization. We knew the Yellen Fed was a left-leaning group, but this is truly incredible from an organization that claims to be neutral and independent.

Originally published at: http://gainspainscapital.com/

Best

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Resesarch

President Elect Donald Trump just fired a warning shot at the $USD.

Last night, the Wall Street Journal posted an interview with Trump in which he stated that the Dollar is “too strong.”

The US Dollar has since dropped like a rock.

We’ve taken out the bull market trendline going back to election night.

The $USD is officially toast.

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The flip side of this is that Gold will be going to the MOON.

The big trend for 2017 is going to be inflation. Trump hates a strong $USD as it hurts trade. And he is going to be doing the Fed’s job for it… namely, talking the $USD down.

Gold and precious metals will be entering a new bull market, outperforming most major asset classes going forward.

I’ve alerted subscribers of my Private Wealth Advisory newsletter to SIX Gold-related investments to profit from what is going to be the next major ROARING bull market.

As I write this ALL of them are up, making us money… while 99% of investors pile into stocks… like lambs to the slaughter.

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Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

The US is officially in a recession.

This won’t show up in the “official” data… because the official data is fiction. GDP numbers might as well be in a Harry Potter novel, they’re that inaccurate and ridiculous.

If you want to see what’s happening in the REAL economy, you need to look at tax receipts. When the economy is growing tax receipts rise. When it is shrinking, tax receipts fall.

As you can see below, tax receipts have gone NEGATIVE.

H/T Hedgin

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THIS ONLY HAPPENS DURING A RECESSION.

Those investors who believe that GDP growth of 5% is right around the corner are marching like lambs to the slaughter.

I’ve alerted subscribers of my Private Wealth Advisory newsletter to SIX investments to profit from what is going to be the a sharp market collapse in the coming weeks.

As I write this ALL of them are up, making us money… while 99% of investors pile into stocks… like lambs to the slaughter.

This is not surprising. We make money on 86% of our investments, outperforming the vast majority of “gurus.”

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Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

While CNBC and the financial media are pushing investors to buy into the “Stocks going to the moon” narrative, another asset class as just staged a once in a decade breakout.

That asset is Gold. The breakout is a bullish cross over in which the 50-WMA breaking about the 200-WMA.

This has only happened ONE other time in the last 16 years: in 2002.

That was the start of the last MAJOR bull market in Gold.

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Over the next nine years, Gold rose an incredible 429%.

I’ve alerted subscribers of my Private Wealth Advisory newsletter to SIX Gold-related investments to profit from what is going to be the next major ROARING bull market.

As I write this ALL of them are up, making us money… while 99% of investors pile into stocks… like lambs to the slaughter.

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Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

The media has decided that the single bets investment going forward is the US Dollar. Indeed, Marketwatch has proclaimed that 2017 will be “The Year of the Dollar.”

If you want signs of a top in a particular asset, it’s hard to beat this.

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Meanwhile, as everyone is crowding into an already overcrowded $USD Dollar trade, Gold has broken out of its downtrend. Not only that, but it’s broken above key resistance.

This asset class is absolutely HATED. Investors have been pulling BILLIONS out of Gold based ETFs. And it is the single least liked asset class for the entire investment advisor community.

I’ve alerted subscribers of my Private Wealth Advisory newsletter to SIX Gold-related investments to profit from what is going to be the next major ROARING bull market.

As I write this ALL of them are up, making us money… while 99% of investors pile into the $USD… like lambs to the slaughter.

If you want to try out a subscription to Private Wealth Advisory you can do so for 3o days for just $0.98.

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Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

The market has become one giant trade.

That trade is:

• Long US stocks
• Long the $USD
• Short Treasuries
• Short Gold

In terms of speculative positioning, as Hedgopia has noted hedge funds are net positioned in precisely these positions with the exception of Gold (net long 96.6 futures contracts).

Moreover, investment advisors are piling their clients into precisely these positions.

H/T Josh Brown

So Hedge Funds and investment advisors are positioning their clients in precisely the same trades (except Gold). All we need now are individual investors to follow suit of their own volition and we’ve got one gigantic lopsided market.

Guess, what?

According to Trimtabs since the Presidential election on November 8^th, individual investors have put $93 BILLION into stock-based ETFs.

This is more than 150% of the money investors put into those same ETFs during the ENTIRE year of 2015.

This kind of extreme buying is only seen during market tops. With investors now “all in” who is left to buy?

Stocks are already broadcasting what’s coming next.

Another Crisis is brewing… the time to prepare is now.

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Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

For more of our research you can visit us at: http://gainspainscapital.com/

Investment advisors are piling their clients into the wrong trades… again.

H/T Josh Brown

As you can see, investment advisors are pushing clients into US stocks while dumping Bonds and Gold.

And they’re doing this right as these trends reverse

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Let’s be blunt, you NEVER beat the market by doing what everyone else is doing.

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What is Janet Yellen thinking?

The Yellen Fed raised interest rates again in December 2016.

More than this, Yellen has promised the Fed will be raising rates THREE times in 2017.

This is astounding when you consider that the Fed is promising this at a time when the $USD is at a 13-year high.

Janet Yellen is playing a very dangerous game here. There is simply no logical explanation for what she’s doing here It’s madness.

A strong $USD hurts:

1)   Corporate profits (47% of corporate sales from abroad).

2)   GDP growth.

3)   Bonds (debt deflation).

4)    Mortgages and home refinancing.

5)   US manufacturing.

And more.

Indeed, there are few if any benefits to a strong $USD in the current fiat, debt-based monetary system the Fed is managing. Pushing for three rate hikes with the $USD at 102 is like pushing your friend to drink three more beers when he’s already got alcohol poisoning.

Moreover, the Fed tried this whole “we’re going to raise rates 3-4 times in the next 12 months” scheme just one year ago. That triggered a 10% drop in stocks in just two weeks’ time.

My point is this… a strong $USD does NOTHING good for the economy, nor for the corporate sector. And it’s not like the Fed can claim ignorance of this as we went through the exact same situation this time last year!

Finally, there is the $USD denominated debt to worry about.

Globally there are over $52 TRILLION in $USD-denominated debt sloshing around. This is an amount equal to nearly 70% of GLOBAL GDP.

ALL OF THIS IS AT RISK WITH THE $USD SURGING HIGHER.

Another Crisis is brewing… the time to prepare is now.

If you’ve yet to take action to prepare for this, we offer a FREE investment report called the Prepare and Profit From the Next Financial Crisis that outlines simple, easy to follow strategies you can use to not only protect your portfolio from it, but actually produce profits.

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Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

The momentum driven post election rally has ended. Next up is the US Dollar driven collapse in the markets.

Copper called this weeks ago as we noted before. No one listed. It’s now down nearly 10% from its peak and clinging to support for dear life.

Stocks are now following. They’ve taken out support. The bulls will claim we’re going to hold at 2,200, but the reality is we’re going to unwind the entire election move and then some. 2,050 beckons.

Indeed, stocks will be lucky if they don’t crash like they did in August ’15 based on what China’s doing with the Yuan.

While 99% of investors ignore this ticking time bomb, smart investors are already preparing.

If you’ve yet to take action to prepare for this, we offer a FREE investment report called the Prepare and Profit From the Next Financial Crisis that outlines simple, easy to follow strategies you can use to not only protect your portfolio from it, but actually produce profits.

We made 1,000 copies available for FREE the general public.

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Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Janet Yellen thinks the US Dollar is a ““cash is not a convenient store of value.”

Long-term she is correct. After all, thanks to the Fed, the $USD has lost 95% of its purchasing power over the last 100 odd years. Anyone who has kept their money in cash has generally lost money virtually non-stop.

However, in today’s world in which some $9 TRILLION in bonds are posting negative yields, cash isn’t looking so bad. Yes, you’ll still lose purchasing power over time… but the same is true if you buy bonds in Europe or Japan… just with more volatility.

Yellen’s disdain for cash isn’t that cash is a poor store of value… it’s that cash, particularly physical cash is one of the few “loopholes” in the current financial system that permits you to escape the insanity of Negative Interest Rates from Central Banks.

After all, there are two basic benefits to storing your money in a bank:

1. Security
2. Interest

With NIRP in place, #2 is no longer a benefit. If anything storing your money in a bank with NIRP means losing money.

This leaves #1: security.

But you can likely achieve the same security by buying a home safe and sitting on physical cash there. Indeed, this is precisely what consumers in Europe and Japan have done since Central Banks in those two regions employed NIRP.

This is why Yellen and her ilk hate cash. Central Banks want to force consumers to spend money or invest in risk assets by punishing deposits with NIRP. But physical cash avoids NIRP entirely.

Will this stop Central Banks? No way.

Indeed, we’ve uncovered a secret document outlining how the Fed plans to incinerate savings in the coming months.

We detail this paper and outline three investment strategies you can implement

right now to protect your capital from the Fed’s sinister plan in our Special Report

Survive the Fed’s War on Cash.

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Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Another ugly signal just hit the markets.

One of the most important metrics for global growth is the Australian Dollar. It, like Copper, is VERY closely associated with global growth.

Well, the Australian Dollar is CRASHING, having fallen 5% in December alone. Remember, this is not a stock we’re talking about… this is a CURRENCY going into a FREE-FALL.

Paired with the crash in Copper we noted last week, this is a NASTY “one, two” punch to the “growth” story for any stock market bull. With Copper and the Australian Dollar but entering free-falls… stocks are on borrowed time.

At the very least, we expect stocks to drop 9% in the next 4 weeks.

Another Crisis is brewing… the time to prepare is now.

If you’ve yet to take action to prepare for this, we offer a FREE investment report called the Prepare and Profit From the Next Financial Crisis that outlines simple, easy to follow strategies you can use to not only protect your portfolio from it, but actually produce profits.

We made 1,000 copies available for FREE the general public.

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Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

The markets are priming for a major inflection point.

I cannot remember a time when investors were more bullish. The Dow is currently more overbought (based on the 14 day relative strength index) than at any point in the last 20 years.

The peak of the Housing Bubble?

The Dow is more overbought today.

The peak of the Tech Bubble?

Again, the Dow is more overbought today.

The market is primed for a sharp reversal and correction. Everyone and I mean EVERYONE is “all in” on stocks. Hedge funds, commercial traders, even individual investors have piled into the market.

This will end badly as all manias do. We believe the market is primed for a 10% drop… possibly more.

THIS WILL HIT BEFORE THE END OF JANUARY.

Another Crisis is brewing… the time to prepare is now.

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We don’t want investors to miss out on the potential to turn this market volatility into profits. Private Wealth Advisory have a success rate of 89% with our trades (meaning we make money on nearly 9 out of 10 positions).

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Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

What is Janet Yellen thinking?

As the Fed wound down its QE program in 2014, the $USD hit liftoff. It has since hovered in the mid- to upper-‘90s.

Throughout this period, anytime the $USD began to move sharply higher one of more Fed officials appeared to “talk down” the $USD.

The reasoning here is simply. A strong $USD crushes corporate profits. Indeed, since the $USD began its bull market S&P 500 earnings have collapsed to 2012 levels.

A strong $USD also asks for trouble from China. It was the strong $USD that forced China to devalue the Yuan in August 2015 and again in December 2016… both of these times, US stocks collapsed 10% in the span of a few days.

Having said all of this… in the last month the $USD has erupted above 100 and the Fed hasn’t said a word.

Worse than this, the Fed raised rates again yesterday and has predicted THREE more rate hikes in 2017.

The Fed is doing this when the $USD is already at a 13 year high!?!?

The Fed is playing a very dangerous game both with China and with the markets. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a VERY aggressive Yuan devaluation in the next few weeks.

And it’s going to trigger a market meltdown just as it did in August 2015 and January 2016.

THIS WILL HIT BEFORE THE END OF JANUARY.

Another Crisis is brewing… the time to prepare is now.

Based on this situation… we’ve decided to extend our offer to explore Private Wealth Advisory for 30 days for just $0.98.

We don’t want investors to miss out on the potential to turn this market volatility into profits. Private Wealth Advisory have a success rate of 89% with our trades (meaning we make money on nearly 9 out of 10 positions).

But we cannot maintain this track record with thousands of traders following these picks.

Tonight at midnight we’re closing the doors on our offer to explore Private Wealth Advisory for 30 days for just $0.98.

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If you want to lock in one of the remaining slots, you better move quickly.

To lock in one of the last $0.98 30 day trials to Private Wealth Advisory…

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Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research