The Fed has backed itself into a corner.

For seven years now we’ve been told the US is in a recovery. However, if this were the case, the Fed would have started raising rates years ago (likely in 2012). No other recovery on record saw the Fed maintaining ZIRP for so long.

There is simply no factually credible argument for why rates should be ZIRP if the economy is expanding. You cannot have claims of a “recovery” or expansion while ZIRP is in place. ZIRP is meant to be an emergency policy meant to pull the economy out of a severe recession, NOT a long-term program.

In pictoral form, the red line in the chart below negates the blue line. There is simply NO WAY that GDP expansion is even close to accurate if rates have to be kept at zero for six years after the recession “ended.”

Indeed, even the CPI data suggest the Fed is deceptive. Core CPI is well above the Fed’s “target” rate of 2%. Even a child could look at this chart and see the breakout occurring. The Fed claims to be “data dependent” but all of the data has hit levels at which the Fed claimed it would raise rates again!

Let’s be blunt. The folks running the Fed are not idiots. They know the expansion is nowhere has nowhere near the strength that the official data claims. That’s why they’ve maintained rates at zero for so long.

However, while the expansion is weak, inflation is increasing dramatically. Which is the dreaded stagflation the US experienced in the 1970s.

Put simply, the inflation genie is out of the bottle. Core inflation is already moving higher at a time when prices of most basic goods are at 19-year lows. Any move higher in Oil and other commodities will only PUSH core inflation higher.

The Fed is cornered. Inflation is back. And Gold and Gold-related investments will be exploding higher in the coming weeks.

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Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

 

 

The Fed failed to hike interest rates in March despite the “data” hitting levels at which the Fed said it would hike. Indeed, the Fed even lowered its expected number of rate hikes for this year from four to two!

This confirms for us that the Fed does indeed want inflation.

In the last few weeks, several Fed officials, most notably Fed Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer stated not only that inflation was appearing in the US but that this is something the Fed “would like to happen.”

In separate prepared remarks in Washington, neither Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer nor Gov. Lael Brainard made direct reference to next week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. But Brainard argued for patience in rate increases amid possible risks that inflation and U.S. economic activity will fall.

“Tighter financial conditions and softer inflation expectations may pose risks to the downside for inflation and domestic activity. From a risk management perspective, this argues for patience as the outlook becomes clearer,” Brainard said.

Source: CNBC

AND…

Inflation is showing signs it could accelerate in the United States, a top Federal Reserve policymaker said in comments that back the view that the central bank will hike interest rates again this year.

“We may well at present be seeing the first stirrings of an increase in the inflation rate,” Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said on Monday in prepared remarks, adding that faster inflation was “something that we would like to happen.”

Source: Reuters

 With that in mind, take note that the Fed is finally achieving this, with US Core inflation well above the Fed desired rate of 2%:

Moreover, “sticky inflation” (considered by some to be the purest “official” measure of inflation) has hit 3%.

 

And finally, the Cleveland Fed’s Median CPI is growing at an annualized rate of 2.8%.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.8% annualized rate) in February…

Earlier today, the BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers fell 0.2% (-2.0% annualized rate) in February. The CPI less food and energy rose 0.3% (3.4% annualized rate) on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Over the last 12 months, the median CPI rose 2.4%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 2.0%, the CPI rose 1.0%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 2.3%.

Source: Cleveland Fed

Put simply, the inflation genie is out of the bottle. Core inflation is already moving higher at a time when prices of most basic goods are at 19-year lows. Any move higher in Oil and other commodities will only PUSH core inflation higher.

The Fed is cornered. Inflation is back. And Gold and Gold-related investments will be exploding higher in the coming weeks.

If you’re an investor who wants to protect yourself from the coming bear market, then you NEED to take out a trial subscription to our paid premium investment newsletter Private Wealth Advisory.

Private Wealth Advisory is a WEEKLY investment newsletter with an incredible track record.

To wit… in the last 16 months we’ve closed out  77 straight winning trades.

That is not a typo…

For 16 months, not only have Private Wealth Advisory subscribers locked in 77 CONSECUTIVE winners including gains of 18%, 36%, 69%, even 119%…

But throughout that ENTIRE TIME we’ve not closed a SINGLE loser.

Indeed, we just closed out two more double digit winners yesterday: gains of 10% and 40% opened just a few weeks before

As you can imagine, this track record is a getting a ton of attention, so we are going to be closing the doors on our current offer to explore Private Wealth Advisory at the end of this month.

So if you want to try Private Wealth Advisory for 30 days for just 98 cents, you need to get moving, because the clock is ticking and slots are quickly running out.

To lock in one of the remaining slots…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Our FREE e-letter: http://gainspainscapital.com/

Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/GainsPainsCapit

 

 

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

 

The Fed is rapidly losing control.

Core inflation has already broken above 2%.

This happened when OIL was imploding.

As well as commodities in general.

Why does this matter?

Because core inflation is ABOVE 2% at a time when commodity prices were FALLING. The Government HAS TO adjust its models to account for this so that ANY RISE in commodity prices will PUSH inflation to the upside.

Speaking of which, since bottoming in February, Oil is up over 22%. Industrial metals are up 8%.

Put simply, the inflation genie is out of the bottle. Core inflation is already moving higher at a time when prices of most basic goods are at 19-year lows. Any move higher in Oil and other commodities will only PUSH core inflation higher.

The Fed is cornered.

If you’re an investor who wants to protect yourself from the coming bear market, then you NEED to take out a trial subscription to our paid premium investment newsletter Private Wealth Advisory.

Private Wealth Advisory is a WEEKLY investment newsletter with an incredible track record.

To wit… in the last 16 months we’ve closed out  77 straight winning trades.

That is not a typo…

For 16 months, not only have Private Wealth Advisory subscribers locked in 77 CONSECUTIVE winners including gains of 18%, 36%, 69%, even 119%…

But throughout that ENTIRE TIME we’ve not closed a SINGLE loser.

Indeed, we just closed out two more double digit winners yesterday: gains of 10% and 40% opened just a few weeks before

As you can imagine, this track record is a getting a ton of attention, so we are going to be closing the doors on our current offer to explore Private Wealth Advisory at the end of this month.

So if you want to try Private Wealth Advisory for 30 days for just 98 cents, you need to get moving, because the clock is ticking and slots are quickly running out.

To lock in one of the remaining slots…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Our FREE e-letter: http://gainspainscapital.com/

Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/GainsPainsCapit

The world will soon be facing a tsunami of defaults on bad debts. This will include municipal or local government defaults, governments “defaulting” on promises they’ve made to the people (Social Security, Medicaid), a default on the social contract between society and politicians such as the one in Cyprus (a default on the notions of private property and Democracy), stealth defaults on debts in the form of inflation and finally, of course, outright sovereign defaults.

The sovereign defaults will come last; all other options will be tried first.

The reason for this is that sovereign bonds (think of US Treasuries, German Bunds or Japanese Government bonds) are the senior most collateral posted by banks for the hundreds of trillions of Dollars worth of derivatives bets they’ve made with each other.

The minute an actual sovereign default occurs in Europe, Asia or the US, then the large global banks will all be vaporized. End of story. As is now clear, the Central banks do not care about ordinary citizens. They only care about propping up the big banks.

This is why Cyprus decided to default on the social contract with its people and steal their funds rather than simply instigating a formal default. And it’s why in general we’re going to see Governments implementing more and more theft in the form of “taxes” (Cyprus called its theft a tax) in the future.

Make no mistake, the words “wealth tax” mean freezing of assets and then taking some of your savings. Anyone with more than $100,000 in a bank account should be prepared for this.

This will be sold to the public as either an attempt to tax those with a lot of money because it’s only fair that they put in more to bailout the nation OR as a form of financial terrorism e.g. “either you take a 7% cut on your deposits and the bank stays afloat or the bank crashes and you lose everything.”

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This will be spreading throughout the world, GUARANTEED.

Spain, Canada (which allegedly has the safest banks in the world), New Zealand and now even Germany are implementing confiscation schemes for depositors in the event of a banking crisis.

It can happen in the UK and the US as well. I am not writing that to simply scare people. The FDIC, working with the Bank of England published a paper proposing precisely these methods to deal with Systemically Important Financial Entities (SIFIs). The paper was published in December 2012. Below are some excerpts worth your attention:

This paper focuses on the application of “top-down” resolution strategies that involve a single resolution authority applying its powers to the top of a financial group, that is, at the parent company level. The paper discusses how such a top-down strategy could be implemented for a U.S. or a U.K. financial group in a cross-border context…

These strategies have been designed to enable large and complex cross- border firms to be resolved without threatening financial stability and without putting public funds at risk…

Under the strategies currently being developed by the U.S. and the U.K., the resolution authority could intervene at the top of the group. Culpable senior management of the parent and operating businesses would be removed, and losses would be apportioned to shareholders and unsecured creditors. In all likelihood, shareholders would lose all value and unsecured creditors should thus expect that their claims would be written down to reflect any losses that shareholders did not cover. Under both the U.S. and U.K. approaches, legal safeguards ensure that creditors recover no less than they would under insolvency.

An efficient path for returning the sound operations of the G-SIFI to the private sector would be provided by exchanging or converting a sufficient amount of the unsecured debt from the original creditors of the failed company into equity. In the U.S., the new equity would become capital in one or more newly formed operating entities. In the U.K., the same approach could be used, or the equity could be used to recapitalize the failing financial company itself—thus, the highest layer of surviving bailed-in creditors would become the owners of the resolved firm. In either country, the new equity holders would take on the corresponding risk of being shareholders in a financial institution. Throughout, subsidiaries (domestic and foreign) carrying out critical activities would be kept open and operating, thereby limiting contagion effects. Such a resolution strategy would ensure market discipline and maintain financial stability without cost to taxpayers.

Title II of the Dodd-Frank Act provides the FDIC with new powers to resolve SIFIs [systemically important financial institutions] by establishing the orderly liquidation authority (OLA). Under the OLA, the FDIC may be appointed receiver for any U.S. financial company that meets specified criteria, including being in default or in danger of default, and whose resolution under the U.S. Bankruptcy Code (or other relevant insolvency process) would likely create systemic instability.

[In the US] Title II requires that the losses of any financial company placed into receivership will not be borne by taxpayers, but by common and preferred stockholders, debt holders, and other unsecured creditors, and that management responsible for the condition of the financial company will be replaced…

http://www.fdic.gov/about/srac/2012/gsifi.pdf

So… if a large bank fails in the US, the FDIC steps in and takes over, replacing management, and works to shrink the bank by writing-down liabilities and converting debt into equity.

In other words… any liability at the bank is in danger of being written-down should the bank fail. And guess what? Deposits are considered liabilities according to US Banking Law and depositors are creditors.

So… if a large bank fails in the US, your deposits at this bank would either be “written-down” (read: disappear) or converted into equity or stock shares in the company. And once they are converted to equity you are a shareholder not a depositor… so you are no longer insured by the FDIC.

So if the bank then fails (meaning its shares fall)… so does your deposit.

Let’s run through this.

Let’s say ABC bank fails in the US. ABC bank is too big for the FDIC to make hold. So…

• The FDIC takes over the bank.
• The bank’s managers are forced out.
• The bank’s debts and liabilities are converted into equity or the bank’s stock. And yes, your deposits are considered a “liability” for the bank.
• Whatever happens to the bank’s stock, affects your wealth. If the bank’s stock falls at this point because everyone has figured out the bank is in major trouble… your wealth falls to.

Let’s say you have $1,000,000 in deposits at financial institutions ABC. When ABC fails, your deposits are converted into $1,000,000 worth of ABC’s stock (let’s say you get 1,000,000 shares valued at $1 each for $1,000,000).

Now let’s say ABC’s shares fall in value from $1.00 to $0.50.

You just lost $500,000 of your wealth.

This is precisely what has happened in Spain during the 2012 banking crisis over there.

And it is perfectly legal in the US courtesy of a clause in the Dodd-Frank bill.

This is the template for what’s going to be implemented globally in the coming months. When push comes to shove, it will be taxpayers, NOT Central Banks who are on the hook for the next round of bailouts.

If you’re an investor who wants to protect yourself from the coming bear market, then you NEED to take out a trial subscription to our paid premium investment newsletter Private Wealth Advisory.

Private Wealth Advisory is a WEEKLY investment newsletter with an incredible track record.

To wit… in the last 16 months we’ve closed out  77 straight winning trades.

That is not a typo…

For 16 months, not only have Private Wealth Advisory subscribers locked in 77 CONSECUTIVE winners including gains of 18%, 36%, 69%, even 119%…

But throughout that ENTIRE TIME we’ve not closed a SINGLE loser.

Indeed, we just closed out two more double digit winners yesterday: gains of 10% and 40% opened just a few weeks before

As you can imagine, this track record is a getting a ton of attention, so we are going to be closing the doors on our current offer to explore Private Wealth Advisory at the end of this month.

So if you want to try Private Wealth Advisory for 30 days for just 98 cents, you need to get moving, because the clock is ticking and slots are quickly running out.

To lock in one of the remaining slots…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Our FREE e-letter: http://gainspainscapital.com/

Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/GainsPainsCapit

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The markets are down sharply overnight.

As I warned clients yesterday, it’s very likely
the bounce is over.

If you are not preparing for a bear market in stocks, you
NEED to do so NOW.

I can show you how.

To wit… in the last 16 months we’ve closed
out  77 straight winning trades.

That is not a typo…

For 16 months, not only have Private Wealth Advisory
subscribers locked in 77 CONSECUTIVE winners
including gains of 18%, 36%, 69%, even 119%…

But throughout that ENTIRE TIME we’ve not
closed a SINGLE loser.

Heck, we just closed two more double digit
winners yesterday: gains of 10% and 40%
both of them opened just a few weeks ago.

As you can imagine, this track record is a getting a
lot of attention, so we are going to be closing the
doors on our current offer to explore
Private Wealth Advisory at the end of this month.

So if you want to try Private Wealth Advisory for
30 days for just 98 cents, you need to get moving,
because slots are quickly running out.

To lock in one of the remaining slots…

Click Here Now!

Phoenix Capital Research

For six years, the world has operated under a complete delusion that Central Banks somehow fixed the 2008 Crisis.

All of the arguments claiming this defied common sense. A 5^th grader would tell you that you cannot solve a debt problem by issuing more debt. Similarly, anyone with a functioning brain could tell you that a bunch of academics with no real-world experience, none of whom have ever started a business or created a single job can’t “save” the economy.

However, there is an AWFUL lot of money at stake in believing these lies. So the media and the banks and the politicians were happy to promote them. Indeed, one could very easily argue that nearly all of the wealth and power held by those at the top of the economy stem from this fiction.

So it’s little surprise that no one would admit the facts: that the Fed and other Central Banks not only don’t have a clue how to fix the problem, but that they actually have almost no incentive to do so.

———————————————————————————

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Our options service THE CRISIS TRADER is absolutely KILLING it.

We have a success rate of 72% meaning we make money on more than seven out of 10 trades.

Even if you include ALL of our losers, we finished 2015 UP 35%

Over the same time period, the S&P 500 was DOWN.

This continues this year. Already we’ve closed out FIVE double digit winners in 2016. Including a 43% gain closed within 24 hours of us opening it!

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So here are the facts:

1)   The REAL problem for the financial system is the bond bubble. In 2008 when the crisis hit it was $80 trillion. It has since grown to over $100 trillion.

2)   The derivatives market that uses this bond bubble as collateral is over $555 trillion in size.

3)   Many of the large multinational corporations, sovereign governments, and even municipalities have used derivatives to fake earnings and hide debt. NO ONE knows to what degree this has been the case, but given that 20% of corporate CFOs have admitted to faking earnings in the past, it’s likely a significant amount.

4)   Corporations today are more leveraged than they were in 2007. As Stanley Druckenmiller noted recently, in 2007 corporate bonds were $3.5 trillion… today they are $7 trillion: an amount equal to nearly 50% of US GDP.

5)   The Central Banks are now all leveraged at levels greater than or equal to where Lehman Brothers was when it imploded. The Fed is leveraged at 78 to 1. The ECB is leveraged at over 26 to 1. Lehman Brothers was leveraged at 30 to 1.

6)   The Central Banks have no idea how to exit their strategies. Fed minutes released from 2009 show Janet Yellen was worried about how to exit when the Fed’s balance sheet was $1.3 trillion (back in 2009). Today it’s over $4.5 trillion.

We are heading for a crisis that will be exponentially worse than 2008. The global Central Banks have literally bet the financial system that their theories will work.  They haven’t. All they’ve done is set the stage for an even worse crisis in which entire countries will go bankrupt.

The situation is clear: the 2008 Crisis was the warm up. The next Crisis will be THE REAL Crisis. The Crisis in which Central Banking itself will fail.

If you’re an investor who wants to protect yourself from the coming bear market, then you NEED to take out a trial subscription to our paid premium investment newsletter Private Wealth Advisory.

Private Wealth Advisory is a WEEKLY investment newsletter with an incredible track record.

To wit… in the last 16 months we’ve closed out  77 straight winning trades.

That is not a typo…

For 16 months, not only have Private Wealth Advisory subscribers locked in 77 CONSECUTIVE winners including gains of 18%, 36%, 69%, even 119%…

But throughout that ENTIRE TIME we’ve not closed a SINGLE loser.

Indeed, we just closed out two more double digit winners yesterday: gains of 10% and 40% opened just a few weeks before

As you can imagine, this track record is a getting a ton of attention, so we are going to be closing the doors on our current offer to explore Private Wealth Advisory at the end of this month.

So if you want to try Private Wealth Advisory for 30 days for just 98 cents, you need to get moving, because the clock is ticking and slots are quickly running out.

To lock in one of the remaining slots…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

 

Phoenix Capital Research

The Fed is rapidly losing control.

Core inflation has already broken above 2%.

This happened when OIL was imploding.

As well as commodities in general.

Why does this matter?

Because core inflation is ABOVE 2% at a time when commodity prices were FALLING. The Government HAS TO adjust its models to account for this so that ANY RISE in commodity prices will PUSH inflation to the upside.

Speaking of which, since bottoming in February, Oil is up over 22%. Industrial metals are up 8%.

Put simply, the inflation genie is out of the bottle. Core inflation is already moving higher at a time when prices of most basic goods are at 19-year lows. Any move higher in Oil and other commodities will only PUSH core inflation higher.

The Fed is cornered.

If you’re an investor who wants to protect yourself from the coming bear market, then you NEED to take out a trial subscription to our paid premium investment newsletter Private Wealth Advisory.

Private Wealth Advisory is a WEEKLY investment newsletter with an incredible track record.

To wit… in the last 16 months we’ve closed out  77 straight winning trades.

That is not a typo…

For 16 months, not only have Private Wealth Advisory subscribers locked in 77 CONSECUTIVE winners including gains of 18%, 36%, 69%, even 119%…

But throughout that ENTIRE TIME we’ve not closed a SINGLE loser.

Indeed, we just closed out two more double digit winners yesterday: gains of 10% and 40% opened just a few weeks before

As you can imagine, this track record is a getting a ton of attention, so we are going to be closing the doors on our current offer to explore Private Wealth Advisory at the end of this month.

So if you want to try Private Wealth Advisory for 30 days for just 98 cents, you need to get moving, because the clock is ticking and slots are quickly running out.

To lock in one of the remaining slots…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

For six years, the world has operated under a complete delusion that Central Banks somehow fixed the 2008 Crisis

All of the arguments claiming this defied common sense. A 5^th grader would tell you that you cannot solve a debt problem by issuing more debt. If the below chart was a problem BEFORE 2008… there is no way that things are better now. After all, we’ve just added another $20 trillion in debt to the US system.

However, there is an AWFUL lot of money at stake in believing these lies. So the media and the banks and the politicians were happy to promote them. Indeed, one could very easily argue that nearly all of the wealth and power held by those at the top of the economy stem from this fiction.

So it’s little surprise that no one would admit the facts: that the Fed and other Central Banks not only don’t have a clue how to fix the problem, but that they actually have almost no incentive to do so.

So here are the facts:

• The REAL problem for the financial system is the bond bubble. In 2008 when the crisis hit it was $80 trillion. It has since grown to over $100 trillion.

• The derivatives market that uses this bond bubble as collateral is over $555 trillion in size.

• Many of the large multinational corporations, sovereign governments, and even municipalities have used derivatives to fake earnings and hide debt. NO ONE knows to what degree this has been the case, but given that 20% of corporate CFOs have admitted to faking earnings in the past, it’s likely a significant amount.

• Corporations today are more leveraged than they were in 2007. As Stanley Druckenmiller noted recently, in 2007 corporate bonds were $3.5 trillion… today they are $7 trillion: an amount equal to nearly 50% of US GDP.

• The Central Banks are now all leveraged at levels greater than or equal to where Lehman Brothers was when it imploded. The Fed is leveraged at 78 to 1. The ECB is leveraged at over 26 to 1. Lehman Brothers was leveraged at 30 to 1.

• The Central Banks have no idea how to exit their strategies. Fed minutes released from 2009 show Janet Yellen was worried about how to exit when the Fed’s balance sheet was $1.3 trillion (back in 2009). Today it’s over $4.5 trillion.

We are heading for a crisis that will be exponentially worse than 2008. The global Central Banks have literally bet the financial system that their theories will work. They haven’t. All they’ve done is set the stage for an even worse crisis in which entire countries will go bankrupt.

The situation is clear: the 2008 Crisis was the warm up. The next Crisis will be THE REAL Crisis. The Crisis in which Central Banking itself will fail.

A bear market is looming, are you prepared?

If you’re an investor who wants to protect yourself from the coming bear market, then you NEED to take out a trial subscription to our paid premium investment newsletter Private Wealth Advisory.

Private Wealth Advisory is a WEEKLY investment newsletter with an incredible track record.

To wit… in the last 16 months we’ve closed out  75 straight winning trades.

Did I say, “75 straight”winning trades”?!?

Yes, I did.

For 16 months, not only have Private Wealth Advisory subscribers locked in 75 CONSECUTIVE winners including gains of 18%, 36%, 69%, even 119%…

But throughout that ENTIRE TIME we’ve not closed a SINGLE loser.

As you can imagine, this track record is a getting a ton of attention, so we are going to be closing the doors on our current offer to explore Private Wealth Advisory at the end of this month.

So if you want to try Private Wealth Advisory for 30 days for just 98 cents, you need to get moving, because the clock is ticking and slots are quickly running out.

To lock in one of the remaining slots…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

When it comes to analyzing long-term trends, the 10-month moving average has been a great metric for charting long-term bull market vs. bear market changes.

The 10-month moving average has been a great metric for charting long-term bull vs. bear market changes.

Generally speaking (there are of course exceptions) when stocks break above this line, they’re in a bull market. When they break below it, they’re entering a bear market.

However, when you’re transitioning from a bull to a bear market, stocks usually follow a specific pattern in which there is a bounce to “kiss” former support as the bulls attempt to reignite the lost momentum.

It is only after the “kiss” (the bulls fail) that the real collapse begins.

Again, the pattern is:

• The initial drop
• The rally to “kiss” former support
• The REAL drop

Here’s how it played out during the last transition to a bear market (’07 to ’08).

As you can see, throughout the bull market from 2003 to 2007, stocks remained above the 10-month moving average. Indeed, often this line served as key support when stocks began to lose momentum.

However, once the market peaked in 2007, it broke below the 10-month moving average with conviction. If then followed the pattern I’ve outlined, rallying to “kiss” the 10-month moving average.

And after the “kiss” came the real collapse.

Now let’s look at the current bull market begun 2009.

As you can see, once again the 10-month moving average has been a critical line of support for the market.

Initially, stocks struggled to remain above this line during 2010 and 2011. However, the Fed was quick to step in with major monetary policies (QE 2 and Operation Twist respectively) and stocks soon reclaimed the line

From 2012 onward, we were in a full-blown bull market with the 10-month moving average offering critical support.

Fast forward to today.

The meltdown in mid-2015 resulted in stocks taking out this line with conviction. They have since attempted to reclaim the line, but failed. We’re now moving in for another attempt (a “kiss”).

Unless stocks can reclaim this line, then we’re entering a full-scale bear market.

This is increasingly looking like the base case.

Remember, the last two times stocks fell below this line (2011 and 2012) the Fed moved to implement a major monetary policy.

This time around, the Fed is RAISING RATES.

A bear market is looming, are you prepared?

If you’re an investor who wants to protect yourself from the coming bear market, then you NEED to take out a trial subscription to our paid premium investment newsletter Private Wealth Advisory.

Private Wealth Advisory is a WEEKLY investment newsletter with an incredible track record.

To wit… in the last 16 months we’ve closed out  75 straight winning trades.

Did I say, “75 straight”winning trades”?!?

Yes, I did.

For 16 months, not only have Private Wealth Advisory subscribers locked in 75 CONSECUTIVE winners including gains of 18%, 36%, 69%, even 119%…

But throughout that ENTIRE TIME we’ve not closed a SINGLE loser.

As you can imagine, this track record is a getting a ton of attention, so we are going to be closing the doors on our current offer to explore Private Wealth Advisory at the end of this month.

So if you want to try Private Wealth Advisory for 30 days for just 98 cents, you need to get moving, because the clock is ticking and slots are quickly running out.

To lock in one of the remaining slots…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

 

As we warned last week, the inflation genie is out of the bottle…

We now have confirmation that the Fed is aware of this…

Two key Federal Reserve officials said Monday they expect inflation to get closer to the central bank’s target…

Their comments came after data late last month that showed core inflation rose 1.7 percent in the 12 months ended in January.

Source: CNBC

Indeed, even the Fed’s Vice Chair Stanley Fischer has warned inflation is coming… and the Fed wants it!

Inflation is showing signs it could accelerate in the United States, a top Federal Reserve policymaker said in comments that back the view that the central bank will hike interest rates again this year.

“We may well at present be seeing the first stirrings of an increase in the inflation rate,” Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said on Monday in prepared remarks, adding that faster inflation was “something that we would like to happen.”

Source: Reuters

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Now, consider that core inflation is already ABOVE the Fed’s desired target of 2%… at a time when Oil and other commodities (including those used in food) are at 19 year lows!!!

Imagine what will happen if Oil and other commodities continue to rebound!

The Fed is cornered. If core inflation continues to rise the Fed will be forced to raise rates, kicking off another Depression.

By the way, in the 12 months after the Fed hiked rates in 1937, stocks fell 40%.

Buckle up, it’s coming.

If you’re an investor who wants to protect yourself from the coming bear market, then you NEED to take out a trial subscription to our paid premium investment newsletter Private Wealth Advisory.

Private Wealth Advisory is a WEEKLY investment newsletter with an incredible track record.

To whit… in the last 16 months we’ve closed out  75 straight winning trades.

Did I say, “75 straight”winning trades”?!?

Yes, I did.

For 16 months, not only have Private Wealth Advisory subscribers locked in 75 CONSECUTIVE winners including gains of 18%, 36%, 69%, even 119%…

But throughout that ENTIRE TIME we’ve not closed a SINGLE loser.

As you can imagine, this track record is a getting a ton of attention, so we are going to be closing the doors on our current offer to explore Private Wealth Advisory at the end of this month.

So if you want to try Private Wealth Advisory for 30 days for just 98 cents, you need to get moving, because the clock is ticking and slots are quickly running out.

To lock in one of the remaining slots…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

It’s literally 1937 all over again.

Many analysts have called for the Fed not to repeat its mistake of 1937.

That mistake?

Raising rates when the economy was already weak. Doing this prolonged the Great Depression.

However, few commentators point out WHY the Fed raised rates in 1937.

The reason?

CPI hit 3.7%.

Notice that by raising rates the Fed kicked off another terrible round of deflation with CPI falling from 3.7% to -2.0% in JUST ONE YEAR.

Fast forward to today. The US’s inflation rate is moving vertical…

Core inflation is already ABOVE 2%.

The Fed is cornered. If core inflation continues to rise the Fed will be forced to raise rates, kicking off another Depression.

By the way, in the 12 months after the Fed hiked rates in 1937, stocks fell 40%.

Buckle up, it’s coming.

If you’re an investor who wants to protect yourself from the coming bear market, then you NEED to take out a trial subscription to our paid premium investment newsletter Private Wealth Advisory.

Private Wealth Advisory is a WEEKLY investment newsletter with an incredible track record.

To whit… in the last 16 months we’ve closed out  75 straight winning trades.

Did I say, “75 straight”winning trades”?!?

Yes, I did.

For 16 months, not only have Private Wealth Advisory subscribers locked in 75 CONSECUTIVE winners including gains of 18%, 36%, 69%, even 119%…

But throughout that ENTIRE TIME we’ve not closed a SINGLE loser.

As you can imagine, this track record is a getting a ton of attention, so we are going to be closing the doors on our current offer to explore Private Wealth Advisory at the end of this month.

So if you want to try Private Wealth Advisory for 30 days for just 98 cents, you need to get moving, because the clock is ticking and slots are quickly running out.

To lock in one of the remaining slots…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

 

It’s literally 1937 all over again.

Many analysts have called for the Fed not to repeat its mistake of 1937.

That mistake?

Raising rates when the economy was already weak. Doing this prolonged the Great Depression.

However, few commentators point out WHY the Fed raised rates in 1937.

The reason?

CPI hit 3.7%.

Year	Annual Average	Annual Percent Change
		(rate of inflation)
1932	13.6	-10.30%
1933	12.9	-5.20%
1934	13.4	3.50%
1935	13.7	2.60%
1936	13.9	1.00%
1937	14.4	3.70%
1938	14.1	-2.00%

Notice that by raising rates the Fed kicked off another terrible round of deflation with CPI falling from 3.7% to -2.0% in JUST ONE YEAR.

Fast forward to today. The US’s inflation rate is moving vertical…

Core inflation is already ABOVE 2%.

The Fed is cornered. If core inflation continues to rise the Fed will be forced to raise rates, kicking off another Depression.

Buckle up, it’s coming.

If you’re an investor who wants to protect yourself from the coming bear market, then you NEED to take out a trial subscription to our paid premium investment newsletter Private Wealth Advisory.

Private Wealth Advisory is a WEEKLY investment newsletter with an incredible track record.

To whit… in the last 16 months we’ve closed out  75 straight winning trades.

Did I say, “75 straight”winning trades”?!?

Yes, I did.

For 16 months, not only have Private Wealth Advisory subscribers locked in 75 CONSECUTIVE winners including gains of 18%, 36%, 69%, even 119%…

But throughout that ENTIRE TIME we’ve not closed a SINGLE loser.

As you can imagine, this track record is a getting a ton of attention, so we are going to be closing the doors on our current offer to explore Private Wealth Advisory at the end of this month.

So if you want to try Private Wealth Advisory for 30 days for just 98 cents, you need to get moving, because the clock is ticking and slots are quickly running out.

To lock in one of the remaining slots…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

The Fed is rapidly losing control.

Core inflation has already broken above 2%.

This happened when OIL was imploding.

As well as commodities in general.

Why does this matter?

Because core inflation is ABOVE 2% at a time when commodity prices were FALLING. The Government HAS TO adjust its models to account for this so that ANY RISE in commodity prices will PUSH inflation to the upside.

Speaking of which, since bottoming in February, Oil is up over 22%. Industrial metals are up 8%.

Put simply, the inflation genie is out of the bottle. Core inflation is already moving higher at a time when prices of most basic goods are at 19-year lows. Any move higher in Oil and other commodities will only PUSH core inflation higher.

The Fed is cornered.

If you’re an investor who wants to protect yourself from the coming bear market, then you NEED to take out a trial subscription to our paid premium investment newsletter Private Wealth Advisory.

Private Wealth Advisory is a WEEKLY investment newsletter with an incredible track record.

To whit… in the last 16 months we’ve closed out  75 straight winning trades.

Did I say, “75 straight”winning trades”?!?

Yes, I did.

For 16 months, not only have Private Wealth Advisory subscribers locked in 75 CONSECUTIVE winners including gains of 18%, 36%, 69%, even 119%…

But throughout that ENTIRE TIME we’ve not closed a SINGLE loser.

As you can imagine, this track record is a getting a ton of attention, so we are going to be closing the doors on our current offer to explore Private Wealth Advisory at the end of this month.

So if you want to try Private Wealth Advisory for 30 days for just 98 cents, you need to get moving, because the clock is ticking and slots are quickly running out.

To lock in one of the remaining slots…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research