The Bond Market is Blowing Up Pt 1

The bond market is blowing up.

As I outlined several weeks agothe financial system is now experiencing its first coordinated central bank tightening in over a decade.

The reason for this tightening is inflation. Inflation is a global phenomenon. Once it appears, it is everywhere. That is the case today.

Our current financial system is based on debt. Sovereign bonds, particularly U.S. Treasuries, are the bedrock of the financial system. These are the senior-most assets owned by large financial institutions. And the yields on these bonds represent the “risk free” rate of return against which all assets (stocks, commodities, real estate, etc.) are valued.

The yields on bonds have been spiking due to inflation. This is what forced central banks to begin tightening monetary policy. But thus far, they are failing to slow, let alone kill inflation.

The U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve (or Fed) raised rates by 0.25% in March. It was supposed to have ended its Quantitative Easing (QE) program that same month, but for whatever reason, chose to print another $55 billion during that time.

The yield on the 2-Year U.S. Treasury, has since spiked from 2.0% to 2.6%. That is a MASSIVE move for one of the most important bonds in the world (chart on the next page).

Chart

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A similar move has taken place with the 10-Year U.S. Treasury, which is the single most important bond in the world. The yield on this bond has spiked from 2.1% to 2.9%.

To put these moves into context, bonds, particularly, sovereign bonds, are NOT like stocks. A 2% move is a BIG move for bonds. And we are talking about a 5% move in the most important bonds in the world over the span of four weeks… when the Fed is tightening.

This means that the Fed is now MORE behind the curve on inflation than it was four weeks ago. That is a huge freaking deal. It means the bond market doesn’t believe the Fed is going to kill inflation yet. The Fed will need to be MUCH more aggressive to do so.

It is difficult to express the severity of what is happening right now in bonds. So let me provide some longer-term charts to help you visualize this.

Look at the speed of this rise in yields relative to what bonds have done over the last 20 years. From 2003 to 2006 the yield on the 2-Year U.S. Treasury rose from 1.00% to 5.00%. This represents a quintupling in yield. And it occurred when the Fed was raising rates continuously for three years straight during a major economic expansion.

Chart, histogram

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By way of contrast, the yield on the 2-Year U.S. Treasury has just gone from 0.25% to 2.6% in the span of six months.

That too is a quintupling in yield. And it took place at a time when the economy is faltering, and the Fed has barely begun tightening policy.

You can now see why this is a HUGE deal. The entire financial system will now need to reprice based on this different rate of return. The last time we saw this occur was in 2018. That’s when stocks did this:

Put simply, another collapse is coming. It might not be today or Monday… but it’s coming.

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide can show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

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Every Time This Hit, Stocks Collapsed 20% Soon After

By Graham Summers, MBA

I’ve received a number of emails asking me why stocks rallied from mid-March until this week despite the clear and obvious warning signals I’ve flagged: the economy rolling over, supply chain disruptions, inflation, and a hawkish Fed.

A significant part of this rally has been fueled by investors moving money out of bonds and into stocks. The reason for this is that bond prices fall/ bond yields rise during periods of higher inflation. This means bonds are less attractive as an asset class… which, according to modern portfolio theory, means it’s time to move capital into stocks. And not just a little.

Throughout March, investors have pulled $40 BILLION from bond funds while putting $45 billion into stocks. Because the U.S. is the “cleanest dirty shirt” as far as developed markets go, some $41 billion of the $45 billion in stock fund inflows has gone to U.S.-based funds

This is why stocks rallied in March, despite the OBVIOUS red flags. It’s not that stocks are a great investment at current prices… it’s that bonds are so much worse.

However, this looks ready to change.

The technical damage of the last few weeks has been severe. As I write this, the S&P 500 is hovering around its 50-week/ 10 month moving average. If it breaks lower here… it’s going to at least 4,200 if not 3,600.

I would also point out that the Monthly MACD (a momentum gauge) is now on a “sell signal.” This has preceded declines of 20+% every time it registered in the last four years.

Put simply, another bloodbath is coming… and smart investors are already taking steps to profit from it.

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide can show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

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Don’t Fall For the Manipulations… Another Bloodbath is Coming!

By Graham Summers, MBA

“Someone” is manipulating stocks higher. And the manipulations are getting even more desperate.

Over the last two weeks, there has been a determined effort to manipulate the stock market higher. Time and again, stocks have gone vertical on new news or no major developments.

Financial institutions do NOT attempt to move markets. In fact, the traders charged with executing these institutions’ trades are graded based on their ability to buy and sell large chunks of stocks without moving the tape.

Which is why we knew that no real investor was responsible for the moves that occurred yesterday from 9:35AM to 11:00AM, again at 3PM and finally at 3:40PM. All three of those moves saw the S&P 500 move 20-50 points on no news or developments.

No real investor does this. This is egregious manipulation. And it shows us that the manipulators are becoming increasingly desperate.

Why?

High yield credit, which typically leads the stock market, is telling us the S&P 500 should be down at 3,900 (stocks are at 4,400 right now). You can see it lead stocks higher throughout 2021. And now it’s leading them lower. Without manipulation, the S&P 500 would easily be sub-4000.

In simple terms, the signs are clear: another bloodbath is coming. The markets will soon be a sea of red again. And the losses will be staggering.

And it’s just the beginning. It’s quite possible the markets are entering a prolonged BEAR MARKET… a time in which stocks lose 50% or more over the course of months.

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide can show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

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The Next Bloodbath is Just Around the Corner

By Graham Summers, MBA

The market is once again on thin ice.

The S&P 500 cannot even maintain its 50-day moving average (DMA). And this is despite the Fed pumping $55 billion into the financial system in the last month. Moreover, the 50-DMA is rolling over again. All of this is quite bearish.

The picture is even uglier for the NASDAQ. Tech stocks broke back below their 50-DMA last week. They have since failed to reclaim it. Again, this is quite bearish.

At the end of the day, the only thing holding up stocks is the fact retail investors keep “buying the dip.” Having been conditioned to believe stocks never go down courtesy of two years of Fed interventions, this crowd continues to buy at every opportunity. They’ve collectively poured $40 billion into U.S.-based stock funds in the last six weeks.

I’m guessing no one showed them this chart:

The market is on thin ice. The next bloodbath is just around the corner.

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide can show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

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The Fed Lied… QE Didn’t End… Protect Your Portfolio From Inflation Now!

By Graham Summers, MBA

If you’ve been wondering why stocks suddenly exploded higher last month… wonder no more!

We were told the Fed ended its Quantitative Easing (QE) on March 9th 2022. That’s a strange claim given that the Fed’s balance sheet has expanded by $55 BILLION since that time. Heck, the Fed just bought ~$25 billion worth of Mortgage Backed-Securities (MBS) last week.

How odd… the Fed supposedly ended QE… but right as stocks began to break down, “someone” suddenly panic bought the markets forcing them higher… and then it turns out the Fed was actually expanding its balance sheet by $55 billion over the same time period.

To put this number into perspective, the Fed’s former QE program, the one that supposedly ended, was roughly $30 billion per month at the time it concluded. In this context, the Fed roughly DOUBLED the pace of its former QE to $55 billion… in the month AFTER QE SUPPOSEDLY ENDED.

So again, the Fed are total liars. QE didn’t end. In fact, it became larger!

Meanwhile, according to official data, inflation hit 8.5% in March of 2022… the highest year over year increase in over 40 years.  And if we were to use accurate methods for measuring inflation, it’d be over 12%.

Again, the Fed is lying. They are not tightening monetary policy. And inflation is only going to get worse from here. If you want to protect your portfolio from what’s coming, you need to act now.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary StormAnd it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

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A Swiss Billionaire Says the Potential of This Opportunity is “Unparalleled” To Anything He’s Seen Before

By Graham Summers, MBA

Do you know the Lundins?

Unbeknownst to most U.S. investors, a single family has been behind many of the largest natural resource discoveries and natural resource deals of the last 45 years.

Since 1976, they’ve discovered the largest natural gas field in the world, oil fields that have generated more than 300 million barrels of oil, and several of the world’s largest gold deposits. 

They all became billionaires in the process.

Today, this family controls 12 companies located in the U.S., France, Russia, China, and more. Every year they produce more than a billion dollars’ worth of oil, gold, uranium, nickel, and diamonds. Their name is the Lundins. And just like the Rockefeller or Carnegie empires, their fortunes began with a single self-made man: Swedish patriarch, Adolf Lundin.

If you’ve never heard of Adolf Lundin, it’s not surprising. The self-made Swedish billionaire invested primarily in natural resource companies outside of the U.S. Because of this, his name is rarely known outside of natural resource investing circles.

However, to anyone involved in natural resources investing, Adolf Lundin is something of a god. Between 1976 and 1999, Adolf Lundin made four of the largest natural resource discoveries in history. In 1976, he discovered the North Gas field offshore of Qatar: then the largest natural gas field in the world. 

This alone would cement the name Lundin in the pantheon of great resource discoverers. 

However, Adolf’s success was only beginning. In 1998, he discovered both the En Naga oil field (a 100-million-barrel discovery in Libya) and Block PM-3 (a 144-million-barrel discovery offshore of Malaysia). The following year, at age 67, he discovered the Thar Jath oil field: a 150-million barrel discovery in Sudan.

These discoveries made Adolf famous. But it was his ability as a dealmaker that made him rich. The natural resources industry is typically split between two groups: the financiers and the geologist/ explorers. 

Adolf Lundin was both.

He built up Lundin Oil and sold it in 2001 for $480 million. Musto Exploration, a gold company he owned shares in, was sold to Rio Aglom for $500 million. And another gold company, Argentina Gold, went to Homestake for $300 million. By the time he retired from exploring, Adolf was a billionaire. And he’d made many investors fortunes as well.

It sounds almost too simple, but anyone who bought shares in Lundin’s companies and held long-term would have made a fortune. Investing in natural resource companies, more than any other sector, is about putting your money with the right people.

On the one hand, you need expert geologists and wildcatters capable of discovering major finds. But you also need knowledgeable financiers who can put together the capital to start production or arrange a buy-out. Since Adolf Lundin was talented at both, his involvement in a company almost always resulted in large profits.

Adolf passed in September 2006. Today, the Lundin Group is run by two of his sons, Lukas and Ian. Both were brought into the family business at a very early age: by the time they were ten, it was decided that Lukas would manage the company’s minerals business segment while Ian would handle the oil segment.

I recently told subscribers of my Private Wealth Advisory newsletter about an “off the radar” Lundin project that 99% of investors don’t know about. It’s a small company that owns the rights to 5km of land in one of the richest environments for natural resources in the world. 

The company has released the initial results of its drilling program in January of 2022… and they are astounding… as Lukas Lundin puts it… the potential of this project is “unparalleled” to anything he’s seen in his 40+ year career.

That’s quite a statement from a man who has literally made BILLIONS of dollars investing in natural resources.

Private Wealth Advisory subscribers just began building a position in this company yesterday. Already they’re up. And I fully expect them to see triple digit returns from this company when it’s all said and done.

To find out what it is, all you NEED to do is take out a trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory.

A SIX (6) MONTH subscription to Private Wealth Advisory includes:

And best of all, you can try Private Wealth Advisory for 30 days for just $9.99.

If you find it’s not what you’re looking for, just drop us a line and we’ll cancel your subscription. You won’t pay another cent!

The book, reports and ideas you collect during that time are yours to keep. Heck, the book alone is worth $9.99, and you’re getting FREE shipping on it!

Don’t miss out on this opportunity… because the doors will close on this offer shortly. And you and your portfolio will regret missing out on it!

To lock one of the remaining slots…

Best Regards,

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This Investment is CRUSHING Everything Including Bitcoin in 2022

By Graham Summers, MBA

Pop quiz… what is the single best performing stock market sector of 2022?

If you guessed tech or Bitcoin, you’re incorrect. It’s actually energy. And it’s not even close.

Energy stocks are destroying EVERYTHING, including cryptocurrencies. Forget bitcoin, have you thought about profiting from oil?

Even more incredible is the fact that this isn’t a NEW development: the energy sector was the top performing stock market sector of 2021 as well! So it’s crushing everything else for well over 15 months!

Despite this incredible performance, the energy sector remains one of the least popular areas of investment on the planet. It’s actually the cheapest sector in the S&P 500 on a Price to Earnings (P/E) basis. And it is also the smallest sector by weight in the entire market: a mere 2.3%.

So you’ve got an incredibly cheap sector that’s unloved by the institutional crowd and that is outperforming every other sector in the market.

Sounds like a recipe for life-changing wealth to me!

For more market insights, including which stocks to buy and sell to maximize your market returns, swing by www.gainspainscapital.com

Best Regards

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The Ultimate Fed Insider Just Revealed What the Fed is Planning For the Markets

By Graham Summers, MBA

The Fed released its meeting minutes from March yesterday.

The highlights are:

1)    The Fed will likely begin raising rates by 0.5%, instead of 0.25% sometime this year.

2)   The Fed will begin shrinking its balance sheet by $95 billion per month, sometime in the next three months.

Anyone who tells you this is NOT bearish is out of their mind. The Fed is announcing publicly that it needs to tighten financial conditions as rapidly as possible. This is akin to the Fed screaming, “we want stocks lower and soon.”

If you don’t believe me, perhaps you’ll listen to Bill Dudley.

Bill Dudley is the ex-President of the New York Fed: the branch of the Fed in charge of financial markets. He is also the ex-chief economist for Goldman Sachs. He is the ultimate insider’s insider, a man who not only knows how the Fed controls things, but who actually ran the programs through which the Fed did it.

Mr. Dudley published an article in Bloomberg earlier this week that was truly jaw-dropping. The title? 

If Stocks Don’t Fall, the Fed Needs to Force Them

In his piece, Mr. Dudley makes it clear that the Fed believes it can control the economy via the stock market, not the other way around. In his own words, he writes, “

Equity prices [stocks] influence how wealthy [Americans] feel, and how willing they are to spend rather than save…”

In simple terms, the American consumer is 75% of GDP. When the stock market is up a lot, Americans feel wealthier and spend more. When the stock market collapses, they feel poorer and spend less.

Mr. Dudley then states that the Fed needs to COLLAPSE the markets to force Americans to spend less… which will end inflation. He writes…

“The Fed will have to shock markets to achieve the desired response.”

This is not the ramblings of some doom and gloom blogger… this is THE man who ran the Fed’s QE programs during from 2009-2018, when the Fed was literally attempting to save the financial system from the Great Financial Crisis.

And he is calling on the Fed to crash the markets. And don’t forget where stock prices are right now relative to the last two crashes.

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide can show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

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This is the Single Most Important Rule For Successful Investing

By Graham Summers, MBA

The single most important rule in investing is “don’t fight the Fed.”

The Fed is the single most powerful entity in the financial system. And as we discovered in 2020, there is almost no limit to its power: the Fed was able to stop the most aggressive market crash in history… and push stocks to new all-time highs, at a time when the real economy was shut-down.

Again, the Fed managed to force stocks to new all-time highs during an economic shut-down. You can focus on value investing, momentum investing, day-trading… but whatever you do, DO NOT fight the Fed.

And right now the Fed is SCREAMING that it is going to aggressively tighten monetary policy.

Over the last six weeks, multiple Fed officials, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell (the most powerful Fed insider in the world) have stated that the Fed is WAY behind the curve on inflation and needs to start raising rates by 0.5% multiple times this year.

If you don’t believe me, perhaps you’ll believe Lael Brainard.

Ms. Brainard is the Fed Vice-Chair, the Fed’s second in command. She is arguably the most liberal, pro-money printing Fed official currently in office. Rarely, if ever, has she publicly stated anything that is not in favor Fed monetary easing.

Yesterday Ms. Brainard gave a speech in which she stated the following:

·      High inflation places a “burden on working families.”

·      It is of “paramount importance” that the Fed stop inflation.

·      The Fed will start reducing its “balance sheet at a rapid pace” as early as May.

·      The Fed is prepared to take even “stronger action” if needed.

Again, this is the most pro-money printing Fed official currently in office stating publicly that the single most important focus for the Fed today is ending inflation.

This means aggressive rate hikes and shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet as quickly as possible.

So while foolish investors continue to buy every dip in the stock market… and are willing to gamble on companies that couldn’t make money even when the Fed was easing… smart investors are preparing for what’s coming.

Don’t fight the Fed. Especially when it wants to stop inflation by popping a bubble.

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide can show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

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The Fed Is Going to Trigger a Recession Within Six Months

By Graham Summers, MBA

The bond market is telling us that the Fed is in very serious trouble.

Bonds are quite complicated, so I’m going to do my best to keep things very simple here.

The Fed ended its Quantitative Easing (QE) program through which it prints new money and used it to buy assets from Wall Street in early March. Since that time, the Fed has also begun raising interest rates, implementing its first rate hike of 0.25% on March 17th.

Historically, when the Fed begins raising interest rates, it looks to the 2-Year U.S. Treasury for guidance: the Fed tracks the yield on this bond as a proxy for where rates need to go.

With that in mind, the yield on the 2-year Treasury, is exploding higher. In six months, it has moved approximately the same amount that it did from 2012-2018!!! This is a truly incredible move, and it tells us the Fed is WAYYYY behind the curve in terms of where interest rates need to go.

If you think that’s disturbing, consider the following…

This yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury is HIGHER now than it was before the Fed raised rates a few weeks ago. This means the Fed is MORE behind the curve now than it was before it actually raised rates!

We know from the inflationary storm of the late 1970s/ early 1980s that once the Fed gets really behind the curve on inflation, small moves no longer work. The Fed will NEED to be EXTREMELY aggressive going forward to stop inflation.

How aggressive?

Bill King notes that the Taylor Rule suggests rates need to be over 9.5% to stop inflation. Yes, 9.5%. Rates are at currently at 0.5%!

If you think the Fed is going to back off on its monetary tightening, you’re mistaken. The Fed HAS to move and move aggressively if it wants to stop inflation from completely destroying the economy.

This will mean the Fed intentionally triggering a recession within six months. It has no other choice. It has to end inflation and the only way to do so is to crush demand via a recession.

The time to prepare for what’s coming is NOW, before it hits.

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide can show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

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I Wouldn’t Bet Against This If I Were You

All last week, I warned that the markets are setting up for a spectacular collapse.

I noted that inflation is at levels that have preceded recessions throughout the last 50 years.

I also noted that the yield curve had inverted. This might be the single most accurate predictor of recession. It has accurately predicted every recession since the early ‘70s, including the 2020 recession (something fewer than 1% of professional investors got right). And it’s now forecasting a recession in the near future.

Today, we are adding the economically sensitive Dow Transports index to the list of recession warnings. On Friday, this stock index collapsed almost 5%. The damage was led by highly economically sensitive trucking and rail companies: companies that usually signal a recession months before the rest of the market “catches on.” 

JB Hunt is one of the largest trucking companies in the nation. Trucking might be THE most economically sensitive industry in the market. What does this chart tell you is coming?

Put simply, multiple signals with extremely accurate historical track records are screaming “RECESSION!”

What are the odds they are ALL wrong this time?

The time to prepare for what’s coming is NOW, before it hits.

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide can show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

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This Is the Only Trigger I Know Of That Predicted the 2020 Crash… What’s It Saying Today?

By Graham Summers, MBA

Thus far this week, we’ve been noting an extremely odd development. And it’s left strategic investors feeling uneasy to say the least.

Stocks, the asset class most investors pay attention to, have erupted higher. Indeed, if you only look at stocks by themselves… everything looks great right now.

The S&P 500 has gone straight up, rising well above both its 50-day moving average (DMA) and its 200-DMA. And who would have thought we’ve be within 4% of new all time highs!

Meanwhile, beneath the surface, the bond market is flashing major warning signs.

“So what?” thinks the stock investor, “bonds are boring. They only rally 2% on a big day. Stocks are up 10% and some stocks as much as 50% in a week!”

Bonds are the bedrock of our current financial system. Their yields represent the “risk free rate” of return against which every asset class, including stocks, are valued. So if bonds are signaling trouble, the entire financial system is in trouble.

The yield curve, which is a means of measuring risk in the bond market, is now inverted. This is a MAJOR recession signal that has predicted every recession since the mid-1970s. This includes the brief, but horrific C.O.V.I.D.-19 recession of 2020. And yes, bonds somehow “knew” about that in advance.

Again, this trigger has hit before every recession going back 50 years. And it just hit again.

What are the odds it’s different this time?

Look, I get it, stocks are up… a lot. Some stocks like Tesla (TSLA) or AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) are up 50% or more in just a week! So who cares about boring old bonds?

Everyone should… especially after bonds predicted the 2020 recession and crash… something fewer than 1% of investors got right. And the fact so few investors are payng attention to bonds today is enough to make you wonder if another, equally ugly situation is about to unfold.

Bonds terrified, but stocks in la la land? This is the kind of environment in which crashes happen.

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide can show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

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WARNING: The Bedrock of the Financial System is Cracking

By Graham Summers, MBA

Do you feel that?

I’m sure on some level you do…

Something isn’t right about this rally in stocks. Something doesn’t add up. In fact, something very bad is brewing in the financial system.

Stocks have erupted higher over the last week, rising 9%.

However, beneath the surface, something truly incredible is happening. In fact, it’s horrifying.

I’m talking about the bond market.

The media likes to focus on the stock market because stocks are “sexy” and grab the public’s attention. However, the reality is that the stock market is one of the smallest asset classes out there. Globally the stock market is about $89 trillion.

By way of comparison, globally the debt markets are over $281 trillion. When you include derivatives that trade based on bond yields (debt interest payments) the amount balloons up over $750 trillion.

Which is why, the complete carnage occurring in bonds should terrify everyone. Across the board, bond prices are collapsing while bond yields skyrocket.

The yield on the 5- Year U.S., Treasury is up 100 basis points this month. 100 basis points. It rose over 20 basis points last week alone.

The yield on the all-important 10-Year U.S. Treasury (the most important bond in the world) is also exploding higher. It’s up almost 75 basis points this month, roaring higher by 13 basis points last week alone.

I realize most of you likely don’t follow the bond market…  but you have to remember that  our current financial system is debt-based.

The $USD is not backed by anything finite, and U.S. Treasuries are the senior most asset class owned by the large financial institutions. They are literally the bedrock of our current financial system.

And the bedrock is cracking in a big way.

Imagine the impact it would have on a skyscraper if the bedrock, which supports its foundation began to crack… that’s where we are with the financial system today.

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide can show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

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If You Believe This… Please Stop Reading Now

By Graham Summers, MBA

The bottom is in.

As everyone knows… the Fed has saved the day again!

On Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced that the Fed is NOT going to raise rates anymore. It’s not going to shrink their balance sheet either. And best of all… inflation which entered the financial system for the first time in 40 years… is actually disappearing and will soon be gone!

That’s what stocks think, isn’t it? After all, they’ve rallied over 8% in a single week.

Heck, Tesla (TSLA) is up over 35% in one week’s time!

Oh wait… the Fed didn’t say any of that. 

In fact, Jerome Powell said the following on Tuesday:

1) Inflation is MUCH too high.

2) If the Fed finds that raising rates by 0.25% is not enough, it will begin raising by 0.5% at every Fed meeting.

3) If the Fed finds that it is not curbing inflation adequately, it is willing to overshoot to the upside with rate hikes.

So, the Fed is going to be a LOT MORE aggressive than people think. If anything, it’s warning the markets that it’s going to have to raise rates a LOT and quite QUICKLY.

Here’s what happened the last two times the Fed did this. I’m sure the third time’s the charm!

If you believe the Fed will somehow be able to stop inflation without blowing up the markets, please stop reading now.

However, if you’re a clear-thinking investor, someone who doesn’t fall for hype and nonsense… someone who is serious about using the markets to produce extraordinary gains… you should download our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide now.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

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A Twice in 30 Years Event Just Hit… and These Investors Will Use It to Get Rich

Do you want to make a fortune from investing?

If you do, then you’ve got to do what others don’t. You have to take a different approach… and look for situations most are ignoring.

Like what’s happening in bonds today.

Investors are giddy over stocks rallying. After all the stock market is up 8% in just six sessions. Meanwhile, something is brewing in bond land for only the second time in 30 years.

The 10-Year U.S. Treasury is the single most important bond in the world. The yield on this bond represents the “risk free” rate of return against which all risk assets, including stocks, are priced.

And it just broke its downtrend for only the second time in 30 years.

The last time this yield spiked out of its downtrend was in 2018. At that time, the Fed was shrinking its balance sheet by $50 billion per month and raising rates every few months.

The end result?

The $8 trillion corporate bond market blew up, and stocks crashed 20% in a matter of weeks.

This time around, the Fed has only just stopped growing its balance sheet… and has raised rates only one time! Put another way, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury is breaking out and the Fed has barely done anything!!

How long before something “breaks” again and stocks crash? How long before the investors who think like everyone else “stocks are great investments in this environment” get taken to the cleaners?

And how long before those who see things differently make literal fortunes? Just as they always do when the markets are in la la land?

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide can show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Posted in It's a Bull Market | Comments Off on A Twice in 30 Years Event Just Hit… and These Investors Will Use It to Get Rich

Ignore the Headlines Today, the Fed is Cornered.,

The entire world is waiting to see what the Fed will announce today.

Will the Fed raise rates? Will it not? Will it mention shrinking its balance sheet? Will it not?

At the end of the day, in the longer term, it doesn’t matter. Sure, whatever the Fed decides to do today will matter for a few days. But after that, things will be right back where they were to begin with.

You see, the current market cycle is markedly different from the last two.

The last two market cycles followed a clear pattern:

  1. A bubble appears.
  2. The Fed ignores the bubble for far too long.
  3. The Fed finally acts to burst the bubble by tightening monetary policy.
  4. The bubble bursts, the markets crash, and the Fed introduces extraordinary monetary policy.

This time around, we have the following situation:

  1. Inflation is in the financial system.
  2. The Fed has only just stopped easing monetary conditions.
  3. The bubble is already bursting.

In this sense, the Fed is cornered.

If it DOESN’T aggressively tighten monetary policy, inflation will trigger a recession (consumer spending is 75% of the economy), which will trigger a stock market crash.

If the Fed DOES aggressively tighten monetary policy to kill inflation, the markets will experience a credit event as the trillions of dollars’ worth of debt that rely on ultralow interest rates blows up.

There are over $10 trillion in corporate bonds outstanding. And high yield corporate bonds have already retraced ALL of their post-Covid-19 gains.

Put another way, the Fed is screwed no matter what it does. If it moves to kill inflation it blows up the debt markets. And if it ignores inflation or acts too slowly to stop it, the economy collapses.

On some level the markets know this. Take a look at the below chart and you’ll see what I mean.

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide can show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Posted in It's a Bull Market | Comments Off on Ignore the Headlines Today, the Fed is Cornered.,

Stocks Are On the Ledge of a Cliff

The stock market is clinging to the ledge of a cliff.

The weekly chart of the NASDAQ is truly. Tech stocks have been trading in a wide range since stocks peaked in November 2021. And they are just BARELY clinging to the lower line of this range on a weekly basis.

Why is this a big deal? Because if the NASDAQ closes below the lower line of this range on a weekly basis, it opens the door to an unwind of most if not ALL of the COVID-19 bull market. This would mean a 40%-50% collapse from current levels.

And all of this is happening right as the Fed ends QE and starts raising rates. Meanwhile, the economy is rolling over and the tech-heavy market is barely able to rally.

Sounds like the recipe for a crash to me!

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide can show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Posted in stock collapse? | Comments Off on Stocks Are On the Ledge of a Cliff

And Here Comes the Inflationary Recession

The Fed is now cornered courtesy of the coming inflationary recession.

Let’s start with the economy first.

The 2s-10s yield curve is just a 19.4 basis points away from inversion. The last FOUR times this yield curve inverted the U.S. experienced a recession soon after. I’ve identified that line on the chart below:

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A recession is bad enough news because it means a bear market in stocks and most likely a crash. Here’s that same chart with the S&P 500 below it. Note what happened to stocks soon after the yield curve inversion hit (note that the 1990 market saw a 17% drop, but the chart doesn’t show it well).

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On top of this, inflation is roaring in the financial system. Gasoline is up 80% in the last 12 months. Lumber is up 36%. Copper is up 15%. And wheat has exploded 90% higher!

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Remember, the consumer accounts for 75% of GDP in the U.S. What do you think happens to consumer spending when inflation eats into incomes? There is a reason Presidential ratings are highly correlated to gasoline prices!

And all of this is happening when the Fed only just ended QE and still has rates at zero.

Yes, we are rapidly heading into an inflationary recession, and the Fed hasn’t even begun tightening yet. If the Fed tightens to rapidly to kill inflation, the economy collapses. And if the Fed takes its time raising rates, inflation rages, and the economy again collapses.

The Fed is officially cornered. There is no possible way to navigate this mess without disaster. Remember the last four recessions involved a stock market crash. This one will likely prove no different.

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide can show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Posted in Inflation, Recession Risk, stock collapse? | Comments Off on And Here Comes the Inflationary Recession

The Single Best Predictor of a Recession is Signaling “WARNING!”

By now, you’re no doubt getting pretty worried about the markets.

After all, why wouldn’t you?

Russia has invaded Ukraine which has massive implications for natural resources. Oil is over $120 a barrel. The stock market is already down over 10% from its recent highs.

It’s enough to stress anyone out!

Well, unfortunately we now need to add the following: the U.S. will likely enter a recession late this year or early in the next.

According to the Fed’s research, the most accurate predictor of a recession is the 10-year/ 3 month U.S Treasury yield curve, or the difference between the yield on the 10-Year U.S. Treasury and the yield on the 3-month U.S. Treasury.

Whenever this yield curve breaks below 0%, the U.S. has entered a recession. I’ve identified this level on the chart below.

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The bad news today is that this yield curve is currently rolling over in a big way.

As I write this, it’s about to take out its upward trendline (red line in the chart below). This would mean that the yield curve is no longer trending in a positive manner but is heading downwards to the dreaded ZERO that predicts a recession.

Put another way, a break of this level would almost assuredly trigger a yield curve inversion… which would mean a recession is just around the corner.

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Please note, the last two recessions triggered stock market crashes. The yield curve inverted a mere six to nine months before the crash hit. This means we can expect a full blown crash some time later this year or early in the next

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You’ve been warned.

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide can show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Posted in Recession Risk, stock collapse? | Comments Off on The Single Best Predictor of a Recession is Signaling “WARNING!”

The Chop is Here and Next Comes the Final Puke

Three weeks ago, I told our clients that I believed the stock market would act in such a way as to induce the greatest amount of suffering to the greatest number of investors.

This meant the market trading in a “chopping” fashion, moving in a large range designed to hurt bulls and bears alike.

In simple terms, when stocks get to the top of the range, the bulls will get excited only to see stocks roll over and drop back down. And similarly, when stocks get to the bottom of the range, the bears will get excited, only to then see stocks rally hard.

Indeed, this whole pattern since the start of the year has been reminiscent of the late-2018 market collapse. That represents the last time the Fed attempted to normalize policy, only to backtrack once something “broke.”

That pattern was:

  1. An initial leg down
  2. Several weeks of chop
  3. A final puke to new lows.

In chart form, it looked like this:

In terms of today’s market, the first leg down occurred in late January. We are now 3-4 weeks into the “chop” which means the final puke to new lows is just around the corner.

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High yield credit is warning us about this in a big way.

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So is breadth.

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For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide can show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Posted in stock collapse? | Comments Off on The Chop is Here and Next Comes the Final Puke