Stocks were sold on Friday, falling to test the first line of support we outlined last week (top red line). That line held and the S&P 500 remains within a bullish rising channel we have been following since mid-October 2019. If we break here, we have more support at 3,150 (lower red line).
Regardless of what stocks do here, the big story is that 2020 is an election year.
The Trump administration has made it no secret that it cares deeply about the stock market. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin has even admitted on record that the Trump White House sees the stock market as a “report card.”
With that in mind, what are the odds the President is going to let the market fall during an election year?
We now know why President Trump was haranguing the fed non-stop last year: to get the Fed to start easing to insure his re-election.
Whether or not you agree with this doesn’t matter… the Fed has reacted by cutting rates three times and launching a $60 billion per month QE program.
Throw in the multiple repo programs the Fed is running and we’re talking about $100 billion in liquidity hitting the financial system every single month. That’s $1.2 trillion in liquidity per year.
This is going to send the S&P 500 to 4,000 before year-end.
Why is the President so intent on this?
Because Americans vote with their wallets. And no President has failed to secure a second term when the economy is strong and the stock market is roaring higher.
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Chief Market Strategist
Phoenix Capital Research