Jerome Powell is Lying and We Will All Pay For It

Posted on February 25, 2021 by The Phoenix

At this point in my career, few things surprise me.

I’ve seen the housing boom, the Great Financial Crisis, the E.U. debt crisis, bail-ins, bail-outs, Fed chairs lying to congress, BREXIT, and President Trump.

However, what Fed Chair Jerome Powell said this week made my jaw hit the floor.

In his testimony to Congress, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated:

It may take three years for inflation to hit the Fed’s goal of 2%.

Three years, as in inflation won’t hit 2% until 2024.

Bear in mind, inflation, today, right now, is well over that. Bond yields which trade based on inflation have more than doubled since August.

Gasoline prices are up over 70% since November. Lumber prices are up 52% over the same time period. Copper is up 33%. Heck, the ENTIRE commodities complex as measured by the Commodity Research Bureau’s index is up 26%!

Chart, line chart, histogram Description automatically generated

There is no sign of this stopping. Indeed, as Bill King notes, on the very day in which Fed Chair Powell was making these insane claims, gasoline surged 2%, oil surged 2.5%, copper rallied 3% and bonds collapsed.

This is akin got the financial system SCREAMING “INFLATION IS HERE!” in Powell’s ear. And he claims we won’t even hit inflation of 2% until 2024.

This is total insanity. And it is going to end horribly.

During the last bout of hot inflation in the 1970s, stocks initially bubbled up before CRASHING nearly 50% in the span of two years, wiping out ALL of their initial gains and then some.

Chart, bar chart, histogram Description automatically generated

As I keep warning, inflation is going to ANNIHILATE investors’ portfolios.

On that note, if you’re worried about weathering a potential market crash, we’ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best RegardsParagraph

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted in stock collapse? | Comments Off on Jerome Powell is Lying and We Will All Pay For It

Warning: A Bloodbath Could Be Just Around the Corner

Posted on February 24, 2021 by The Phoenix

The stock market is warning us that a real bloodbath could be around the corner.

Let’s take a look at some charts. 

The market action of the last week has been extremely problematic. On the surface things look relatively benign. The S&P 500 fell to test support and its 50-day moving average (DMA) and bounced hard.

All of this is just fine and no cause for major concern. But again, this is problematic because “under the hood” things have gotten downright nasty.

Tesla (TSLA) has been one of the most important market leaders for stocks since the March lows. It sliced through its 50-DMA with little to no trouble. Support held, but this was a very negative development and opens the door to a test of the 200-DMA.

It’s a similar story for TradeDesk (TTD) another market leader: support held, but we sliced through the 50-DMA like a hot knife through butter. Again, the door is now open to the 200-DMA.

These are market leaders. If they go to their 200-DMAs, the broader market will likely end up doing the same.

That’s a pretty significant drop.

Again, the market action of the last week is quite problematic. While the S&P 500 looks contained, market leaders have seen tremendous damage to their charts. With this in mind, the potential for a nasty drop is higher than at any point in the last six months. 

This all ties back to what I’ve been arguing for weeks now: that the inflationary forces rippling through the financial system will eventually HURT rather than help stocks. 

The reason for this is that the ONLY thing that allows stocks to remain in a bull market is if the debt markets are calm and stable.

They are not. The yield on the all-important 10-Year Treasury yield has more than doubled since August and is now on the verge of breaking its 40+ year downtrend.

This is a HUGE deal. The last time that downtrend broke was in 2018 and it resulted in the stock market losing 20% in a matter of weeks.

As I kept warning for weeks, the coming inflation is going to ANNIHILATE most investors’ portfolios.

On that note, if you’re worried about weathering a potential market crash, we’ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best RegardsParagraph

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted in stock collapse? | Comments Off on Warning: A Bloodbath Could Be Just Around the Corner

The U.S. Will Print $7 TRILLION in the Next 24 Months

Posted on February 22, 2021 by The Phoenix

And the horrifying inflationary data points keep coming!

Over the last few weeks, we’ve outlined the following:

1.    If you add up all of the money the U.S. has ever printed… over 40% of it was printed in 2020 alone.

2.    In three months in 2020, the U.S. increased its deficit by more than it had during the past five recessions combined (’73, ’75, ’82, early ‘90s and Great Financial Crisis).

3.    Under Jerome Powell, the Fed bought more Treasuries in SIX WEEKS than it did in 10 years under Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen.

4.    Agricultural commodities prices are up nearly 40% since August.

5.    The Commodity Research Bureau’s Index is up 75% since April.

These items alone are horrifying… and unfortunately for the world, there are a slew of new ones to add to the list.

  • Copper traded over $8,900 per tonne last week, hitting a 10-year high.
  • That same week, Nickel traded a $18,534 per tonne, a six-year high.
  • Lumber cleared $1,000 per 1,000 board feet, for the first time in history.

Best of all… the Fed claims that there are no signs of inflation!

Last week NY Fed President John Williams told CNBC that rising prices are due to “optimism” about the growing economy. He also claimed that inflation expectations are rising but that he sees no evidence that asset prices are “out of control.”

So the financial system is SCREAMING that inflation is already running hot, and the Fed is asleep at the wheel.

It’s only going to get worse.

As I keep stating, once inflation appears in the financial system, the only thing that can stop it is if the Fed begins to tighten monetary conditions much as Paul Volcker did in the late ’70s early ’80s.

Well, the Fed continues to print $120+ billion every single month… and has announced it won’t raise rates for another TWO YEARS!

Two years… as in 2022 to 2023.

Put another way, the Fed is going to be printing another $2.8 trillion ($1.4 trillion per year for two years) going forward. Between this and the Biden administration’s $1.9 trillion stimulus program, $2 trillion infrastructure program, and $1.7 trillion climate change program, we’re talking about ~$7 TRILLION being printed in the next two years’ time.

$7 trillion… an amount equal to 33% of US GDP.

The coming inflation is going to ANNIHILATE most investors’ portfolios.

Those who are properly prepared. however, will make literal fortunes.

The coming inflation is going to ANNIHILATE most investors’ portfolios.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the public. We extended the deadline based on the weekend run in commodities, but this is it… no more extensions.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted in It's a Bull Market | Comments Off on The U.S. Will Print $7 TRILLION in the Next 24 Months

Got Inflation? The Fed Just Printed Another $100+ BILLION This Week

Posted on February 19, 2021 by The Phoenix

Over the last few weeks, we’ve outlined some truly extraordinary facts pertaining to just how much money printing the Fed has performed.

As a brief recap:

1.    If you add up all of the money the U.S. has ever printed… over 40% of it was printed in 2020 alone.

2.    In three months in 2020, the U.S. increased its deficit by more than it had during the past five recessions combined (’73, ’75, ’82, early ‘90s and Great Financial Crisis).

3.    Under Jerome Powell, the Fed bought more Treasuries in SIX WEEKS than it did in 10 years under Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen.

All of this money printing has ignited an inflationary storm. The Fed refuses to acknowledge this, but the reality is staring us all in the face.

Put simply inflation is ripping through the financial system.

And the craziest thing? The Fed just printed another $100 BILLION this week alone.

That’s not a typo. On February 20Th the Fed balance sheet was $7.442 trillion. This week, it’s $7.557 trillion. The Fed balance sheet is not only at a new all-time high, but it’s now the size of the economies of Japan and the United Kingdom, COMBINED.

This is absolute madness. The media is claiming over and over that the COVID-19 pandemic is now under control and things will start returning to normal, but the Fed’s still printing over $120 billion in money per month.

At this pace, the Fed will print $1.4 TRILLION this year alone. Not billion, TRILLION with a T.

And they show no signs of stopping.

The coming inflation is going to ANNIHILATE most investors’ portfolios.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted in It's a Bull Market | Comments Off on Got Inflation? The Fed Just Printed Another $100+ BILLION This Week

This Might Be the Most Horrifying Thing You Read All Day

Posted on February 18, 2021 by The Phoenix

We’ve been outlining some pretty extraordinary items on these pages over the last few weeks.

As a brief recap:

1.    If you add up all of the money the U.S. has ever printed… over 40% of it was printed in 2020 alone.

2.    In three months in 2020, the U.S. increased its deficit by more than it had during the past five recessions combined (’73, ’75, ’82, early ‘90s and Great Financial Crisis).

3.    Under Jerome Powell, the Fed bought more Treasuries in SIX WEEKS than it did in 10 years under Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen.

4.    Agricultural commodities prices are up nearly 40% since August.

Well, buckle up, because today we’ve got a new astonishing fact…

The commodity index is up 75% since its April low, more than doubling the performance of stocks over the same time period.

Take a look at the above chart. Does this seem normal or healthy to you… that commodities, which are essentially inflation hedges, are more than DOUBLING the performance of stocks?

As I keep pounding the table, inflation has entered the financial system. And as we know from history, once inflation appears, nothing stops it except the Fed tightening monetary policy, by aggressively raising interest rates as Paul Volcker did in the late ‘70s early ‘80s.

However, the Fed is unwilling to even acknowledge that inflation is a problem right now.

Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Fed said earlier this week that inflationary pressures are now “downward,” meaning inflation is disappearing. She also added it’s “not time to worry about inflation risks right now.” And that doing so would cost the economy jobs.

As if that wasn’t baffling enough, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren commented yesterday that inflation is not likely to hit the Fed’s target until 2022. By the way, the Fed’s target is just 2%.

Real inflation is well north of this already. Year to date, agricultural commodities are up 6%, housing prices are up 8%, gasoline prices are up 34%, and lumber prices are up a whopping 37%.

And we have multiple Fed Presidents claiming that inflationary pressures are downward and that inflation won’t hit 2% until 2022!!

Folks, the Fed is asleep at the wheel and it’s going to allow inflation to rage out of control.

This is going to ANNIHILATE most investors’ portfolios.

Those who are properly prepared. however, will make literal fortunes.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

As I write this there are just 5 left.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted in It's a Bull Market | Comments Off on This Might Be the Most Horrifying Thing You Read All Day

The U.S. is About to Set a Record… and It’s Not a Good One

Posted on February 16, 2021 by The Phoenix

The inflationary storm clouds continue to form on the horizon.

Yesterday I noted that the U.S. is printing money at an extraordinary pace.

How extraordinary?

The Fed alone will print $1.4 trillion in the next 12 months. This comes on the heels of the $3 TRILLION it has already printed in the last year.

The Fed is not alone here.

The Biden administration is pushing the “pedal to the metal” in terms of stimulus. It is about to pass a $1.9 trillion stimulus plan. Bloomberg notes that this will be the second largest injection of federal cash in U.S. history.  

The only one larger cash injection occurred was the first COVID-19 Stimulus plan (the CARES act) which was launched at the beginning of the pandemic.

We’re now on the tail end of the pandemic and we’re about to print another $1.9 trillion in stimulus. Bloomberg notes that the Biden administration wants to spend $2 trillion on climate change and $1.5 trillion on manufacturing and childcare.

These are staggering amounts of money. Never before in history has the U.S. printed this much money.

Add it all up and the U.S. will print an amount of money greater than the GDP of Japan, the third largest economy in the world.

All of this is going to unleash an inflationary storm.

Commodities have just broken out of a 10+ year bear market.

Gold was the first to figure this out.

Then Copper.

Now it’s Oil’s turn.

All of these charts are SCREAMING that inflation is coming. And as usual most investors are asleep at the wheel.

Those who are properly prepared. however, will make literal fortunes.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

As I write this there are just 5 left.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted in Central Bank Insanity | Comments Off on The U.S. is About to Set a Record… and It’s Not a Good One

Warning: The Next Crisis is Just Around the Corner

Posted on February 9, 2021 by The Phoenix

Get ready for a staggering admission.

If you add up all of the money the U.S. has ever printed… over 40% of it was printed in 2020 alone.

That is not a typo.

Patrick Bet-David pointed this out and he’s right: if you add up all of the money the U.S. ever printed since its founding… over 40% of it was printed last year. 

Bear in mind, we’re talking about money printing, NOT issuing credit or loans (the mechanism through which most “money” enters the system today). So, we’re talking about actual cash that goes into the economy.

As I keep emphasizing, when it comes to monetary policy and financial insanity, this time IS different. The amount of money printing policymakers used to fight the COVID-19 pandemic was unprecedented. It was BEYOND crazy.

Just how insane was all this money printing?

Investing legend Stanley Druckenmiller recently noted:

1)    In three months in 2020, the U.S. increased its deficit by more than it had during the past five recessions combined (’73, ’75, ’82, early ‘90s and Great Financial Crisis).

2)    Under Jerome Powell, the Fed bought more Treasuries in SIX WEEKS than it did in 10 years under Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen.

3)    Corporate borrowing, which usually drops during recessions actually INCREASED by $400 BILLION during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Again, this time IS different. And it’s going to unleash an inflationary storm that will annihilate portfolios and the real economy.

Indeed, the situation is so serious that former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers (no relation of mine) has stated that the Biden administration risks unleashing the worst inflation “in a generation.”

Bear in mind, Summers is a Democrat. So, he is not simply engaged in partisan politics here.

Again, an inflationary storm is coming. And it’s going to annihilate most investors.

Those who are properly prepared. however, will make literal fortunes.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

As I write this there are just 9 left.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted in Inflation | Comments Off on Warning: The Next Crisis is Just Around the Corner

Why the Market is Going to New All Time Highs

Posted on February 3, 2021 by The Phoenix

As I forecast to clients in last week’s Private Wealth Advisory, stocks have bounced hard off the 50-day moving average.

The bounce consisted of a clear breakout from the downward channel formed by last week’s correction (blue lines). As I write this, stocks have been rejected at resistance (red line in the chart below) and are sitting just below their all-time highs.

I expect we’ll see that line of resistance broken shortly.

Why?

Because the market is returning to “business as usual.”

The primary concern for the stock market last week was whether or not Wall Street remained in control of the financial system. Put another way, would the Gamestop (GME) phenomenon through which thousands of individual investors intentionally pushed a stock higher to hurt a hedge fund, would become the norm.

With the regulators cracking down on the GME scheme, it is clear that Wall Street has won this round.

I’m NOT saying that I like this situation, I’m simply saying that it is clear that the individual investors will not end up winning this war (how can they with Wall Street having the regulators, government and entire system covering for them?).

Put simply, the craziness of GME is subsiding and the system appears to be returning to “business as usual.” This is what the large pools of capital were looking for in order to start buying again.

And buy they shall. After all, their compensations depend on it.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

As I write this there are just 17 left.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted in Inflation, It's a Bull Market | Comments Off on Why the Market is Going to New All Time Highs

How to Profit As Precious Metals Explode Higher

Posted on February 1, 2021 by The Phoenix

The next leg up for precious metals has arrived.

During major bull runs in precious metals, silver typically outperforms gold.

With that in mind, I like to use the silver to gold ratio as a means of measuring this. When silver outperforms gold, this line rises and when silver underperforms gold, this line rises falls.

As I write this Monday morning, silver is up 10% while gold is barely up 1%. And the silver to gold ratio will finally be breaking out of the consolidation range that has controlled price since August 2020 (blue lines in the chart below).

A picture containing diagram Description automatically generated

The big picture here is even more astonishing.

 The silver to gold ratio has broken out of a 10-year downtrend. Looking at this, it is clear the next bull market in precious metals is officially here.

Chart, line chart Description automatically generated

I want to stress here that this is NOT just about the U.S. dollar getting weaker. Silver is breaking out to new highs priced in every major currency: Euros, Yen, and Francs.

This tells us that this is NOT just about the U.S. dollar losing value. This is a true bull market in which silver as an asset class has begun to rise globally.

Bear in mind, if you choose to invest in this sector, you need to ready to stomach some MAJOR volatility. It is not unusual for silver to rise or fall 5% in a single day, and silver miners can move double digits in hours.

So, if you’re interested in profiting from this, you HAVE to be willing to “buy and hold” and rise a roller coaster the whole way up.

Best Regards

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

As I write this there are just 19 left.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted in Inflation | Comments Off on How to Profit As Precious Metals Explode Higher

What Gamestop Means for the Broader Market

Posted on January 27, 2021 by The Phoenix

Stocks have entered a kind of speculative frenzy.

You’ve no doubt heard or read about Gamestop (GME) the bricks and mortar video game retailer.

The company has been in trouble for months, failing to turn a profit since 2018. And this is happening despite revenues growing.

Because of this, hedge funds have taken MASSIVE short positions in this company, borrowing shares from their brokers to bet that GME’s stock will collapse as the company lurches towards bankruptcy. 

How big were the bets against GME’s stock? Well over 100% of the company’s shares are currently being used by shorts.

Yes, short sellers can technically borrow more shares than actually exist. And that’s where the speculative frenzy comes in.

Individual traders,(not institutional traders or hedge funds),  who are big fans of GME’s business have launched a campaign to trigger a short squeeze in GME shares.

Remember how I said the short sellers had “borrowed” GME shares? Well, this means that they need to return those borrowed shares to their brokers at some point.

The only way to do this is by buying GME’s stock.

As a result of this, GME shares have gone from $20 to over $200 in pre-market trader today. And they’ve done this in the span of two weeks.

Let’s be clear here, this move has NOTHING to do with GME’s business. This is 100% manipulation being triggered by traders taking advantage of the shorts to ignite an explosive rally.

This tells us one thing…

That for the first time in more than two decades, individual investors are coming back into stocks.

The financial media likes to talk about stocks as though everyone on the planet owns them. It’s true that roughly half of American households have exposure to the stock market, but almost all of this exposure is based on indirect purchases via 401(k)s and other stock-based retirement accounts.

Rarely, if ever, do individual Americans open brokerage accounts and start buying stocks directly.

The last time they did was at the height of the Tech Bubble – the largest stock market bubble in history. A bubble driven by loose money from the Fed and a technology revolution. A bubble that saw individual stocks rising by 25% or even 50% in a single day.

Much like what GME is doing today.

That was the kind of bubble that required individual Americans to get “stock crazy” to the point of opening individual brokerage accounts to start day trading. At the height of the Tech Bubble, a little over one in five Americans were doing this.

And we’re about to see another similar episode.

Yes, this is a bubble and yes it will burst. But for now, it remains intact. 

With that in mind, we’ve just published an investment report titled Triple Your Money With the Mother of All Bubbles.

It outlines what the Fed is doing, why it’s doing it, and a unique investment that could easily triple as the Fed unleashes a tsunami of liquidity pushing stocks to nosebleed levels.

The last time the Fed began an easing cycle, this investment rose over 1,439%. And this time around we could see similar gains.

To pick up your copy of Triple Your Money With the Mother of All Bubbles go to:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/MOAB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted in Meltup | Comments Off on What Gamestop Means for the Broader Market

The US is Running $3 Trillion Deficits Atop a $27 TRILLION Debt Mountain

Posted on January 20, 2021 by The Phoenix

Joe Biden will be sworn in as the 46th President of the United States today.

He is inheriting a US debt mountain of over $27 trillion in debt. Indeed, the US has a Debt to GDP ratio of 130%. By way of perspective, this is where Greece was when it blew up in 2010.

Biden’s solution to this issue is to issue even MORE debt via what will be one of, if not THE largest fiscal stimulus in history. He has already proposed:

1)    A new stimulus program of $2 trillion.

2)    An infrastructure program of $2+ trillion.

Beyond this, Janet Yellen, his Treasury Secretary has stated that she believes Climate Change is an “existential threat” and will use policy to fight it.

This means even MORE money printing and credit issuance.

And this is at a time when the US is already running a $3 trillion deficit.

All of this is going to unleash an inflationary storm. 

Gold has already figured this out. Other inflationary assets are not far behind.

At the end of the day, this isn’t an attack on Joe Biden or the Democrats. The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed that policymakers will deal with any and all issues going forward by PRINTING MONEY.

The fact the US is doing this at a time when it is perched atop the largest debt mountain in history will only accelerate things.

After all, with this much debt, there is no way on earth the US can pay it off. INFLATING it away is the only answer. Which is why I believe the Biden administration is going to make the already debt-crazed Trump administration look like amateurs when it comes to money printing.

Those investors who are well positioned to profit from it could see literal fortunes.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

As I write this there are just 13 left.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research


Posted in Debt Bomb | Comments Off on The US is Running $3 Trillion Deficits Atop a $27 TRILLION Debt Mountain

The Next Financial Crisis is Coming Soon

Posted on January 19, 2021 by The Phoenix

The Biden administration has yet to take office, but it already has a MAJOR problem on its hands.

That problem is the U.S. dollar.

The greenback has declined over 13% since its March 2020. That’s a significant decline to begin with. However, what’s particularly concerning is the fact that the U.S. dollar continues to plunge without ever staging a significant rally.  

Put another way, this decline is occurring with little if any breaks.

We are currently seeing a dead cat bounce off of CRITICAL support (red line in the chart below). However, once we take out that line, (and we will soon) we’re in VERY serious trouble.

Below this level, there are only TWO lines of support left for the U.S. dollar: support established during the 2012-2014 debt crisis in Europe, and support established by the 2008 crisis.

Put another way, the ONLY time in history that the U.S. doll fell to these levels was when a major Black Swan event was taking place in the global financial system.

Anything below these levels and we are talking about ALL TIME LOWS here for the greenback. Think a U.S. dollar crash.

Bear in mind, this is the situation BEFORE the Biden administration implements its intended $2 trillion stimulus program along with its $2 trillion infrastructure program. Throw in the various climate charge, reparations and other social spending programs that Biden and his allies have been talking about and you’ve got the makings of an inflationary storm.

Those investors who are well positioned to profit from it could see literal fortunes.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

As I write this there are just 19 left.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted in Central Bank Insanity | Comments Off on The Next Financial Crisis is Coming Soon

The US Dollar is in SERIOUS Trouble

Posted on January 6, 2021 by The Phoenix

The $USD in serious trouble. 

As I’ve been noting in recent articles, inflation is already in the U.S. economy. The last real bout of inflation the U.S. experienced was in the 1970s. At that time, the only thing that stopped the inflationary storm was Fed Chair Paul Volcker who raised interest rates to an astonishing 19%.

Volcker was fired of the economic carnage this policy created. And since that time EVERY Fed Chair has been terrified of raising rates. 

Put another way, this time around, there is no Paul Volcker-type Fed official willing to do “whatever it takes” to stop inflation. Which means inflation is going to rage and rage.

See for yourself.

The below chart compares the performance of the S&P 500 to the performance of the Emerging Market ETF (EEM).

When the S&P 500 outperforms EEM, this chart rallies, and when EEM outperforms the S&P 500, this chart falls. As you can see, this chart has been in a steady uptrend for the better part of the last decade (since 2011 to be exact). However, that uptrend appears to be ending.

This means we would be entering a prolonged period of Emerging Markets outperforming the S&P 500 (similar to what happened in 2001-2011). 

Why does this matter?

Because historically this ratio has lead the $USD by several months.

See for yourself. 

The below chart shows the S&P 500: Emerging Market ratio (blue line) overlaid with the $USD (black line). As you can see, the ratio between the S&P 500 and Emerging Markets has typically lead the $USD by several months.

So if the S&P 500 : EEM ratio is about to take out its bull market trendine and start collapsing, this would mean we could expect the $USD to fall dramatically just as it did from 2001-2011.

In simple terms, this would mean the $USD collapsing in a secular bear market as inflation erupted in the financial system. Precious metals would EXPLODE higher as would commodities, crypto currencies, and every other “weak $USD” play you can imagine.

Those investors who are well positioned to profit from it could see literal fortunes.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

As I write this there are just 19 left.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research


Posted in Central Bank Insanity, Inflation | Comments Off on The US Dollar is in SERIOUS Trouble

This is a Recipe for Hot Inflation in 2021

Posted on December 29, 2020 by The Phoenix

Get ready for a tsunami of liquidity to hit the financial system.

President Trump has already signed a COVID-19 stimulus bill that will give $600 to most Americans. The House of Representatives has since passed a bill to increase the amount to $2,000.

So that’s a massive wave of money flowing into the economy.

On top of this, the Fed has just pumped $162 BILLION into the financial system in the last two weeks.

Chart, line chart Description automatically generated

To provide some perspective here.

During the apex of its monetary policy response to the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, the Fed was printing $80 billion in new money per month.

It just printed $162 billion in 14 days

Again, a tsunami of liquidity is going to hit the financial system in 2021.And unlike in 2008, this time it’s going to unleash hot inflation.

One of the most baffling aspects of policymakers’ response to the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 was the total lack of inflation appearing in the broader economy.

After all, in 2008 central banks embarked on the most aggressive monetary easing in history (up until that point). Between 2008 and 2016, central banks:

  1. Cut interest rates over 650 times.
  2. Printed over $12 TRILLION in new money.
  3. And pushed over $10 trillion bond yields into NEGATIVE territory.

And yet, for the most part, inflation was nowhere to be found. Yes, the cost of the living for most Americans continued to rise, but it didn’t rise any faster than it had in the preceding 30 years. Indeed, on a year over year basis, inflation never managed to stay above 2% for very long.

So where was the inflation?

It was in stocks, housing prices, and other assets. All of the money central banks printed never got into the real economy. It went to the banks. And the banks either used it to speculate in the stock market (investment banks) or they sat on it.

This time around, in 2020, things are VERY different: between stimulus payments and central bank lending facilities directly to small businesses/ Main Street, much of the stimulus money is actually going straight into the economy.

In the U.S., we’ve already seen TWO stimulus programs of over $4.2 trillion of which at least $2 trillion will go directly into the U.S. economy. And on top of this, the Fed has put over $1.6 TRILLION in actual real money into the U.S. economy in the form of credit facilities.

Add that up are you’re talking about $3.6+ trillion in new money entering the economy this year. The U.S.’s GDP is about $22 trillion, so we’re talking about an amount of money equal to 17% of GDP.

THAT’s how you get hot inflation. And the markets know it.

Take a look at what gold has been doing.

Chart, histogram Description automatically generated

Again, BIG inflation will be the BIG theme for 2021.

Investors who are well positioned to profit from it could see literal fortunes.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

As I write this there are just 29 left.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted in Central Bank Insanity | Comments Off on This is a Recipe for Hot Inflation in 2021

Don’t Worry, the Fed Has a Plan to Tackle… Climate Change!?!

Posted on December 23, 2020 by The Phoenix

The U.S. is in serious trouble.

  • Our country is in debt to the tune of $27.5 trillion.
  • The economy is once again rolling over as states begin imposing economic lockdowns.
  • And according to Yelp, some 800 small businesses are closing per day.

In light of this economic carnage, you would think the U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve, would be introducing policies to help small businesses… or push back against lockdowns. 

You’d be wrong.

The Fed has decided the big issue it needs to focus on is…

CLIMATE CHANGE.

I’m not kidding. In November, Fed Chair Jerome Powell state the following:

 “What we’re really working on is: how do we incorporate climate change risk into all that we do,” Powell said during an online panel Thursday hosted by the European Central Bank. “It has potential implications for monetary policy, for bank regulation, for financial stability, and I would say we’re in the very early stages of trying to work through what that means for our goals.”

Powell said the Fed is in the process of applying for membership in the Network for Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System, an international group formed in 2017.

Source: Bloomberg

Nowhere and I mean NOWHERE in the original Federal Reserve Act of 1913, nor in its 1977 amendment, is there any mention of climate change. The Fed’s job as explicitly stated in the legislature is to use interest rates to insure economic growth with minimal inflation.

That’s it!

So what is the Fed up to?

Because with the U.S. at record levels of wealth inequality and income inequality, policymakers are looking for political cover to allow them to continue to provide stimulus/ interventions.

Social justice issues like climate change provide them with a politically acceptable excuse.

By introducing these topics, economic policymakers can IGNORE the fact that their money printing is the primary reason the U.S. has such horrific wealth and income inequality in the first place.

Remember, loose monetary policy inherently benefits the wealthy who can leverage up to acquire assets. Someone worth $1 billion can borrow $200 million to buy real estate and stocks, thereby amassing a second fortune when the Fed and Treasury create bubbles in those assets.

By way of contrast, someone who is worth $50K and who earns $45K per year, likely has little if any exposure to stocks or real estate. And even if that person were to invest ALL $50K in stocks and time the bubble perfectly, they’ll at best make $150K out of the deal.

Meanwhile our billionaire has likely seen his or her wealth increase by hundreds of millions of dollars.

Again, money printing and loose monetary policy CREATE wealth inequality. And with these inequalities at RECORD levels today, the Fed is looking for POLITICAL COVER to allow them to continue intervening.

Social Justice issues like climate change give them this cover. Which is why we can expect MORE talk about climate change, more money printing, and more inflation in 2021.

Gold knows this, which is why it has exploded higher in EVERY major currency.

Investors who are well positioned to profit from it could see literal fortunes.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

As I write this there are just 37 left.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.htmlParagraph

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted in Central Bank Insanity | Comments Off on Don’t Worry, the Fed Has a Plan to Tackle… Climate Change!?!

The Single Greatest Opportunity in Precious Metals is Right Here

Posted on December 18, 2020 by The Phoenix

Precious metals look ready for their next leg up.

During major precious metals bull runs, silver typically leads gold. That is precisely what is happening right now.  

The below chart shows the ratio between silver and gold. When silver outperforms gold, this chart rallies. When gold outperforms silver this chart falls. As you can see in the below chart, this ratio has broken out of a triangle formation to the upside.

This signals that we have likely entered a new period in which silver will outperform gold dramatically. And it is overall bullish for all precious metals.

With that in mind, I would note that silver has broken out of its own triangle formation.  The next upside target here is $28 if not $30 per ounce.

Gold has yet to follow suit. It has managed to break above one of the resistance lines of a complicated bull flag formation. However, it has yet to clear the second and final line of resistance. Once it does that, the upside target is $2,000 per ounce if not new all-time highs.

However, both gold and silver’s recent runs pale in comparison to that of platinum. That precious metal began a bull run in November and hasn’t looked back.

And by the look of the long-term chart, platinum is about to experience a truly SHOCKING move. The precious metal has only just ended its 10+ year bear market.

The below chart overlaying gold and platinum speaks for itself. Suffice to say, platinum has plenty of catching up to do. This recent breakout is likely the start of a “catch up” move that will blow your socks off.

Those investors who are well positioned to profit from it could see literal fortunes.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

As I write this there are just 49 left.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.htmlParagraph

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted in Inflation | Comments Off on The Single Greatest Opportunity in Precious Metals is Right Here

How Janet Yellen Will Unleash an Inflationary Storm

Posted on December 17, 2020 by The Phoenix

As I keep stating, the big theme for 2021 will be inflation. And a Biden administration will only accelerate this.

If you doubt me, consider that Biden has picked Janet Yellen as his Treasury Secretary.

Previously, Yellen ran the San Francisco Fed before eventually rising to be Fed Chair under the Obama administration. Throughout her tenure in these positions, she proved to be someone who LOVED using political reasoning to justify printing more money or easing monetary conditions.

In 2014, soon after taking the helm as Fed chair, Yellen gave a speech in which she stated that the Fed would have done a better job predicting and then navigating the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 if it had maintained more “diversity” in its workforce. She subsequently followed this up by creating the Fed’s first task force to improve the gender and ethnic diversity at the Fed.

Why does this matter?

Because NOWHERE in the original Federal Reserve Act of 1913, nor in its 1977 amendment, is there any mention of ANY of this stuff. The Fed’s job as explicitly stated in the legislature is to use interest rates to insure economic growth with minimal inflation. 

THAT’S IT.

In picking Janet Yellen as his Treasury Secretary Joe Biden is effectively giving the purse strings for the Republic to a social justice warrior: someone who believes that social justice issues should guide monetary policy.

In plain terms, all of this means MORE MONEY PRINTING.

Think about it… what precisely could the Treasury do about diversity? The Treasury is responsible for printing money and moving it around. So, if the Treasury decides to take on political projects with the intention of making the economy “fair” all it really means is that the Treasury will be funneling more money into the economy.

Remember, the Treasury created the credit facilities through which the Fed bailed out the entire financial system in March 2020. It was through these credit facilities that the Fed began buying:

1)    Municipal bonds.

2)    Corporate bonds.

3)    Corporate bond ETFs.

4)    Asset backed securities, including assets backed by money market funds, auto loans, student loans, and certificates of deposit.

As such, the Treasury represents the conduit through which the Fed funnels record stimulus into the financial system.

As I’ve stated previously, the Fed spent $3 trillion between 2008 and 2016 fighting the Great Financial Crisis and its aftermath. The Fed spent that same amount in seven months in 2020.

It was only able to do this legally by using the Treasury as a conduit. And we also need to remember, that the Treasury was responsible for the dispensation of the $2 trillion in stimulus for the CARES act in 2020.

And Joe Biden has just picked Janet Yellen to run this organization: a career academic who has never worked in the private sector and who strongly believes that she should use her position to combat political issues such as diversity and climate change. 

Again, all of this means MORE money printing is coming to the U.S.

This is the BIG theme for 2021 no matter what else may come: more money printing, more inflation, and more explosive moves in inflationary assets.

Those investors who are well positioned to profit from it could see literal fortunes.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

As I write this there are just 49 left.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted in Central Bank Insanity, Inflation | Comments Off on How Janet Yellen Will Unleash an Inflationary Storm

This is the Single Most Important Item for Investors Going Forward

Posted on December 16, 2020 by The Phoenix

As we wrap up 2020 and move into 2021, the world faces multiple systemically important issues.

The biggest ones are:

●      Will the COVID-19 vaccine work?

●      Will the U.S. economy recover to where it was pre-COVID-19?

●      Will Donald Trump leave the White House quietly or will the U.S. more into greater political turmoil?

How these issues will be resolved remains to be seen. So we are in very uncertain times in the world.

The ONLY thing we DO know for certain is that EVERY major problem going forward is going to be dealt with by printing money.

And because for the first time in decades MUCH of this money will actually funnel directly into the actual economy, HOT inflation will finally ignite.

The markets have already begun to discount this.

The Fed’s own research has stated that the single best predictor of future inflation is FOOD inflation. 

I realize this sounds odd. After all, publicly, the Fed states that its preferred measures of inflation are the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE).

And yet, the Fed’s OWN RESEARCH has shown that these metrics do a horrible job of predicting future inflation. Not only that, but the Fed has KNOWN this since 2001!

In a little-known paper published back in 2001, Fed researchers wrote the following:

We see that past inflation in food prices has been a better forecaster of future inflation than has the popular core measure…Comparing the past year’s inflation in food prices to the prices of other components that comprise the PCEPI (as in Table 1), we find that the food component still ranks the best among them all…

St Louis Fed

I want you to focus on these two admissions:

1)    The Fed has admitted that its official inflation measures do not accurately predict future inflation. 

2)    The Fed admitted that FOOD prices are a much better predictor of future inflation. In fact, food prices were a better predictor of inflation than the Fed’s PCE, non-durables goods, transportation services, housing, clothing, energy and more.

With that in mind, take a look at the below table taken directly from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ website:

Notice that FOOD prices have shown the fastest rise out of all other components over the last 12 months, clocking in at 3.9%. The BLS itself states that:

1)    All six major grocery store food group indexes are UP over the last year.

2)    The increase in prices range from 2.6 percent (fruits and vegetables) to 6.1 percent (meats, poultry fish, and eggs).

3)    The index for food away from home rose 3.9 percent over the last year, the largest 12-month increase reported for that index in over a DECADE (since May 2009).

If that was not worrisome enough, take a look at what is happening in agricultural commodities (the items that make up food).

What you’re looking at is the 10-year bear market in food prices ENDING. This chart is telling us that higher inflation is coming. And coming soon.

This is the BIG theme for 2021 no matter what else may come: more money printing, more inflation, and more explosive moves in inflationary assets.

Those investors who are well positioned to profit from it could see literal fortunes.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

As I write this there are just 56 left.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted in Central Bank Insanity, Inflation | Comments Off on This is the Single Most Important Item for Investors Going Forward

Policymakers Will Deal With Any and All Future Problems By Printing More Money

Posted on December 15, 2020 by The Phoenix

The US is moving towards more lockdowns.

California has already imposed a second round of lockdowns. And yesterday, Mayor De Blasio warned New York City to prepare for a second round of lockdowns. And Joe Biden’s top medical advisor has suggested a full-scale nationwide lockdown of four to six weeks to “control the pandemic.”

Setting aside the politics of these situations, more lockdowns means more economic downturn, more economic downturn means more Fed interventions, and more Fed interventions means more money printing.

Indeed, if anything has become clear in 2020, it’s that policymakers will deal with any and all problems, both health and economic, by printing money.

This is why the $USD has been dropping like a stone since March, erasing two year’s worth of gains in the span of nine months.

It’s also why inflation is now ripping through the financial system. Take a look at what copper, steel and gold are doing and you’ll see assets exploding out of multi-year downtrends.

This is the BIG theme for 2021 no matter what else may come: more money printing, more inflation, and more explosive moves in inflationary assets.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

As I write this there are just 79 left.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted in Central Bank Insanity | Comments Off on Policymakers Will Deal With Any and All Future Problems By Printing More Money

This is Where the BIG Money Will Be Made in 2021

Posted on December 15, 2020 by The Phoenix

The US is moving towards more lockdowns.

California has already imposed a second round of lockdowns. And yesterday, Mayor De Blasio warned New York City to prepare for a second round of lockdowns. And Joe Biden’s top medical advisor has suggested a full-scale nationwide lockdown of four to six weeks to “control the pandemic.”

Setting aside the politics of these situations, more lockdowns means more economic downturn, more economic downturn means more Fed interventions, and more Fed interventions means more money printing.

Indeed, if anything has become clear in 2020, it’s that policymakers will deal with any and all problems, both health and economic, by printing money.

This is why the $USD has been dropping like a stone since March, erasing two year’s worth of gains in the span of nine months.

It’s also why inflation is now ripping through the financial system. Take a look at what copper, steel and gold are doing and you’ll see assets exploding out of multi-year downtrends.

This is the BIG theme for 2021 no matter what else may come: more money printing, more inflation, and more explosive moves in inflationary assets.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

As I write this there are just 79 left.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted in Central Bank Insanity | Comments Off on This is Where the BIG Money Will Be Made in 2021