Last week the S&P 500 broke below its bull market trendline.
This is definitely cause for concern. Since mid-May 2025, this trendline has served as critical support for stocks. So, the fact that the market actually broke this line (even temporarily) is a warning sign that things are deteriorating for this bull market.
Indeed, while the S&P 500 managed to eke out several new all-time highs in October, “under the hood” breadth has gone nowhere for over two months. This signals that this bull market is being driven by fewer and fewer companies.
Put simply, stocks are flashing multiple warning signs that the bull market is in serious danger.
In this context, the #1 question for investors is whether the bull market is about to end and it’s time to “sell the farm”… or if this is another opportunity to “buy the dip.”
To answer this, I rely on a proprietary indicator that has triggered before every major meltdown in the last 50 years. This signal caught the 1987 crash, the Tech Crash, the Great Financial Crisis and more.
We detail this trigger, how it works, and what it’s saying about the markets today in How to Predict a Crash.
Normally we’d sell this report for $499, but in light of its recent warning, we’re making 99 copies available to the investing public.
1) The bull run begun in April is more than overdue for a correction.
2) The Fed has signaled that it might not cut rates again in December.
Regarding #1, the bull run begun in early April has been ludicrous in its strength. It is NOT normal for stocks to go straight up. The mere fact the S&P 500 had gone 130 sessions without touching its 50-DMA moving average indicated that stocks were due for a significant correction.
Moreover, both high yield credit and breadth had signaled that the S&P 500 had more downside to go. This downdraft was signaled well in advance to those who were paying attention.
Which brings us to #2.
Multiple Fed officials have signaled that they are not on board with another rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting (December 9th-10th). This, combined with stocks being overbought and overextended above key moving averages, has resulted in the market struggling to rally.
Stocks are on the ledge of a cliff. What happens next is critical!
In this context, the #1 question for investors is whether the bull market has ended and it’s time to “sell the farm.”
To answer this, I rely on a proprietary indicator that has triggered before every major meltdown in the last 50 years. This signal caught the 1987 crash, the Tech Crash, the Great Financial Crisis and more.
We detail this trigger, how it works, and what it’s saying about the markets today in How to Predict a Crash.
Normally we’d sell this report for $499, but in light of its recent warning, we’re making 99 copies available to the investing public.
Because the government/ Fed are going to print a truly obscene amount of money as soon as the economy rolls over.
Consider that Trump administration is current running “recession-level” fiscal deficits… at a time when the economy is still growing. Indeed, the only periods in history in which the U.S. ran deficits that were larger as a percentage of GDP was during the pandemic when the economy was in a free-fall and during World War II.
If this is the amount of spending the government is performing now (a deficit of $1.8 trillion), while the economy is growing… imagine what will happen when the economy finally contracts? $3 trillion deficits? $5 trillion deficits?
You get my point.
The only way the U.S. could get away with this much debt issuance would be if the Fed printed trillions of dollars and used it to buy Treasuries. When that happens (and it’s “when” not “if”), gold will go absolutely parabolic.
Below is a chart showing the ratio of gold to the S&P 500. When gold outperforms stocks, this line rises. When gold underperforms stocks, this line falls. Anyone who has any clue how to read a chart will tell you that this chart is forecasting gold EXPLODING higher relative to stocks.
This means gold going to $7,000 per ounce or even $10,000 per ounce.
Now imagine what will happen to precious metals miners when this happens and you’ll see that there is the potential for truly life-changing returns.
The time to prepare for this is NOW before it happens.
On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to potentially make a fortune if and when a gold revaluation occurs.
The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains my top precious metals plays, including their names, their symbols, and the resources they own. These are HIGH OCTANE positions that are already up 40%, 120%, 120%, 140% and an incredible 450% this year alone!
Normally I’d charge $499 for this report as a standalone item, but we are making just 100 copies available to the public.
The #1 story for the financial system today is the fact that gold is soaring again.
The current bull run in gold started in early 2024 when the precious metal broke out of a multi-year consolidation pattern to the upside.
It’s important to note that this was a global phenomenon, with gold going vertical against the $USD, the Euro, Japan’s Yen, and the Swiss France at that time.
What happened in early 2024?
Collectively, global central banks signaled that they were introducing another round of monetary easing. And since the financial system had never fully recovered from the obscene amount of money printing that had taken place during the pandemic (40% of all the money ever printed in the U.S. was printed during the pandemic), this was a signal that central banks were opting to “inflate away” the world’s debts by devaluing their currencies via artificially low interest rates and money printing.
Put simply, 2024 was the year that the financial system began a tectonic shift from paper/fiat assets to hard assets.
Since that time, gold, priced in U.S. dollars, has gone parabolic, rising from $2,000 per ounce to over $4,400 per ounce. Obviously, in investing, nothing goes straight up or straight down. And after a run like this, gold was due for a breather.
What’s striking however, is how short this breather is proving to be. As David Cervantes has noted, gold’s average correction has lasted three months since the secular bull market began in 2006.
Not this time it appears…
Gold exploded higher yesterday, rallying into overhead resistance at $4,100 per ounce. If the precious metal can break above that level with conviction, it is a MAJOR signal that THE LOWS are in, and gold is going to new highs.
And while gold will likely do very well going forward, the biggest opportunities will occur in precious metals miners. I’m talking about triple if not QUADRUPLE digit gains.
On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to potentially make a fortune if and when a gold revaluation occurs.
The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains my top precious metals plays, including their names, their symbols, and the resources they own. These are HIGH OCTANE positions that are already up 40%, 120%, 120%, 140% and an incredible 450% this year alone!
Normally I’d charge $499 for this report as a standalone item, but we are making just 100 copies available to the public.
Stocks are up sharply this morning news that on deal has been struck to reopen the U.S. government. This, combined with the China trade deal and the Trump administration’s proposal to flood the economy with free money (more on this shortly) has opened the door to an early “Santa rally” to 7,000 on the S&P 500.
This is the good news. The bad news is that inflation is surging higher again.
The Trump administration has bet the republic on the notion that the U.S. can somehow grow its way out of its debt issues. This is the proverbial “run it hot” economic framework in which you pursue growth by any means even if it means risking an inflationary storm.
To this end, the Trump administration is proposing everything it can think of from:
Inflating a stock market bubble.
Inflating a housing bubble, while introducing policies to try to get more buyers in the market (see the proposed 50-year mortgage plan the Trump administration unveiled over the weekend).
Running massive fiscal spending programs that are equal to if not larger than those run by the Biden administration.
Stimulus checks: including $1,000 to be invested in stocks on behalf of every new child born in the U.S., potentially $5,000 in stimulus checks to every household as a “DOGE Dividend,” and $2,000 in stimulus checks for every American courtesy of tariff revenues, etc.
Put simply, the Trump administration is flooding the financial system with money whether it be in the form of fiscal spending, stimulus checks/ helicopter money, or monetary easing via the Fed.
All of this is highly inflationary. And it is creating what I call the Great Global Melt-Up: a process through which risk assets EXPLODE higher in a massive bubble. The S&P 500 has already hit 28 all-time highs this year. Gold has nearly doubled in value from $2,600 per ounce to $4,400 per ounce. And $BTC and other risk assets have exploded higher too.
The flip side of this is that the $USD has collapsed and is on the ledge of a cliff. After all, inflation means a weak-$USD. Oh, and by the way, remember that the Fed hasn’t even started printing money yet!
Is this dangerous? Yes. Will it end horribly? Yes. But as investors, our job is to make money from this… because when this bubble bursts (as all bubbles do), the coming crisis will make 2008 look like a picnic.
So, take advantage of this while it lasts. Inflation is dangerous… but it also presents the opportunity for life-changing gains with the right investments.
On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to potentially make a fortune if and when a gold revaluation occurs.
The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains my top precious metals plays, including their names, their symbols, and the resources they own. These are HIGH OCTANE positions that are already up 40%, 120%, 120%, 140% and an incredible 450% this year alone!
Normally I’d charge $499 for this report as a standalone item, but we are making just 100 copies available to the public.
The stock market sell off continues. And it’s to be expected.
The S&P 500 has now gone 131 sessions without touching its 50-DMA. This is the longest streak since 2007 (almost 20 years). Based on this alone, the odds were quite high that the S&P 500 would correct to touch its 50-DMA.
However, this is nothing to panic about. High yield credit, which typically leads the S&P 500, is signaling that most of the decline is over. Stocks might have another 1%-2% downside to go, but they should find their footing relatively soon.
What happens then is critical: the #1 question for investors is if this is going to be a garden variety correction or if it’s the start of another bear market/ crisis.
To answer this, I rely on a proprietary indicator that has triggered before every major meltdown in the last 50 years. This signal caught the 1987 crash, the Tech Crash, the Great Financial Crisis and more.
We detail this trigger, how it works, and what it’s saying about the markets today in How to Predict a Crash.
Normally we’d sell this report for $499, but in light of its recent warning, we’re making 99 copies available to the investing public.
This is no surprise and if your strategist hasn’t been warning of a correction, you need to get a new strategist.
In investing, nothing goes straight up or straight down. And since April, stocks have been on a historic run. All told the S&P 500 has gone over 120 sessions without touching its 50-day simple moving average (DMA). This is the longest streak since 2011 and is the 3rd longest since 2000.
This STRONGLY suggested stocks were due for a pullback to the 50-DMA. For this reason (and numerous others revealed to private clients two weeks ago), I’ve been warning our clients NOT to aggressively buy stocks. Instead, we’ve been in “watch and wait” mode as we prepared for the coming correction.
The wait is over.
The S&P 500 is a sea of red this morning. And by the look of things there is plenty of more downside to come. High yield credit, which usually leads stocks both the upside and the down is signaling that the S&P 500 has a date with the 6600s.
Breadth, which also usually leads the S&P 500 is signaling a drop to the 6,700s.
Both of these are right in the ballpark of the 50-DMA for the S&P 500. Taken together, they strongly suggest we’re going to see a pullback to the 50-DMA. The big question for investors is if this is going to be a garden variety correction or if it’s the start of another bear market/ crisis.
To answer this, I rely on a proprietary indicator that has triggered before every major meltdown in the last 50 years. This signal caught the 1987 crash, the Tech Crash, the Great Financial Crisis and more.
We detail this trigger, how it works, and what it’s saying about the markets today in How to Predict a Crash.
Normally we’d sell this report for $499, but in light of its recent warning, we’re making 99 copies available to the investing public.
The next round of money printing is about to begin.
It’s not a question of “if,” but a question of “when.”
On the surface, everything seems hunky dory in the financial system. Stocks are at all-time highs. Bonds are stable. And the $USD appears to be finding its footing after losing 11% during the first half of the year.
However, “beneath the surface” things are beginning to unravel.
Since 2023, the Fed has drained some $2.38 trillion in reserves from the financial system via its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program. As a result of this and other recent developments, reserves (cash available for overnight/short-term lending) in the financial system have fallen to their lowest levels in FIVE years ($3 trillion).
That sounds like a lot of money, but it’s in fact quite low for what banks require to keep things running smoothly in the financial system. As a result of this, banks/ financial firms are turning to the Fed as a kind of “lender of last resort” for short-term liquidity/ financing needs. And not by a little: in the last two weeks, demands for overnight funding from the Fed have skyrocketed from nothing to over $50 billion.
I realize this sounds like a bunch of financial jargon, so let me put it this way… the issues that led to the 2018 market collapse are beginning to resurface again. At that time, stocks nose-dived 20% in the span of a few weeks before the Fed was forced to panic and reverse course.
So, while things look great in the financial system as far as stocks are concerned. The reality is that if the Fed doesn’t act quickly things could get UGLY fast.
In light of this, I fully believe the Fed will be forced to launch a new Quantitative Easing (QE) program in the next six months.
I’m not the only one.
Lorie Logan is the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. As such she is one of 12 Fed Presidents. This is an extremely high-level insider at the Fed. And she just said the following…
…if the recent rise in rates on overnight repurchase agreements for Treasuries proves not to be temporary, the Fed will need to restart asset purchases [QE] to keep bank reserves ample…
Source: MSN
So again, as I stated at the start of this article… The next round of money printing is about to begin. It’s not a question of “if,” but a question of “when.” And between this and the Trump administration’s potential revaluing gold at $10,000 or even $20,000 per ounce, the potential for life-changing gains is higher than at any time in the last three years.
Imagine what would happen to precious metals miners or other gold plays if gold was revalued from $4,000 per ounce to $10,000 or even $20,000 per ounce while the Fed launches its next major money printing program and you’ll see what I mean.
On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to potentially make a fortune if and when a gold revaluation occurs.
The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains my top precious metals plays, including their names, their symbols, and the resources they own. These are HIGH OCTANE positions that are already up 40%, 120%, 120%, 140% and an incredible 450% this year alone!
Normally I’d charge $499 for this report as a standalone item, but we are making just 100 copies available to the public.
By quick way of review, the basic premise we outlined was as follows…
The Fed currently holds certificates for some 261 million ounces of gold.
Since 1973, these holdings have been valued at just $42.22 per ounce.
If the Treasury were to revalue this gold at the market rate, it would immediately add ~$700 billion to $1trillion in new capital to the asset side of the U.S.’s balance sheet.
The legislation permitting this is already in Congress via the $BTC Act of 2025. See below:
Bear in mind, we’re just talking about the U.S. revaluing its gold holdings to the market rate. Based on historical precedent, the U.S. could choose to revalue gold to a MUCH higher price than that: $10,000 per ounce or even $20,000 per ounce.
This is right along the lines of what Franklin Delano Roosevelt did with the Gold Reserve Act of 1934. At that time, FDR revalued gold from $20.67 to $35 per oz, which represents a revaluation 69% higher. Of course, the U.S.’s debt situation was nowhere its current levels (the Debt to GDP ratio was a mere 40% compared to 120% today).
This is why I believe if the U.S. were to revalue gold in 2026, it would do so to a MUCH higher price. As I noted in my last article, a revaluation of gold to $20,000 per ounce would immediately give the U.S. an additional $5 TRILLION in capital.
At that price, the U.S. could retire ~18% of its debt outstanding, which in turn would reduce its interest payments and improve its fiscal position.
It would also provide an implicit link between the $USD and gold, which would cement the $USD as the world’s reserve currency… defeating China’s current strategic goal of establishing a gold-backed Yuan to replace the $USD.
Conspiracy theory? The language is already laid out in the $BTC Act. And Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has made multiple statements about “monetizing the asset side” of the U.S.’s balance sheet.
I realize this sounds crazy… but if you had told someone a year ago that the U.S. would…
Create a sovereign wealth fund.
Create a Strategic $BTC Reserve
Start buying stakes in publicly traded companies (MP, INTC, etc.).
…those policies would have sounded crazy then too. And that’s precisely what has happened!
Finally, we have to consider that this kind of strategy is something the President himself has done throughout his career in commercial real estate. Do you really think the self-proclaimed “King of Cheap” debt… the man who has a history of revaluing the assets he owns to restructure/ procure lower debt rates, hasn’t thought of this?
Those investors who are correctly positioned for this could generate life-changing returns. Imagine what would happen to precious metals miners or other gold plays if gold was revalued from $4,000 per ounce to $10,000 or even $20,000 per ounce and you’ll see what I mean.
On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to potentially make a fortune if and when a gold revaluation occurs.
The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains my top precious metals plays, including their names, their symbols, and the resources they own. These are HIGH OCTANE positions that are already up 40%, 120%, 120%, 140% and an incredible 450% this year alone!
Normally I’d charge $499 for this report as a standalone item, but we are making just 100 copies available to the public.
The Trump administration is going to revalue gold some time in 2026.
This is not conspiracy theory; the actual legislation is already in Congress as part of the Bitcoin Act. Specifically, Section 9 of the Act explicitly outlines that the Treasury is going to revalue the Fed’s gold holdings (currently valued at $11 billion at a price of $42.22 per ounce) to market rates ~$4,000 per ounce.
See for yourself.
Note that the “official reason” for this revaluation is to help finance the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. However, the fact remains: revaluing the Fed’s gold holdings opens the door to a broader gold revaluation including full audits of all gold reserves owned by the government and other major entities.
Why would the government want to do this?
Because it sets the stage for a “financial system reset” that will involve gold in some way.
As I’ve noted time and again, there is too much debt in the financial system. A gold revaluation could “reset” the U.S.’s financial situation by boosting the asset side of Uncle Sam’s balance sheet by as much as $5 trillion depending on what price gold is revalued to. And if you think this is impossible, recall that the U.S. already did this once under former President Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1934 (the Gold Reserve Act revalued gold from $20.67 to $35 per oz).
This in turn would strengthen the $USD’s standing as global reserve currency as it establish the U.S. as the first sovereign “gold-backed” balance sheet in 50 years (the U.S. completely severed any ties to the Gold Standard in 1971).
Again, none of this is conspiracy theory… the legislation that opens the door to all of this is literally already in Congress. And don’t forget that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has publicly made statements about “monetizing the asset side of the balance sheet” i.e. boosting the U.S.’s asset holdings by revaluing what it already owns.
Those investors who are correctly positioned for this could generate life-changing returns. Imagine what would happen to precious metals miners or other gold plays if gold was revalued from $4,000 per ounce to $10,000 or even $20,000 per ounce and you’ll see what I mean.
On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to potentially make a fortune if and when a gold revaluation occurs.
The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains my top precious metals plays, including their names, their symbols, and the resources they own. These are HIGH OCTANE positions that are already up 40%, 120%, 120%, 140% and an incredible 450% this year alone!
Normally I’d charge $499 for this report as a standalone item, but we are making just 100 copies available to the public.
The single best predictor of future inflation is SCREAMING that another inflationary storm is coming.
The Fed focuses on two inflation measures: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE).
There are two MAJOR problems with this:
Both measures of inflation have numerous gimmicks designed to UNDER-state the true rate of inflation.
Both measures are ALSO terrible predictors of future inflation.
What’s astonishing is that the Fed is aware of both of these facts.
You see, back in 2001, the Fed had several researchers dive into the subject of inflation. Their goal was the analyze whether the Fed’s preferred measures of inflation (CPI and PCE) were decent predictors of future inflation. The Fed also investigated a whole slew of other inflation measures for comparison purposes.
The results?
The Fed researchers discovered that both CPI and PCE were TERRIBLE predictors of future inflation. And in fact, the single best predictor of future inflation was food inflation.
See for yourself:
We see that past inflation in food prices has been a better forecaster of future inflation than has the popular core measure [CPI and PCE]…Comparing the past year’s inflation in food prices to the prices of other components that comprise the PCEPI (as in Table 1), we find that the food component still ranks the best among them all…
Source: St Louis Fed (emphasis added).
I bring all of this up, because food inflation is now ripping higher.
September’s CPI revealed that “food at home” prices rose 0.3% month over month. This comes to an annualized rate of ~4%... which is WAY over the Fed’s inflation target of 2%.
On top of this, both “meats, poultry, fish, and eggs” and “non-alcoholic beverages” are clocking in at over 5% year over year!
If you’re looking for a reason why gold has erupted higher this year… and why the $USD has been dropping like a stone, this is it: the financial system is fully aware that another inflationary storm is coming in 2026!
Smart investors are preparing for this NOW, before it hits.
On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.
The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains my top inflation hedges, including their names, their symbols, and the resources they own. These are HIGH OCTANE positions that are already up 40%, 120%, 120%, 140% and an incredible 450% this year alone!
Normally I’d charge $499 for this report as a standalone item, but we are making just 100 copies available to the public.
Stocks hit new all-time highs last week on news that the Trump administration has the basic outline of a trade deal with China.
There is NOTHING bearish about this chart.
Indeed, the move has been confirmed by High Yield Credit, which is much more sensitive to changes in risk/ the macro environment than stocks. The High Yield Credit ETF (HYG) has also hit new all-time highs indicating little to no duress in the financial system.
What is happening here? Weren’t stocks on the cusp of a serious correction with numerous subprime lending firms blowing up just a few weeks ago?
What’s going on is the financial system is in what I call the Great Global Melt Up: a process through which central banks devalue their currencies via money printing… forcing investors to move capital into risk assets like stocks, precious metals and the like.
The reality is this is the ONLY option central banks have to deal with the world’s egregious levels of debt. There is no way that countries like the U.S., France or others can grow their way out of their debt loads. And defaulting on their debt would trigger a crisis that would make 2008 look like a picnic.
Thus, the only path forward, as far as policymakers are concerned, is to devalue their currencies in an attempt to “inflate away” their debts. To that end, central banks have already cut rates 312 times in the last 24 months.
That is not a typo: central banks are averaging 13 rate cuts per month as they race to make money/ credit cheaper.
This is why stocks are bubbling up. It’s why gold has hit new all-time highs, erupting from $2,600 per ounce at the start of the year to over $4,000 per ounce today. And it’s why investors NEED to prepare for what’s coming to insure they maintain their wealth.
Take a look at the $USD and you’ll see what I mean… the greenback is on the verge of taking out a 15-year trendline. When this breaks, and it will, anyone who is storing their wealth in savings/ cash will get taken to the cleaners.
And while stocks will likely do well in this environment, precious metals, specifically precious metals miners will produce truly life changing gains.
The S&P 500 is up 10% thus far in 2025. But the ENTIRE gold mining complex is up over TEN TIMES that at 110%.
On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.
The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains my top five precious metals plays, including their names, their symbols, and the resources they own. These are HIGH OCTANE positions that are already up 40%, 120%, 120%, 140% and an incredible 450% this year alone!
Normally I’d charge $499 for this report as a standalone item, but we are making just 100 copies available to the public.
Not by a long shot. If anything, this latest pullback is just a healthy correction during a once in a lifetime bull run.
The reality is that gold is a very small asset class. Collectively the market cap of the entire gold mining sector is just $600 billion. To put that into perspective, it’s roughly 1% the size of the stock market.
As a result of its small size, when gold enters a major bull market, prices can go much farther than most investors realize. All you need is 1% of the capital allocated in stocks to shift to gold and you’re looking at a 100% increase in the entire mining sector.
And investors are allocating a heck of a lot more capital to gold than 1% of their stock portfolios. Indeed, multiple Wall Street firms are now suggesting that investors shift from a 60/40 stocks to bonds allocation to a 60/20/20 stocks, bonds, precious metals allocation.
Wall Street is not the group moving large pools of capital into gold. Central banks are buying over 1,000 tons of gold per year. As a result of this, for the first time since the mid-1990s, central banks own more gold than U.S. Treasuries as a percentage of their balance sheets.
Put simply, the largest pools of capital are now moving into one of the tiniest asset classes in the financial system. In this context, the bull market is nowhere near over.
Indeed, this latest pullback has simply seen gold drop to test its 21-day exponential moving average (EMA). This is a perfectly normal development in the context of a bull market… especially when you consider just how overextended gold had become from its primary trend.
So how high can gold go before this bull market ends?
During the last major gold bull market in the 1970s, gold rose nearly 2000% from the start in 1970 to its peak in 1980.
Now consider that since 2008, when the Fed first started printing money to paper over the debts in the financial system, gold is up a mere 375%. I’m not saying gold will repeat its gains of 2,000% from the 1970s… but the point stands that we’re likely in the first few innings of this new bull market.
So if you missed this first run in gold, do NOT despair… the largest, most life-changing gains are likely yet to come!
On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.
The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains my top five precious metals plays, including their names, their symbols, and the resources they own. These are HIGH OCTANE positions that are already up 40%, 120%, 120%, 140% and an incredible 450% this year alone
Normally I’d charge $499 for this report as a standalone item, but we are making just 100 copies available to the public.
Precious metals are taking a breather after a historic run.
In investing, nothing goes straight up or straight down. And gold and silver had both become egregiously overbought coming into last week. As Subu Trades notes, gold had rallied for 9 straight weeks and was a full 28% above its 200-day simple moving average. Historically, his analysis shows clearly that gold usually experiences a large pullback shortly after a run of this magnitude.
And that was precisely what happened. Gold fell ~6% yesterday in its largest single day drop. Gold miners fell even further, with the Gold Miners ETF (GDX) dropping 15%!
In light of this, many investors are asking if the historic bull market in gold is over.
The answer to that question is a resounding “NO!”
The reality is that gold is experiencing a tectonic shift in which EVERY major investment group is beginning to buy the precious metal.
Individuals are literally lining up around the world to buy gold.
Financial institutions are urging their institutional clients to get exposure to the precious metal with some even going so far as to suggest changing the 60/40 stocks to bonds allocation that has been the standard for the last 50 years to a 60/20/20 allocation of stocks, bonds and precious metals.
Even central banks have become net buyers of gold for the first time in decades. Collectively, they’ve bought 1,000 tons of the precious metal every year since 2020!
Put simply, gold is experiencing an unprecedented amount of buying power for the first time in decades. And this is not about to change either: investors worldwide have realized that central banks are about to unleash another inflationary storm and are moving their capital to prepare for what’s coming.
You should do the same.
On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.
The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains my top five precious metals plays, including their names, their symbols, and the resources they own. These are HIGH OCTANE positions that are already up 40%, 120%, 120%, 140% and an incredible 450% this year alone
Normally I’d charge $499 for this report as a standalone item, but we are making just 100 copies available to the public.
The Great Global Melt Up is taking a breather… but do NOT mistake this breather/ correction for the end.
Globally, the world is awash is too much debt. The US has a Debt to GDP ratio of 120%. Europe is ~100%, though numerous large countries (France, Italy, Spain) are well over that. Japan has a Debt to GDP of 200%. And even China has a Debt to GDP ratio of 120% when you include local government debt that is typically kept off the national balance sheet calculations.
Put simply, for 50+ years, ever since the world ended the Gold Standard, governments have engaged in a massive debt binge. And there is no way they can ever pay this back.
Thus, the only option, as far as policymakers are concerned, is to “print” their way out of this situation by devaluing their currencies. This is the “inflate it away” strategy for dealing with a debt crisis: by devaluing your currency you ensure that every future payment of the debt is worth less in real terms.
This process has already begun.
Globally central banks have already cut rates 123 rate times. Every major central bank (the Fed, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank) is now easing monetary conditions. And it’s only a matter of time before they introduce another round of money printing/ Quantitative Easing.
This has created what I call the Great Global Melt Up: a situation in which risk assets (stocks, real estate, gold, etc.) erupt higher as investors are forced to move their capital out of cash to escape the currency devaluation.
This process is nowhere near over. And you NEED to take advantage of it to make as much money as possible before it ends.
Why?
Because when this bubble bursts, as all bubbles do, it’s going to trigger a crisis that will make 2008 look like a picnic. So the goal for investors is to ride this bubble for as long as possible, and then get out before the whole mess comes crashing down.
On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning THREE investments poised to produce extraordinary gains during the Great Global Melt Up. As I write this, all three of them are roaring to new all-time highs.
Normally I’d charge $499 for this report as a standalone item, but based on what is happening in the markets today we are making just 100 FREE copies available to the public.
Stocks remain blissfully unaware of the problems in the debt/ credit markets.
While stocks get most of the attention from the media due to their greater volatility (greater volatility means a greater likelihood of producing significant gains quickly), the reality is that stocks are in fact the junior-most asset class in terms of capital structure.
What I mean by this is that if a company were to go bankrupt, stockholders would be THE last people to get paid after all the debt and creditors. As a result of this, the credit markets, NOT the stock markets are usually the first markets to react to changes in the economy.
Put simply: credit investors, particularly high yield credit investors (investors in “junk bonds”) are usually much more sophisticated and sensitive to potential risks because if things go wrong there is a high likelihood that they lose a LOT of money.
I mention this because the high yield credit ETF (HYG) has taken out its bull market trendline for the first time since the April lows. Even worse, HYG has failed to reclaim this line despite multiple interventions by the Trump administration.
This is a MAJOR warning that something BAD is brewing in the credit markets. We get confirmation of this from the Senior Loans (another credit instrument). Here again, the index has broken below both its bull market trendline. It’s also broken its 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) as well as its 21-EMA. This is a major signal that momentum has broken down and something BAD is coming.
Stocks remain in la la land about these risks. But they likely won’t for much longer. We’re already beginning to see this situation spread to major financial firms. Jeffries Financial Group (JEF) is one of the first firms to reveal it has exposure to these issues. JEF has over $60 billion in assets and its shares are currently imploding.
Put simply, something VERY bad is brewing in the banking system. And the big question for investors is whether these issues will trigger a stock market crash.
To answer this, I rely on a proprietary indicator that has triggered before every major meltdown in the last 50 years. This signal caught the 1987 crash, the Tech Crash, the Great Financial Crisis and more.
We detail this trigger, how it works, and what it’s saying about the markets today in How to Predict a Crash.
Normally we’d sell this report for $499, but in light of its recent warning, we’re making 99 copies available to the investing public.
Something BAD is brewing in the regional banks. And before we shrug it off, we need to consider that regional banks:
Have over $5 TRILLION in U.S. deposits.
Account for 50% of all industrial/ commercial loans in the US.
Originate 80% of all mortgages.
Account for 45% of all personal loans.
Put simply, this is NOT a small, insignificant industry. Yes, the Big Banks (Wells, JP Morgan, Bank of America) still have an inordinate amount of clout/ power in the industry… but regional banks are systemically important and have a profound impact on the real economy.
And they also appear to be up to their eyeballs in bad loans.
The commercial real estate market is imploding in the U.S. As I write this, vacancy rates for office property have hit record highs of nearly 20%. And as of August 2025, some 7% of ALL commercial real estate loans (not just office loans) are delinquent. And that rate has gone up for six months straight.
Regional banks are on the hook for a lot of this.
According to HedgieMarkets, commercial real estate loans comprise 44% of regional bank portfolios (compared to just 13% for the big banks). And apparently there is considerable fraud in this space. Two large regional banks Zions and Western Alliance have revealed tens of billions of dollars in loan provisions and write-offs due to fraud from a single failed auto-parts manufacturer, First Brands Group.
This is why the Regional Bank ETF (KRE) is crashing: no one knows how big the problem (bad loans/ fraud) really is in the industry. Remember, we’re only talking about a handful of companies (First Brands Group, subprime auto-lender Tricolor, etc.) accounting for tens of billions of dollars in bad loans/ fraud.
The larger question is if this issue will metastasize into a crisis. Remember, in 2023, the regional banking system almost collapsed, resulting in the S&P 500 losing 10% in a matter of weeks. This doesn’t seem too dramatic until you consider that A) both the Treasury and the Fed had to get involved to stop the collapse and B) the issues that triggered that crisis were never resolved… they were just “papered over.”
This is why JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon recently commented that “when you see one cockroach, there are probably more”... and that “Everyone should be forewarned” by what is happening in regional banks today.
This is also why shares in banks like Jeffries are down over 30% since mid-September.
And it’s why investors need to be asking themselves “is another credit event just around the corner?”
To answer this, I rely on a proprietary indicator that has triggered before every major meltdown in the last 50 years. This signal caught the 1987 crash, the Tech Crash, the Great Financial Crisis and more.
We detail this trigger, how it works, and what it’s saying about the markets today in How to Predict a Crash.
Normally we’d sell this report for $499, but in light of its recent warning, we’re making 99 copies available to the investing public.
Is the U.S. about to experience another banking crisis?
Shares in banks, and particularly regional banks, imploded yesterday. At one point the regional bank index (KRE) was down 7%.
The issues pertain to two recent bankruptcies in the subprime auto-lending and auto parts manufacturing industries: TriColor Holdings and FirstBrands.
About a month ago, a large subprime auto lender, TriColor Holdings, filed for bankruptcy. At the time of bankruptcy, the firm had assets and liabilities somewhere between $1 billion and $10 billion. Obviously, this was not a massive company, but the details of the situation are concerning.
Subprime auto lending is some of the riskiest lending in the world. In its simplest rendering, subprime auto lending consists of lending high-interest loans to low-income and undocumented borrowers. The lender then usually packages up the loans into securities, and sells them in a secondary market to hedge funds/ banks/ etc.
By packaging these loans, firms are able to claim they are less risky, allowing them to sell them to banks and other institutional investors who wouldn’t be able to own them otherwise.
If this sounds familiar to you, it’s essentially the same scheme that created and then imploded the housing bubble in 2003-2007. And once again, it appears that multiple major financial institutions were in on the scheme.
As I’m writing this, JP Morgan, Fifth Third Bank and Barclays have declared they have exposure in the hundreds of millions of dollars to TriColor. Obviously, these are small losses given the size of these institutions (Fifth Third is the smallest bank and has assets and liabilities in the hundreds of billions of dollars).
However, the issue of fraud is triggering some concerns.
Some 29,000 of the loans TriColor made involved vehicles that already had loans outstanding. And some 40% of the loans outstanding shared similar characteristics suggesting there might have been multiple loans made using the same vehicle as collateral.
Put simply, it appears TriColor was cooking the books to generate as many loans as possible, e.g. lending out two or even three loans for the same car, which means the car can’t possibly serve as correct collateral on the debt.
This is rattling the credit markets. True, the subprime auto lending market is only $20 billion in size (subprime mortgages are over $800 BILLION in size), but the situation is raising concerns that loose lending standards and derivatives might once again be an issue for the credit markets.
This situation is being made worse by the bankruptcy of First Brands, an auto parts manufacturer that also collapsed in late September. Here again, there are allegations of cooking the books, though the losses are larger (initial estimates put the fallout closer to $10 billion), and the fallout is worse.
Jeffries Financial Group (JEF) has claimed that its exposure to FirstBrands is in the ballpark of $750 million via one of its investment funds. However, JEF shares are down 30% in roughly one month, suggesting things are in fact worse behind the scenes.
Indeed, yesterday was a bloodbath in the banking sector with individual regional banks (Zion Bancorp, Western Bank Alliance, etc.) down 12%. Heck even the big banks (Wells Fargo, JP Morgan) plunged over 2% on the day.
The issue is spreading throughout the credit markets. The high yield credit ETF (HYG) has taken out its bull market trendline. Even worse, it’s been rejected after a bounce, indicating that what used to be support is now resistance.
Put simply, something VERY bad is brewing in the banking system. And the big question for investors is whether these issues will trigger a stock market crash.
To answer this, I rely on a proprietary indicator that has triggered before every major meltdown in the last 50 years. This signal caught the 1987 crash, the Tech Crash, the Great Financial Crisis and more.
We detail this trigger, how it works, and what it’s saying about the markets today in How to Predict a Crash.
Normally we’d sell this report for $499, but in light of its recent warning, we’re making 99 copies available to the investing public.
The Trump administration is currently negotiating its single most important trade deal with China. The President and his team have been able to sign deals with a number of other countries already, but trade between China and the U.S. is THE issue as far as global trade is concerned. Exports/imports between the two nations are ~$700 billion per year.
The problem with all of this is that the Trade War has revealed the Trump administration’s “Achilles heel” to China… namely that the President Trump cannot stomach a stock market decline.
Let’s wind the clocks back to April.
The Trump administration announced global tariffs against every major trade partner (including China) on April 2nd. This triggered a stock market meltdown with the S&P 500 dropping 18% in a matter of weeks, erasing $11 trillion in capital.
The collapse was so dramatic that it actually resulted in a pullback in consumer spending with numerous companies including Southwest Airlines, Chipotle, PepsiCo and even Walmart noting that consumer spending was falling off a cliff in ways not seen since the pandemic!
THIS, not trade-related issues, was what forced the President to introduce his “90 day pause” to the Trade War on April 9th. By doing this, the President stopped the bloodbath, leading stocks to bottom and begin rallying shortly thereafter.
Since that time, the President has responded to every stock market pullback by announcing some “breakthrough” or “great deal” in trade to get stocks ripping higher again. He’s literally broadcast his greatest weakness to China.
This has led to what investors call the “Taco Trade” or “Trump Always Chickens Out” meme. The most recent example of this occurred just last week when the President threatened China with additional tariffs of 100% on Friday, only to turn around by Monday and suggest that he will still meet with China’s President Xi and that he’s hopeful a deal can be made.
What changed between Friday and Monday?
The S&P 500 fell almost 3% on Friday and the futures session looking like a bloodbath over the weekend.
So again, the Trade War has revealed the Trump administration’s “Achilles heel” to China. The President CANNOT handle a stock market decline. And with the China/ US Trade Deal deadline just a few weeks away on November 1st what are the odds that China is going to exploit this weakness to get the best possible deal for itself?
Which means…
The door is open to a serious stock market decline in the next few weeks. Stocks have already proven susceptible to a bloodbath based on a Trump social media post… how will they react if China announces something MAJOR related to a standoff as far as trade is concerned?
Could this trigger a stock market crash?
To answer this, I rely on a proprietary indicator that has triggered before every major meltdown in the last 50 years. This signal caught the 1987 crash, the Tech Crash, the Great Financial Crisis and more.
We detail this trigger, how it works, and what it’s saying about the markets today in How to Predict a Crash.
Normally we’d sell this report for $499, but in light of its recent warning, we’re making 99 copies available to the investing public.
The overall stock market has been extraordinarily strong since the April lows. And for the most part, the rally has been broad-based involving most sectors in the S&P 500.
You can see this clearly in the below chart in which overall breadth rose steadily from April through September. This was a clear signal that this was a raging bull market in which most stocks were rallying. Put another way, practically every market sector was participating in the rally.
However, starting in September, things began to change. Breadth peaked in mid-September and has since been struggling to catch a bid. This was a red flag momentum was stalling out and the rally was beginning to weaken.
Indeed, multiple sectors with close ties to the real economy have been struggling. Specifically, homebuilders, banks, and retailers are all breaking down. This is a warning that despite the stock market hitting new all-time highs, thing are NOT well in the real economy. The breakdown in homebuilders is particularly concerning because eight of the 11 recessions since World War II started in housing. In this sense, housing can sometimes be construed as “the canary in the coal mine” for the overall economy.
In this context, the big question for investors is whether this deterioration in these economically sensitive sectors indicates the economy is rolling over into a recession that will trigger a stock market crash. After all, if the REAL economy is collapsing, it’s only a matter of time before stocks crater.
To answer this, I rely on a proprietary indicator that has triggered before every major meltdown in the last 50 years. This signal caught the 1987 crash, the Tech Crash, the Great Financial Crisis and more.
We detail this trigger, how it works, and what it’s saying about the markets today in How to Predict a Crash.
Normally we’d sell this report for $499, but in light of its recent warning, we’re making 99 copies available to the investing public.
