By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist
Yesterday was a whirlwind of news (some fake) concerning the conflict between Israel and Iran. Among the announcements:
- That President Trump left the G-7 meeting early to convene with the National Security Council in the Situation Room to discuss the U.S. potentially striking Iran (this was debunked).
- That President Trump was pushing for a ceasefire between Israel and Iran (this was also debunked).
- That secret nuclear sites were discovered in Iran (not confirmed).
- That the U.S.’s aircraft carrier the U.S.S Nimitz is heading to the Middle East with a strike force capable of hitting Iran.
- That the Trump administration is seriously considering joining the war and launching a strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities.
- That President Trump is urging people to evacuate Tehran.
At this point, trying to predict what comes next is impossible, particularly when you consider that the Trump administration is known to engage in strategic deception (the leaking of intentionally misleading information) to achieve its goals.
What IS clear is that Iran is growing desperate. Israel has taken out most of the country’s military leaders as well as the Tehran Police headquarters, the Intelligence Ministry, the Iranian Navy’s headquarters, Iran’s Justice Ministry, and the Iranian Air Force’s headquarters.
A desperate Iran is extremely dangerous, particularly if it turns out that the country does in fact have secret nuclear facilities and might in fact already have nuclear weapons. As of Wednesday morning, those reports are unconfirmed… but if true it would certainly explain why the Trump administration appears to be preparing for the U.S. potentially striking Iran.
In terms of the markets, the S&P 500 has broken down out of a rising wedge formation. Typically, this is seen as a bearish development, but thus far sell pressure has been muted.

The perceived weakness in selling pressure is primarily due to the resilience of big tech, which has held up well this week. When you overlay the equal-weighted S&P 500 on top, the breakdown looks more serious.

Moreover, oil continues to spike higher. This is concerning as it suggests something BAD is coming in the Israel/ Iran conflict. If things were about to calm down dramatically, oil would be falling, not rising to new highs.

Put simply, the markets are signaling danger more than peace. Obviously, this is a fluid situation that change at any point, but right now things appear to be heading the WRONG way from a risk perspective.
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Best Regards
Graham Summers, MBA
Chief Market Strategist
Phoenix Capital Research