The market continues to grind higher.
At this point, we’re about to enter the final month of the year. Most fund managers have had a TERRIBLE year. Only a handful of them accurately predicted the March meltdown and even fewer managed to buy at the lows once the market bottomed.
What does this mean?
That an entire industry of money managers has about four weeks to play “catch up” so they can post the best possible returns for 2020. Those who fail will lose clients and assets under management.
This has the makings of a market melt-up into year-end.
The S&P 500 has broken out of its three-month consolidation period. This breakout if it holds predicts a move to 4,000 before year-end.
This sounds crazy I know, but which is crazier… 4,000 on the S&P 500, or the notion that money managers will say, “you know what, I’ve performed terribly this year… I’m going to just take it easy in December and post my awful returns to my clients.”
You get my point.
Throw in the fact that both the Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB) are both printing tremendous amounts of money with both banks’ balance sheets hitting new all-time highs and you have the makings of a MELTUP into year-end.
And then of course… there’s the market’s reaction if the 2020 Presidential election ends up going for Trump.
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Chief Market Strategist
Phoenix Capital Research