The markets appear to be heading into a perfect storm.
There are few if any indications that War in Iran will end soon or easily. Despite the U.S. and Israel striking numerous Iranian targets (both facilities and personnel), Iran continues launch missiles at energy infrastructure throughout the Middle East.
From a strategic perspective, there is a LOT that can go wrong here. Iran is extremely rich in natural resources (it has the fourth largest oil reserves in the world, 2nd largest natural gas reserves in the world, the largest zinc and lead reserves in the world, and is a major source of copper, titanium, rare earth elements and more). It is also both ethnically diverse AND surrounded by nations that have their eyes on its assets.
Iran is bordered by seven different countries (Iraq, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan) with different ethnic/ religious/ political views. Is also borders five other nations (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia) via the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf. And to the south of it lies the Strait of Hormuz through which 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas resources are shipped.
Those who are looking at this situation and believing that it can be resolved easily are likely mistaken. This issue is not going away any time soon. And there is a LOT that can go wrong at any point.
Domestically, the February jobs report was a disaster.
The U.S. lost 92,000 jobs in February. As ZeroHedge notes, this is the second worst jobs report since 2020 (only October 2025 was worse). You don’t have to be an economist to note that the number of red months is increasing dramatically.
So, we have a major armed conflict with severe geopolitical repercussions occurring right as the U.S. economy appears to be rolling over. And to top it off, another wave of inflation appears to be around the corner.
Let me blunt here… the ONLY components in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) that are falling are energy prices. Every other item is RISING in price.
See for yourself…
In this context, the War in Iran has the potential to ignite another round of inflation as it will force energy prices MUCH higher.
So again, the markets are facing a perfect storm: a major armed conflict, a collapsing labor market, and the potential for another inflationary storm. Today, the odds of a market crash are greater than at any point in the last 12 months.
In terms of preparing for a market collapse, I rely on a proprietary indicator that has triggered before every major meltdown in the last 50 years. This signal caught the 1987 crash, the Tech Crash, the Great Financial Crisis and more.
We detail this trigger, how it works, and what it’s saying about the markets today in How to Predict a Crash.
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Graham Summers, MBA
Chief Market Strategist
Phoenix Capital Research
