DEBT BOMB

America’s Credibility Problem Isn’t Just Financial

The U.S. is looking poorly on the global stage.

For one thing, the debacle in Iran is dragging on far too long. Iran’s military capabilities are nowhere near the level of the U.S. And while the U.S. has crippled Iran’s navy, air force, and most of its missile defense systems, the latter nation has thus far refused to sign a peace agreement.

I have no idea what is going on “behind the scenes” here. No one save perhaps 100 people in the whole world does. But the optics are not good. How can the world’s greatest superpower capable of taking out another nation’s air force, navy, and most of its missile defenses in a matter of days NOT get the nation in question to sign a peace deal?

Did the U.S. accomplish a military success that ends up a strategic failure in that Iran simply by dragging things out long enough, ends up in greater control of the Strait of Hormuz as a result of the U.S. abandoning the issue for political reasons (the mid-term elections are approaching and the conflict in Iran is NOT popular)?

Again, the U.S. is looking poorly on the global stage.

Then there’s the World Cup debacle. This situation is less important strategically, but from a cultural significance, the optics are horrid.

The U.S. is hosting the World Cup. And for the most part, social media is teeming with accounts by tourists praising the U.S. and its people for their hospitality and kindness.

This whole situation changed dramatically this week when President Trump personally intervened to have a red card ruling on U.S. star Folarin Balogun overturned. The President stated that the red card ruling was “unfair” and that he wanted the U.S. to have a full squad for its upcoming game against Belgium.

Belgium promptly beat the U.S. 4 to 1.

Again, the U.S. is looking poorly on the global stage. Having the President personally intervene via pressure on FIFA to overturn a ruling only to get trounced by a team that drew against Iran and Egypt isn’t exactly inspiring. If anything, it makes it look as if President Trump’s intervention was both a waste of time and good will.

These issues are currently being mirrored by the U.S.’s financial situation where the nation’s debt is on track to hit $40 TRILLION by November.

The U.S. now sports a Debt to GDP of 120%. It is down from the pandemic peak but has begun turning back up again. As a nation we now owe more than we produce.

There are three ways to deal with excessive debt:

1) Default

2) Pay it off

3) Inflate it away via currency devaluation.

Every empire in history has tried #3, before eventually being forced to do #1. The U.S. is no different. The U.S. dollar has lost a third of its value since 2008.

Has the U.S. peaked? I have no idea. But one thing is clear, things aren’t looking good… and the financial implications are clear.

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Best Regards
Graham Summers
Chief Market Strategist
Phoenix Capital Research

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