Trump 2nd Term

How Trump’s Negotiating Strategies Can Make You Money

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

Thus far, the Trump tariff wars are following a negotiation framework that Trump has used throughout his career in commercial real estate.

That pattern:

  1. Open with an outrageous demand, thereby anchoring negotiations to a number that is highly in your favor.
  2. Ask for something in return for whenever you walk back from your original ask.
  3. Present your opponent with a long-term opportunity in exchange for deal that isn’t what they want right now.

Regarding #1, anchoring is a psychological phenomenon through which the negotiating parties become psychologically “anchored” to the first number or “ask” introduced in the negotiation regardless of how outrageous it is.

Consider the recent tariff war with Mexico.

President Trump introduced the negotiation with tariffs of 25% on all exports from Mexico to the United States. This was a huge and outrageous move to make (he could have opened with tariffs of just 5%), and it served the purpose of anchoring the negotiation on a number that is highly in his favor. This sets the #2 in our list: asking for something in return whenever you walk back from your original ask.

Now that negotiations are underway between President Trump and Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum, Trump can walk back from the threat of 25% tariffs (say to tariffs of 20%, 15%, etc.) while simultaneously asking for something in return. In this manner, it appears as if he’s “giving ground” and should get something in return for doing so (the rule of reciprocity).

It’s working.

Mexico has already agreed to put 10,000 troops at the border in exchange for the 25% tariffs not being introduced for a month. This is extraordinary. On Thursday, there were NO tariffs between the two nations. Four days later, by anchoring the negotiation on an extreme outcome (25% tariffs) Trump has already gotten Mexico to “buy into” the need for better border security between the two nations without giving up anything (all he’s done is postponed his intended tariffs by a month).

Which brings us to #3 in the above negotiations.

Trump is famous for suggesting a long-term relationship that is mutually beneficial in exchange for an immediate deal that is highly in his favor. In commercial real estate, this might consist of asking a contractor to perform a job for less money in exchange for the promise of a long-term relationship through which Trump would give the contractor lot more business in the future.

In terms of the current trade war between the U.S. and Mexico, President Trump could very well end up finalizing negotiations with tariffs of 10% on imports from Mexico, while offering any number of benefits to the country as part of a long-term trade agreement. In this fashion he scores a huge win politically, while introducing a new more balanced trade deal between the two nations.

For investors we are in a new environment in which those who have studied Trump and his strategies have a definite edge.  Because of our understanding of what Trump was doing over the weekend, we viewed the recent correction as an opportunity, NOT the start of a market crash or bear market.

To start receiving these kinds of actionable insights, join 56,000 readers in over 56 countries in receiving our daily market alert every weekday before the markets open (9:30AM EST).

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Best Regards

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in The Economy, The Markets, Trump 2nd Term

It’s Trump’s Stock Market, Invest Accordingly

The stock market is increasingly being driven by Trump and his agenda for his second term. If you’re looking to make money in this market, focusing on these items has been working well.

Consider what has taken place with Meta (META).

Historically, META’s CEO Mark Zuckerberg has been left leaning in his political views. He wasn’t just verbal in his politics either: he spent $400 million helping the Democrats defeat Trump in 2020.

With this in mind, one of the biggest “tells” that Trump would win the election was when Zuckerberg pivoted politically away from the left. In late August, he penned a letter to Congress claiming that he didn’t want to suppress right wing views on META but had done so due to pressure from the Biden administration. This was quite a move as polls had Harris leading at the time.

However, polls are quite inaccurate (as we’ve discovered this election cycle). But Zuckerberg had/has access to one of the greatest databases for voter behavior in the world via META. Americans might not tell pollsters who they intend to vote for, but you better believe they’re revealing that in private to their family and friends on social media. In this sense, Zuckerberg’s political pivot had less to do with true repentance for prior transgressions and more to do with pragmatism: he saw voters were going to deliver a landslide victory to Trump and was positioning himself and his company accordingly.

Having said that, once Trump won on November 5th, META shares lagged as investors were uncertain whether Trump would seek vengeance for Zuckerberg’s prior political actions. While the overall market exploded higher on election night (red line in the chart below), META shares (black line in the chart below) failed to participate.

Then Zuckerberg had dinner with Trump on November 27th, and META shares EXPLODED higher. They’re now up 6% since that date, having broken through critical overhead resistance (red line in the chart below) and soaring to new all-time highs.

Bear in mind, literally NOTHING changed about META’s business during this time other than Zuckerberg cozying up to Trump and publicly stating that he’d love to have a role in Trump’s new administration. But as you can see for yourself, those developments had a MAJOR impact on META’s share price action.

So again, as I stated at the beginning of this article, The stock market is increasingly being driven by Trump and his agenda for his second term. If you’re looking to make money in this market, focusing on these items has been working well.

If you’re looking for guidance on this, we just published a Special Investment Report detailing that, as well as the #1 investment to own during Trump’s 2nd Term.

We are selling this report as a standalone item for $499… but you can pick up a copy FREE simply by joining our daily market commentary, Gains Pains & Capital.

We are making only 99 copies available to the public.

As I write this, there are only 19 left…

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Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research ​

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market, Trump 2nd Term

What Are the Implications of DOGE?

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

The Trump administration intends to treat the government like a business, removing waste and increasing productivity. Can it be done? It’s difficult to say. Firing government employees is notoriously difficult (hence the “fail up” theme that is common in the public sector).

Having said that, there’s clearly room for improvement/ cost cutting. The bigger issues pertain to how the Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) would affect the overall economy.

Let’s dive in.

All told, over 23 MILLION people are employed by the government in the U.S. That’s not a typo. You can see this for yourself. The chart has gone straight up with few drops in the last 80 years.

Of this, the Federal Government is currently responsible for ~3 million workers. To put that into context, Wal-Mart employs roughly 1.6 million people in the U.S. So, Uncle Sam employs a little under two times as many people as the country’s largest private sector employer.

Does the government need all these employees? It’s difficult to say. There are plenty of stories of wasteful spending in government, but is the wasteful spending pertaining to programs, employees, or both?  Put another way, is DOGE’s mission to improve the U.S.’s fiscal situation… or is it meant to primarily reduce the size of the government?

This remains to be seen.

Moreover, is DOGE meant to apply to just Federal Employees, of is it mean to also streamline state and local government operations? The U.S. has 167 million people in its labor force. With three million of these people employed by Uncle Sam, this means that less than 2% of labor force would be in DOGE’s targets. If DOGE is meant to also apply to state and local government, then the percentage of people who could be affected jumps to 13% of the labor force.

These issues need to be clarified for us to get a better sense of the impact of DOGE on U.S. employment.

Finally, and perhaps most pressing for investors, will DOGE trigger a recession? Elon Musk famously laid off 80% of Twitter (now X’s) employees without too much difficulty. If he and Vivek Ramaswamy manage to accomplish even half of that (meaning laying off 40% of Federal Government employees), if would mean 1.2 million Federal Employees losing their jobs.

There are currently 6.9 million people unemployed out of a labor force of 168.4 million. This comes to a U-3 unemployment rate of 4.1%. Adding 1.2 million unemployed people to this ratio would increase the U-3 unemployment rate to 4.8%. And bear in mind that this analysis assumes that the overall labor force dynamics do NOT change at all in the private, state or local government sectors (unlikely if DOGE is also cutting spending).

The lowest U-3 unemployment rate during this current cycle was 3.4%. So, a spike to 4.8% in unemployment would mean a total increase of 1.4% to the unemployment rate trough to peak. That is roughly equal to the unemployment rate spikes that occurred during the recessions of the early ‘90s and the early ‘00s (1.6% and 1.4%, respectively) so this is recessionary territory.

Would President Trump be willing to stomach a technical recession if it was triggered by delivering a campaign promise to shrink the government? I have no idea. President Trump was extremely proud of the economy’s strength during the first three years of his first term. Would the pride of shrinking government for the first time in decades eclipse the perceived economic “failure” of a technical recession occurring during the first two years of his term? 

This remains to be seen.

The one thing that IS clear is that DOGE would improve the U.S. fiscal situation. This would remove one of the biggest concerns for the stock market (the U.S. debt mountain/ massive deficits) and open the door to new highs.

We just published a Special Investment Report detailing that, as well as the #1 investment to own during Trump’s 2nd Term.

We are selling this report as a standalone item for $499… but you can pick up a copy FREE simply by joining our daily market commentary, Gains Pains & Capital.

We are making only 99 copies available to the public.

As I write this, there are only 59 left…

To pick up yours…

We just published a Special Investment Report detailing that, as well as the #1 investment to own during Trump’s 2nd Term.

We are selling this report as a standalone item for $499… but you can pick up a copy FREE simply by joining our daily market commentary, Gains Pains & Capital.

We are making only 99 copies available to the public.

As I write this, there are only 67 left…

To pick up yours…

Best Reghttps://phoenixcapitalresearch.com/trump2ndterm-leadgen/

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Best Regards

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Trump 2nd Term, We called it...

How Trump Will Engineer a MAJOR Bull Market

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

Let’s grab a cup of coffee and talk about something that’s intrigued many of us over the past few years – Donald Trump’s impact on the stock market.

Whether you loved him, hated him, or found yourself somewhere in between, it’s undeniable that Trump’s presidency had a significant impact on the markets. And as investors, our goal is on making money, NOT choosing political sides. So, let’s break down how and why this happened, without getting caught in the political weeds.

Let’s start with Trump’s 2016 policies, and what they meant for stocks…

Key Policies and Their Impacts

Corporate Tax Cuts:

One of the cornerstone policies of Trump’s administration was the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. This piece of legislation slashed the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. Lower taxes meant higher net profits for companies, and subsequently, higher dividends for shareholders. This injection of optimism contributed to a bullish market.

Deregulation:

Trump’s administration took significant steps to roll back regulations, particularly in the financial and energy sectors. By reducing regulatory burdens, companies found it easier to do business and increase profitability. As a result, the market reacted positively, favoring sectors directly impacted by deregulation.

Trade Policies and Tariffs:

Perhaps the most contentious aspect of Trump’s economic policy was his approach to trade, particularly with China. The imposition of tariffs led to increased costs for businesses reliant on global supply chains and created uncertainty in the markets. However, many investors saw these moves as part of a broader strategy to level the playing field for American businesses.

Add it all up, and this mix of lower taxes, lower regulatory burden, and America-first dynamics were a boon for corporate profits, which drive stocks. The market roared higher during Trump’s 1st term. Even when the pandemic hit, Trump’s combination of aggressive stimulus along with the Fed’s extraordinary actions resulted in a rapid recovery. 

Stocks finished Trump’s term up over 85% for average annual gains of over 20%. This was an EXTRAORDINARY period to be a stock investor.

Now Donald Trump is President once again. And by the look of things, he’s going to be even more stock market obsessed with a specific focus on controlling the Fed top insure stocks go higher.

This is going to have a profound impact on the economy and stock markets. Our Chief Market Strategist, Graham Summers, MBA will be hosting a webinar addressing this situation next Friday, November 22nd at 1PM.

During this webinar, Graham will detail Trump’s proposals for reorganizing the Fed, who are the likely candidates for the next Fed chair, and what this will mean for the financial system and stock markets including specific investment strategies to profit from these developments.

This webinar will available to the general public for $49.99…

However, as a Gains Pains & Capital subscriber, you can reserve a place for just $9.99.

To do so… please use the button below.

For those investors looking fror specific investment strategies to profit from Trump’s 2nd term, we just released a Special Investment Report detailing what we consider to be the #1 investment to own during Trump’s 2nd Term. It rose 2,000% during his first term… and it’s already up 32% since election night!

We are selling this report as a standalone item for $499… but you can pick up a copy FREE simply by joining our daily market commentary, Gains Pains & Capital.

We are making only 99 copies available to the public.

As I write this, there are only 56 left…

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Best Regards

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Trump 2nd Term

Ignore the Donations, the Fed Has Been Political For DECADES, Part 1

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

The Federal Reserve (or “the Fed” for short) is supposed to be a politically independent entity.

Political commentators are outraged that Federal Reserve employees donated $10 to Democrats for every $1 to Republicans during this latest election cycle. As you can imagine, this has resulted in numerous accusations of the Fed being a left-leaning or Democrat controlled entity.

Those accusations are true.

However, the reality is that the Fed’s political actions are far greater than the mere $552,000 Fed employees donated to the left in the last four years. Indeed, in the last 15 years alone, there have been at least FOUR occasions during which the Fed engaged in monetary policies that were questionable at best, given the political context.

For those of us who track these things, the Fed:

  1. Influenced the 2012 Presidential race to aid the Obama Administration’s re-election bid.
  2. Damaged the economy/ financial system on purpose in 2017-2018 as an act of defiance against President Trump
  3. Claimed inflation was “transitory” despite mountains of evidence to the contrary, only to then abandon this claim as soon as Fed Chair Jerome Powell was reappointed by President Biden.
  4. Announced a new focus on climate change/ DEI/ leftist political interests despite those issues being outside the scope of the Fed’s mandates.

Let’s dive in.

First and foremost, consider that in 2012, the Bernanke-led Fed announced QE 3, its largest QE program in history at the time (an $80 billion per month, open-ended program), a mere THREE MONTHS before the U.S. Presidential election.

Bear in mind that the U.S. economy was growing, and the U.S. financial system wasn’t under significant duress at the time. Also bear in mind that the Fed did this within 90 days of a Presidential election.

In this context the decision to launch the largest QE program to date was blatant political interference to aid the Obama Administration’s re-election bid by boosting the stock market and economy. Even if you’re inclined to give the Fed a pass for this, you can’t argue that given the data and the timing, the move was suspect.

A second example of Fed political bias concerns its major shift in monetary policy once Donald Trump became President in 2017. To fully grasp this, we need to provide a little historical context.

Between 2008 and 2016, the Fed engaged in eight years of extraordinary monetary easing, maintaining interest rates of 0.25% (zero), and engaging in over $3 trillion worth of QE. Bear in mind that throughout this time, the U.S. economy was technically NOT in recession. Economic growth was steady:

And the unemployment rate was in a clear downtrend:

Once the Fed actually ended easing, it embarked on one of the feeblest campaigns of tightening monetary policy in history, raising rates only one time in 2015 and 2016 each. To put this into context, during a normal cycle, the Fed raises rates by three or four times per year.

Then Donald Trump won the 2016 Presidential election, and suddenly the Fed “got religion” about normalizing monetary policy. It raised rates three times in 2017 and another four times in 2018. In 2018, it also began shrinking its balance sheet via a process called Quantitative Tightening or QT. It would ultimately drain $500 billion in liquidity from the financial system via QT in 12 months.

All the above represent quite a shift considering the Fed had maintained rates at or close to ZERO for eight years prior to this. And this shift ended up damaging the economy and stock market.

Throughout 2016-2018, the Fed ignored numerous signals that this pace of tightening was placing the financial system under duress, right up until the junk bond market froze and the U.S. stock market crashed 20% during the holidays in December 2018.

For those who would argue that the Fed’s sudden shift from maintaining easy monetary policy for the better part of a decade to aggressively normalizing policy in the span of 20 months had nothing to do with Donald Trump being President, consider that former Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fisher admitted in an interview that the Fed’s raising rates in December 2018 was done specifically to hurt the economy because the Fed was annoyed with President Trump’s constant tweeting about them.

We’ll detail the final two politically egregious Fed actions in tomorrow’s article. But for now, the above examples alone are enough to definitively show the Fed IS a political entity and it DOES lean to the left.

Now Donald Trump is President once again. And he is going to exact vengeance on the Fed.

This is going to have a profound impact on the economy and stock markets. Our Chief Market Strategist, Graham Summers, MBA will be hosting a webinar addressing this situation next Friday, November 22nd at 1PM.

During this webinar, Graham will detail Trump’s proposals for reorganizing the Fed, who are the likely candidates for the next Fed chair, and what this will mean for the financial system and stock markets including specific investment strategies to profit from these developments.

This webinar will available to the general public for $49.99…

However, as a Gains Pains & Capital subscriber, you can reserve a place for just $9.99.

To do so…

Click Here Now!

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Banana Republic Corruption, Trump 2nd Term

Trump Will Win… If You Don’t Believe Me… Maybe You’ll Listen to These Two!

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

As I keep stating, Donald Trump will win the 2024 U.S. Presidential election.

The first major signal (aside from the betting markets) was Meta (formerly Facebook) founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg pivoting politically in August 2024.

Zuckerberg has been left-leaning for most of his career. But he is also a pragmatist. And with Meta, he has access to what is perhaps the largest dataset of voter sentiment in the world. We’re talking about what voters really think as opposed to what they tell a pollster.

Zuckerberg pivoted politically in August 2024, writing a letter to Congress in which he stated that the Biden administration had pressured him and Meta to limit free speech.

That is one heck of a statement by one of the most powerful, connected elites in the world. Do you think Zuckerberg would do this if he didn’t see the writing on the wall via Meta’s massive collection of voter sentiment?

Zuckerberg isn’t the only one who’s figured out that Trump will win either.

Yesterday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy outlined the steps he would take to make sign a peace treaty with Russia. This comes after 2+ years of armed conflict between the two countries… conflict that was financed by the Biden administration/ congress to the tune of $175+ BILLION.

Zelenskyy has had countless opportunities to end this conflict since it began in early 2022. Indeed, there was a full peace deal prepared as early as April 2022 that the U.S. and U.K. rejected. The only reason Zelenskyy is looking to make a deal now is because he knows Trump will soon be the next President and the U.S. will no longer be funding this conflict.

Again, Donald Trump will win the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. The most connected tech and political elites are already preparing for it.

You should too…

We just published a Special Investment Report detailing that, as well as the #1 investment to own during Trump’s 2nd Term.

We are selling this report as a standalone item for $499… but you can pick up a copy FREE simply by joining our daily market commentary, Gains Pains & Capital.

We are making only 99 copies available to the public.

As I write this, there are only 67 left…

To pick up yours…

Best Regards

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market, Trump 2nd Term, We called it...

What Does a Trump 2nd Term Mean For Stocks?

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

I hate politics. 

Politics are a full contact sport that brings out the ugliest aspects of human nature. And the political environment today is more toxic than at any other time in my lifetime.

Unfortunately for investors, the President and his/her agenda for the economy has a MAJOR impact on the markets. For those of us who want to make money  from our investments, we have to address recent political events.

With that in mind, it is clear that Donald Trump will be the next U.S. President. That is not an opinion, it’s a fact: the betting markets give Trump a ~60% chance of winning. 

This will have clear implications for risk assets, specifically stocks.

Why?

Trump is the Ultimate Stock Market Cheerleader

First and foremost, former President Trump LOVES the stock market.

During President Trump’s first term, then-Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that the Trump administration viewed the stock market as a “barometer” for the economy. Put another way, with stocks, President Trump had a real-time measure he could point to when claiming that his agenda was benefiting Americans’ net worth.

Indeed, between 2016 and 2020, President Trump posted 256 tweets mentioning the term “market”, 162 tweets mentioning the terms “stock market” another 26 tweets mentioning “stocks,” 23 tweets mentioning “highs” in relation to stocks, and finally 15 tweets mentioning the “S&P 500” all on X (formerly Twitter).

All told, we’re talking about ~500 tweets touting the stock market in a four-year span. That comes to at least TWO tweets per week during Trump’s first term!

I do not anticipate this focus on stocks to change during Trump’s 2nd Term. Say what you will about Donald Trump, but he loves wealth. And the stock market is the 2nd most-owned asset class in America behind housing: 56% of American households have exposure to stocks vs. 65% who own real estate.

Moreover, President Trump has already figured out that the stock market is a segment of the economy that he can rapidly and dramatically influence via social media. To wit, dozens of times during the trade war with China during Trump’s 1st Term he tweeted positive news about negotiations (oftentimes extremely vague) and stocks would rip higher.

The only thing Trump might love more than wealth is power. And the power to push stocks higher is one that I doubt he’ll forgo during his 2nd term.

With that in mind, it is very likely the stock market will push after Trump’s November win in 2024. This is particularly true when you consider the macro environment President Trump will inherit and create.

The Fed has already started cutting interest rates. So, Trump will inherit a stock market driven by Fed initiating a new easing cycle, at a time when the economy is still growing.

This is as close to a “goldilocks” environment for stocks you can get. And Trump will inherit this without lifting a finger.

Moreover, Team Trump has already leaked that they intend to pressure and potentially even assume partial control of the Fed via the Treasury.

This is what’s known as a “trial” balloon through which politicians gauge the public’s response to a potential policy.

I’ve posted a blurb from CNBC on the policy below…

This proposal is not surprising. From 2018-2019 Trump routinely harassed the Fed on social media, emphasizing that the Fed’s decision to raise rates and drain liquidity via Quantitative Tightening (QT) were harming his beloved stock market.

The below tweets are two such examples.

To recap…

1) The Fed was already talking about cutting rates before Trump took the lead in the polls. There is no way the Fed can reverse this intended policy path without drawing President Trump’s ire.

2) During his first term, Trump was extremely combative with the Fed, particularly any attempt by the latter to tighten monetary policy.

3) Team Trump has already leaked a document proposing several policies including

A) allowing the President to fire the Fed Chair prior to the end of the latter’s term,

B) giving the White House greater control over the Fed’s interest rate decisions, and C) using the Treasury to influence the Fed’s bond buying activities.

Considering the above items, it is clear that President Trump will have an even greater influence over the stock market during his second term.

Put simply, you could almost argue that “stocks going up” will be a Presidential Mandate!

How high could stocks go on a Trump win?

We just published a Special Investment Report detailing that, as well as the #1 investment to own during Trump’s 2nd Term.

We are selling this report as a standalone item for $499… but you can pick up a copy FREE simply by joining our daily market commentary, Gains Pains & Capital.

We are making only 99 copies available to the public.

To pick up yours…

Best Regards

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It IS different this time., It's a Bull Market, Trump 2nd Term

Is THE Top in For Stocks?

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

Editors note: Chief Market Strategist Graham Summers, MBA will be on the Schilling Show radio program today at 1:30 EST. You can listen in here.

Everywhere I look, I see investors proclaiming that “THE” top is in and a bear market is about to unfold.

First and foremost, there is NO reason to ever try to call a top.

Why?

Because doing so doesn’t make you any money. In fact, top callers usually miss out on major market gains by selling way too early.

Consider what happened during the last market correction in April 2024. Then, just as now, the top callers came out of the woodwork. The market corrected for two weeks before rallying another 15%. Anyone who sold, missed out on these gains.

Moreover, there are nearly ZERO signs from real market indicators that THE top is in right now.

Consider the last major bear market that unfolded from early 2022 until October 2023. At that time, high yield credit broke down along with stocks, signaling that a major shift had taken place in the financial system.

Today, high yield credit is near all-time highs. If anything, it is signaling that stocks have sold off TOO MUCH!

The same is true for market breadth. Going into the bear market of 2022, breadth peaked before stocks.

Today, breadth is near all-time highs. It too is signaling that the selling is overdone for stocks.

Finally, and likely most importantly, the U.S. is four months away from the next Presidential election. And the next President of the United States, Donald Trump, is obsessed with the stock market.

Do you REALLY want to be shorting stocks when the single biggest cheerleader in the history of the stock market is going to take office? 

With that in mind, we are about to publish a Special Investment Report detailing the #1 investment to own when during a Trump 2nd Term.

Normally, this report would sell as a stand-alone item for $499, but we are giving away a limited number of copies for free to investors who join our daily e-letter: Gains Pains & Capital.

To join today… and reserve your copy of The #1 Investment to Own During Trump’s 2nd Term…

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Best Regards

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in The Markets, Trump 2nd Term

These Are the Two Charts You NEED to See Today

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

This correction is close to over. And when it ends, stocks will rally hard to new all-time highs.

How do I know this?

Because the market internals are telling me.

Historically, high yield credit leads the stock market. The reason for this is because high yield credit (read: junk bonds) is MUCH more sensitive to macro changes due to the fact that when the economy rolls over, junk bond investors typically lose a LOT of money very quickly.

Because of this, high yield credit acts as a kind of “canary in the coal mine” for the financial system. If something BAD is coming, this is the first area to react.

High yield credit (red line in the chart below) just hit new all-time highs. Indeed, based on high yield credit, the S&P 500 should be north of 5,600 right now. This is NOT bearish for risk assets including stocks.

High yield credit isn’t the only market internal that suggests stocks are ready to rip higher.

Overall breadth has bounced hard after hitting new all-time highs. The below chart is telling us that the S&P 500 is being dragged down by big tech, but overall market breadth is getting STRONGER not weaker.

Again, this is NOT bearish. Indeed, if we go by breadth (red line in the chart below), the S&P 500 should be 100 points higher right now.

I suspect part of the reason why market internals are acting so strongly is because the market is discounting that the next President of the United States will be Donald Trump, who is obsessed with the stock market.

If you’ll recall, the former President promoted the stock market almost non-stop during his first term. Indeed, he tweeted about it an average of two times per week, mentioned it in the media dozens of times, and even pumped it higher by leaking economic developments any time it looked as if the markets would break down.

Put simply, Trump is a stock market cheerleader, and I believe the stock market is discounting a second Trump term. This will benefit certain sectors and stocks more than others. And those investors who are properly positioned stand to make potential fortunes.

With that in mind, we are about to publish a Special Investment Report detailing the #1 investment to own when during a Trump 2nd Term.

Normally, this report would sell as a stand-alone item for $499, but we are giving away a limited number of copies for free to investors who join our daily e-letter: Gains Pains & Capital.

To join today… and reserve your copy of The #1 Investment to Own During Trump’s 2nd Term…

www.gainspainscapital.com/subscribe

Best Regards

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in 2024 Election, Trump 2nd Term