As we’ve noted previously, the Fed is currently engaged in an aggressive campaign to shrink its balance sheet.
What started as just $10 billion per month in QT back in October 2016, has since increased to $30 billion in QT per month as of April 2018.
What’s critical to note, however, is that throughout this period, the Fed has largely engaged in its QT drains during the second half of each month.
You may not have noticed it, but the stock market certainly did… with stocks taking a nosedive during the second half of every month in 2018… RIGHT as the Fed began QT.
Take note the red boxes below… the second half of each month has been a bit of a bloodbath. Thank the Fed and QT.
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Which brings us to this month… stocks are rising sharply during the first two weeks of trading as usual… just in time for the second half QT bloodbath.
And it will almost certainly be a bloodbath… the Fed’s QT program will increase to $40 billion this month… right as stocks reach one of
their most overbought levels thus far.
Put another way, the Fed will be engaged in its GREATEST liquidity drain thus far… right as investors are fully primed for stocks to roar higher.
And they’re ALL going to get taken to the cleaners.
The time to prepare for this is NOW before the carnage hits.
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Chief Market Strategist
Phoenix Capital Research