Month: March 2017

The simplest outline for this week concerns inflation.

Stocks have erupted higher in the last month based on the belief that the economy is roaring once again. However, this is all about sentiment, not reality. The Fed’s own real-time GDP tracking tools has collapsed from predicting growth of 3.5% in early February to just 1.9% last week.

While “growth” isn’t coming anytime soon… INFLATION is.

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Globally, inflation metrics are going through the roof. In the US, inflation is now well above the Fed’s target rate of 2%. If you were looking at this chart as if it were a stock, you’d say that was a seriously bullish breakout.

The story is the same in Europe as well, where inflation is staging a bullish breakout to the upside. Two years ago, the EU was in a deflationary nightmare. Today, inflation is roaring having risen 3.5% in the last 18 months.

Inflation has even appeared in Japan for the first time in years.

THIS, not growth, is the big story for 2017: after maintaining interest rates at ZERO if not negative for 7 years, and printing over $14 trillion, Central Banks have unleashed an inflationary tsunami.

Those who invest appropriately will make literal fortunes from this trend.

If you’re looking for active real time “buy” and “sell” alerts to help you make money from the markets I strongly urge you to take out a 98 cent trial to my Private Wealth Advisory newsletter.

Private Wealth Advisory is a weekly investment advisory that tells investors what stocks and ETFs to buy and sell… and when to do so.

Does it work?

A full 86% of our investments made money in the last 26 months. Yes, 86%, meaning we make money on more than 8 out of 10 closed positions.

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Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

 

 

 

 

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The stock market is now officially a political tool.

The Trump White House has made it clear that it views the stock market as a “report card” on Trump’s policies.

Regardless of whether or not you like Trump is irrelevant. The reality is that INDIVIDUAL investors have voted with their money and in massive way, piling into stocks at a pace we’ve not seen since 2014.

Source: Zerohedge

Since election night, investors have put MORE money into stocks than they did throughout ALL of 2015. A whopping $8.2 billion piled into stocks in a single day just last week.

This means that stocks are now a “mom and pop” investor item in ways we’ve not seen since 1999. CNBC and friends like to talk about stocks as it everyone owns them, the reality is that the American public only gets heavily and directly involved in the stock market on RARE occasions (most Americans own stocks indirectly via retirement funds, only rarely do they actually move their own money into a brokerage account and then buy stocks themselves).

Indeed, the last time that individual Americans got involved in stocks in the manner in which they have since election night was in the late ‘90s during the Tech Bubble.

What does this mean?

The stock market is now a massive political tool. Any collapse in stock prices will be seen as directly impacted Americans who committed to an investment class (albeit at nosebleed valuations).

This is why Trump keeps tweeting about the stock markets. He knows Americans are now betting directly with their money. And if the market collapses… the political fallout for who “caused it” (not Trump) will be massive.

If you’re looking for active real time “buy” and “sell” alerts to help you make money from the markets I strongly urge you to take out a 98 cent trial to my Private Wealth Advisory newsletter.

Private Wealth Advisory is a weekly investment advisory that tells investors what stocks and ETFs to buy and sell… and when to do so.

Does it work?

A full 86% of our investments made money in the last 26 months. Yes, 86%, meaning we make money on more than 8 out of 10 closed positions.

Currently our portfolio is chock full of winners too, including gains of 10%, 12%, 15%, 25% even 33%.

Heck earlier this week, we just closed out an 18% winner this morning.

Best of all, you can explore Private Wealth Advisory  for 30 days for just $0.98.

To do so…

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Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

The biggest trade in the world is staring everyone in the face.

According to a Bank of America/ Merrill Lynch fund manager survey, the US Dollar is the single most crowded trade on the planet.

In a fiat world, the value of a given currency is based on where it trades relative to other currencies. In the case of the $USD, the Euro comprises 56% of the basket of currencies against which the $USD is valued.

Put another way, whatever happens to the Euro will trigger an inverse reaction in the $USD.

I mention this because the Euro is about to explode higher to 120 as the ECB ends its QE program and begins talking about hiking rates.

I realize this sounds completely insane… but take a look at the data:

Inflation in the EU is erupting higher. German inflation topped 2% for the first time since 2012.

The rise in German inflation, to 2.2 per cent in February, took annual price rises above the ECB’s target rate for the eurozone of close to but under 2 per cent. It came as Jens Weidmann, the president of Germany’s Bundesbank, said the ECB would have to raise its eurozone inflation forecast this month on the back of rising oil prices and a strengthening economy.

Source: Financial Times

This is spreading across Europe.

Euro zone inflation is likely to be sharply higher in 2017 than projected but will still dip towards the end of the year, Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann said on Wednesday, arguing that accommodative monetary policy remains appropriate.

With inflation surging on higher oil prices, and criticism of the European Central Bank (ECB) mounting in Germany ahead of September’s elections, pressure has increased on the ECB to at least start a discussion about when and how it would scale back its extraordinary stimulus measures.

Source: Reuters

With inflation surging, there is NO reason for the ECB to be engaged in a massive €60 billion per month QE program. The ECB will be forced to taper this program if not end it entirely in the very near future.

This will ignite the Euro to 120 if not higher. The EU currency is beyond oversold. Even Germany has admitted that it is too low.

The markets are already smelling this, despite all the hoopla about the $USD being THE asset class to own, the Euro is actually outperforming the $USD thus far in 2017 (albeit marginally).

Give the hype surrounding the $USD and the DOOM surrounding the Euro, you’d expect the $USD to be 5% or more than the EU currency.

NOPE.

Massive tectonic changes in the market are rarely perceived in advance. But given the above factors (excessive popularity of the $USD, inflation in the EU, talk of tapering QE by the ECB) we have the makings of a “rip your face off” rally in the Euro.

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Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research