Inflation

The Fed is Now Cornered… and There’s Nothing It Can Do to Fix This!

The Fed is now cornered (to a degree).

This is not to say that the Fed cannot continue to print money, nor does it mean the Fed is “out of ammunition” as many bears like to claim.

The Fed is technically never out of ammunition as it can print money forever. Moreover, as the Fed’s policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic has shown us, the Fed is more than willing to engage in policies that are technically illegal (buy corporate bonds, buy municipal bonds, etc.) by using loopholes (print the money and give it to the Treasury to buy these assets) when it’s necessary.

However, there are some problems that Fed policy simply cannot solve. And today, the markets are facing two of them.

They are:

  1. Supply-chain issues.
  2. The global energy crisis.

Printing money, Quantitative Easing (QE), maintaining low interest rates, even buying assets and securities that are technically outside the Fed’s legal mandate…. NONE of those policies can remedy supply-chain issues, or their inflationary effects.

The Fed can’t MAKE people return to work… or force them to give up their new careers and go back to unloading cargo ships or working in manufacturing facilities.

Similarly, for the Energy Crisis, the Fed can’t print oil or coal. QE doesn’t lower energy prices. And maintaining lower interest rates doesn’t make coal miners/ oil employees go back to work and start drilling or mining.

Meanwhile, inflation expectations are erupting higher. They’ve just taken out their May 2021 highs, which marked the PEAK for the last inflationary thrust.

Graphical user interface, chart, line chart

Description automatically generated

These problems (supply chain issues and an energy crisis) aren’t going away any time soon either… Copper has just hit an all-time high!

Meanwhile, Oil just broke out of a 13 year bear market!

With the right investments, we are talking about the opportunity to make literal fortunes here as inflation RIPS through the financial system igniting MASSIVE price spikes in key sectors.

I outline five investments that could explode higher as inflation rips through the financial system in a Special Investment Report titled Survive the Inflationary Storm.

To pick up a free copy, swing by

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation
If You Think Inflation is GOOD For Stocks… Take a Look at This

If You Think Inflation is GOOD For Stocks… Take a Look at This

The Fed continues to push the narrative that inflation is transitory.

On one level, Fed officials are correct. Everything is transitory. But the Fed isn’t being philosophical here…it’s attempting to argue that they don’t need to do anything, and the current wave of inflation will naturally dissipate.

I know, this is ridiculous. But the Fed is so desperate to maintain its $120 billion per month money printing scheme, that it must come up with ridiculous excuses.

First it tried Climate Change, but since it’s not clear how printing money fixes the weather, they’ve shifted gears to claiming inflation isn’t an issue and will go away on its own.

Why do this?

Well, it’s difficult to claim that printing $1.4 TRILLION per year is a benign enterprise when the cost of living is rising by double digits. And so we end up with ridiculous situations in which Fed officials are forced to make foolish claims such as their biggest concern is that we won’t have enough inflation.

I’m not kidding.

Yesterday, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans stated the following whopper: “I am more uneasy about us not generating enough inflation in 2023 and 2024 than the possibility that we will be living with too much.”

It’d be hilarious if it wasn’t causing so much suffering for everyday Americans. Anyone who’s been to the grocery store or filled up their cars at the gas station knows this is bunk.

The same goes for anyone who is paying attention to what the markets are actually saying. If you turn off the news and simply focus on the charts, it’s clear the market is SCREAMING “inflation!”

The top performing asset classes this year are Energy (XLE), Financials (XLF) and Real Estate (XLRE). They are up 43%, 33% and 26%, respectively.

Chart, line chart

Description automatically generated

These are all inflation plays.

Energy and real estate are obvious. And Financials rally when yields rise (and yields are rising due to inflation). Heck, even Goldman Sachs has figured this out and is warning its private clients about a commodities super-cycle courtesy of an inflationary storm.

If you think this will be great news for the stock market, think again. During the last major bout of inflation in the 1970s, stocks collapsed some 50%. Even worse, they finished the decade DOWN.

Put another way, a crash is coming. The big question is, “WHEN?”

To figure this out, I rely on certain key signals that flash before every market crash.

I detail them, along with what they’re currently saying about the market today in a Special Investment Report How to Predict a Crash.

To pick up a free copy, swing by

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/predictcrash.html

Best Regards

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation
Ok, This is TRULY Horrifying!

Ok, This is TRULY Horrifying!

 Yesterday, I outlined a terrible secret.

That secret?

That the Fed knows the official inflation measure, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is practically useless for forecasting future inflation.

In a little-known paper published in 2001, the Fed found that food inflation, NOT CPI or PCE, is the best predictor of future inflation. Fed researchers wrote the following:

We see that past inflation in food prices has been a better forecaster of future inflation than has the popular core measure [CPI and PCE]…Comparing the past year’s inflation in food prices to the prices of other components that comprise the PCEPI (as in Table 1), we find that the food component still ranks the best among them all

Source: St Louis Fed (emphasis added).

I want you to focus on these two admissions:

  1. The Fed has admitted that its official inflation measures do not accurately predict future inflation.
  • The Fed admitted that FOOD prices are a much better predictor of future inflation. In fact, food prices were a better predictor of inflation than the Fed’s PCE, non-durables goods, transportation services, housing, clothing, energy and more.

I mention all of this because today food inflation is erupting higher.

We already noted that agricultural commodities are ripping higher.

But the situation is even worse than I imagined. The below quote is truly horrifying…

Adjusted for inflation and annualized, [food] costs are already higher now than for almost anytime in the past six decades, according FAO data. Indeed, it’s now harder to afford food than it was during the 2011 protests in the Middle East that led to the overthrow of leaders in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt, said Alastair Smith, senior teaching fellow in global sustainable development at Warwick University in the U.K.

Source: Yahoo! Finance

Put simply, food inflation today than at almost any time in the last 60 years. That would include the 1970s, when inflation went into the double digits and the stock market crashed over 50% in a matter of months.

If you think we’re immune to something like this now, take a look at the below chart. This is a massive bubble, looking for a pin. And by the look of things, inflation is it!

On that note, we published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We made 100 copies available to the public.

Today is the last day this report is available to the general public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation
Trust Me, the Fed Doesn’t Want You to Know This

Trust Me, the Fed Doesn’t Want You to Know This

Yesterday I explained how the official inflation statistic used by policymakers, the Consumer Price Index or CPI, is practically useless.

I realize this is quite controversial. After all, everyone on the planet from hedge fund managers to social security administrators uses this data point as THE inflation measure.

Unfortunately for them, CPI is pretty much useless. It doesn’t accurately measure inflation in any way shape or form.

Today, I’m going to let you in on a little secret.

The Fed knows this.

In fact, the Fed has known this for years… since 2001 to be exact.

Back in 2001, the Fed had several researchers dive into the subject of inflation. Their goal was the analyze whether the Fed’s preferred measures of inflation (the CPI and the Personal Consumption Expenditures or PCE) are decent predictors of future inflation.

The Fed also investigated a whole slew of other inflation measures for comparison purposes.

The results?

The Fed found that food inflation, NOT CPI or PCE, is the best predictor of future inflation. Fed researchers wrote the following:

We see that past inflation in food prices has been a better forecaster of future inflation than has the popular core measure [CPI and PCE]…Comparing the past year’s inflation in food prices to the prices of other components that comprise the PCEPI (as in Table 1), we find that the food component still ranks the best among them all

Source: St Louis Fed (emphasis added).

I want you to focus on these two admissions:

  1. The Fed has admitted that its official inflation measures do not accurately predict future inflation.
  • The Fed admitted that FOOD prices are a much better predictor of future inflation. In fact, food prices were a better predictor of inflation than the Fed’s PCE, non-durables goods, transportation services, housing, clothing, energy and more.

With that in mind, take a look at what is happening with agricultural commodities, which are the primary supplies for food.

Chart, histogram

Description automatically generated

You are looking at the end of a 12-year bear market… and the beginning of a new bull market.

If you think this is going to go well for stocks, you are mistaken. During the last major bout of inflation in the 1970s, stocks initially ripped higher for a few years before crashing ~50% erasing all their gains and then some. Even worse, the stock market finished the decade having gained ZERO in 10 years.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We made 100 copies available to the public.

There are just 9 left.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation
This Company Gave Us a Glimpse Into What’s Coming to the Broader Market

This Company Gave Us a Glimpse Into What’s Coming to the Broader Market

The deflationists had another bad day yesterday.

Deflationists argue that inflation doesn’t exist because the Treasury market isn’t acting as if inflation is a problem. They always fail to mention that the Treasury market is ALSO the most manipulated market on the planet. The Fed is currently spending over $1 trillion per year buying these bonds, effectively cornering them.

So why was yesterday a bad day for deflationists?

Because it was revealed that apartment rents are up almost 15% year over year since June. Yes, 15%. This is the highest annual increase since 1993.

By the way, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which compiles the official inflation data for the U.S. claims “rents or shelter” is in fact only up 2.6% over the same period. As Bill King notes, if CPI accurately reflected the real jump in rent inflation, CPI would be at least 4% higher (north of 9%).

So, while the bond market continues to exist in a manipulated state of fantasy, real people are experiencing real jumps in prices, which is causing real economic damage.

This will eventually lead to catastrophe.

Stocks initially LOVE inflation but that love eventually turns to hate when costs rise so much that they eat into profits.


This was the case during the last real bout of inflation in the 1970s. At that time stocks initially rallied aggressively from mid-1970 to 1974. Then inflation spiraled out of control and the markets crashed some 50%.

Chart, histogram

Description automatically generated

This time around will prove no different. We are already beginning to see signs of this in individual stocks.

Consider Clorox (CLRX). The company lost over 11% of its market cap yesterday when it revealed that the company’s cost of products as a percentage of net sales spiked from 53% in 2Q20 to 63% in 2Q21.

The reason for this spike in costs?

Inflation.

CLRX shares erased months’ worth of gains in a single day and are now back to where they were in early 2020, erasing the ENTIRE COVID-19 ramp.

Chart, line chart, histogram

Description automatically generated

This kind of collapse will be spreading more and more throughout the stock market as inflation roars.

With that in mind, we’ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

We are making just 100 copies available to the general public.

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation

Buckle Up: Jerome Powell “Cut a Deal” And Inflation is Going Roar!

Over the last two days, we’ve outlined how the bond market is predicting a surge in inflation.

By quick way of review:

  1. Real rates, as measured by the difference between yields on Inflation Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities or TIPS and regular Treasuries have been surging higher (see the chart below).
  • This means that TIPS are dramatically outperforming Treasuries right now. Since TIPs trade based on inflation expectations, this suggests that the bond market is predicting much higher inflation.

What would cause this?

Another round of massive money printing.

We’ve already noted that the Biden administration hopes to sign a $2-$4 trillion infrastructure program into law in the next few weeks. And after that there is talk of a $1.7 trillion climate change program.

Today, I’d like to tackle the Fed’s role in all of this.

The Fed is currently engaged in a $120 billion per month Quantitative Easing (QE) program. This comes to over $1.4 trillion in month printing per year.

Recently the Fed has been hinting that it intends to taper this program, and possibly start raising rates sometime in 2022/ early 2023. But by the look of things, that will no longer be the case.

Why?

Because the Biden administration recently leaked that it intends to give Jerome Powell as second term as Fed Chair starting in 2022.

The story was leaked via Bloomberg, which has a close relationship with the Biden administration. And it suggests that Jerome Powell has “cut a deal” with Joe Biden to stay on as Fed chair. After all, the only way that Joe Biden would give Jerome Powell a second term would be if the latter “got onboard” with Biden’s agenda.

That agenda?

Keep the economy as strong as possible going into the 2022 mid-terms.

This means NO tapering, NO rate hikes, and NO tightening of monetary conditions for the foreseeable future. Sure, the Fed might jawbone things or stage verbal interventions here and there to provide political cover, but there is no way on earth Jerome Powell can tighten monetary conditions in the near future if he wants to stay on as Fed Chair.

Which means…

Inflation is going to ROAR in the coming months.

On that note, if you’re concerned about inflation, we have published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation

Why Inflation is About to Get a Whole Lot Worse

Yesterday I outlined how real rates suggest gold will be moving MUCH higher in the coming months.

By quick way of review:

  1. Because we are in a fiat-based monetary regime, gold trades like any other asset.
  • Specifically, gold typically tracks “real rates” or the actual cost of money as illustrated by the difference between yields on Inflation Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities or TIPS and regular Treasuries).
  • Real rates typically lead gold at major turns. We saw this at the bottom in March 2020 and more recently in June 2021.

Recently a massive divergence has developed between real rates and gold with real rates rising and gold lagging (see the chart below).

This would suggest gold will be going MUCH higher in the coming months.

What would trigger this?

 Inflation.

Remember, real rates represent the difference between the yields on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) and regular Treasuries. So, when TIPs outperform regular Treasuries, this line rises, and when regular Treasuries outperform TIPs, this line falls.

So, the fact real rates are rising so aggressively means that TIPS which focus on inflation are dramatically outperforming Treasuries right now. This means the bond market is predicting greater inflation is coming.

What would trigger this?

Two things:

  1. The $2-$4 trillion infrastructure program the Biden Administration is hoping to sign into law in the near future.
  • Jerome Powell’s continued tenure as Fed Chair in 2022.

Regarding #1, policymakers have already made it clear from their response to the 2020 shutdowns that their entire blueprint for dealing with crises, boils down to just two words.

PRINT MONEY.

Shutting down the economy triggers a depression?

Print money.

Stock market experiences fastest 30% crash in history?

Print money.

Municipal bonds collapse because the bond markets don’t believe cities and states will be able to meet their debt obligations?

Print money.

The economy still hasn’t come back because state officials continue to keep their economies on partial or complete lock downs?

Print money.

The economy isn’t coming back fast enough despite vaccines and states reopening?

Print money.

Indeed, policymakers printed so much money to combat the impact of the COVID-189 lockdowns that if you add up all of the money the U.S. has ever printed… over 40% of it was printed in 2020.

And the Biden administration doesn’t intend to stop anytime soon. It has already implemented a $1.9 trillion stimulus. It’s now attempting to get a $2-$4 trillion infrastructure program signed into law. And after that it hopes to implement a $1.7 trillion climate change program.

Inflation is already roaring. What do you think another $2-$4 trillion in money printing will unleash?

And bear in mind, that’s just the Federal Government. We’re not even accounting for the Fed here.

I’ll dive into that tomorrow.

In the meantime, if you’re concerned about inflation, we have published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation

Is Gold About To Rip Higher?

On Friday we outlined the strange price action in gold.

As a quick recap:

  1. Because we are in a fiat-based monetary regime, gold trades like any other asset.
  • Specifically, gold typically tracks “real rates” or the actual cost of money as illustrated by the difference between yields on Inflation Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities or TIPS and regular Treasuries).
  • Recently a massive divergence has developed between real rates and gold.

Regarding #3 in the list above, the divergence between the two items is quite large, which means either real rates need to come down, or gold needs to catch up.

Chart, histogram

Description automatically generated

I believe we will see gold begin it next leg up relatively shortly.

Why?

Because real rates usually lead gold on turns.

Let’s go back to the COVID-19 meltdown. Note that real rates (top box) bottomed a few days before gold did (bottom box). Real rates bottomed on March 12th, while gold bottomed on March 20th.

Chart

Description automatically generated

We saw this same dynamic play out again more recently in June of 2021 when real rates bottomed on the 17th of June (red circle) while gold didn’t bottom until the 29th (blue circle).

Chart, waterfall chart

Description automatically generated

This would suggest that real rates will in fact lead gold higher going forward. Again, real rates have been soaring while gold is struggling to ignite higher. The below chart suggests gold will eventually be running to $2,000 per ounce in the coming months.

Chart

Description automatically generated

What would trigger a run like this?

Inflation.

I’ll outline how and why in tomorrow’s article until then.

In the meantime, if you’re concerned about inflation, we have published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation

Why the Fed’s Bluff Will Cost Investors’ Trillions, Pt. 2


Yesterday I outlined how the Fed is extremely late to curb inflation. 

As a brief recap, it only took CPI clearing 5%, multiple signals that inflation is running hot, housing entering a bubble, stocks roaring to new all-time highs, and signs of frothiness including: someone sold a Non-Fungible Token (NFT) of a fart, crypto-currencies including ones that were designed as a joke exploding higher, etc.

Put simply, it only took an extreme level of frothiness as well as some of the worst inflation prints in decades for the Fed to decide it needed to do something. 

We’ve already assessed how the markets initially reacted to the Fed’s move. But now it’s time to digest what the Fed actually did.

Did it actually hike rates?

No. 

Did it actually taper QE?

No.

Did it do anything besides change inflation expectations?

No again.

The Fed has clearly decided it is willing to stomach higher inflation in the near-term to sustain the bubble in stocks/ recovering economy. However, with inflation expectations rising (within 10 minutes they recovered over two years’ worth of declines)…

 and Treasury yields getting dangerously close to breaking their long-term downtrend (see the chart below)…

… the Fed was forced to temper these expectations.

So, the Fed did what it does best… it made a verbal intervention.

But was the Fed really serious?

I can’t claim to be psychic in the sense that I can read Fed officials’ minds. What I can tell you is that I don’t think it’s coincidence that within 48 hours of stocks selling off:

1)    The Biden White House convened a meeting with the President’s Working Group (the so-called Plunge Protection Team).

2)    There will be SIXTEEN (16) Fed official appearances this week, the vast majority of which have been to issue dovish statements about how the market overreacted to the Fed and that the Fed is nowhere near thinking about tightening monetary policy. 

Since that time, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has appeared before Congress during which he stated:

  • Fed Will Wait for Actual Inflation as Trigger for Rate Rise
  • Fed Won’t Raise Rate Preemptively
  • 5% Inflation Is Not Acceptable (We’re old enough to recall the 2% threshold)
  • Inflation Effects from Reopening Larger Than Expected
  • High Inflation Temporary, Will Abate
  • Factors Weighing on Labor Supply Should Abate 
  • May Take Some Patience to See What Is Really Happening
  • Hard to Say When Supply Bottlenecks Will Disappear
  • Enhanced Unemployment Benefits May Be Factor
  • Expects to See Strong Job Creation in the Fall
  • ‘Very, Very Unlikely’ U.S. Will Suffer 1970s Inflation Experience

So… Powell is basically telling us the Fed is NOT going to act preemptively concerning inflation… that the Fed still believes inflation will disappear by itself… and that the Fed is in “watch and wait” mode.

Put another way, the Fed spooked bond yields into dropping, and until they start rising again, the Fed is happy to let things bubble up in the markets.

In this sense, what the Fed has done is move to curb future inflation expectations without actually doing anything. This in turn has pushed long-term bond yields back down again… which has opened the door to stocks roaring to even higher levels before crashing down in a spectacular crisis.

I’ll explain why in tomorrow’s article… until then.

In the meantime, we have published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research​

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation

Why the Fed’s Bluff Will Cost Investors’ Trillions, Pt. 1

So the Fed finally moved… but what precisely did it do?

After a full year of the most extreme monetary policy in history, including…

  1. Over 12 months of ZERO interest rate policy despite the economy growing.
  2. Over $3 trillion in money printing.
  3. Buying corporate bonds, muni bonds, corporate bond ETFs, Treasuries, Mortgage-Backed Securities Student Loans, Certificates of Deposit, etc.

…the Fed finally announced it is thinking about tightening monetary conditions.

It only took CPI clearing 5%, multiple signals that inflation is running hot, housing entering a bubble, stocks roaring to new all-time highs, and signs of frothiness including: someone sold a Non-Fungible Token (NFT) of a fart, crypto-currencies including ones that were designed as a joke exploding higher, etc.

Put simply, it only took an extreme level of frothiness as well as some of the worst inflation prints in decades for the Fed to decide it needed to do something. That something?

The Fed announced that intended to start tapering QE in late 2021/early 2022 while also potentially raising rates late in 2022/ early 2023.

Regardless of whether or not the Fed will actually do any of this (more on that in a moment), what matters for us today is how the market reacted to the Fed announcement.

Treasuries, particularly long-term Treasuries (20+ years) caught a major bid on the news.

The long-term Treasury ETF (TLT) jumped 4% in the span of a few days. This forced widespread liquidations at hedge funds in their short bond positions. And when hedge funds start liquidating losses, they often will liquidate winners as well to free up capital.

You can see this in the stock market when compared to TLT: they are a mirror image of one another (blue rectangle in the chart below) with stocks falling in near perfect synchronization as TLT rallied.

Chart

Description automatically generated

This suggests that the sell-off in stocks was collateral damage from the move in bonds, NOT necessarily a bearish development outright for stocks.

With all of this in mind, we need to take a look at what the bond market is currently doing for signs of where things are headed. Remember, it was Treasuries, that forced the Fed to act. And it was Treasuries that forced the sell-off in stocks last week.

So, what precisely did the Fed do?

We’ll address that in tomorrow’s article.

In the meantime, we have published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research​

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation

Stocks Are Preparing For a Major Breakout

Stocks continue to churn.

The S&P 500 has been in a consolidation phase since mid-April. Yes, we’ve had a few runs to new all-time highs, but as the below chart shows, most of the action has been sideways (see the blue box in the chart below).

Whenever markets enter a consolidation phase, the eventual breakout tends to be violent. And the longer the consolidation, the more violent the breakout.

Considered the last market consolation which took place from February through late March 2021. Stocks chopped back and forth in a significant box pattern before finally breaking out to the upside. They then ripped higher by 5% in the span of a little over a week.

Indeed, this has been the hallmark of this bull market since the March 2020 lows: stocks rip higher, then enter a six to eight week consolidation phase before breaking out to the upside again. I’ve identified the consolidation phases in blue boxes in the chart below. All of them resulted in breakouts to the upside.

With this in mind, I see no reason to overthink the current consolidation. Until the Fed begins to tighten monetary policy, it’s difficult to see a reason why stocks should collapse. It is clear the Fed has decided to let inflation run hot, and as I’ve outlined multiple times in the past, stocks initially LOVE inflation.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation

Three Charts Every Gold Investor Needs to See Right Now


Yesterday I noted that gold is telling us that the Fed is indeed going to let inflation run hot.

Remember, the Fed can stop inflation at any point by tightening monetary policy. If the Fed were to announce tomorrow that it is hiking rates 3% while ending its QE program, inflation would be DEAD.

With that in mind, the multi-trillion-dollar question over the last few months has been…

WILL the Fed act to stop inflation before it gets out of control?

I believe gold has finally given us the answer. It’s NOPE.

Gold has just broken out of a nine-month consolidation with conviction.

This is an extremely bullish development, particularly when you consider that gold had to break through both its 50-day moving average (DMA) and its 200-DMA to do this.

So, this begs the question… has gold finally bottomed? Because if it has… the upside target for that bull flag is north of $2,400 per ounce.

During major bull runs in gold, gold miners typically outperform the precious metal by a significant margin. The below chart shows the ratio between the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) and the price of gold bullion (GDX: $GOLD) 

When GDX outperforms gold, this line rises. And when GDX underperforms gold, this line falls. As you can see, since March of 2021, this line has been rising, which indicates GDX is outperforming gold by a significant margin.

Moreover, we have a clear rounded bottom (blue line in the chart above) forming here. 

That is a VERY bullish sign for this ratio. If it can break above resistance (red line in the chart above) then we have confirmation that THE bottom is in for gold.

When that happens, gold will begin its ascent higher to new all-time highs, eventually hitting north of $2,400 per ounce.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation

The Market Just Issued a MAJOR Warning of What’s to Come


Well, it’s confirmed, inflation is no longer just running hot… it is ROARING.

The Markit’s US Manufacturing PMI is a monthly survey that interviews managers in the private sector to see what they are experiencing in terms of business.

It’s widely considered to be one of the best gauges for the real state of the economy.

With that in mind the Markit’s US Manufacturing PMI for the month of May 2021 just revealed that the cost for input prices as well as new business at service providers have hit their highest levels since 2009. 

As one well known economist put it, average selling prices for goods and services are both rising at unprecedented rates, which will feed through to higher consumer inflation in coming months.”                                                                                                         

Remember, inflation doesn’t just appear overnight. Instead, it slowly works its way into the financial system in phases.

1)    Phase 1: Raw material price spikes

2)    Phase 2: Factory gate prices spikes

3)    Phase 3: Retail prices

The first stage occurs in the manufacturing/ production segment of the economy when you see producers suddenly paying more for the raw goods and commodities they use to manufacture/ produce finished goods.

We first hit this stage several months ago as the below chart illustrates. The price of raw materials such as copper, lumber and even gasoline are all up triple digits in the last 12 months.

Now, one or two months of higher commodities or raw goods is no big deal, but once you’re talking 6-8 months of steadily rising prices it’s significant. At that point manufacturers/ producers are forced to start raising the prices of finished goods or face shrinking profit margins.

The Markit’s US Manufacturing PMI has confirmed that we are now officially at this point, revealing that the prices managers are paying for goods are rising at unprecedented rates.

Put another way, managers at real businesses in the U.S. are seeing the prices they must pay to obtain commodities/ raw goods and services, rise faster than ever before!

Again, NEVER before in the history of this data set have prices exploded this rapidly.

This means inflation is now ROARING.

It also explains why gold has suddenly caught a bid,  exploding out of a nine-month downtrend.

The above chart is telling us that gold was confused as to whether or not the Fed to stop inflation for most of the last year.

No longer.

Gold is now telling us that the Fed is not going to stop inflation. It is telling us that inflation is here and only going to get worse.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation

Every Gold Investor Needs to See This


In yesterday’s article I noted that while stocks are clearly forming a top, there are, as of right now, ZERO signs that it is THE top.

Remember, the fact that inflation is running hot doesn’t mean stocks have to crash right now. During the last major bout of hot inflation in the 1970s, stocks roared higher for two years before they finally came crashing down. Throughout that time, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was clocking in over 3% if not 4%.

So, the fact CPI just hit 3% doesn’t mean stocks have to crash right here and now. And as we’ve assessed over the previous two days, unless the S&P 500 breaks below 4,000 on a monthly basis, things are risk-on.

But what about gold? What can we expect of it as inflation gets hotter and hotter?

The precious metal has been forming a clear bull-flag over the last nine months. As I write this, gold has just completed its third test of the top trendline.

This coincides with the 200-day moving average (DMA and red line) so gold faces a major challenged here. But with the 50-DMA turning up (blue line) momentum is building.

During bull runs, gold miners typically lead bullion and the gold miner ETF (GDX), has already broken above its 200-DMA.

If gold can follow, the upside for this breakout of the bull flag is an incredible 65 on GDX and $2450 on gold.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research


Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Central Bank Insanity, Inflation
The Fed Just Released Its Blueprint For How to Handle The Coming Inflationary Storm

The Fed Just Released Its Blueprint For How to Handle The Coming Inflationary Storm

Over the last few articles, we’ve outlined the following:

1)    Inflation first appeared in the financial system in August 2020 and has since accelerated.

2)    This has hurt Tech stocks in a big way, which is why they have collapsed. 

3)    The last two times inflation appeared in the financial system (2010-2011 and the 1970s, respectively), the Fed was forced to either engage in stealth tapering or outright monetary tightening. 

4)    Those Fed actions resulted in the broader stock market as represented by the S&P 500, falling 20% and 50% respectively. 

In light of all of this, what is going to happen to stocks this time around? Will inflation force the Fed to do a stealth taper… or will the Fed get aggressive?

Right now, the answer is truly astonishing… it’s NEITHER.

Indeed, going by recent Fed statements, the Fed is not interested in tightening monetary…at all.

In February, Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Fed said earlier this week that inflationary pressures are now “downward,” meaning inflation is disappearing. She also added it’s “not time to worry about inflation risks right now.” And that doing so would cost the economy jobs.

That same month, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren commented that inflation is not likely to hit the Fed’s target until 2022. He was followed by NY Fed President John Williams who told CNBC that rising prices are due to “optimism” about the growing economy.

Bear in mind, inflation was well above 3% in February already.

It’s tempting to simply argue that Fed officials are ignorant of the economic realities facing most Americans because they live in a bubble surrounded by other policymakers and bank officials from the top 0.1% of society.

However, we can put that view to rest since the Fed’s Beige Book, which serves as its primary source for what the real economy is doing, had the following statement in its March report, “businesses in most sectors expect fairly widespread increases in the prices they pay in the months ahead…

That was followed up in April Beige Book with: “Prices accelerated slightly since the last report, with many Districts reporting moderate price increases and some saying prices rose more robustly. Input costs rose across the board, but especially in the manufacturing, construction, retail, and transportation sectors—specifically, metals, lumber, food, and fuel prices.”

So… for the Fed to claim it doesn’t see inflation, would mean it is either willfully ignorant… or simply doesn’t even bother reading its own economic reports. 

Since those Beige Books were published time, one by one Fed officials have taken up the theme that inflation is indeed appearing, but it is “transitory.”

What the Fed means by this is that they don’t need to do anything because the inflation will disappear naturally as the U.S. economy continues to reopen.

A reopening economy means even greater demand being placed on the same supply chain issues/ rising commodity prices. Moreover, even if the economy remains weak, it’s not as though inflation will disappear by itself either (the stagflation of the 1970s proved that you can have both a recession AND high inflation simultaneously).

I cannot claim to read Fed officials’ minds, so I have no idea if they actually believe this nonsense. All I can say is that the Fed is embracing the narrative that inflation has arrived, but it’s too soon to act because said inflation is “transitory” and will disappear by itself. 

Indeed, most recently I’ve seen several Fed Presidents claim that inflation if rises above the Fed’s target of 2% (say to 2.75% or even 3%), it’s not a big deal.

Bear in mind, inflation is already well over 3% now.

So, what does this mean?

The Fed will continue to keep interest rates at zero, while printing $125 billion per month all while ignoring the countless signals that inflation is already spiraling out of control.

Which means… inflation is going to rage and rage.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research


Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation
The Inflationary Storm Has Finally Hit… Are You Ready?

The Inflationary Storm Has Finally Hit… Are You Ready?

I’ve been warning for weeks and weeks now that inflation was going to be a major problem for the financial system.

Yesterday we finally got a taste of it. The official inflation measure for the U.S., the Consumer Price Index (CPI), skyrocketed to 4.2% year over year. Core CPI, which is the most essential component, recorded a year over year jump of 3%.

That doesn’t sound much, but you need to consider the ENTIRE reason that CPI exists is so the government can DOWN-play inflation. There are endless gimmicks used to massage this number as low as possible.

For instance, the CPI…

  • Doesn’t include food or energy inflation, despite the fact those are two of the most necessary goods for consumers to survive.
  • Weighs the cost of goods and services geometrically instead of by their actual price.
  • Uses substitution or replaces items that it measures if they become too expensive.

And more!

Bottomline, the CPI is designed to HIDE inflation. And despite all of the gimmicks and games played by the government, the official inflation number still clocked in at 3%.

This is the highest core CPI since 1982.

To put that into perspective, at that time interest rates were at 19% as the Fed was desperately trying to control inflation.

This time around, the Fed has rates at ZERO while printing $125 billion in new money per month.

To make things even worse, the Fed is in complete denial that inflation even exists. Various Fed officials surfaced yesterday to argue that the spike in inflation is transitory i.e. the Fed doesn’t need to do anything about it.

The White House is also in denial about this problem, claiming that if “base effects” were removed, CPI would only be 2.1%. Bear in mind… as I stated a few paragraphs above, CPI has got dozens of gimmicks built into it to HIDE the real inflation levels.

So, we’ve got both the Fed and the White House in complete denial about this problem. Which means…

Inflation is going to rage and rage.

What does this mean for stocks?

I’ll explain all of that in tomorrow’s article.

In the meantime, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation

The Last Two Times This Hit, Stocks Dropped 20% and 50%, Respectively

Yesterday, I outlined how the rise in inflation has slammed Tech stocks lower.

By way of a quick review, Tech, as represented by the NASDAQ is highly sensitive to inflation on an inverse relationship: when inflation rises, Tech stocks collapse and when inflation falls, Tech stocks erupt higher.

The reason for this is that much of Tech investing is based on growth rates. And if bond yields rise as a result of inflation, bonds become more attractive as an investment, taking away from the appeal of Tech.

As I noted yesterday. as inflation entered the financial system in 2020 and began to accelerate in 2021, Tech stocks have struggled. You can see this in the chart below (red rectangle).

So, we know that Tech is going to struggle going forward as inflation heats up. But what about the broader market like the S&P 500? Will it collapse too?

To figure that out, let’s take a look at the last two inflationary scares in the U.S.

The most recent scare occurred in 2010-2011. At that time, the Fed was pretty quick on the uptake and decided to allow its QE 2 program (the cause of the inflationary spike) to end.

The Fed then waited several months before introducing any new monetary programs. And when it did introduce one, it didn’t involve money printing (instead the Fed used the proceeds from Treasury sales to buy long-date Treasuries through a process called Operation Twist). This was a kind of stealth tightening.

Stocks didn’t like this, collapsing nearly 20%.

 Bear in mind, that was a relatively minor inflationary scare. During the last legitimate inflationary storm in the 1970s-1980s.

During that mess, the Fed was forced to be MUCH more aggressive with its tightening, embarking on two aggressive tightening schedules. It’s worth noting that this triggered two SEVERE recessions (shaded areas).

This IMPLODED the stock market, resulting in a roughly 50% decline over the course of 18 months.

So, what will it be this time? Will the Fed engage in a stealth taper as was the case in 2011… or will it tighten monetary policy aggressively as it did in the 1970s and 1980s?

We’ll address that in our next article.

in the meantime, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation

Is Tech the Canary in the Coal-Mine For the Coming Inflationary Crisis?


The Tech Boom appears to be over.

From the March 2020 lows, Tech was a major leader in the markets. This makes a lot of sense as Tech was one of the few areas of the economy that continued to operate on a relatively normal basis during the COVID-19 shutdowns.

From the March 23, 2020 bottom until August, Tech, as represented by the NASDAQ index outperformed the broader S&P 500 by a wide margin.

However, since that time, Tech has struggled, moving roughly in line with the S&P 500 with the occasional bout of underperformance. This situation has worsened in 2021 with the S&P 500 taking the lead, leaving the NASDAQ in the dust.

What’s going on? 

What’s going on is that Tech is HIGHLY sensitive to inflation. And starting in August/ September 2020, inflation began to appear in the financial system courtesy of the Fed printing over $3 trillion while the U.S. government spent over $3 trillion in stimulus.

You can see this in the below chart. As soon as inflation began to accelerate in 2021, the yield on the 30-Year Treasury began to spike higher. And that’s when Tech started to tumble (red rectangle).

I wish that was the worst news, but it’s not. Yields continue to rise on Treasuries as inflation gets stronger in the financial system. By the look of things, the yield on the 30-year Treasury is about to break out to new highs in the next few weeks.

This is going to put a LOT of pressure on Tech, particularly high-beta momentum stocks like Tesla (TSLA), Shopify (SHOP), Square (SQ), and the like.

But what about the broader market? Will it collapse too? I’ll answer that in tomorrow’s article.

In the meantime, we

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research


Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation

How Will the Fed Deal With This Latest Bout of Inflation?

Yesterday I pointed out how inflation has become deeply embedded in our financial system.

As a quick recap, inflation arrives in stages. It’s not as though it appears overnight and suddenly the cost of everything rises.

Instead, inflation slowly works its way into the financial system in price hikes in the following prices.

  1. Phase 1: The price of raw materials (what producers/ manufactures pay for supplies)
  2. Phase 2: Factory gate prices (what producers charge distributors/retailers).
  3. Phase 3: Retail prices (what consumers pay).

As I noted yesterday, we now have all three of these in place. This tells us that inflation is now deeply embedded in our financial system.

Historically, the only thing that has stopped inflation is for the Fed to tighten monetary policy by either hiking interest rates or tapering its Quantitative Easing (QE) programs.

During the last inflationary scare in 2010-2011, the Fed allowed its QE 2 program to end. It then waited several months before introducing any new monetary programs. And when it did introduce one, it didn’t involve money printing (instead the Fed used the proceeds from Treasury sales to buy long-date Treasuries through a process called Operation Twist). This was a kind of stealth tightening.

Bear in mind, that was a relatively minor inflationary scare. During the last legitimate inflationary storm in the 1970s-1980s, the Fed was forced to be MUCH more aggressive with its tightening, raising interest rates from 4.5% to over 19%! It’s worth noting that this triggered two SEVERE recessions (shaded areas).

Chart, line chart

Description automatically generated

So, which will it be this time? A kind of stealth tapering like we saw in 2011… or aggressive tightening like we saw in the late 1970s?

The answer may surprise you… it’s NEITHER.

That’s correct. The Fed doesn’t believe the U.S. is experiencing real inflation yet. According to Fed Chair Jerome Powell the inflation we’re experiencing is “transitory” meaning it won’t last so the Fed doesn’t have to do anything.

Powell is not alone. Fed officials across the board have referred to inflation as “transitory” stating that even if inflation rises above the Fed’s target of 2% (say to 2.75% or even 3%), it’s not a big deal.

Bear in mind, inflation is already well over 3% now.

So, what does this mean?

The Fed will continue to keep interest rates at zero, while printing $125 billion per month all while ignoring the countless signals that inflation is already spiraling out of control. Yes, the Fed will eventually be forced to act once inflation becomes a political issue, but until then the Fed will have its “blinders” on.

Which means… inflation is going to rage and rage.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation
Warning: The Next Crisis is Just Around the Corner

Warning: The Next Crisis is Just Around the Corner


Get ready for a staggering admission.

If you add up all of the money the U.S. has ever printed… over 40% of it was printed in 2020 alone.

That is not a typo.

Patrick Bet-David pointed this out and he’s right: if you add up all of the money the U.S. ever printed since its founding… over 40% of it was printed last year. 

Bear in mind, we’re talking about money printing, NOT issuing credit or loans (the mechanism through which most “money” enters the system today). So, we’re talking about actual cash that goes into the economy.

As I keep emphasizing, when it comes to monetary policy and financial insanity, this time IS different. The amount of money printing policymakers used to fight the COVID-19 pandemic was unprecedented. It was BEYOND crazy.

Just how insane was all this money printing?

Investing legend Stanley Druckenmiller recently noted:

1)    In three months in 2020, the U.S. increased its deficit by more than it had during the past five recessions combined (’73, ’75, ’82, early ‘90s and Great Financial Crisis).

2)    Under Jerome Powell, the Fed bought more Treasuries in SIX WEEKS than it did in 10 years under Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen.

3)    Corporate borrowing, which usually drops during recessions actually INCREASED by $400 BILLION during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Again, this time IS different. And it’s going to unleash an inflationary storm that will annihilate portfolios and the real economy.

Indeed, the situation is so serious that former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers (no relation of mine) has stated that the Biden administration risks unleashing the worst inflation “in a generation.”

Bear in mind, Summers is a Democrat. So, he is not simply engaged in partisan politics here.

Again, an inflationary storm is coming. And it’s going to annihilate most investors.

Those who are properly prepared. however, will make literal fortunes.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

As I write this there are just 9 left.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation