It’s a Bull Market

Here’s Our Updated Market Forecast Based on Earnings So Far

By Graham Summers, MBA

The markets are now fully into earnings season.

The most critical companies to monitor are the MAG 7/ big tech plays. These are the largest companies in the S&P 500. Because of their size, they account for ~30% of the index’s weight.

Thus far, Tesla (TSLA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Alphabet (GOOGL) have reported. The results have been interesting.

TSLA reported on 1/24/24. The stock was down 10% on its results.

Last night, MSFT and GOOGL reported. MSFT is down about 0.5% while GOOGL is down over 5%. 

So, thus far two of the three MAG 7 have seen their stocks collapse a LOT on earnings results while one of is effectively flat. 

This doesn’t bode well for the broader market. It is VERY difficult for the S&P 500 to rally much at all if the MAG 7 plays are weak. Remember, these companies account for 30% of the market’s weight.

Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN) and Meta (META) report on Thursday. Nvidia (NVDA) reports on 2/21/24. If AAPL and META also sell-off on their results, it’s safe to assume the market will experience a decent correction.

From a technical analysis perspective, the S&P 500 has support just below 4,800. After that is CRITICAL support at 4,595. Given how the MAG 7 plays are responding to earnings, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a correction to 4,595 in the next two months.

This would represent a back-test of the Cup and Handle formation I showed yesterday. Bear in mind, a correction like this would NOT negate our longer term forecast for the S&P 500 to go to 6,000 before 2025. Rather, this correction is a short-term development and would present a fantastic buying opportunity.

If you’re looking for someone to guide your investing to insure you crush the market, you can sign up for our FREE daily market commentary, GAINS PAINS & CAPITAL.

As an added bonus, I’ll throw in a special report Billionaire’s “Green Gold” concerning a unique “off the radar” investment that could EXPLODE higher in the coming months. It details the actions of a family of billionaires who literally made their fortunes investing in inflationary assets. And they just became involved in a mid-cap company that has the potential to TRIPLE in value in the coming months.

To pick up your copy, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/GreenGold.html

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

Three Charts Every Trader Needs to See Today

By Graham Summers, MBA

Stocks aren’t taking a breather.

The S&P 500 is up nearly 150 points in just five sessions. This has been quite a move. And what’s truly extraordinary is that every intraday dip is being bought aggressively.

However, a word of caution here.

The S&P 500 is now 4% above its 50-Day Moving Average (DMA) and 9.8% above its 200-DMA. Over these last 18 months, any time the index has become this extended above its trend has resulted in a short term peak. So, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the S&P 500 correct down to back-test the recent breakout at 4,790.

After that, the door is open to 5,000 on the S&P 500. The Cup and Handle formation I outlined a few weeks ago has broken to the upside. Long-term (later in 2024) we are likely going MUCH higher.

For more market insights swing by https://gainspainscapital.com/

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

The Door is Now Open to 4,920 on the S&P 500

By Graham Summers, MBA

On November 28th, 2023, I predicted that stocks would hit new all-time highs before February 1, 2024.

Bear in mind, the S&P 500 was at 4,550 when I wrote this. So my prediction meant that the index would have to rally to over 4,818 (the former all-time high established January 3, 2022) in eight weeks’ time.

On Friday this happened, a full two weeks ahead of schedule. Anyone who followed our prediction made a killing!

So what happens now?

Stocks are now quite stretched to the upside. I anticipate we’ll see a drop to backtest this recent breakout at 4,800 sometime in the next 10 days. But after that, the door is open to a run to 4,920 by the end of 1Q24. That’s the upside target for the inverse Head and Shoulders pattern the S&P 500 has established in the last four weeks.

So, in the last seven months, we’ve predicted:

1) The S&P 500 to decline to 4,100s (when it was at 4,500).

2) The S&P 500 to rally from the 4,100s to 4,600 (when it was at 4,200).

3) The S&P 500 to hit new all-time highs before February 1st 2024(when it was at 4,550).

As I keep stating, you CAN outperform the overall market, but it takes a lot of work and insight!

If you’re looking for someone to guide your investing to insure you crush the market, you can sign up for our FREE daily market commentary, GAINS PAINS & CAPITAL.

As an added bonus, I’ll throw in a special report Billionaire’s “Green Gold concerning a unique “off the radar” investment that could EXPLODE higher in the coming months. It details the actions of a family of billionaires who literally made their fortunes investing in inflationary assets. And they just became involved in a mid-cap company that has the potential to TRIPLE in value in the coming months.

To pick up your copy, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/GreenGold.html

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

You Do NOT Want to Miss Out On This One

By Graham Summers, MBA

On December 20th 2023, I predicted that stocks would hit new all-time highs before February 2024. Despite all the drama in Washington as well as the geopolitical risk in the world, stocks are within spitting distance of doing this… and we’re only halfway through January.

The S&P 500 bounced hard off of support at 4,700. If the index closes this week even marginally higher, it will be at new all-time highs.

This is not our first accurate prediction for stocks. 

Throughout September and October of 2023, we warned clients that the S&P 500 was due for a pull back down to the 4,100s. Time and again, we warned our readers not to buy into the rally and to preserve their capital for an incredible buying opportunity that would soon hit.

And hit it did! And our readers “backed up the truck.”

Then, on November 2, when the S&P 500 was still at 4,200, we told clients to buy aggressively because the S&P 500 was going to 4,600 before year end. Remember, the S&P 500 had only just bottomed at 4,100 and we were predicting a 400 point move to hit in the span of eight weeks. So this was an EXTREMELY aggressive forecast. But our research backed it up and we trust our work!

The market then rallied to 4,600 in just four weeks! Those clients who followed our recommendation and loaded up on stocks at 4,100 made an absolute killing!

So, in the last seven months, we’ve predicted:

1) The S&P 500 to decline to 4,100s (when it was at 4,500).

2) The S&P 500 to rally from the 4,100s to 4,600 (when it was at 4,200).

3) The S&P 500 to hit new all-time highs before February (when it was at 4,600).

As I keep stating, you CAN outperform the overall market, but it takes a lot of work and insight!

If you’re looking for someone to guide your investing to insure you crush the market, you can sign up for our FREE daily market commentary, GAINS PAINS & CAPITAL.

As an added bonus, I’ll throw in a special report Billionaire’s “Green Gold concerning a unique “off the radar” investment that could EXPLODE higher in the coming months. It details the actions of a family of billionaires who literally made their fortunes investing in inflationary assets. And they just became involved in a mid-cap company that has the potential to TRIPLE in value in the coming months.

To pick up your copy, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/GreenGold.html

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

One of My FAVORITE Indicators for Timing the Market Is Flashing a Warning!

By Graham Summers, MBA

As I keep telling you, it IS possible to time the market. The key is to put in the work to do so.

For me, one of the best means of predicting stock market moves is to focus on “market leading” indicators, or assets that typically lead stocks to the upside and the downside during market turns.

One of my favorite such indicators is high yield credit, or junk bonds.

Bonds/ credit are senior to stockholders. If a company goes bust and needs to liquidate its assets, bond/ credit holders will be paid out long before stockholders see a dime. And generally speaking, bond investing is more sophisticated than stock investing largely due to bonds’ greater sensitivity to Fed policy, the economy, and more.

As a result of this, credit, particularly high yield credit, or credit for companies that are at a greater risk of going bust, typically leads stocks when it comes to pricing future risk on or risk off moves.

You can see this clearly in the following charts which depict the High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (red line) and the S&P 500 (black line). Sometimes the two assets move in tandem, but other times, credit leads stocks clearly to the point that you can accurately predict the next market move for stocks.

The first chart concerns the risk on move in assets that occurred from late 2022/ early 2023. At that time, HYG lead the market to the upside, rallying aggressively even when stocks would dip for a day or two. I’ve illustrated this with a purple rectangle below. Throughout that time period, the ongoing strength in HYG was a reliable indicator that the stock market would continue to rally.

Another example concerns the risk off move in assets that occurred from July 2023 through November 2023. During that period, high yield credit failed to confirm any rally in stocks, with the red line (credit) rolling over quickly even when the black line (stocks) bounced aggressively. I’ve illustrated this with a blue rectangle in the chart below.

So, what is high yield credit telling us about the future of the stock market today?

HYG is leading stocks to the downside, though it is doing so in a very controlled manner. Right now, HYG is suggesting that the S&P 500 will drop to 4,700 or so. Obviously this can change as things develop, but for now, HYG is telling us that any stock pullback should be relatively shallow.

As I keep stating, you CAN outperform the overall market, but it takes a lot of work and insight!

If you’re looking for someone to guide your investing to insure you crush the market, you can sign up for our FREE daily market commentary, GAINS PAINS & CAPITAL.

As an added bonus, I’ll throw in a special report Billionaire’s “Green Gold concerning a unique “off the radar” investment that could EXPLODE higher in the coming months. It details the actions of a family of billionaires who literally made their fortunes investing in inflationary assets. And they just became involved in a mid-cap company that has the potential to TRIPLE in value in the coming months.

To pick up your copy, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/GreenGold.html

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

Graham Summers’ Market Forecast For the Week of 1/2/24

By Graham Summers, MBA

Stocks are due for a pullback here. 

The S&P 500 is ~5% above its 50-Day Moving Average. Historically, this degree of extension above the primary trend has marked a temporary top. It doesn’t mean that stocks will collapse, rather is suggests the upside is limited and consolidation/ correction is the high probability scenario.

The question now is how deep the correction will be…

For that analysis we turn to bonds and the Fed.

The yield on the 2-Year U.S. Treasury has declined from 5.25% to 4.2% where it is now. This decline has been driven by the Fed pivot, in that the Fed will no longer be raising rates, but instead will begin cutting them in the near future.

 This will be a boon for stocks as this declining yield means:

1) Stocks will be priced at a higher future Earnings Per Share (EPS) multiple.

2) Money will begin to flow out of bonds and money market accounts into stocks as yields have peaked.

All of the above suggests that any and all dips in stocks will be relatively shallow. Put simply the coming decline is an opportunity to “buy the dip” in a new bull market. 

In terms of specific price points, the S&P 500 has major support at 4,700. I would be very surprised to see the market drop much below that level. The S&P 500 might decline into the upper 4,600s to “run the stops” for stock bulls, but a drop below 4,680 is unlikely.

For more market insights and analysis, join our free daily market commentary Gains Pains & Capital. You’ll immediately start receiving our Chief Market Strategist Graham Summers, MBA’s briefings to your inbox every morning before the market’s open.

And if you sign up today, you’ll also receive a special investment report How to Time a Market Bottom that the market set-up that has caught the bottoms after the Tech Crash, Housing Bust, and even the 2020 pandemic lows.

Even more importantly, you’ll find out what this trigger says about the market today!

This report usually costs $249, but if you join Gains Pains & Capital today, you’ll receive your copy for FREE.

To do so…

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Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

Did You Catch That Move Higher?

By Graham Summers, MBA

On Monday I told you that the S&P 500 was headed for 4,700. At that time, the market was hovering around 4,600. And given all the risks in the world (turmoil in the Middle East, slowing economic data in the U.S.), I’m sure many people thought I was bonkers to predict that stocks would continue higher.

Fast forward 48 hours and it looks as if the S&P 500 will hit my target before the week ends. As I write this, the S&P 500 futures are at 4,656.

The gains won’t stop there either. I believe the market will reach new all-time highs before February 1 2024. The former high was 4,818 set in October of 2022. I believe we’ll break that within six weeks’ time.

The long-term chart is clear… I’ll tell you what it portends tomorrow. But for now, here’s a hint.

As I keep stating, you CAN outperform the overall market, but it takes a lot of work and insight!

If you’re looking for someone to guide your investing to insure you crush the market, I’m your guy. Since 2015, subscribers of my Private Wealth Advisory have maintained a win rate of 74%.

Yes, we made money on three out of every four trades we closed.

Throughout this time, we completely OBLITERATED the S&P 500, returning over 200% compared the market’s 125%.

So you are looking for someone to help you profit from the markets… few analysts have the ability to navigate volatile markets like I do.

And I believe 2023 is going to be our best year yet!

To join us in turning the coming roller coaster into a source of life-changing profits, all you NEED to do is take out a 30-day $3.99 trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory.

A full SIX (6) MONTH subscription to Private Wealth Advisory includes:

Frankly, this is a ridiculous amount of material to offer for just $3.99…

Heck, the book alone is worth $9.99, and you’re getting FREE shipping on it!

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The doors close on this offer soon… don’t delay taking advantage of it!

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

Here’s the Breakout… Next Up is 4,700 on the S&P 500

By Graham Summers, MBA

Here comes the Santa Rally.

The S&P 500 has been trading in a 40-point range since mid-November. I know that sounds difficult to believe, but it’s true. For all the issues in the world (conflict in the Middle East, the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine,  economic data weakening in the U.S., political issues/ potential impeachment for the Biden administration), the stock market has gone nowhere.

See for yourself. I’ve illustrated this with a blue rectangle in the chart below. 

Having said that, the market DID reveal something MAJOR in the last month… but it’s what DIDN’T happen as opposed to what happened.

What didn’t happen?

Stocks didn’t break down.

In spite of all the issues and potential risks in the world right now, the bears couldn’t generate enough selling pressure to push stocks down more than 1%. And considering the market was EXTREMELY overbought going into this period, it REALLY suggests the bears are weak right now.

Which means…

The Santa rally is about to hit. Indeed, just last week, the market managed to break out of its trading range and stay there. I’ve illustrated this development with a purple circle in the chart below.

If stocks hold this today, then the door opens to a Santa rally that sees the S&P 500 hit 4,700 before year-end. Take out 4,600 on a weekly basis and you’ve got an opening to 100 points higher relatively quickly.

For more market insights and analysis, join our free daily market commentary Gains Pains & Capital. You’ll immediately start receiving our Chief Market Strategist Graham Summers, MBA’s briefings to your inbox every morning before the market’s open.

And if you sign up today, you’ll also receive a special investment report How to Time a Market Bottomthat the market set-up that has caught the bottoms after the Tech Crash, Housing Bust, and even the 2020 pandemic lows.Even more importantly, you’ll find out what this trigger says about the market today!This report usually costs $249, but if you join Gains Pains & Capital today, you’ll receive your copy for FREE. To do so…

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Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

This is How to Make Money From Today’s Market

By Graham Summers, MBA

Yesterday’s market action could not have illustrated the current market rotation any better.

As I recently outlined:

1) The S&P 500 is currently consolidating after one of its best monthly performances in 30 years.

2) This consolidation has consisted of large tech correcting while laggard sectors and indices (small caps/ the Russell 2000, industrials/ the Dow Jones Industrial Average) catch a bid.

Yesterday’s price action illustrated this perfectly: microcaps (the Russell 2000) caught a major bid relative to tech (the NASDAQ) as the Russell 2000 ROSE over 1% while the NASDAQ fell nearly 0.9%.

If you heeded yesterday’s missive you did quite well! Again, you CAN outperform the overall market, but it takes a lot of work and insight!

This trend is likely to play out over the next two weeks until the Russell 2000/ NASDAQ ratio reaches its 200-day moving average (DMA) sometime around the Fed’s next FOMC (December 12th-13th).

At that point the overall market should complete its consolidation/ correction and begin its next leg up. I’ve said previously that the S&P 500 will hit 5,000 sometime in the 1Q24. The setup is clear in the longer-term Cup and Handle formation.

For more market insights and analysis, join our free daily market commentary Gains Pains & Capital. You’ll immediately start receiving our Chief Market Strategist Graham Summers, MBA’s briefings to your inbox every morning before the market’s open.

And if you sign up today, you’ll also receive a special investment report How to Time a Market Bottom that the market set-up that has caught the bottoms after the Tech Crash, Housing Bust, and even the 2020 pandemic lows.Even more importantly, you’ll find out what this trigger says about the market today!This report usually costs $249, but if you join Gains Pains & Capital today, you’ll receive your copy for FREE.To do so…https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TMB.html

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

Here’s the Rotation and Then Comes New Highs

By Graham Summers, MBA

What comes next for stocks?

The S&P 500’s performance for the month of November 2023 was one of the best single month performances for stocks in the last 30 years. Stocks finished the month up 9.5%, a truly incredible return.

The big question is “what’s next for the markets?”

The answer is “rotation.”

Tech led the rally as Big Tech blasted higher throughout November while much of the rest of the market lagged behind. We are now seeing capital flowing into some of of the laggards, specifically small caps.

The ratio between the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 has been in a downtrend for most of 2023 as Tech stocks outperform small caps. We are now seeing a break of this downtrend to the upside as small caps finally catch a bid and Tech consolidates

This rotation is allowing overall breadth to improve as non-Tech stocks catch up to Tech leaders. You can see this clearly in the chart below in which breadth (red line) is catching up to the Tech sector (XLK).

After this rotation/ catch up is finished, stocks go to new all time highs. The Cup and Handle formation in the long-term chart for the S&P 500 is clear.

For more market insights and analysis, join our free daily market commentary Gains Pains & Capital. You’ll immediately start receiving our Chief Market Strategist Graham Summers, MBA’s briefings to your inbox every morning before the market’s open.

And if you sign up today, you’ll also receive a special investment report How to Time a Market Bottom that the market set-up that has caught the bottoms after the Tech Crash, Housing Bust, and even the 2020 pandemic lows.Even more importantly, you’ll find out what this trigger says about the market today!This report usually costs $249, but if you join Gains Pains & Capital today, you’ll receive your copy for FREE. To do so…

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TMB.html

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

Stocks Will Hit New All Time Highs Before February 1, 2024

By Graham Summers, MBA

The S&P 500 is consolidating after one of its best monthly performances in the last 30 years.

Thus far in November, the S&P 500 is up 8.5%. If the month ended today, it would be one of the top 10 monthly returns for the S&P 500 in the last 30 years. We rode this rally the entire way up, having told our clients to buy stocks aggressively when the S&P 500 was down at 4,200. Suffice to say, they’re quite happy.

And their #1 question today is: so what’s next for stocks?

The S&P 500 is quite overextended, having rallied to a level that is 4% above its 50-day moving average (DMA). Throughout the last 12 months, an extension of this magnitude above the 50-DMA has marked a temporary top for stocks.

The big question now is if stocks correct… or if they simply consolidate here, thereby allowing the 50-DMA to catch up to price, before the market make its next push higher. 

Thus far the market is opting for #2: consolidating. 

The S&P 500 has traded within a 20 point range since November 22nd. The key issue here as far as I’m concerned is that the bears have failed to push stocks down in any significant way, even though there was very low trading volume due to the Thanksgiving holiday.

Think of it this way… stocks are finalizing one of their most aggressive single month rallies  in 30 years, and the bears can’t even generate enough selling pressure to push the S&P 500 down 1%. 

This suggests that the next move for stocks will be up once this consolidation is over. And given that the market is less than 5% from its all-time highs, I believe we’ll see the S&P 500 hit NEW all-time highs some time in the first quarter of 2025, likely before February 1st, 2024.

For more market insights and analysis, join our free daily market commentary Gains Pains & Capital. You’ll immediately start receiving our Chief Market Strategist Graham Summers, MBA’s briefings to your inbox every morning before the market’s open.

And if you sign up today, you’ll also receive a special investment report How to Time a Market Bottom that the market set-up that has caught the bottoms after the Tech Crash, Housing Bust, and even the 2020 pandemic lows.

Even more importantly, you’ll find out what this trigger says about the market today!

This report usually costs $249, but if you join Gains Pains & Capital today, you’ll receive your copy for FREE.

To do so…

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Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

Yes, You CAN Time the Market… And I’ll Show You How!

By Graham Summers, MBA

Yesterday’s article caused quite a stir.

It is widely believed that you cannot time the market. This is a myth. You can time the market, but it takes a lot of work and knowledge.

Case in point, as I outlined in yesterday’s article, I accurately called for the S&P 500 to run to 4,600 back on November 2, 2023 when the market was still just at 4,200.

The S&P 500 hit a high an intraday high of 4,557 yesterday. Modesty aside, this was an incredible call, made within a few days of the market hitting its absolute lows before the rally.

This wasn’t luck either. 

Prior to this call, I had been warning clients for weeks that stocks would break down to the 4,100s on the S&P 500 and that this would be a MAJOR buying opportunity. Heck, the literal title to a research note to private clients on October 5th was “Bonds Stabilize… But I Expect a Final Flush for Stocks.”

What happened next is illustrated in the chart chart. Again, I called for the S&P 500 to drop to the 4,100s weeks in advance, then predicted the S&P 500 would run to 4,600 weeks within days of the market bottom in late October.

So my point remains the same: you CAN time the market, but it takes a lot of work and knowledge.

For more market insights and analysis, join our free daily market commentary Gains Pains & Capital. You’ll immediately start receiving our Chief Market Strategist Graham Summers, MBA’s briefings to your inbox every morning before the market’s open.

And if you sign up today, you’ll also receive a special investment report How to Time a Market Bottom that the market set-up that has caught the bottoms after the Tech Crash, Housing Bust, and even the 2020 pandemic lows.

Even more importantly, you’ll find out what this trigger says about the market today!

This report usually costs $249, but if you join Gains Pains & Capital today, you’ll receive your copy for FREE.

To do so…

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Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

How We Called the Santa Rally Week’s Before Anyone Else

By Graham Summers, MBA

The following are excerpts from my Private Wealth Advisory market update to private clients written on 11-2-23. At that time the S&P 500 was trading in the 4,200s. It’s at 4,531 today.

The door is open to a Santa Rally to 4,600 or even higher on the S&P 500.

Why?

The Treasury just removed the single largest concern for stocks for the remainder of the year.

As I’ve noted previously, one of the most difficult aspects of stock market investing is that the market is a discounting mechanism for millions, if not billions, of pieces of information. The stock market represents the collective decisions of millions of individuals all of whom are thinking about a myriad of data points/ issues… and all of whom have literal money on the line.

However, out of all the millions or billions of pieces of information that the market is discounting at any given time, it typically only really cares about two or three issues at a time. 

Sometimes it’s inflation. Other times it’s what the President is doing (or tweeting). Other times it’s China. Other times it’s what the Fed is doing or about to do. Other times it’s the economy. And so on and so forth.

What makes things even more difficult is the fact that the market changes its focus all the time. It might be really focused on inflation for a few weeks only to then ignore inflation for months on end. Similarly, the market might go weeks without acknowledging anything Fed officials say, only to then care a great deal about a single statement made by a single Fed official during an hour-long Q&A session.

I bring all of this up, because since late-July/ early-August 2023, the #1 thing the market has cared about has been the size of the Treasury’s long-duration debt issuance…

On July 31st 2023, the Treasury announced its financing needs for the third quarter (July through September). The Treasury announced it would:

1)    Need to borrow $274 billion more than previously expected.

2)    Increase its issuance of longer duration Treasury bonds for the first time since 2021.

Regarding #2, the actual increase in dollar terms of long duration bonds that the Treasury needed to issue was relatively small ($102 billion vs. $96 billion). However, the fact that there was increase in long duration issuance, combined with the increase in total debt issuance ($274 billion) was a surprise.

And the bond markets HATE surprises.

Since that time, bond investors have been dumping ALL long duration bonds. This has resulted in long-term Treasury yields rising (bond yields rise when bond prices fall). And because the stock market is priced based on long-duration Treasury yields, this has meant a sell-off in stocks.

The chart bel shows the yield on the 10-Year U.S. Treasury and the S&P 500 from the last QRA announcement on July 31st 2023 until last week. As you can see, the two items have been moving in lockstep.

Which brings us to this week (week of 10-30-23).

On Monday the 30th of October, the Treasury issued its QRA for the fourth quarter of 2023. It surprised the markets (in a good way) by stating that it would borrow only $776 billion (this was $76 billion less than previously expected).

Then, on Wednesday (11-1-3), the Treasury released its Report to the Secretary of the Treasury from the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee.

In it, the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee wrote the following (emphasis added)

The Committee supported meaningful deviation from the historical recommendation for 15-20% T-Bill share. While most members supported a return to within the recommended band over time, the Committee noted that the work Treasury has done to meaningfully increase WAM over the past 15 years affords them increased flexibility with T-Bill share in the medium term.

Source: Treasury.gov

As I explained to clients in the remainder of this market update, the decision of the Treasury to rely extensively on short-term T-bills to finance the deficit would ignite a “risk on” rally that will likely last into year-end.

Since that time, the S&P 500 has done this:

For more market insights and analysis, join our free daily market commentary Gains Pains & Capital. You’ll immediately start receiving our Chief Market Strategist Graham Summers, MBA’s briefings to your inbox every morning before the market’s open.

And if you sign up today, you’ll also receive a special investment report How to Time a Market Bottom that the market set-up that has caught the bottoms after the Tech Crash, Housing Bust, and even the 2020 pandemic lows.

Even more importantly, you’ll find out what this trigger says about the market today!

This report usually costs $249, but if you join Gains Pains & Capital today, you’ll receive your copy for FREE.

To do so…

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TMB.html

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market
The Bears Failed, Again… So What’s Next For the Markets?

The Bears Failed, Again… So What’s Next For the Markets?

By Graham Summers, MBA

Try as they might, the bears simply couldn’t get it done last week. 

The S&P 500 spent a few days chopping around its 200-day moving average (DMA) before spiking higher on Friday. Much of this late week rally was short covering, but the fact remains that sellers simply didn’t have what it took to push stocks any lower.

Indeed, the biggest news as far as stocks were concerned was the fact that the tech-heavy NASDAQ simply refused to take out support at 13,000. 

Tech is a long-duration sector of the market… meaning it is heavily influenced by long duration bonds. The reason for this is that your typical tech start-up will take years before it brings a product or service to market and starts generating cash flow. So when you’re modeling a tech company’s future cash flows, you need to be thinking five years out or more. This means comparing a tech company’s future earnings against what you’d earn from owning a risk-free U.S. Treasury over the same time period.

Simply put, the tech sector is heavily influenced by what long-duration bonds do… which is why it’s truly astonishing that the NASDAQ has refused to break down despite the fact the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury spiked to new highs. The fact that stock market bears failed to crush tech is really quite bullish and a significant “tell” for the markets.

With all of this in mind, it’s quite possible stocks bottomed last week or will bottom this one. I remain concerned about a number of risks to the markets, but we have to respect price action. And price action tells us that stocks are strong in spite of many issues. 

For more market insights and analysis, join our free daily market commentary Gains Pains & Capital. You’ll immediately start receiving our Chief Market Strategist Graham Summers, MBA’s briefings to your inbox every morning before the market’s open. Since 2015, Graham has shown investors a win rate of 75% meaning they made money on three out of every four positions closed.

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Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

Stocks Bounce…But Is the Bottom In?

By Graham Summers, MBA

Bonds finally bounced yesterday. However, the bounce was relatively weak and didn’t signal the “all clear.”

Simply put, things stabilized. But they didn’t actually improve much. And market leading indicators suggest this correction isn’t over yet.

High yield credit typically leads stocks both the upside and the downside. It bottomed weeks before stocks did in October 2022. And right now, it’s telling us the S&P 500 could easily go to 4,100.

Breadth is another market leading indicator I watch. And it is also telling us stocks are not finished falling just yet. Again, I don’t trust this bounce in stocks at all.

Again, the long-end of the Treasury market has completely collapsed. Banks and financial entities are sitting on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of losses. As I keep warning, the Great Debt Crisis of our lifetimes is fast approaching. The time to prepare is NOW, before it hits.

As I keep warning, the Great Debt Crisis of our lifetimes is fast approaching. The time to prepare is NOW, before it hits.

I’ve identified a series of market events that unfold before every crash.

I detail them, along with what they’re currently saying about the market today in a Special Investment Report How to Predict a Crash.

Normally this report would be sold for $249. But we are making it FREE to anyone who joins our Daily Market Commentary Gains Pains & Capital.

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/predictcrash.html

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

The Selling Might Be Done For Now

By Graham Summers, MBA

Tech looks due for a bounce.

The Tech ETF (XLK) is at major support at $166. Even if this is not THE low, it’s a decent spot for a bounce as XLK rallies to $175 or so as it carves out a potential right shoulder in a Head and Shoulders pattern.

Moreover, the yield on the 10-Year U.S. Treasury is at major resistance. 

Tech is a long-duration play, meaning it is heavily affected by the yield on longer-term Treasuries. The odds of the yield on the 10-Year U.S. Treasury breaking above its current levels right here and now are not high. This suggests the next move for this yield would be down, which would alleviate some of the pressure on tech stocks.

Given that the S&P 500 is heavily weighted towards tech (the sector accounts for 28% of the index’s weight) all of the above items suggest a bounce in tech and the broader market here. Again, this is just a short-term idea.

In the big picture however, my proprietary Bull Market Trigger is about to register its first “buy” in over a decade.

This signal has only registered TWO times in the last 25 years: in 2003 and 2010. And it’s close to registering a new signal today,

If you’ve yet to take steps to prepare for invest accordingly, we have published an exclusive special report How to Time a Market Bottom.

It details the my proprietary bull market trigger, how stocks have performed following prior signals, and what it is stating right now.

Normally this report would be sold for $249. But we are making it FREE to anyone who joins our Daily Market Commentary Gains Pains & Capital.

To pick up your copy, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TMB.html

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Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

Ignore the Noise, This is the Framework For the Markets Today

By Graham Summers, MBA

Nothing has changed in the U.S. in the last month.

The primary framework for investing in the U.S. is as follows:

1)    The stock market is bubbling up due to:

a.     There being too much liquidity in the financial system.

b.    Inflation, particularly core inflation remains elevated (4.8%).

c.     Stocks are a better inflation hedge that bonds or cash.

2)    The U.S. economy isn’t growing rapidly, but it’s not contracting either.

a.     The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now metric shows economic growth of 2.4%. 

b.    The Federal government is running its largest deficit as a percentage of GDP in history outside of wartime/ a recession. Much of this deficit is going towards social programs and stimulus measures. 

c.     Social spending and economic stimulus measures will continue if not increase as we head into the 2024 Presidential election. 

d.    The recent debt ceiling deal removes all spending caps through the 2024 election.

Put simply we are in a situation in which nothing is going great, but pretty much everything is going OK. Inflation remains high, but it has come down from its peak. The economy is still growing, albeit at a sub-3% pace. And there is ample liquidity in the financial system.

All of this is generally “risk on” for the markets… which means this situation will continue until something significant breaks. This doesn’t mean that stocks won’t correct or ever fall in price again. But it does mean that we are likely in a new bull market and that things will continue to be in “risk on” mode until something major breaks. 

Regarding the potential for a recession, the yield curve, particularly the all-important 2s10s (what you get when you subtract the yield of the 2-Year U.S. Treasury from the yield of the 10-Year U.S. Treasury) remains extremely inverted.

This has predicted every recession since 1955. However, the actual recession doesn’t hit until this dis-inverts, meaning it moves back into positive territory. And as the below chart shows, it can take months if not years for the yield curve to dis-invert once it becomes inverted.

Put simply, until this chart moves back into positive territory, this is just a warning that a recession is coming eventually. Nothing more.

So again, there are red flags in the financial system today, but these are warnings not signals that it’s time to get REALLY bearish. The purpose of investing is to make money, not miss out on gains because of a warning. So we ride this bull run for as long as we can until it ends.

Indeed, my proprietary Bull Market Trigger is about to register its first “buy” in over a decade.

This signal has only registered TWO times in the last 25 years: in 2003 and 2010. And it’s close to registering a new signal today,

If you’ve yet to take steps to prepare for invest accordingly, we have published an exclusive special report How to Time a Market Bottom.

It details the my proprietary bull market trigger, how stocks have performed following prior signals, and what it is stating right now.

Normally this report would be sold for $249. But we are making it FREE to anyone who joins our Daily Market Commentary Gains Pains & Capital.

To pick up your copy, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TMB.html

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Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market
Buckle Up, What You’re About to See Isn’t Pretty

Buckle Up, What You’re About to See Isn’t Pretty

By Graham Summers, MBA

Last week I noted that the U.S. is becoming an emerging market.

By quick way of review:

1) Many of the most important institutions in the U.S. now exhibit a level of corruption that is normal for banana republics. We now see these institutions doing everything from interfering in elections to arresting political opponents and more. The individuals who do this are not punished, if anything they given book deals and TV slots.

2) The U.S. no longer has a clear rule of law. Those with the correct political leanings and connections can avoid jail time for serious crimes, even treason. Meanwhile, those on the other side of the political spectrum are given lengthy sentences for minor transgressions. 

3) The U.S. economy is no longer a manufacturing/ industrial leader. Decades of outsourcing have gutted the middle class resulting in the kind of wealth disparities you usually see in emerging markets. American children dream of becoming influencers or social media personalities instead of business owners or innovators.

It’s enough to make you sick. 

Indeed, the “U.S. is an emerging market” theme was on full display last week when our Secretary of the Treasury, Janet Yellen, arguably the most important financial figure in our country, and the person in charge of managing the U.S. dollar/ financial system, groveled in front of China’s Vice Premiere He Lifeng during her visit to China

Ms. Yellen bowed repeatedly to the Vice Premiere, groveling much as an emerging market financial official would kowtow to his or her counterpart from a more developed, superior nation upon which the former’s nation relied for aid/ support/ assistance.

See for yourself. And mind you, this is one of NUMEROUS bows.

Again, this is the thing of emerging markets. And the fact that the person who manages our finances and currency is this incompetent/ embarrassing illustrates clearly just how far the U.S. has sunk.

The only good thing that will come from this is that if you know how to invest in emerging market regimes, you can stand to make a fortune in the coming years.

Indeed, this kind of tectonic shift represents a “once in a lifetime” opportunity. Some investments are going to produce fortunes. Others will lose money for years… if not decades. And those investors who are positioned correctly for this will thrive while others struggle.

We recently outlined a unique “of the radar” investment that will outperform in this new economic landscape in an investment report called Billionaire’s “Green Gold.”

It details the actions of a family of billionaires who literally made their fortunes investing in emerging markets. And they just became involved in a mid-cap company that has the potential to TRIPLE in value in the coming months.

Normally this report would be sold for $249. But we are making it FREE to anyone who joins our Daily Market Commentary Gains Pains & Capital.

To pick up your copy, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/GreenGold.html

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

Please, Whatever You Do, Don’t Fall For This!

By Graham Summers, MBA

In the last two days, I’ve addressed two major piles of economic BS… the jobs data from January… and the inflation data.

By quick way of review…

1) The reason the U.S. economy supposedly “added” 500,000+ jobs in January was due to an accounting gimmick, NOT because those jobs were actually created.

2) The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) openly admits this, citing that without its “population control effect” the economy added… 84,000 jobs.

3) The only part of the inflation data that has dropped has been in Energy prices. 

4) The reason Energy prices dropped was because the Biden administration dumped over 250 MILLION barrels of oil in the last two years.

Today we’re addressing a new pile of BS… the January retail sales.

In case you missed it, January’s retail sales were fantastic, up 3% month over month.

Even more incredibly all 13 retail categories rose month over month. This is the first time this happened since the economy emerged from the depths of the pandemic shutdowns.

The economy must be roaring right!

WRONG.

The retail sales were NOT adjusted for inflation.

Inflation is somewhere between 6.4% and 9% depending on the data you track.

So the retail sales were actually NEGATIVE when you account for inflation. Or put simply, this supposed retail “growth” was all due to the prices of things rising.

Think of it this way.

Let’s say your boss gives you a 10% raise. Now let’s say that inflation is also 10%. 

Did you really get a raise?

No… your income is precisely where it was before relative to your cost of living.

THAT’s what is happening in retail. Everythings costs more… so the sales look stronger.

If you don’t believe me, consider the below chart of credit card debt. Americans are maxing out their credit cards…

While eating into their savings…

Put simply, the retail numbers were total BS. Americans are spending more just to get by because of inflation… not because the economy is booming.

And yet… investors are buying stocks based on this BS!

Oh… and by the way… our proprietary Bear Market Trigger… the one that predicted the Tech Crash as well as the Great Financial Crisis… is on a confirmed SELL signal for the first time since 2008.

If you’ve yet to take steps to prepare for what’s coming, we just published a new exclusive special report How to Invest During This Bear Market.

It details the #1 investment to own during the bear market as well as how to invest to potentially generate life changing wealth when it ends.

To pick up your FREE copy, swing by:

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Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

Has Inflation Finally Peaked? Let’s Take a Look…

By Graham Summers, MBA

The markets have reached a new level of stupidity.

Stocks are exploding higher based on inflation coming in at 7.1% Year over Year. This is apparently great news because Wall Street expected the number to be somewhere between 7.2% and 7.6%.

So, according to those buying stocks today,  a 0.1% “beat” on an inflation number that is still north of 7% despite the Fed implementing its most aggressive rate hike cycle in 40 years in is a reason to panic bid stocks higher.

Looking through the numbers, almost the entire drop came courtesy of falling energy prices and used cars. I might add that the drop in energy is not surprising given that the Biden administration drained the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) by ~180 million barrels of oil. Practically everything outside of energy and used car prices is still rising.

Elsewhere in the report, core inflation, which the Fed looks at closely is still at 6%. Sure, it’s not spiking any higher, but this it’s not coming down much either. Again, this is good in a way, but is it a reason to panic buy stocks like inflation is gone? I don’t think so.

Unfortunately for those who are panic buying stocks today, the bear market is NOT over. With a recession just around the corner, stocks will soon collapse to new lows.

If you’ve yet to take steps to prepare for this, we just published a new exclusive special report How to Invest During This Bear Market.

It details the #1 investment to own during the bear market as well as how to invest to potentially generate life changing wealth when it ends.

To pick up your FREE copy, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/BM.html

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market