Monthly Archive:: December 2017

If Inflation is Too Low… Why is the US Dollar Collapsing?

Did you know inflation is too low? I didn’t. And neither does the $USD. The greenback is down almost 10% this year and is about to end 2017 with its largest loss in over a decade. Bear in mind, the $USD is collapsing at this pace DESPITE the Fed raising rates three times in 2017.

The True Consequence of Ending the Gold Standard (In One Chart)

The single most important chart for understanding the current state of the US financial system is the following: US Gross Domestic Product vs. US Total Debt Securities,                                                                           

This Is The Single Most Important Chart For the US Financial System

The single most important chart for understanding the current state of the US financial system is the following: US Gross Domestic Product vs. US Total Debt Securities,                                                                           

More Evidence That Stocks Are in a 1999-Type Mania

It is clear stocks are in a massive bubble based on their Price to Sale (P/S valuation). What about the economy? Warren Buffett once famously stated that his favorite means of valuing stock was the stock market capitalization to GDP ratio. Below is a chart for this metric. As you can see, the stock market

Warren Buffett’s Favorite Indicator Just Flashed a Major Warning

It is clear stocks are in a massive bubble based on their Price to Sale (P/S valuation). What about the economy? Warren Buffett once famously stated that his favorite means of valuing stock was the stock market capitalization to GDP ratio. Below is a chart for this metric. As you can see, the stock market

Stocks Are So Bubbly Even Fed Officials Have Caught On

The Fed raised rates another 0.25% the week before last. This marks the 5th rate hike since the Fed embarked on its policy tightening in December 2015 and the fourth rate hike in the last 12 months. The Fed’s latest statement also indicates it plans on raising rates three more times in 2018. It is

Bubble Watch: The Fed KNOWS We’re in a 1999-Type Mania…

The Fed raised rates another 0.25% the week before last. This marks the 5th rate hike since the Fed embarked on its policy tightening in December 2015 and the fourth rate hike in the last 12 months. The Fed’s latest statement also indicates it plans on raising rates three more times in 2018. It is

Bubble Watch: Central Banks Are Planning $1+ Trillion in QE in 2018

If you wanted more evidence that Central Banks will stop at nothing to induce inflation, consider that yesterday Bank of Japan stated that it will continue with its QE program and with negative rates for as long as it takes to achieve 2% inflation. Mind you, Japan’s economy has just posted its SEVENTH straight quarter

Will QE Prove the Needle That Bursts the Bond Bubble in 2018?

If you wanted more evidence that Central Banks will stop at nothing to induce inflation, consider that yesterday Bank of Japan stated that it will continue with its QE program and with negative rates for as long as it takes to achieve 2% inflation. Mind you, Japan’s economy has just posted its SEVENTH straight quarter

Is the Bond Market About to Call the Fed’s Inflationary Bluff?

Perhaps the single biggest development this year, as far as the markets were concerned, was the Fed admitting on the record that it has no idea what is going on with inflation. This represents a kind of endgame for the Fed. Since the early ‘80s, the Fed has been actively understating inflation via a variety

Inflation Watch: The Most Important Bond Yield in the World is RISING

The bond market is talking, but no one is listening. As I explain in my bestselling book The Everything Bubble: the Endgame For Central Bank Policy, the yield on the 10-Year US Treasury bond is the single most important interest rate in the financial system. This is the “risk free” rate of return… the rate

The Most Important Rate in the World Just Broke a 20-Year Trendline

The bond market is talking, but no one is listening. As I explain in my bestselling book The Everything Bubble: the Endgame For Central Bank Policy, the yield on the 10-Year US Treasury bond is the single most important interest rate in the financial system. This is the “risk free” rate of return… the rate

What Happens to the Bond Bubble As Inflation Spikes Above 3%

While the Fed Board of Governors continues with its “we don’t see inflation anywhere” shtick, one of its own in-house measures (the underlying inflation gauge or UIG) is about to hit 3%. The UIG estimated on the “full data set” increased from a revised 2.91% in October to 2.95% in November. Source: the NY Fed.

The Fed’s Own “In-House” Inflation Metric is Already Clocking 3%

While the Fed Board of Governors continues with its “we don’t see inflation anywhere” shtick, one of its own in-house measures (the underlying inflation gauge or UIG) is about to hit 3%. The UIG estimated on the “full data set” increased from a revised 2.91% in October to 2.95% in November. Source: the NY Fed.

Warning: Real Inflation is Already 3%… and the Fed Wants More!

While the Fed Board of Governors continues with its “we don’t see inflation anywhere” shtick, one of its own in-house measures (the underlying inflation gauge or UIG) is about to hit 3%. The UIG estimated on the “full data set” increased from a revised 2.91% in October to 2.95% in November. Source: the NY Fed.

Three Charts That SCREAM “Inflation” In 2018

The financial system is preparing for an inflationary shock. The single best means of measuring inflation vs deflationary forces in the US financial system is the TIP to Long-Treasury (TLT) ratio. When this ratio rallies the system is predicting inflation. When it falls, the system is fearing deflation. Running back to 2010, we’ve been in

This 8-Year Mega-Trend is About to End (Big Gains Ahead!)

The financial system is preparing for an inflationary shock. The single best means of measuring inflation vs deflationary forces in the US financial system is the TIP to Long-Treasury (TLT) ratio. When this ratio rallies the system is predicting inflation. When it falls, the system is fearing deflation. Running back to 2010, we’ve been in

What Happens to the $200 TRILLION Bond Bubble When Rates Normalize?

I believe 2018 will be the year inflation arrives. The reason, as I’ve noted throughout mid-2017, is that multiple Central Banks, particularly the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Swiss National Bank (SNB) have maintained emergency levels of QE and money printing, despite the fact that globally the economy is performing relatively

Inflation is Spiking Globally… Bond Bubble Bursts in 3… 2…

I believe 2018 will be the year inflation arrives. The reason, as I’ve noted throughout mid-2017, is that multiple Central Banks, particularly the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Swiss National Bank (SNB) have maintained emergency levels of QE and money printing, despite the fact that globally the economy is performing relatively

Bubble Watch: Warning Signs That The Everything Bubble Will Burst in 2018

I believe 2018 will be the year inflation arrives. The reason, as I’ve noted throughout mid-2017, is that multiple Central Banks, particularly the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Swiss National Bank (SNB) have maintained emergency levels of QE and money printing, despite the fact that globally the economy is performing relatively
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