ZIRP

16
Nov
2015

The Fed is Now Flirting With NIRP… But That Won’t Be Its Worst Policy

The War on Cash is now accelerating.

As the financial system lurches towards collapse, the elites and those who derive power from sitting at the top of the food chain are growing increasingly desperate to maintain the status quo.

When 2008 hit, the Fed cut rates to zero and began implementing QE. It has now maintained ZIRP for six years (the single longest period in history) and has grown its balance sheet by over $3.5 trillion (larger than most countries).

ZIRP has made no sense whatsoever since 2011. You cannot continue to babble about a “recovery” when ZIRP is in place. No legitimate “recovery” in economic history required ZIRP four years into a new business cycle.

Moreover, QE was known to be a Wall Street bailout and an economic dud as early as 2010. The man who ran QE 1 admitted the former in an op-ed piece. And anyone who’s examined Japan’s multi-decade, multi-Trillions of Yen QE failures knows the latter.

Despite this, the Fed ran QE ran through 2014 printing another $2 trillion in the process. That is correct, the Fed had rates at zero and was printing over $85 billion per month SIX years into a “recovery.”

With the US now back in recession and another financial crisis at our doorstep, the calls are going up for even more dramatic measures.

Multiple Fed Presidents have called for NEGATIVE interest rate policy (NIRP) in the US. Obviously these “date driven” individuals haven’t bothered to examine the fact that in Europe, NIRP didn’t accomplish ANYTHING as far as inflation targets were concerned.

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The ECB implemented NIRP in June 2014. Europe’s inflation rate actually COLLAPSED in the six months following it, resulting in the ECB announcing QE. THAT policy (the first in Europe’s history) generated five months’ worth of uptick in inflation before rolling over again.

euro-area-inflation-cpi-2Somehow the Fed missed this when it began calling for NIRP in the US. Even more amazingly, no one has bothered to ask the Fed why six years into this “recovery” the Fed is even discussing NIRP. ZIRP was a disaster. Why would NIRP fix anything?

NIRP will not be the last straw either. If the markets begin the truly collapse, the Fed will likely announce another, even larger QE program. That is precisely what Japan did in April 2013 despite the clear evidence that its previous EIGHT QE programs had failed to accomplish anything of note.

But even NIRP and QE will likely not be the Fed’s worst atrocity against capital formation. Before it’s all said and done, the Fed will likely push to either implement a carry tax on physical cash OR ban physical cash entirely.

This will eventually result in a stock market crash, very likely within the next 12 months… and smart investors would do well to prepare now before it hits.

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Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market
04
Nov
2015
The War on Cash is Real

The War on Cash is Real

Stocks have rallied over the last 10 days in part by ECB President Mario Draghi’s statement that if push comes to shove, the ECB will push interest rates even further into negative territory (NIRP).

This represents just another round in the War on Cash, first implemented by the Central Banks in 2008.

It’s a little known fact that the cause for the gut-wrenching collapsing in late September-October 2008 was due to a significant portion of investors trying to move their money out of money market funds.

A money market fund takes investors’ cash and plunks it into short-term highly liquid debt and credit securities. These funds are meant to offer investors a return on their cash, while being extremely liquid (meaning investors can pull their money at any time).

This works great in theory… but when $500 billion in money was being pulled (roughly 24% of the entire market) in the span of four weeks, the truth of the financial system was quickly laid bare: that digital money is not in fact safe.

Remember, the bulk of money in the financial system is digital.

  • The total currency (actual cash in the form of bills and coins) in the US financial system is a little over $1.36 trillion.
  • When you include digital money sitting in short-term accounts and long-term accounts then you’re talking about roughly $10 trillion in “money” in the financial system.
  • In contrast, the money in the US stock market (equity shares in publicly traded companies) is over $20 trillion in size.
  • The US bond market (money that has been lent to corporations, municipal Governments, State Governments, and the Federal Government) is almost twice this at $38 trillion.
  • Total Credit Market Instruments (mortgages, collateralized debt obligations, junk bonds, commercial paper and other digitally-based “money” that is based on debt) is even larger $58.7 trillion.
  • Unregulated over the counter derivatives traded between the big banks and corporations is north of $220 trillion.

The Central Banks like it this way because they can regulate and control digital money much more easily than physical money. Moreover, as the 2008 money market fund collapse revealed, if a significant percentage of investors ever moved to shift their wealth into physical cash it could implode the financial system.

For this reason, the Central Banks are slowly pushing to implement reforms that will either tax physical cash or ban it all together.

The first round of this involved implementing NIRP (negative interest rate policy), which is a form of stealth tax as it charges depositors for sitting in cash.

However, things are getting more aggressive. France just banned any transaction over €1,000 Euros from using physical cash. Spain has already banned transactions over €2,500. Uruguay has banned transactions over $5,000.

Aside from actually banning physical cash, some public services are no longer accepting cash as payments.

Last summer, London buses stopped accepting money. To pay your fare, you now have to wave either a prepaid Transport for London Oyster card or a contactless payment bank card at a receiver. For some, not having to dig out a handful of coins is a welcome relief.

Source: Bloomberg View

Make no mistake, the War on Cash is very real. And it’s unfolding before our very eyes.

Indeed, we’ve uncovered a secret document outlining how the Feds plan to take hold of savings during the next round of the crisis to stop individuals from getting their money out.

We detail this paper and outline three investment strategies you can implement right now to protect your capital from this sinister plan in our Special Report

Survive the Fed’s War on Cash.

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Best Regards

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market
02
Nov
2015
Are Border and Capital Controls Coming to the US?

Are Border and Capital Controls Coming to the US?

More and more analysts are beginning to take note of the “War on Cash.” However, they’re missing the fact that the actual template for what’s coming to the US first appeared in Europe back in 2012.

Back in March of 2012, when the EU Crisis first began to spin out of control, then Prime Minister of France Nicolas Sarkozy openly called for the renegotiation of the Schengen Treaty: the treaty that established the 26-nation EU as a “borderless” entity in which individuals could move from one country to another with little difficulty and which also made trade among EU members easier.

France was not alone either. A few months later, both France and Germany proposed imposing border controls in June of that same year.

A Vote of No Confidence in Europe

Germany and France’s joint proposal to allow Schengen-zone countries to temporarily reintroduce border controls as a means of last resort might sound harmless. But doing so would damage one of the strongest symbols of European unity and perhaps even contribute to the EU’s demise.

Germany and France are serious this time. During next week’s meeting of European Union interior ministers, the two countries plan to start a discussion about reintroducing national border controls within the Schengen zone. According to the German daily Süddeutsche Zeitung, German Interior Minister Hans-Peter Friedrich and his French counterpart, Claude Guéant, have formulated a letter to their colleagues in which they call for governments to once again be allowed to control their borders as “an ultima ratio” — that is, measure of last resort — “and for a limited period of time.” They reportedly go on to recommend 30-days for the period.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/german-and-french-proposal-for-border-controls-endangers-european-unity-a-828815.html

Why border controls? Well in truth, it was all about the money… specifically, physical cash. As we’ve noted before… with the vast majority of the global financial system based on digital money… the minute a significant number of depositors try to move their money OUT of a bank and INTO physical cash, the whole system can collapse

Again, Europe was ahead of the US in terms of proposing these terms. The below article dated from 2012 outlines the plan to limit cash withdrawals, shut down ATMs, and impose border controls to stop people from fleeing with their capital.

       Exclusive: EU floats worst-case plans for Greek euro exit: sources

European finance officials have discussed as a worst-case scenario limiting the size of withdrawals from ATM machines, imposing border checks and introducing capital controls in at least Greece should Athens decide to leave the euro…

As well as limiting cash withdrawals and imposing capital controls, they have discussed the possibility of suspending the Schengen agreement, which allows for visa-free travel among 26 countries, including most of the European Union.

http://money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20120611&id=15208663

What are the key takeaways from this?

  • When the next crisis hits, the Powers That Be are only too happy to let the rule of law will go out the window.
  • The biggest problem they face is STOPPING people from moving their money into physical cash.
  • To stop #2, capital controls, border controls, and even a CARRY taxes will be imposed.

Moreover, and I want to stress this, Europe has also shown us the template for how this mess will play out. Indeed, the 2013 banking crisis in Cyprus showed us EXACTLY how it will be in terms of speed and timing.

The quick timeline for Cyprus is as follows:

  • June 25, 2012: Cyprus formally requests a bailout from the EU.
  • November 24, 2012: Cyprus announces it has reached an agreement with the EU the bailout process once Cyprus banks are examined by EU officials (ballpark estimate of capital needed is €17.5 billion).
  • February 25, 2013: Democratic Rally candidate Nicos Anastasiades wins Cypriot election defeating his opponent, an anti-austerity Communist.
  • March 16 2013: Cyprus announces the terms of its bail-in: a 6.75% confiscation of accounts under €100,000 and 9.9% for accounts larger than €100,000… a bank holiday is announced.
  • March 17 2013: emergency session of Parliament to vote on bailout/bail-in is postponed.
  • March 18 2013: Bank holiday extended until March 21 2013.
  • March 19 2013: Cyprus parliament rejects bail-in bill.
  • March 20 2013: Bank holiday extended until March 26 2013.
  • March 24 2013: Cash limits of €100 in withdrawals begin for largest banks in Cyprus.
  • March 25 2013: Bail-in deal agreed upon. Those depositors with over €100,000 either lose 40% of their money (Bank of Cyprus) or lose 60% (Laiki).

The most important thing I want you to focus on is the speed of these events.

Cypriot banks formally requested a bailout back in June 2012. The bailout talks took months to perform. And then the entire system came unhinged in one weekend.

One weekend. The process was not gradual. It was sudden and it was total: once it began in earnest, the banks were closed and you couldn’t get your money out. ATMs were closed, capital controls were in place, full stop.

There were no warnings that this was coming because everyone at the top of the financial food chain are highly incentivized to keep quiet about this. Central Banks, Bank CEOs, politicians… all of these people are focused primarily on maintaining CONFIDENCE in the system.

How far will they go to maintain this trust?

The Bank of Cyprus, the bank that imploded in 2013 and STOLE clients’ funds was voted Best Bank for Private Banking in Cyprus by EUROMONEY magazine in 2012!!!

No joke…

Bank of Cyprus has been named as the Best Bank for Private Banking in Cyprus, by the internationally acclaimed magazine EUROMONEY

Bank of Cyprus Private Banking ranked first among Cypriot, Greek and other international financial institutions operating in Cyprus in the Private Banking sector…

This recognition by EUROMONEY is ever more important in today’s macroeconomic environment as it reaffirms the Bank’s ability to safely and successfully respond to its clients’ financial needs and emphasizes its clients’ loyalty and trust.

http://www.bankofcyprus.com.cy/en-GB/Cyprus/News-Archive/Best-Bank-for-Private-Banking/

From best bank to totally broke and freezing clients’ accounts in less than one year.

Europe has laid the template for what’s coming to the US.

This is just the beginning. We’ve uncovered a secret document outlining how the Fed plans to incinerate savings.

We detail this paper and outline three investment strategies you can implement

right now to protect your capital from the Fed’s sinister plan in our Special Report

Survive the Fed’s War on Cash.

We are making 1,000 copies available for FREE the general public.

To pick up yours, swing by….

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Best Regards

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market
30
Oct
2015
The Fed is “Testing the Waters” for NIRP

The Fed is “Testing the Waters” for NIRP

The US Federal Reserve is obsessed with market reactions to its policies. Because of this, anytime the Fed plans to announce a major change in policy, it preps the markets via numerous leaks and hints… oftentimes for months in advance.

An excellent example of this concerns the Fed’s decision to taper QE back in 2013.
At that time, the Fed had been engaging in two open ended-QE programs… programs that had been running for over six months.

Rather than simply beginning to taper the programs, then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, hinted that the Fed was contemplating a taper in June.

The markets reacted sharply with bond yields rising.

The Fed then spent six months allowing the market to get used to the idea of a taper, before the actual taper finally began in December 2013.

Put another way, the Fed gave the markets a full six months to adjust to a change in policy, before actually implementing said change. This only highlights just how focused the Fed is on market reactions to its policies.

In the simplest of terms: the Fed will NEVER surprise the market. This is particularly true now that the Fed is in the political cross hairs due to ample evidence showing its policies have increased wealth inequality.

If the Fed is planning on something new, particularly something that might have political repercussions, we’ll see numerous hints and suggestions well before the actual policy is unveiled.

With that in mind, we need to consider the number of Fed officials who have recently been hinting at Negative Interest Rate Policy or NIRP.

  1. First we find that a Fed official hinted at NIRP during the Fed’s September 2015 meeting.
  1. Then, on October 9th, Fed President Bill Dudley stating that negative rates were “an option” though not a “relevant conversation” right now.
  1. This statement was followed up by Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota stating point blank that the Fed should “consider negative rates.”

The Fed has never once hinted at or discussed NIRP during its policy meetings. Then, in the span of three weeks, we’ve not only had an anonymous Fed official state that he or she believes NIRP is coming to the US, but two highly visible Presidents have called to NIRP consideration.

This is simply part of the Fed’s larger War on Cash.

For six years straight, the Fed has been trying to “trash” cash.

First it cut interest rates to zero… making it so that savings deposits produced almost nothing in the way of interest income. Consider that at current rates, a retiree with $1 million in savings earns a measly $2,500 per year in interest income.

The Fed’s hope was that by making it painful for savers to sit in cash, said savers would move into risk assets such as bonds and stocks. This has worked in that stocks are now in one of, if not THE biggest bubbles in history… while bonds are trading at yields never before seen outside of wartime.

However, the Fed overlooked two outlets for investors who didn’t want to be forced into risk. They are: Gold bullion and physical cash.

The Fed has been dealing with bullion via clear manipulation of prices for years (that’s an article for another time). And now it is moving to make physical cash obsolete.

This is just the beginning. Indeed… we’ve uncovered a secret document outlining how the US Federal Reserve plans to incinerate savings in the coming months through NIRP, and possibly even by outlawing physical cash.

We detail this paper and outline three investment strategies you can implement

right now to protect your capital from the Fed’s sinister plan in our Special Report

Survive the Fed’s War on Cash.

We are making 1,000 copies available for FREE the general public.

To pick up yours, swing by….

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Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Our FREE daily e-letter: http://gainspainscapital.com/

 

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market
27
Oct
2015
Prepare to be Taxed: Wealth Tax and Carry Taxes Are Coming

Prepare to be Taxed: Wealth Tax and Carry Taxes Are Coming

Prepare to be taxed.

Behind the veneer of “all is well” being promoted by both world Governments and the Mainstream Media, the political elite have begun implementing legislation that will permit them to freeze accounts and use your savings to prop up insolvent banks.

This is not conspiracy theory or some kind of doom and gloom. It’s basic fact.

In the last 16 months, Canada, Cyprus, New Zealand, the US, the UK, and now Germany have all implemented legislation that would allow them to first FREEZE and then SEIZE bank assets during the next crisis. I expect more countries to join this movement. The IMF actually openly suggested it as the best means of dealing with future crises in the financial system.

Outside of this, we’ve also seen the beginning of moves to ban the use of physical cash in France, Spain, Uruguay, and elsewhere… as well as a growing chorus of experts calling for negative interest rates and possibly even a “carry tax” on cash itself.

Why is this?

The world will soon be facing a tsunami of defaults on bad debts.

This will include municipal or local government defaults, governments “defaulting” on promises they’ve made to the people (e.g. Social Security, Medicaid), a default on the social contract between society and politicians such as the one in Cyprus (a default on the notions of private property and Democracy), stealth defaults on debts in the form of inflation and finally, of course, outright sovereign defaults.

The sovereign defaults will come last; all other options will be tried first.

The reason for this is that sovereign bonds (think of US Treasuries, German Bunds or Japanese Government bonds) are the senior most collateral posted by banks for the hundreds of trillions of Dollars worth of derivatives bets they’ve made with each other.

The minute an actual sovereign default occurs in Europe, Asia or the US, then the large global banks will all be vaporized. End of story. As is now clear, the Central banks do not care about ordinary citizens. They only care about propping up the big banks.

This is why Cyprus decided to default on the social contract with its people and steal their funds rather than simply instigating a formal default. And it’s why in general we’re going to see Governments implementing more and more theft in the form of “taxes” (Cyprus called its theft a tax) in the future.

Make no mistake, the words “wealth tax” mean freezing of assets and then taking some of your savings. Anyone with more than $250,000 in a bank account should be prepared for this. It has happened in Cyprus. It will happen elsewhere too.

This will be sold to the public as either an attempt to tax those with a lot of money because it’s only fair that they put in more to bailout the nation OR as a form of financial terrorism e.g. “either you take a 7% cut on your deposits and the bank stays afloat or the bank crashes and you lose everything.”

This will be spreading throughout the world, GUARANTEED.

Spain, Canada (which allegedly has the safest banks in the world), New Zealand and now even Germany have already begun discussing confiscation schemes for depositors in the event of a banking crisis. The US and UK have also developed similar schemes to freeze “systemically important” financial entities during the next crisis.

This is just the beginning. Indeed… we’ve uncovered a secret document outlining how the US Federal Reserve plans to incinerate savings.

We detail this paper and outline three investment strategies you can implement

right now to protect your capital from the Fed’s sinister plan in our Special Report

Survive the Fed’s War on Cash.

We are making 1,000 copies available for FREE the general public.

To pick up yours, swing by….

http://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/cash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market
15
Oct
2015
Recession Watch: We’re Back in One

Recession Watch: We’re Back in One

The Fed has now kept interest rates at zero for 81 months.

This is the longest period in the history of the Fed’s existence, lasting longer than even the 1938-1942 period of ZIRP.

And the US economy is moving back into recession. Consider that…

  • Industrial production fell five months straight in the first half of 2015. This has never happened outside of a recession.
  • Merchant Wholesalers’ Sales are in recession territory.
  • The Empire Manufacturing Survey is in recession territory.
  • All four of the Fed’s September Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) readings (Philadelphia, New York, Richmond, and Kansas City) came in at readings of sub-zero. This usually happens when you are already 4-5 months into a recession. (H/T Bill Hester)

Why do these issues matter?

Because they are happening at a time when interest rates are already at zero.

Never in history has the US entered a recession when rates were this low. And it spells serious trouble for the financial system going forward.

Firstly, with rates at zero, the Fed has next to no ammo to combat the contraction. Some Central Banks have recently cut rates into the negative. But this is politically impossible in the US, particularly with an upcoming Presidential election.

This ultimately leaves QE as the last tool in the Fed’s arsenal to address an economic contraction.

However, at $4.5 trillion, the Fed’s balance sheet is already so monstrous that it has become a systemic risk in of itself. And the Fed knows this too… Janet Yellen, before she became Fed chair, was worried about exiting the Fed’s positions back when its balance sheet was only $1.3 trillion.

Moreover, it’s not clear that the Fed could launch another QE program at this point.

For one thing there is the upcoming Presidential election.

Regardless of one’s political affiliation, it is clear that wealth inequality has become one of the big issues for the election. With numerous media outlets catching on to the fact that QE exacerbates this, the Fed’s hands are tied unless we get a full on market meltdown.

So, the US economy is weakening at a time when the bar is set quite high for the Fed to enact any significant policy changes. With interest rates already at zero, the Fed cannot cut rates. And with Congress breathing down its neck and an election looming the Fed won’t be able to launch another QE program unless we experience a full-scale financial meltdown.

Thus, the Fed’s hands are tied… at a time when the economy is faltering and the stock market is beginning to weaken dramatically.

Another Crisis is brewing. Smart investors are preparing for it now while stocks are still holding up.

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Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Our FREE daily e-letter: http://gainspainscapital.com/

 

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market
08
Oct
2015
Governments Have Begun Moving to Ban Physical Cash

Governments Have Begun Moving to Ban Physical Cash

The Central Banks hate physical cash. So much so they there will likely try to ban it in the near future.

You see, almost all of the “wealth” in the financial system is digital in nature.

  • The total currency (actual cash in the form of bills and coins) in the US financial system is a little over $1.36 trillion.
  • When you include digital money sitting in short-term accounts and long-term accounts then you’re talking about roughly $10 trillion in “money” in the financial system.
  • In contrast, the money in the US stock market (equity shares in publicly traded companies) is over $20 trillion in size.
  • The US bond market (money that has been lent to corporations, municipal Governments, State Governments, and the Federal Government) is almost twice this at $38 trillion.
  • Total Credit Market Instruments (mortgages, collateralized debt obligations, junk bonds, commercial paper and other digitally-based “money” that is based on debt) is even larger $58.7 trillion.
  • Unregulated over the counter derivatives traded between the big banks and corporations is north of $220 trillion.

When looking over these data points, the first thing that jumps out at the viewer is that the vast bulk of “money” in the system is in the form of digital loans or credit (non-physical debt).

Put another way, actual physical money or cash (as in bills or coins you can hold in your hand) comprises less than 1% of the “money” in the financial system.

As far as the Central Banks are concerned, this is a good thing because if investors/depositors were ever to try and convert even a small portion of this “wealth” into actual physical bills, the system would implode (there simply is not enough actual cash).

Remember, the current financial system is based on debt. The benchmark for “risk free” money in this system is not actual cash but US Treasuries.

In this scenario, when the 2008 Crisis hit, one of the biggest problems for the Central Banks was to stop investors from fleeing digital wealth for the comfort of physical cash. Indeed, the actual “thing” that almost caused the financial system to collapse was when depositors attempted to pull $500 billion out of money market funds.

A money market fund takes investors’ cash and plunks it into short-term highly liquid debt and credit securities. These funds are meant to offer investors a return on their cash, while being extremely liquid (meaning investors can pull their money at any time).

This works great in theory… but when $500 billion in money was being pulled (roughly 24% of the entire market) in the span of four weeks, the truth of the financial system was quickly laid bare: that digital money is not in fact safe.

To use a metaphor, when the money market fund and commercial paper markets collapsed, the oil that kept the financial system working dried up. Almost immediately, the gears of the system began to grind to a halt.

When all of this happened, the global Central Banks realized that their worst nightmare could in fact become a reality: that if a significant percentage of investors/ depositors ever tried to convert their “wealth” into cash (particularly physical cash) the whole system would implode.

As a result of this, virtually every monetary action taken by the Fed since this time has been devoted to forcing investors away from cash and into risk assets. The most obvious move was to cut interest rates to 0.25%, rendering the return on cash to almost nothing.

However, in their own ways, the various QE programs and Operation Twist have all had similar aims: to force investors away from cash, particularly physical cash.

After all, if cash returns next to nothing, anyone who doesn’t want to lose their purchasing power is forced to seek higher yields in bonds or stocks.

The Fed’s economic models predicted that by doing this, the US economy would come roaring back. The only problem is that it hasn’t. In fact, by most metrics, the US economy has flat-lined for several years now, despite the Fed having held ZIRP for 5-6 years and engaged in three rounds of QE.

As a result of this… mainstream economists at CitiGroup, the German Council of Economic Experts, and bond managers at M&G have suggested doing away with cash entirely.

If you think this sounds like some kind of conspiracy theory, consider that France just banned any transaction over €1,000 Euros from using physical cash. Spain has already banned transactions over €2,500. Uruguay has banned transactions over $5,000. And on and on.

This is just the beginning. Indeed… we’ve uncovered a secret document outlining how the US Federal Reserve plans to incinerate savings.

We detail this paper and outline three investment strategies you can implement

right now to protect your capital from the Fed’s sinister plan in our Special Report Survive the Fed’s War on Cash.

We are making 1,000 copies available for FREE the general public.

To pick up yours, swing by….

http://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/cash.html

Best Regards

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market