Phoenix Capital Research

Sep

2024

Can Uncle Sam Stop the World Sliding Into Recession?

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

Outside of the U.S., the world economy is in serious trouble. Europe is teetering on the verge of recession with its collective economy barely growing for three quarters in a row.

Germany, the largest most dynamic economy in the EU has only just established a new high in its stock market. This is shocking when you consider the European Central Bank (ECB) has already cut interest rates by nearly 1%! Put another way, European stocks are struggling despite that region’s central bank already aggressively easing monetary policy!

Elsewhere in the world, China just “blinked” by cutting rates on reverse repos and injecting liquidity into its financial system. The problem here is similar to in Europe: economic weakness.

Chinese equities have gone nowhere since late 2022. In a financial system that relies heavily on asset prices for political stability, this has been a disaster. Chinese policymakers are finally acting in the hopes of breaking the downtrend.

Japan has a strong stock market… at the expense of a collapsing currency. The Yen is trading at levels not seen since the early ’90s. The global financial system experienced its first “ripple” from this situation in early August when stocks nose-dived as the Yen erupted higher on an intervention.

This leaves the the U.S. as the sole major economy chugging along with GDP growth of ~3% and a stock market that hit new all-time highs on a regular basis for six months.

A lot is riding on Uncle Sam’s shoulders. Does he have what it takes to keep the world from rolling over into recession?

To answer that question, I’d refer you to our special investment report, How to Predict a Crash which details a quantifiable tool that has accurately predicted Black Swan market crashes. It caught the 1987 Crash, the Tech Crash, and the Great Financial Crisis, to name a few.

With just one look at this tool, you can tell whether it’s a good time to buy stocks or not. I detail it, along with what it’s currently saying about the market today in How to Predict a Crash.

Normally, I’d charge $499 for this report as a standalone item. But I’m giving it away FREE to anyone who joins our daily market commentary Gains Pains & Capital.

To pick up your copy now (it doesn’t cost a dime)…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Sep

2024

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

The Fed began an easing cycle yesterday.

You are going to hear a LOT of people talking about this, saying it’s a sign that the economy is in recession.

It’s not.

This business cycle, is unlike any other. If you’re comparing what’s happening now to what happened in 2000 or 2007, then you’re comparing apples to oranges.

Was the economy shut down prior to the Fed cutting rates by 0.5% in 2000 or 2007?

No.

Did the Fed and Federal Government pump $11 trillion into the financial system in the years preceding the Fed’s decision to cut rates by 0.5% in 2000 or 2007?

No.

Did the U.S. experience an inflationary storm prior to the Fed cutting rates by 0.5% in 2000 or 2007?

No.

Comparing the Fed rate cuts and their implications today to the last two times the Fed cut rates by 0.5% without accounting for these differences is not just bad thinking… it’s actually BAD for your portfolio.

Why?

Because in 2024, the economy is NOT rolling over into recession, nor is the financial system showing any signs of duress. GDP growth is clocking in at 2%+.

As far as the financial system is concerned, stocks are outperforming junk bonds in dramatic fashion. Every time the financial system has been under duress during the last 17 years, this ratio has gone UP, breaking above its 10 month moving average (blue line in the chart below). Today there are ZERO signs of duress in this ratio.

Again, what’s happening today is NOTHING like what happened in 2000 or 2007. If your guru or strategist is telling you to sell the farm and prepare for a crisis, you need to FIRE THEM and get a copy of my How to Predict a Crash investment report, instead.

How to Predict a Crash uses a quantifiable tool that has accurately predicted Black Swan market crashes. It caught the 1987 Crash, the Tech Crash, and the Great Financial Crisis, to name a few.

Normally, I’d charge $499 for this report as a standalone item. But I’m giving it away FREE to anyone who joins our daily market commentary Gains Pains & Capital.

To pick up your copy now (it doesn’t cost a dime)…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Sep

2024

Why Does This Economy Feel So Weird?!

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

Why isn’t the economy rolling over into recession?

Every other week, an economic metric that has historically predicted multiple recessions goes off. Between this and the stock market’s volatility, stock market bears have plenty of ammunition for arguments that a crash or bear market is about to hit.

On the flip-side of this, stocks simply refuse to break down. Every time the market appears to be on the verge of a significant collapse, stocks erupt higher. And other economic data appears to be quite strong.

As a result of this, analysts trying to make sense of this situation end up either flip flopping on their forecasts… or appearing to be perma-bears or perma-bulls: investors who simply maintain the same perspective no matter what is happening.

What’s the deal here?

The deal is that this economic cycle is unlike any other in history. In the last five years the U.S. has experienced…

1) A voluntary economic shut down (2020-2021).

2) The Federal Reserve printing and funneling $5 trillion into the financial system in the span of 20 months (2020-2022).

3) The Federal Government spending $6 trillion in stimulus/ interventions in the span of two years (2020-2022).

4) The Federal Government running the largest deficit as a percentage of GDP outside of World War II (2020-today).

This is why everything feels so messy: investors are trying to navigate not just one Black Swan (a previously never seen before phenomenon), but FOUR Black Swans. The end result is a business cycle that is truly unlike any other.

So what are investors to do?

The answer is actually simple: invest in those stocks that will benefit from this unique environment, until a quantitative market trigger signals that a bear market is about to begin.

I’m not talking about a trigger that ONLY works during normal business cycles. I’m talking about a trigger that can in fact predict Black Swan events.

And I’ve developed PRECISELY such a tool.

It signaled before legitimate Black Swans: it fired before the 1987 Crash, the Tech Crash, and the Great Financial Crisis.

I detail this investing tool, how it works, and what it’s saying about the markets today in a special investment report How to Predict a Crash.

Normally, I’d sell this report as a standalone item for $499. But I’m giving it away for FREE for the next 30 days, to anyone who joins our daily investment commentary Gains Pains & Capital.

Again, this report will ONLY be available to the general public for the next 30 days.

To pick up your copy…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Sep

2024

A “Mystery” Buyer is Propping Up the Markets

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

This is BLATANT manipulation!

Stocks suffered a mini crash in early August when the Bank of Japan blew up the carry trade. Peak to trough, the S&P 500 lost 10% in a matter of three days.

Then “someone” stepped in, buying stocks hand over fist, and the market erupted higher, erasing all of those losses in less than two weeks.

This was blatant manipulation. No REAL buyer panic buys stocks. In fact, the traders running books for large financial institutions are graded based on their ability to acquire shares without moving the market.

Again, this was clear manipulation. Someone was trying to force stocks higher no matter what.

Fast forward to last week, and the same mystery buyer was at it again.

The S&P 500 was rejected by critical resistance at 5,650 (red line in the chart below). Stocks began to roll over, taking out the all-important 50-day moving average (the blue line in the chart below). Note that breaking below the 50-DMA was what precipitated the minicrash in early August.

Then the mystery buyer showed up again, PANIC BUYING stocks. Sending them straight up with every single dip being bought aggressively. Once again, the entire decline was erased in a matter of days.

Again, this is blatant manipulation. No REAL buyer with deep pockets does this stuff. This was someone who was CLEARLY intent on propping up the stock market at all costs.

Who is doing this?

It has to be the Fed… or the Fed courtesy of a proxy.

No other investor has bottomless pockets and PANIC BUYS stocks like this. Again, this is not some investor who’s trying to make money… this is someone who wants stocks higher no matter what.

Again, this has to be the Fed. In fact, I believe that at some point in the next few months, the Fed will openly admit to buying stocks with a new QE program.

I’m putting together a special report detailing precisely why this is… and which stocks I believe the Fed is buying.

This report, titled Chapter X will be sold as a standalone item for $499.

But readers of our free daily market commentary Gains Pains & Capital will have a copy delivered to their inboxes FREE of charge.

To join Gains Pains & Capital and have your copy of Chapter X delivered to your inbox later this week…

https://gainspainscapital.com/subscribe/

Best Regards,

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Sep

2024

Warning: This Hasn’t Been Wrong in 40 Years…

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

One of our proprietary measures for the economy is signaling a recession is at hand.

That measure is the Target (TGT): Walmart (WMT) ratio.

Target and Walmart are big box retailers with distinctively different brands/ price points. Target tends to be more consumer discretionary-oriented while Walmart tends to be more consumer staple-centric.

As a result of this, comparing the performance of the two companies’ stocks is a handy way of seeing if consumers are spending more money on discretionary items or if they are cutting back and focusing on lower price goods/ staples.

Put simply, when the TGT:WMT ratio rises, the consumer is strong. And when it collapses, it usually signals that an economic contraction is underway.

See for yourself. This ratio collapsed during the recession of 1990-1992, the Tech Crash/ recession, the Great Financial Crisis and the “close-call” of 2016-2017.

So what is this metric showing us today?

Hint: it’s UGLY.

Sure, this might be a fluke… but given the accuracy of this measure over the last 40 years, I wouldn’t bet on it. Indeed, my proprietary Crash trigger is on the verge of registering a “SELL” for the first time in four years.

This signal went off before the 1987 Crash, the Tech Crash, and even the Great Financial Crisis. And right now, it’s flashing its first MAJOR warning sign in years.

To find out about this trigger, and what it’s saying about stocks today…

Click Here Now…

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Sep

2024

This Hasn’t Happened Since the 2020 Crash!

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

Deflation and recession fears are on the rise.

Economically sensitive commodities like copper and oil have erased all of their 2024 gains and are now declining rapidly.

Defensive sectors like utilities are soaring… while growth-oriented sectors like Tech are struggling to move higher.

And worst of all, the ratio between stocks and long-term Treasuries has broken its 40-week moving average (the same as the 200-day moving average) for the first time since the pandemic crash!

All of this is EXTREMELY bearish and poses a major warning sign that additional downside could be here soon. Indeed, my proprietary Crash trigger is on the verge of registering a “SELL” for the first time in four years.

This signal went off before the 1987 Crash, the Tech Crash, and even the Great Financial Crisis. And right now, it’s flashing its first MAJOR warning sign in years.

To find out about this trigger, and what it’s saying about stocks today…

Click Here Now…

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Sep

2024

The Truth About What’s Happening In the Markets Today

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

Stocks have experienced a great deal of volatility in the last week.

However, when you take a step back and look at the big picture for the equity markets, it’s clear that stocks have been in a consolidation phase since mid-May. That consolidation has been between 5,200 and 5,600 on the S&P 500.

Why is this happening?

There are two critical issues the market is trying to determine:

When and how aggressively the Fed will start cutting rates.
Who will win the Presidential election in November.

Regarding #1, three factors have “muddied the waters” in terms of figuring out when and how aggressively the Fed will cut rates this year.

Those three factors are the inflation data, unemployment data, and GDP data.

With the economy not yet contracting, unemployment spiking due to immigration NOT job losses, and inflation trending down, albeit in a noisy fashion, the Fed has suffered from institutional inertia as it opts to focus on the data as opposed to cutting rates.

However, at the end of the day, the Fed tends to take its cues from the yield on the 2-Year U.S. Treasury. And the yield on the 2-Year U.S. Treasury is telling us the Fed is WAAAAAY behind the curve. The Fed needs to take action and soon or it risks a recession.

Regarding #2, the Presidential election has also provided a great deal of confusion for stocks. Some of the more critical items of note include A) the Democrat candidate was replaced in July when President Biden opted to not continue with his campaign, B) Kamala Harris has yet to debate Donald Trump, and C) the economic agenda of the two current candidates couldn’t be more different when it comes to specific policies.

However, at the end of the day, both candidates have proven to be big on social spending. In this sense, whoever wins the election, we can assume the government will continue to run significant deficits. And this will provide stimulus to the economy, which will benefit stocks.

You can see this in the monthly chart of the S&P 500. Sure, it’s experiencing a down month thus far in September, but the uptrend is clearly intact. For this reason, we view the current pullback as an opportunity to “buy the dip” not “sell the farm.”

As investors, our job is to make money, not look for any excuse to dump stocks and panic about something bad happening. And as I’ve outlined in recent articles, this means riding bull markets for as long as possible, and then side-stepping bear markets when they eventually hit.

In the very simplest of terms, you need to be invested in stocks, until an objective, verifiable tool (not your feelings or limiting beliefs) tells you it’s time to “get out.”

I’ve developed a tool that takes ALL of the guessing work out of this problem. With just one look at this tool, you can tell whether it’s a good time to buy stocks or not. I detail it, along with what it’s currently saying about the market today in a Special Investment Report How to Predict a Crash.

To pick up a free copy, swing by

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Aug

2024

The Dark Investing Secret the Bears Won’t Tell You

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

The crash callers and bears just got a major lesson.

It’s a lesson that all investors have to learn at some point. Indeed, the only investors who actually make money from the markets are those who have learned that lesson and integrated its outcomes to their investing strategies.

The lesson?

Bears don’t make money.

The reality is that being a bear provides you with endless material to write or complain about. After all, at any point in time there are a million things that can go wrong in the markets. But most of the time, as in over 95% of the time, those terrible things don’t actually play out.

Even when bad things do play out, few if any investors actually make money from them.

Consider the Great Financial Crisis of 2008: arguably the greatest bear market/ crisis of our lifetimes.

In 2008, there were roughly 216 million American adults over the age of 18. Roughly 60% of them had exposure to the stock market via brokerage accounts or retirements accounts (401Ks, IRAs, etc.) So, we’re talking about roughly 130 MILLION people who were involved in the stock market in one way or another.

The number of investors who got rich betting on a crash at that time is under 30. So, we’re talking about 30 people out of 130 MILLION succeeding. That’s roughly one ten millionth of one percent (0.00001%).

To put that into perspective, you are TEN TIMES more likely to be struck by lightning (the odds of that happening are one in one million).

Moreover, those few investors who DID get rich from the Great Financial Crises were all in highly unusual circumstances, none of which apply to the typical trader/ individual investor.

John Paulson is a famous hedge fund manager who became a billionaire betting on the housing crash. What you might not know is that the only reason this happened was because he personally had Goldman Sachs build securities that were chock full of garbage mortgages, which Goldman Sachs then sold to other clients… so Paulson could bet against them.

This was unethical and borderline illegal. And individual investors like you or I would NEVER have this opportunity (when was the last time you told Goldman Sachs to create something for you to bet against?)

Michael Burry is another hedge fund manager who got rich from betting on the housing crash. He had to LOSE money for two years before his bets worked out. And even once things went in his favor, the investment banks who sold him the securities he used to bet against the housing market refused to value his trades as profitable. Then his investors tried to withdraw their funds. When Burry refused to give the money back, they sued him. What followed was years of legal hell as well as an investigation by the FBI.

So let us consider this…

The odds of making a fortune betting on a crisis or some other Black Swan even are less than those of being struck by lightning.

The small handful of people who DO get rich from these situations do so either because they have A) a ridiculously unethical set up like John Paulson B) are willing to experience a nightmarish scenario for months, or even years like Michael Burry.

Again, being a bear is great if you want something to complain about… but it’s terrible if you want to make money from the markets.

If you’re tired of listening to bears who do nothing but lose you money, come join our daily market commentary Gains Pains & Capital. It focuses on proven investment strategies that can boost you portfolio returns.

Indeed, we just published a special investment report that details proprietary triggers that register before every bear market or crash. Unless these triggers go off, we’re putting our money to work, profiting from the markets.

I detail them, along with what they’re currently saying about the market today in our Special Investment Report How to Predict a Crash.

To pick up a free copy, swing by

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Aug

2024

I’ve Got A Message For the Crash Callers

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

The Crash Callers are out in full force once again.

The problem with calling for a Crash is that you’re wrong 99% of the time. Then, once every few years, you’re correct. The whole process reminds me of a broken clock which is “correct” two times a day… but wrong the other 23 hours 58 minutes.

Remember, the purpose of investing is to make money. The easiest way to do that is to ride bull markets for as long as possible… and then get out before a bear market/ crash hits.

But what about the investors who make huge fortunes during Crashes like the Great Financial Crisis of 2008?

Let me bring you in on a dirty little secret…

Almost NO ONE made money during the market crashing in 2008. And the people who did were in situations that you or I will NEVER be in.

In 2008, there were roughly 216 million American adults over the age of 18. Roughly 60% of them had exposure to the stock market via brokerage accounts or retirements accounts (401Ks, IRAs, etc.) So, we’re talking about roughly 130 MILLION people who were involved in the stock market in one way or another.

To put that into perspective, you are TEN TIMES more likely to be struck by lightning (the odds of that happening are one in one million).

Moreover, those few investors who DID get rich from the Great Financial Crises were all in highly unusual circumstances, none of which apply to the typical trader/ individual investor.

John Paulson is a famous hedge fund manager who became a billionaire betting on the housing crash. What you might not know is that the only reason he succeeded was because he personally had Goldman Sachs build securities that were chock full of garbage mortgages, which Goldman Sachs then sold to other clients… so Paulson could bet against them.

To top it off, his investors tried to withdraw their funds. When Burry refused to give the money back, they sued him. What followed was years of legal hell as well as an investigation by the FBI.

So, let us consider this…

The odds of making a fortune betting on a crisis or some other Black Swan are less than those of being struck by lightning.

The small handful of people who DO get rich from these situations do so either because they have A) a ridiculously unethical set up like John Paulson B) are willing to experience a nightmarish scenario for months, or even years like Michael Burry.

Which brings me back to my original point: the purpose of investing is to make money. The easiest way to do that is to ride bull markets for as long as possible… and then get out before a bear market/ crash hits.

Put another way, the Crash Callers have investing totally backwards: you need to focus on the 99% of times stocks don’t Crash, NOT the 1% of the time they do.

So obviously, investors need a tool for determining whether stocks are simply correcting in the context of a bull market… or if a legitimate crash/ bear market is about to unfold.

To pick up a free copy, swing by

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Aug

2024

Are the Lows In?

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) just “blinked.”

This mini-crisis was triggered by the BoJ raising rates for the first time since 2007, which in turn, blew up the Yen carry trade.

I realize that sounds as if I’m speaking in code, so let me break this down.

As I outlined in my most recent bestseller, Into The Abyss, Japan is the grandfather of monetary insanity. The Fed first introduced Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) and Quantitative Easing (QE) in 2008. Japan’s central bank, the Bank of Japan, or BoJ for short, introduced ZIRP in 1999 and QE in 2001, respectively.

Over the course of the last 20+ years, the BoJ has engaged in a slow-motion nationalization of Japan’s financial system. Today it owns over 50% of all Japanese Government bonds and is the single largest shareholder of Japanese stocks in the world.

All of this worked relatively well until inflation entered the financial system in 2020-2021 and the BoJ refused to address the situation.

The Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB) started raising rates and shrinking their balance sheets in early/ mid-2022. The BoJ only started tightening monetary policy in 2023. And it finally started raising rates at the end of July (as in a week ago).

That’s when all hell broke loose.

The Japanese Yen has been in a free-fall for the last four years as the BoJ refused to tighten monetary policy while every other major central bank was raising rates and draining liquidity. Indeed, going into the BoJ’s rate hike decision a week ago, the Yen was trading at levels not seen since the late 1980s.

Once the BoJ started talking about raising rates, the Yen started moving higher. And last week, when the BoJ actually raised rates, the Yen EXPLODED higher.

This is a globally systemic issue because the Yen is one of the largest carry trades in the world. If you’re unfamiliar with a carry trade, it consists of borrowing money in one currency (at a low interest rate) to invest in other assets.

Since the Yen has been yielding more or less ZERO for the last 20+ years, hedge funds and other institutional investors have been borrowing hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of Yen to invest in other assets with EXTREME leverage.

The problem with this is that leverage works both positively and negatively.

Imagine you have $1 million to invest and you borrow $10 million in Yen at 0.1%. Your annual interest payments on the Yen are ~$10,000. Meanwhile, you invest that $10 million in stocks, which then rally 10%.

You’ve just made $1.1 million in profits (10% of your $11 million). And since your actual capital is just $1 million, you’ve more than doubled your money with this trade courtesy of leverage.

However, this process ALSO works to the downside when things go wrong. If the currency you are borrowing in (the Yen) skyrockets relative to the currency in which the assets you are buying are denominated (the $USD), your trade will BLOW up quite badly.

In the last month, the Yen/ $USD pair has ripped 12% higher. This, combined with the higher interest rate on the Yen (the BoJ raised rates from 0.1% to 2.5% last week) is BLOWING UP hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of the Yen carry trade.

When a carry trade blows up, investors are forced to panic liquidate their holdings. That is why the market melted down over the last few weeks with companies like Apple and Nvidia collapsing in share price despite being OBSCENELY profitable.

Which brings us to today.

The BoJ announced a previously unscheduled meeting with Japan’s Ministry of Finance and its Financial Services Agency on Tuesday. This was a signal to the markets that an intervention of sorts was coming.

Soon after that, the deputy head of the BoJ, Shinichi Uchida announced that the BoJ won’t “raise rates if the markets are unstable.” This is akin to the BoJ telling the markets, “we got the message and are standing down.”

The big question now is if the lows are in… or is another round of selling coming? Put another way, was this simply a correction in the context of a bull market… or is a legitimate crash/ bear market is about to unfold.

One the one hand, corrections are common events in which you should “buy the dip.” But on the other hand, once every 10 years or so, a REAL crash/ bear market will hit that will wipe out years’ worth of gains!

So obviously, investors need a tool for determining whether stocks are simply correcting in the context of a bull market… or if a legitimate crash/ bear market is about to unfold.

To pick up a free copy, swing by

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Aug

2024

Is This Just a Correction… or the Start of a Crash?

Stocks have broken down in a big way, leading investors to ask…

Is this a garden variety correction… or the start of a REAL crash?

The S&P 500 sliced through its 50-SMA and plunged down to its 200-SMA in a matter of days. We haven’t seen a collapse like this since the regional bank crisis of March 2023.

First and foremost, you should know that market dips/ pullbacks are quite common.

Consider that stocks will typically pull back 5%+ three or four times every year. Larger drops aren’t that uncommon either: the market corrected 10% or more in HALF of the 20 years from 2002-2021.

Anyone who panicked and sold the farm when that happened ended up missing out in a big way!

Having said that, this correction has been quite violent. Many of the market’s leaders are down 20%+ which technically would be considered “bear market” territory.

Moreover, the Volatility Index (VIX) has spiked to levels that are typically associated with crises. See for yourself in the chart below.

Thus, investors are in a quandary.

So obviously, investors need a tool for determining whether stocks are simply correcting in the context of a bull market… or if a legitimate crash/ bear market is about to unfold.

To pick up a free copy, swing by

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Jul

2024

You Can Use This Tool to Save Your Portfolio From a Crash

WOW, have investors gotten bearish.

A month ago, everyone on the planet was talking about new all-time highs for the stock market and big tech was the only game in town.

Fast forward to today, and Nvidia (NVDA) is down 20%, and I see gurus calling for a new bear market in stocks. And bear in mind… the S&P 500 is down just ~5%… after rallying 40% in just eight months!

This is the problem with being bearish. Sure, you will be right once a decade or so… but, 99% of the time, panicking is a colossal mistake.

Why?

Because over the long-term, stocks go up and go up a LOT. As in 1,000s of percentage points.

Moreover, market dips/ pullbacks are quite common.

Anyone who panicked and sold the farm when that happened ended up missing out in a big way!

As Charles Schwab notes, since 1974, the S&P 500 has risen an average of more than 8% one month after a market correction bottom and more than 24% one year later.

Put simply, panicking or getting overly bearish simply because stocks are correcting is a MASSIVE mistake for the simple reason that pullbacks/ dips are quite common even during raging bull markets!

Thus, investors are in a quandary.

So obviously, investors need a tool for determining whether stocks are simply correcting in the context of a bull market… or if a legitimate crash/ bear market is about to unfold.

To pick up a free copy, swing by

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Jul

2024

Is THE Top in For Stocks?

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

Editors note: Chief Market Strategist Graham Summers, MBA will be on the Schilling Show radio program today at 1:30 EST. You can listen in here.

Everywhere I look, I see investors proclaiming that “THE” top is in and a bear market is about to unfold.

First and foremost, there is NO reason to ever try to call a top.

Why?

Because doing so doesn’t make you any money. In fact, top callers usually miss out on major market gains by selling way too early.

Consider what happened during the last market correction in April 2024. Then, just as now, the top callers came out of the woodwork. The market corrected for two weeks before rallying another 15%. Anyone who sold, missed out on these gains.

Moreover, there are nearly ZERO signs from real market indicators that THE top is in right now.

Consider the last major bear market that unfolded from early 2022 until October 2023. At that time, high yield credit broke down along with stocks, signaling that a major shift had taken place in the financial system.

Today, high yield credit is near all-time highs. If anything, it is signaling that stocks have sold off TOO MUCH!

The same is true for market breadth. Going into the bear market of 2022, breadth peaked before stocks.

Today, breadth is near all-time highs. It too is signaling that the selling is overdone for stocks.

Finally, and likely most importantly, the U.S. is four months away from the next Presidential election. And the next President of the United States, Donald Trump, is obsessed with the stock market.

Do you REALLY want to be shorting stocks when the single biggest cheerleader in the history of the stock market is going to take office?

With that in mind, we are about to publish a Special Investment Report detailing the #1 investment to own when during a Trump 2nd Term.

Normally, this report would sell as a stand-alone item for $499, but we are giving away a limited number of copies for free to investors who join our daily e-letter: Gains Pains & Capital.

To join today… and reserve your copy of The #1 Investment to Own During Trump’s 2nd Term…

www.gainspainscapital.com/subscribe

Best Regards

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Jul

2024

These Are the Two Charts You NEED to See Today

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

This correction is close to over. And when it ends, stocks will rally hard to new all-time highs.

How do I know this?

Because the market internals are telling me.

Historically, high yield credit leads the stock market. The reason for this is because high yield credit (read: junk bonds) is MUCH more sensitive to macro changes due to the fact that when the economy rolls over, junk bond investors typically lose a LOT of money very quickly.

Because of this, high yield credit acts as a kind of “canary in the coal mine” for the financial system. If something BAD is coming, this is the first area to react.

High yield credit (red line in the chart below) just hit new all-time highs. Indeed, based on high yield credit, the S&P 500 should be north of 5,600 right now. This is NOT bearish for risk assets including stocks.

High yield credit isn’t the only market internal that suggests stocks are ready to rip higher.

Overall breadth has bounced hard after hitting new all-time highs. The below chart is telling us that the S&P 500 is being dragged down by big tech, but overall market breadth is getting STRONGER not weaker.

Again, this is NOT bearish. Indeed, if we go by breadth (red line in the chart below), the S&P 500 should be 100 points higher right now.

I suspect part of the reason why market internals are acting so strongly is because the market is discounting that the next President of the United States will be Donald Trump, who is obsessed with the stock market.

If you’ll recall, the former President promoted the stock market almost non-stop during his first term. Indeed, he tweeted about it an average of two times per week, mentioned it in the media dozens of times, and even pumped it higher by leaking economic developments any time it looked as if the markets would break down.

Put simply, Trump is a stock market cheerleader, and I believe the stock market is discounting a second Trump term. This will benefit certain sectors and stocks more than others. And those investors who are properly positioned stand to make potential fortunes.

With that in mind, we are about to publish a Special Investment Report detailing the #1 investment to own when during a Trump 2nd Term.

Normally, this report would sell as a stand-alone item for $499, but we are giving away a limited number of copies for free to investors who join our daily e-letter: Gains Pains & Capital.

To join today… and reserve your copy of The #1 Investment to Own During Trump’s 2nd Term…

www.gainspainscapital.com/subscribe

Best Regards

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Jul

2024

Stocks Are About to EXPLODE Higher

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

Get ready for a “Rip Your Face Off” rally in the stock market.

Why?

Three reasons…

1) The bull market is getting stronger, not weaker.

Regarding #3, for most of the last three months, the overall market’s gains have been driven by a handful of Big Tech plays.

No longer…

Overall market breadth has surged in the last two weeks, hitting new all-time highs before this recent pullback. This bull market is getting stronger, not weaker.

Reason #2 why stocks are about to explode higher.

The Fed is about to start cutting rates… at a time when the economy is still growing. The futures market is predicting between 1.75% and 2% in rate cuts by September of next year. That means seven or even EIGHT rate cuts in a 13 month period!

That is NOT bearish.

And finally, and likely most importantly, reason #3 why stocks are about to rally hard.

The next President of the United States, Donald Trump, is obsessed with the stock market. He tweeted about it an average of two times per week during his first term. And Team Trump has already leaked proposals to take over the Fed if the Fed doesn’t play ball.

Remember, the stock market is forward looking, which means that starting today, the market is going to begin discounting a Trump win.

This will benefit certain sectors and stocks more than others. And those investors who are properly positioned stand to make potential fortunes.

With that in mind, we are about to publish a Special Investment Report detailing the #1 investment to own when during a Trump 2nd Term.

Normally, this report would sell as a stand-alone item for $499, but we are giving away a limited number of copies for free to investors who join our daily e-letter: Gains Pains & Capital.

To join today… and reserve your copy of The #1 Investment to Own During Trump’s 2nd Term…

www.gainspainscapital.com/subscribe

Best Regards

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Jul

2024

We’re About to Release a New Special Investment Report

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

I hate politics.

Politics are a full contact sport that brings out the ugliest aspects of human nature. And the political environment today is more toxic than at any other time in my lifetime.

Unfortunately for investors, the President and his/her agenda for the economy has a MAJOR impact on the markets. For those of us who want to make money from our investments, we have to address recent political events.

With that in mind, it is clear that Donald Trump will be the next U.S. President.

The attempted assassination of former President has horrified and disgusted every decent person in this country. And it is guaranteed two things:

1) Joe Biden will NOT be leaving the race.

2) Donald Trump is going to win the election.

Regarding #1, following a terrible debate performance, President Biden has been struggling to maintain any kind of lead in the polls. Questions abound about the true state of the President’s cognitive/ physical health, resulting in multiple Democrat leaders and mega-donors calling on the President to step down and allow another candidate on the 2024 ticket.

This was problematic before the assassination attempt on President Trump.

For one thing, it is not clear that another candidate could legally replace Biden on the ballot in all 50 states. There’s also the issue of whether another candidate could use Biden’s campaign funds or not. And finally, there’s the fact that Biden himself doesn’t want to step down.

The attempted assassination of Donald Trump has changed all of this. NO other candidate will want to run for President in 2024. The potential upside of doing so is gone.

This presents Team Biden with a MAJOR problem.

Because of the questions concerning President Biden’s cognitive health, the President and his campaign staff had doubled down on vilifying former President Trump as its primary campaign strategy. In their minds, the only way to distract from Biden’s cognitive issues or paint him in a more positive light relative to his opponent was to the depict Trump as a “dictator” or “evil.”

Following the attempted assassination of President Trump, that strategy is now politically impossible. As I noted before, every decent American is horrified by the assassination attempt. Consequently, Biden cannot portray Trump as a monster after what happened without offending potential voters,

Put simply, following what happened on Saturday, President Biden is now a candidate with no viable campaign strategy… and questionable cognitive functioning.

Which means…

Former President Trump is going win the 2024 Presidential election.

If you don’t believe me, consider what the betting markets are saying. From April until the June debate, the two candidates’ betting odds were within spitting distance of each other.

Then the debate happened, and the odds of President Biden winning the election, represented by the purple line in the chart below, cratered. And following Saturday’s assassination attempt, the odds of President Trump winning, as represented by the light blue line, have skyrocketed.

As I write this, there is now a 71% chance of Trump winning.

The stock market is forward looking, which means that starting today, the market is going to begin discounting a Trump win.

This will benefit certain sectors and stocks more than others. And those investors who are properly positioned stand to make potential fortunes.

With that in mind, we are publishing a Special Investment Report detailing precisely which stocks will explode higher based on a second Trump term on Wednesday of this week.

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Jul

2024

Warning: Yesterday Was NOT Bearish for Stocks At All!

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

Is the market about to crash?

I ask because everywhere I look, I see analysts and gurus proclaiming that yesterday’s “bearish” action was the start of a major collapse.

There’s just one problem with this… MOST of the market rallied yesterday.

I’m not making this up… over 400 of the 500 companies in the S&P 500 finished the day UP yesterday. The reason the market fell at all is because big tech, which comprises 30% of the market’s weight, dropped hard.

In fact, the overall market breadth (a measure of internal market strength) actually erupted to new all time highs yesterday.

Does this look like the start of a major collapse to you?

This is why you have to be so careful when someone starts spouting off bearish arguments based on stocks dropping. It’s so easy to panic and sell… when the dip might in fact be a MAJOR buying opportunity.

Case in point, a LOT of people sold in April when the market corrected just ~5% (a totally healthy correction in the context of a bull market). The S&P 500 has since rallied over 600 points. Anyone who sold in April MISSED OUT on making some serious money!

Remember, as investors, our job is to make money, not look for any excuse to dump stocks and panic about something bad happening. And as I’ve outlined in recent articles, this means riding bull markets for as long as possible, and then side-stepping bear markets when they eventually hit.

In the very simplest of terms, you need to be invested in stocks, until an objective, verifiable tool (not your feelings or limiting beliefs) tells you it’s time to “get out.”

To pick up a free copy, swing by

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Jul

2024

Whatever You Do… Don’t Fall For This Silly Argument!

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

As I outlined yesterday, as an individual investor, there are two things you NEED to focus on:

1) Ride bull markets for as long as possible.

2) Get out of stocks once a bear market hits.

If you do this, you WILL get wealthy from investing over time.

I bring this up, because I’m seeing more and more analysts arguing that the bull market is about to end and that a raging recession will crater stocks.

I don’t see what they are seeing. If anything, stocks look ready to go to new highs of 5,800 or even higher by year end. Please note, I’m not saying there won’t be dips and corrections along the way… I mean that this is a bull market, and if anything it’s getting stronger.

One of the primary criticisms of this bull market is that it’s being driven by just a handful of stocks: the big tech plays like Amazon, Alphabet, Nvidia, etc. Meanwhile, the other 495 stocks that comprise the S&P 500 are trailing behind.

This actually makes perfect sense. The big tech companies are the most profitable companies in history. Collectively, Amazon, Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet generated $116 BILLION in cash flow in 1Q24.

That’s roughly $1.28 BILLION in cash flow… per day.

Again, there’s a reason by the big tech companies lead the market: they’re the largest, most profitable companies in history. They should lead the market!

The key item is whether the rest of the market plays “catch up” or if big tech rolls over. And throughout this bull market begun in October 2022, the rest of the market has played “catch up.”

Take a look at the first leg higher from October 2022 to June 2023. At that time, the regular S&P 500 which is heavily weighted towards tech and is represented by the black line in the chart below dramatically outperformed the equal weighted S&P 500: a version of the S&P 500 in which each company receives 1/500th weighting as represented by the blue line in the chart below.

Then, just like now, stock market bears and misguided gurus were out proclaiming that the stock market was about to collapse because it was “held up by only a handful of stocks.”

Then the rest of the market played “catch up” and the market roared to over 5,000 within eight months.

So again, the fact that big tech is leading the market… and makes up the bulk of its gains isn’t necessarily a BAD thing. If the rest of the market plays catch up… as it tends to do… the bull market will continue MUCH LONGER than most analysts expect.

In the very simplest of terms, you need to be invested in stocks, until an objective, verifiable tool (not your feelings or limiting beliefs) tells you it’s time to “get out.”

To pick up a free copy, swing by

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Jul

2024

Investors Need to Focus On Just Two Things

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

As an individual investor, there are two things you NEED to focus on:

1) Ride bull markets for as long as possible.

2) Get out of stocks once a bear market hits.

If you do this, you WILL get wealthy from investing over time.

Consider the last 35 years. The investor who simply bought stocks regardless of whether they were in a bull or bear market experienced a 17 year period in which he or she made NO money from their investments.

The reason?

The bear markets from 2000-2003 and 2007-2009. The losses generated by those five years’ worth of bear markets resulted in 17 years of ZERO gains from the markets.

See for yourself… from 1996 through 2013/2014, stocks went nowhere. Anyone who invested during this time grew his or her portfolio via contributions NOT market gains.

Again, as an individual investor you can’t just ride bull markets. You also need to avoid bear markets.

If you did that over the last 35 years, you achieved the gains from the green rectangles, and didn’t give back those gains during the bear markets in between. And you got rich in the process.

In the very simplest of terms, you need to be invested in stocks, until an objective, verifiable tool (not your feelings or limiting beliefs) tells you it’s time to “get out.”

To pick up a free copy, swing by

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Jul

2024

This is the Only Thing You Need to Know About the Economy Today…

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

If you’re looking for a reason why the U.S. hasn’t slipped into recession yet, the answer is simple…

Uncle Sam is propping up the economy. And it’s working… for now

Some items of note:

Since, mid-2021, public sector job growth has outpaced private sector job growth.
Government transfers (social spending) accounted for 40% of the growth in income in 1Q24 and was the single largest contributor to personal income growth in 20 states.
In June, the government accounted for 1/3rd of all job gains.
When you add private sector jobs that are funded indirectly by the government, (healthcare, education) Uncle Sam accounted for 74% of ALL jobs created in June!

As I mentioned earlier, the government is propping up the economy via hiring and social spending. This is why the U.S. economy refuses to break down into a recession despite weakness in the private sector.

Small wonder then that stocks keep ripping higher. The S&P 500 has hit new all-time highs in each of the last five weeks!

Put simply, this is a raging bull market courtesy of an economy that is being propped up abject government spending that is funded by the largest deficit as a percentage of GDP in the history of the U.S. (outside of WWII).

At some point this situation will end… BADLY. But in the meantime, we need to ignore all the doom and gloom and ride this bull market for as long as possible.

Think about the raging bull market that occurred in the early ’00s. The first signs of the Great Financial Crisis appeared in mid-2006. Those who panicked based on this, had to wait another 20 months as the market rose another ~30% before stocks finally began to break down.

In the very simplest of terms, you need to be invested in stocks, until an objective, verifiable tool (not your feelings or limiting beliefs) tells you it’s time to “get out.”

To pick up a free copy, swing by

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Phoenix Capital Research

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THE ONLY REPORT INVESTORS NEED TO KNOW WHEN TO GET OUT OF STOCKS

LISTEN TO OUR PODCAST.

GRAHAM'S NEW BOOK WAS THE #1 NEW RELEASE IN FOUR CATEGORIES ON AMAZON

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THE ONLY REPORT INVESTORS NEED TO KNOW WHEN TO GET OUT OF STOCKS

LISTEN TO OUR PODCAST.

GRAHAM'S NEW BOOK WAS THE #1 NEW RELEASE IN FOUR CATEGORIES ON AMAZON

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