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BULLS, BEARS & BS- The Dark Truth About the Debt Deal... and What It Means For Inflation, Stocks and the Economy May 31, 2023
- The Truth About the Debt Ceiling, Why Tech Stocks Are Rallying, and the "D" Word May 22, 2023
- Another Major Bank Fails... But Stocks Don't Care. What is Going On!?! May 2, 2023
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Author Archives: Phoenix Capital Research
Warning: the Debt “Deal” Opens the Door to Unlimited Spending
It’s worse than I imagined. I had initially thought that the current debt ceiling deal would feature a small amount of spending cuts in 2024. In reality, it will feature NO CUTS and will in fact open the door to … Continue reading
Posted in Inflation, Policy Error
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This is a Make or Break Market… Here’s How to Play It
By Graham Summers, MBA As I first noted in my best-selling book The Everything Bubble: The Endgame For Central Bank Policy, “politicians make promises, but bond markets deliver.” What I meant by this is that our entire political system is now … Continue reading
Posted in Inflation
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The AI Plays Wall Street Doesn’t Want You to Know About
Looks like I underestimated this one! Yesterday I noted that the Artificial Intelligence (AI) bubble was still going strong, but that large players like Nvidia (NVDA) were probably “tapped out.” At that time, I noted that the ratio between NVDA … Continue reading
Posted in AI
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There’s Something “Unusual” About This Market Rally… I Think I Know What It Is
By Graham Summers, MBA The stock market sure look bullish, doesn’t it? The S&P 500 has managed to start turning its 200-day moving average (DMA) upwards. This is a significant development is at it indicates that the intermediate to long-term … Continue reading
Posted in False Breakout, stock collapse?
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How to Profit From the AI Revolution
By Graham Summers, MBA Artificial Intelligence (A)I is the current major them for the markets. With economically related companies (TGT, X, etc) showing lower returns, investors are piling into AI as the next major source of growth for corporate top … Continue reading
Posted in AI
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Signs of a Recession Are Growing…
Is the economy just about to roll over? Copper, the commodity with a PhD in economics, has erased all of its year to date gains. It’s currently about 10% off its 2022 lows which marked the low for risk assets … Continue reading
Posted in Recession Watch, stock collapse?
Tagged Recession Watch
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How to Tell If Your Bank is in Trouble
By Graham Summers, MBA Dear Investor, You no doubt have some concerns about the bank at which you keep your deposits. I mean, why wouldn’t you? Three of the largest bank failures in U.S. history have already taken place this … Continue reading
Posted in Bank Crisis
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What Happened Yesterday… and Why Regional Banks Are in Trouble
By Graham Summers, MBA Thus far in 2023, there have been three major bank failures. And I do mean MAJOR: all told the three banks had $532 billion in assets. That amount is actually greater in size that the combined assets … Continue reading
Posted in stock collapse?
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Warning: the Financial System is About to Lose Its Last Major Prop
By Graham Summers, MBA Japan just reported inflation of 3.5%. This is a big deal. Why? First and foremost, it’s significantly higher than expectations: 3.5% vs 3.2%. Secondly, it shows that inflation is turning back upwards in Japan. Last month’s … Continue reading
Posted in stock collapse?
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Warren Buffett Would Like a Word With You
By Graham Summers, MBA Warren Buffett is arguably the greatest investor of all time. Unlike many of the super wealthy that existed before him (Rockefeller, Morgan, Vanderbilt, Dupont) Buffett wasn’t an entrepreneur who built an oil, steel, banking, or railroad … Continue reading
Posted in stock collapse?
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I Sincerely Hope You Aren’t Ignoring This
By Graham Summers, MBA You can forget about what the media is telling you…because REAL inflation has come down much at all. The media likes to trumpet that headline inflation has dropped in the U.S. from a peak of ~9% … Continue reading
Posted in Inflation
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Three Charts You Need to See Before the Weekend Hits
By Graham Summers, MBA It’s earnings season and options expiration week for the month of April. Both of those items have historically been extremely bullish: stocks almost always rally into earnings and options expiration week is the week of for Wall Street … Continue reading
Posted in stock collapse?, The Everything Bubble
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If You Missed the First Round, You Won’t Want to Miss This One
By Graham Summers, MBA The next round of the inflation trade has begun. The first round focused on energy prices. Oil rose from $10 a barrel at the 2020 lows to $130 per barrel at the 2022 highs. You may … Continue reading
Posted in Inflation
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The Clock is Ticking on This $20 Trillion Debt Bomb
By Graham Summers, MBA Is this the next black swan? The commercial real estate market in the U.S. is about $20 trillion in size. This is not a small asset class. And thanks to the pandemic changing work habits, the Fed … Continue reading
Posted in Debt Bomb
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Why Stocks Are On Borrowed Time
By Graham Summers, MBA The Fed has turned off the money pump again. If you’re looking for a reason why stocks erupted higher starting in early March, look no further than the below chart of the Fed’s balance sheet. As … Continue reading
Posted in Head Fake, stock collapse?
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What Do These People Know That We Don’t?
By Graham Summers, MBA A few things for us to think about… Wal-Mart (WMT) is the largest private employer in the world. It’s also one of the largest retailers in the world. As such, it is a major economic bellwether. … Continue reading
Posted in Recession Risk, stock collapse?
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The Bond Market Fears Something Worse Than Inflation is Coming
By Graham Summers, MBA The bond market is signaling some thing “BAD” is coming. Bond yields rose throughout late 2021-early 2023 on fears of inflation. But once Silicon Valley Bank imploded, yields dropped rapidly: historically investors pile into Treasuries as … Continue reading
Posted in Inflation, Recession Risk, stock collapse?
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OK, This is Getting Downright Spooky
By Graham Summers, MBA Investors are running a repeat of the same trading pattern we saw in 2008. That pattern? A mini-crisis in March, followed by a summer rally, and then the real fireworks begin. In 2008, Bear Stearns had … Continue reading
Posted in Recession Risk, stock collapse?
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Warning: Inflation is About to Explode Higher Again… Are You Prepared?
By Graham Summers, MBA OPEC shocked the world by announcing oil production cuts of 1.6 million barrels per day starting in May. This is a big deal for inflation. Why? Because as I have noted previously, the ONLY inflation data … Continue reading
Posted in Inflation
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Three Charts Every Investor Needs to See Today
By Graham Summers, MBA A few charts to consider… Bitcoin… the ultimate liquidity play, has a rounded top. It is just clinging to support. Below that is nothing but air pockets down to 24,000 it not 19,000. Short term Treasury bonds and … Continue reading
Posted in Recession Risk, stock collapse?
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