Author Archives: The Phoenix

Anyone Who Understands Risk Management Is Watching This Like a Hawk

By Graham Summers, MBA Was it a dead cat bounce… or something else? On Monday, the markets were melting down due to fears of contagion from Evergrande, China’s second largest real estate company, going bankrupt. Since that time, the market … Continue reading

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An Urgent Update on China’s Black Swan

By Graham Summers, MBA The markets have rallied hard on news of a potential Evergrande debt payment. In case you’ve missed this story, Evergrande is a massive property developer in China. The company is effectively insolvent, and with $300 billion … Continue reading

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At Some Point, We Are Revisiting That Blue Line

All eyes are on the Fed today. The Fed is expected to announce its tapering schedule for its current $120 billion per month Quantitative Easing (QE) program. The Fed has been hinting at its plan for months, via both Fed … Continue reading

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This is the Kind of Environment In Which Crashes Can Happen

Stocks got creamed yesterday, but thanks to late day manipulation, they ended up well off the bottom. From a purely technical perspective, the S&P 500 has broken below its 50-day moving average (DMA) for the first time since March 2021. … Continue reading

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China’s Black Swan Has Arrived… Are You Ready?

The market is a sea of red this morning. The issue at hand is China’s massive Evergrande property developer. The company is effectively insolvent, with over $300 billion in bad loans. Many are calling this “China’s Lehman Moment.” The company’s … Continue reading

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Ok, This is TRULY Horrifying!

 Yesterday, I outlined a terrible secret. That secret? That the Fed knows the official inflation measure, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is practically useless for forecasting future inflation. In a little-known paper published in 2001, the Fed found that food inflation, NOT CPI or PCE, … Continue reading

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Trust Me, the Fed Doesn’t Want You to Know This

Yesterday I explained how the official inflation statistic used by policymakers, the Consumer Price Index or CPI, is practically useless. I realize this is quite controversial. After all, everyone on the planet from hedge fund managers to social security administrators … Continue reading

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These Inflation Numbers Are No Joke… a Crisis is Brewing.

The government bean counters are working overtime to hide inflation. Yesterday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) number would be hilarious if it wasn’t so damaging to Americans. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), inflation rose only 0.3% month over … Continue reading

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These Inflation Numbers Are No Joke… a Crisis is Brewing.

The government bean counters are working overtime to hide inflation. Yesterday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) number would be hilarious if it wasn’t so damaging to Americans. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), inflation rose only 0.3% month over … Continue reading

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How to Profit From a Market Crash

Yesterday, I explained why I believe we are due for a period of below average stock market returns. By quick way of review: Inflation is roaring higher. Official inflation measures put it at over 5%. Unofficial, more accurate measures have … Continue reading

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Forget About the Economy, This is How You Know a Bubble is Bursting

One of the most difficult things to learn about the stock market is the fact that it has little, if anything, to do with the real economy. This is a fact borne out by both statistical studies and real-world analysis. … Continue reading

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These Charts Are SCREAMING Inflation

On Friday I outlined a very disturbing reality. That reality? That the Fed is very likely now a political entity. By quick way of review: Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term as Fed Chair ends this year.  The Biden administration has … Continue reading

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The Four Horseman of the Coming Crash, Pt 3

Over the last two days, I’ve outlined THE single most important development you need to see, in order for the market to crash. Think of them as BIG warnings, or the FOUR Horsemen that precede a stock market apocalypse. What … Continue reading

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The Four Horsemen of the Coming Crash, Pt 2

Yesterday I outlined THE single most important development you need to see, in order for the market to crash. Think of them as BIG warnings, or the FOUR Horsemen that precede a stock market apocalypse. What are they? When most … Continue reading

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The Four Horsemen of the Coming Crash, Pt

Over the last few weeks, I’ve been outlining the clear evidence that stocks are in a bubble, arguably the largest stock market bubble of all time.  In truth, however, it’s not just a bubble in stocks, it’s a bubble in … Continue reading

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The Four Horsemen of the Coming Crash, Pt 1

Over the last few weeks, I’ve been outlining the clear evidence that stocks are in a bubble, arguably the largest stock market bubble of all time.  In truth, however, it’s not just a bubble in stocks, it’s a bubble in … Continue reading

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These Sophisticated Traders Are Betting on a 1987-Type Crash

While the stock market continues to rise to new all-time highs, the options markets are betting on a massive crash. If you’re unfamiliar with options, they are securities that give you the right, (but not the requirement) to buy shares … Continue reading

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Yes, It’s a Bubble and Yes It Will Burst Soon

The #1 question I’m asked these days is… “Are stocks in a bubble?” Defining a bubble in stocks is extremely difficult because stock prices are based heavily on Treasury yields, and Treasury yields are at ridiculously low levels due to … Continue reading

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This Company Gave Us a Glimpse Into What’s Coming to the Broader Market

The deflationists had another bad day yesterday. Deflationists argue that inflation doesn’t exist because the Treasury market isn’t acting as if inflation is a problem. They always fail to mention that the Treasury market is ALSO the most manipulated market … Continue reading

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These Three Charts Are Issuing a Major Warning to Stock Investors

So, will it be stagflation after all? It is already clear that inflation has entered the financial system. Those who claim that this cannot be true because Treasury bonds aren’t showing it fail to mention that Treasury bonds are the … Continue reading

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