Author Archives: The Phoenix

Warning: The Bounce is About to End… Next Comes the REAL Fireworks

Stocks are bouncing this morning. But that is to be expected. Every major collapse follows a clear pattern: 1) The initial drop 2) The bounce to test former support. 3) The REAL fireworks. Stocks are currently in phase 2… as … Continue reading

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Are We Setting Up for Another 1987-Type Crash? Part 2

Over the last few weeks, I’ve been outlining the clear evidence that stocks are in a bubble, arguably the largest stock market bubble of all time. With that in mind, yesterday I asked a critical question… Are We Setting Up … Continue reading

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Are We Setting Up for Another 1987-Type Crash?

Over the last few weeks, I’ve been outlining the clear evidence that stocks are in a bubble, arguably the largest stock market bubble of all time. In truth, however, it’s not just a bubble in stocks, it’s a bubble in … Continue reading

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When This Happens the U.S. Will Be Just Weeks Away From a Debt Crisis

By Graham Summers, MBA The market has rallied aggressively on the belief that a Debt Ceiling deal will be made.  Celebrating a Debt Ceiling deal is like polishing the brass on the Titanic. The U.S. has $28.8 trillion in debt. … Continue reading

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Pop Quiz: What is the Top Performing Sector Right Now?

Pop quiz time… what is the single best investment opportunity on the planet right now? Bitcoin? Penny stocks? Tech? Try Energy. The “left for dead” sector is absolutely on fire right now. The top performing sector in the markets is … Continue reading

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Not One Sector Is in an Uptrend… Is A Crash About to Hit?

Stocks are now on the edge of a cliff. The S&P 500 broke below its 50-DMA two weeks ago. It has since failed to reclaim this line. That is the first time this has happened this year. The good news … Continue reading

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Stocks Are Sitting on the Ledge of a Cliff

Stocks are now on the edge of a cliff. The S&P 500 broke below its 50-DMA two weeks ago. It has since failed to reclaim this line. That is the first time this has happened this year. The good news … Continue reading

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September Ends BADLY… is a Crash About to Hit?

Stocks ended the month with an extremely ugly candle. As the below chart shows, September ended outside the range of August (purple circle in the chart below). Historically, these developments usually resolve with the stock market testing its 10-month moving … Continue reading

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Stocks Need to Rally Hard Now or We Have a Top in Place

Today is also the second to last day of the week, which means we are about to see a new weekly candle on the charts. If the markets do not rally hard into the end of the week, we will … Continue reading

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The Market is in Serious Trouble

The markets are bouncing today, but nothing has been resolved. The technical damage from the last few weeks has been horrific. The two most heavily weighted sectors in the S&P 500 (Tech and Healthcare) are in confirmed downtrends. Tech (XLK) … Continue reading

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If You Think Inflation is GOOD For Stocks… Take a Look at This

The Fed continues to push the narrative that inflation is transitory. On one level, Fed officials are correct. Everything is transitory. But the Fed isn’t being philosophical here…it’s attempting to argue that they don’t need to do anything, and the current wave of … Continue reading

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Bonds Just Called the Fed’s Bluff… Stocks Are on Borrowed Time

The biggest development last week was the breakout in the 10-year U.S. Treasury. The 10-year US Treasury is arguably the single most important bond in the world. The yield on this bond represents the risk-free rate of return against which … Continue reading

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Anyone Who Understands Risk Management Is Watching This Like a Hawk

By Graham Summers, MBA Was it a dead cat bounce… or something else? On Monday, the markets were melting down due to fears of contagion from Evergrande, China’s second largest real estate company, going bankrupt. Since that time, the market … Continue reading

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An Urgent Update on China’s Black Swan

By Graham Summers, MBA The markets have rallied hard on news of a potential Evergrande debt payment. In case you’ve missed this story, Evergrande is a massive property developer in China. The company is effectively insolvent, and with $300 billion … Continue reading

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At Some Point, We Are Revisiting That Blue Line

All eyes are on the Fed today. The Fed is expected to announce its tapering schedule for its current $120 billion per month Quantitative Easing (QE) program. The Fed has been hinting at its plan for months, via both Fed … Continue reading

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This is the Kind of Environment In Which Crashes Can Happen

Stocks got creamed yesterday, but thanks to late day manipulation, they ended up well off the bottom. From a purely technical perspective, the S&P 500 has broken below its 50-day moving average (DMA) for the first time since March 2021. … Continue reading

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China’s Black Swan Has Arrived… Are You Ready?

The market is a sea of red this morning. The issue at hand is China’s massive Evergrande property developer. The company is effectively insolvent, with over $300 billion in bad loans. Many are calling this “China’s Lehman Moment.” The company’s … Continue reading

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Ok, This is TRULY Horrifying!

 Yesterday, I outlined a terrible secret. That secret? That the Fed knows the official inflation measure, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is practically useless for forecasting future inflation. In a little-known paper published in 2001, the Fed found that food inflation, NOT CPI or PCE, … Continue reading

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Trust Me, the Fed Doesn’t Want You to Know This

Yesterday I explained how the official inflation statistic used by policymakers, the Consumer Price Index or CPI, is practically useless. I realize this is quite controversial. After all, everyone on the planet from hedge fund managers to social security administrators … Continue reading

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These Inflation Numbers Are No Joke… a Crisis is Brewing.

The government bean counters are working overtime to hide inflation. Yesterday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) number would be hilarious if it wasn’t so damaging to Americans. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), inflation rose only 0.3% month over … Continue reading

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