The U.S. and China unveiled a preliminary trade deal on Monday unleashing RABID buying in the stock market. Is this trade deal and subsequent stock market rally legit… or is this all just a headline driven bunch of BS and stocks are about to roll over and crash again?
This week, our host Graham Summers, MBA delves into the details of the trade deal, what they mean for the two countries, and whether or not the lows are in for stocks. Graham also dives into the macro data in the U.S., specifically what consumer spending and inflation are telling us about the true state of the economy.
Finally, Graham breaks down the recent price action in stocks, what the next money making move will be, and where gold and bitcoin are headed.If you’re looking to make money from the markets, you NEED to hear this!
A raging debate is taking place between the bulls and the bears.
That debate?
Whether the lows are in… or if stocks are about to roll over and retest the lows or even break down the new lows.
Unfortunately for the bears, or anyone else who has missed the rally thus far, history and multiple metrics point to THE lows being in.
First and foremost, the S&P 500 completed a nine-session win streak two Fridays ago. The financial media likes to claim that this kind of win streak only occurs in the context of recessions, but that is simply not true.
As Ryan Detrick has noted, since 1928 there have been 29 instances in which stocks closed up nine days in a row. Only THREE of them occurred in the context of recessions. So, the odds greatly favor recent price action being bullish, NOT bearish.
Secondly, the month of April saw an incredible swing in prices that ended with a VERY bullish development. At their lowest, stocks were down over 11% for the month. However, because of the incredible rally into month-end, the S&P 500 ended April only down 1%.
This massive swing in momentum from being sharply down to sharply up triggered a Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT), an EXTREMELY rare and EXTREMELY bullish development.
If you’re unfamiliar with ZBTs, one is triggered when the percentage of advancing stocks on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) increases from below 40% to above 61.5% within 10 trading days.
There have only been 16 ZBT signals since 1957. Every single time, the stock market has been higher both six and 12 months later. Here again, this strongly suggests THE lows are in and a major bear market is not about to unfold.
We also must consider sentiment.
According to the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey, more than 50% of investors were bearish on stocks for 11 weeks straight up until this week. That is HIGHLY unusual as historically an average of only 31% of investors are bearish at any given time.
Indeed, 11 straight weeks of more than half of investors being bearish on stocks is an EXTREME reading. Since its inception in 1987, the AAII weekly survey has never seen such an extreme streak of bearishness. Not during the Tech Crash, not during the Great Financial Crisis, and not even during the pandemic has this great a percentage of investors been bearish on stocks for this long.
This is the kind of sentiment you see at major market bottoms, NOT at the start of new bear markets. So here again, the odds greatly favor that THE lows are in, and stocks will move higher.
Finally, peak to trough, stocks declined 18.9% from the February highs. This is what you would call a “bear market” or “near bear market” (Wall Street views a bear market as being a 20% decline).
As I write this, the S&P 500 has recovered more than HALF of that decline. Since 1956 there have been 16 instances during which stocks staged a bear or near bear market decline and then recovered half of the drop. In only one instance did stocks make new lows after recovering half of the initial decline. But in EVERY instance, stocks were higher a year later. (h/t Ryan Detrick). And not by a little, by an average of 18%!
Add it all up, and you’ve got:
A nine-day win streak: a rare and historically bullish signal (89% of the time).
A Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT) which has a 100% track record for stocks being higher six and 12 months later.
The kind of extreme bearish sentiment typically associated with major bottoms, not the start of new bear markets.
Stocks recovering half of a bear/near bear market decline, which has a 100% track record for stocks being higher a year later with an average gain of 18%.
Like I said at the start of this article, it is HIGHLY likely that THE lows are in. This is not to say that stocks will go straight up from here, but that the overall trend is now UP.
And while stocks should do well in general, certain companies will produce extraordinary gains due to their being A) high growth and B) unaffected by the trade war/ increased tariffs.
We detail four such companies in a Special Investment Report Tariff Proof Stocks: four high growth companies unaffected by the trade war.
As I write this ALL FOUR of them just hit new all-time highs.
Normally this report is only available to our paying clients, but in light of what’s happening in the markets today, we are making just 99 copies available to the general public.
For five months now, the Fed has refused to cut interest rates despite clear cracks showing up in the labor market, as well as companies like Southwest Airlines, Chipotle, McDonalds and even Walmart warning about a downturn in consumer spending.
The reason the Fed gave for sitting on its hands was that inflationary risks were rising due to the upcoming trade war. In simple terms, the Fed believed that the Trump administration’s proposed tariffs would result in corporations being forced to raise prices, which in turn would trigger another wave of inflation hitting the financial system.
Never mind that there is little if any evidence that this has been the case for other countries with tariffs. The 400 economics PhDs, 150 research assistants, and other big wigs at the Fed were convinced that their models were more accurate than reality.
Well, yesterday’s inflation data put that delusion to bed. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April showed the LOWEST inflation level since February 2021.
Whatever uptick in inflation the Fed had imagined would appear has not. And in fact, inflation is trending down again.
So, inflation is at 2.4%… and the Fed has rates at 4.5% and is still running Quantitative Tightening (QT). This is EXTREMELY tight monetary policy and it’s highly likely something is going to break soon.
With inflation at 2.5% and rates at 4.5%, this means that real rates, or inflation-adjusted rates are at positive 2%. Historically, over the last 25 years, any time real rates have been this positive, it’s only been a matter of time before something broke in the financial system
See for yourself.
Anyone who listened to the Fed has missed out on some EXTRAORDINARY returns from the stock market. While many stocks were hurt by the trade war, certain key companies have already moved past it and are rocketing higher.
We detail four such companies in a Special Investment Report Tariff Proof Stocks: four high growth companies unaffected by the trade war.
As I write this ALL FOUR of them just hit new all-time highs.
Normally this report is only available to our paying clients, but in light of what’s happening in the markets today, we are making just 99 copies available to the general public.
As we keep stating, a trade deal is coming between the U.S. and China. This means THE lows are in for the markets.
Over the weekend, China officials met with their U.S. counterparts in Switzerland. All reports signal the talks were productive with U.S. trade representatives noting that the two countries were able to come to basic agreements quite quickly.
We were not surprised.
China has no other option here as its economy is on the verge of economic collapse. Factories are closing daily. Protests are erupting with workers demanding back pay after not being paid for weeks. Youth unemployment is skyrocketing. Indeed, things have become so dire in the People’s Republic that it has simply stopped reporting numerous economic data points as Jeffrey Tucker notes.
Starting the last several months, and, in some cases, dating back several years, China has gone dark in reporting the following: land sales, foreign investment, unemployment numbers, business confidence, numbers of investors in financial markets, real estate valuation, retail sales, and even vital data on cremations so that health authorities have no idea what is going on. The bureaus have simply stopped reporting.
Source: The Epoch Times
Put simply, China NEEDS a deal that results in reduced tariffs, or it will enter a deflationary death spiral. This doesn’t mean a trade deal will come rapidly (although that seems to be the case). Rather it simply means that as far as the trade war between the U.S. and China is concerned, things are improving and will continue to improve.
This means THE lows are in and stocks are ready to rocket higher. The S&P 500 has already erased ALL their losses since Liberation Day and is now breaking above its 200-day simple moving average (DSMA) for the first time since March.
If you’ve missed out on this move, do NOT be alarmed. Things are just getting started here. Indeed, both gold and bitcoin has already shown us what is coming: a melt up in which risk assets got to levels few can imagine.
So, what does this mean for stocks and investors?
THE lows are in. And while the markets as a whole should work their way higher, certain investments are poised for truly EXTRAORDINARY gains based on this unique environment. We detail three of them it in a Special Investment Report titled How to Profit a Inflation.
Normally this report is only available to our paying clients, but in light of what’s happening in the markets today, we are making just 99 copies available to the general public.
The Trump administration just gave one of the most blatant “tells” in investing history.
Yesterday, President Trump told investors to “buy stocks” because the U.S. economy was going to be like a “rocket ship” as the U.S. begins signing trade deals.
Yes, President Trump is famous for making bold, oftentimes extreme statements. But he is also the President of the United States. And as such he wields INCREDIBLE power over the economy and financial system.
In this context, regardless of your feelings concerning the President and his agenda, you HAVE to take note. Rarely if ever are investors given EXPLICIT signals by the elites as to what is coming down the pike.
Why is President Trump doing this? What does he see that we don’t?
President Trump has figured out that stocks HAVE to go up as a matter of national security.
Over 60% of American households have exposure to the stock market. Stocks are the 2nd most owned asset class behind real estate. Stocks comprise the bulk of American retirement accounts.
Put simply, Americans’ wealth LITERALLY requires stocks to remain strong. It is not merely a matter of profits… it is a matter of national security: a stock market crash can cripple the economy as consumers panic and cut back on spending.
President Trump figured this out when the Trade War erased $11 trillion in wealth in a matter of two weeks, and consumer spending/ sentiment imploded. As I noted last week, companies ranging from Southwest Airlines, McDonalds, PepsiCo, Chipotle and even Walmart noted that consumers pulled back on spending in ways not seen since the pandemic.
Again, all it took was two weeks of stocks falling to trigger a consumer panic that would have easily resulted in a recession had things not changed course.
So where do things go from here?
The Trump administration has very publicly to prioritize the markets. The President himself literally told Americans to buy stocks yesterday. This doesn’t mean that stocks will go straight up… but it DOES mean that the administration WANTS a raging bull market.
So, what does this mean for stocks and investors?
THE lows are in. And while the markets as a whole should work their way higher, certain investments are poised for truly EXTRAORDINARY gains based on this unique environment. We detail three of them it in a Special Investment Report titled How to Profit a Inflation.
Normally this report is only available to our paying clients, but in light of what’s happening in the markets today, we are making just 99 copies available to the general public.
The Fed will be forced to start easing sooner rather than later.
Yesterday’s Fed FOMC announcement was a non-event, with the Fed leaving rates unchanged. The more interesting aspect of the meeting came from the level of delusion that Fed Chair Jerome Powell maintained during the subsequent Q&A session.
Specifically, Chair Powell maintained his bizarre argument that tariffs are inflationary, and could be highly inflationary depending on how high they remain. He said this with a straight face after acknowledging that consumer and business sentiment has fallen due to the trade war.
So… business and consumers feel worse due to the trade war, which means they’re less likely to spend money… and this is somehow inflationary?
No, the trade war has been highly DE-flationary, with companies ranging from Southwest Airlines to Chipotle, McDonalds, PepsiCo and even Walmart stating that consumer spending has taken a BIG hit in the last month. In some cases, the collapse in spending has been the worst since the pandemic!
Moreover, there are clear and OBVIOUS cracks appearing in the labor market. Average Weekly Hours for All Employees in the private sector has collapsed down to pandemic levels. In fact, the only time it’s been lower in the last 20 years was during the Great Financial Crisis!
Let’s cut through the nonsense here. The Fed is WAY behind the curve once again. Rather than taking action to cushion the coming economic contraction, the Fed is prattling on about the potential inflationary impacts of tariffs (many of which haven’t even been put into place yet)!
We’ve seen this story before. It ends with the Fed realizing it screwed up and panicking with rapid rate cuts and more QE. I know it. You know it. And gold knows it, which is why it’s ripping higher once again.
So, what does this mean for stocks and investors?
THE lows are in. And while the markets as a whole should work their way higher, certain investments are poised for truly EXTRAORDINARY gains based on this unique environment. We detail three of them it in a Special Investment Report titled How to Profit a Inflation.
Normally this report is only available to our paying clients, but in light of what’s happening in the markets today, we are making just 99 copies available to the general public.
When the Trump administration launched its trade war on 4/2/25, the media teemed with analysis that this approach was a colossal mistake, that China, not the U.S. was in a position of strength, and that ultimately the tariffs would backfire and wreck the U.S. economy.
All of this proved to be wrong.
It is China’s economy, not the U.S.’s, that is on the verge of collapse. Factory closures are happening daily, igniting protests around the country. Youth unemployment is skyrocketing. And the entire economy is on the verge of a deflationary death spiral as it is forced to dump goods into its domestic markets to sell them for whatever price it can get.
As a result of this, the People’s Republic has “come to the table” with some major gestures of good will in the last week.
Specifically, China has:
Removed tariffs on nearly 25% of U.S. imports to the country.
Offered to help the U.S. with the latter’s fentanyl crisis.
Formally stated that it would like to meet to negotiate a trade deal.
The last one (#3) just hit the news wires last night after the market closed. It’s not a rumor either, it was posted by China’s Commerce Ministry.
We get confirmation of this from the U.S.’s Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent who stated that he would be meeting with China’s Vice Premiere in Switzerland in the coming days.
Stock futures surged on the news.
So, what does this mean for stocks and investors?
THE lows are in.
I don’t mean that stocks will go straight up from here. The typical trade deal can take months if not years to finalize. But stocks discount the future and the future regarding trade relations between China and the U.S. is improving. Things are certainly better today than they were a month ago!
This is a good thing.
And while the markets as a whole should work their way higher, certain stocks are poised for truly EXTRAORDINARY gains based on this unique environment. We detail three of them it in a Special Investment Report titled How to Profit a Inflation.
Normally this report is only available to our paying clients, but in light of what’s happening in the markets today, we are making just 99 copies available to the general public.
The pullback in gold appears to be ending with the precious metal once again catching a bid. This is extremely bullish. Remember, gold ripped from $2,950 to over $3,500 per ounce in the first half of April alone. The fact the precious metal has only corrected down to $3,200 per ounce before catching another bid indicates there is incredible demand from investors.
What’s going on here?
What’s going on is that collectively, the investment world has realized that gold has certain key attributes that make it incredibly attractive in this environment.
For one thing, gold doesn’t have earnings that will be negatively impacted by tariffs. Gold also doesn’t have to hit its quarterly numbers or maintain its annual forecast to stay in Wall Street’s good graces (see what happened to Palantir last night, which is down over 7%).
Gold doesn’t have to worry about the finding new suppliers to avoid tariffs and duties. It doesn’t commit accounting fraud, engage in stupid mergers than offer no shareholder value, nor does it go out of business.
But most importantly, gold is a hedge against inflation. And the financial system is slowly realizing that the only way out of the current economic environment involves central banks printing money.
Both Europe and Japan are on the verge of recession. The U.S. is not far behind, with numerous signals that the consumer who accounts for the bulk of economic growth is finally breaking down (PepsiCo, Chipotle, Southwest Airlines, McDonalds and even Walmart have issued warnings on this).
Bear in mind, these economies are starting to roll over when their governments are already engaged in fiscal madness. Europe is running a fiscal deficit equal to 3% of its GDP. Japan’s is equal to 4% of its GDP. And the U.S. fiscal deficit is equal to 6% of GDP.
As the chart below reveals, this is an emergency level deficit, the kind typically used to cushion a recession. And the U.S. is running it while the economy is still growing! Imagine what will happen when the U.S. economy rolls over and both Uncle Sam and the Fed move to stimulate to cushion the contraction.
This is what gold has figured out: that central banks and governments will soon need to stimulate/ print even more money. And this will unleash another wave of inflation/ currency devaluation.
If you don’t believe me, consider that gold is breaking out against EVERY major world currency: the $USD, the Euro, the Yen and even the Franc.
The writing is on the wall. Gold is going to be a major beneficiary of what’s coming. Smart investors are actively taking steps now to profit from this.
We detail this situation, what’s to come, and THREE investments to profit from it in a Special Investment Report titled How to Profit a Inflation.
Normally this report is only available to our paying clients, but in light of what’s happening in the markets today, we are making just 99 copies available to the general public.
When President Trump announced “Liberation Day” on April 2nd 2025, the media teemed with analysis and editorials from various gurus that it was a colossal mistake, that China was in a position of strategic strength compared to the U.S., that this position of strength would mean that China wouldn’t need a deal, and that the U.S. would ultimately lose the trade war.
All of this is now proving to be incorrect.
China’s economy is teetering on the brink of collapse, with factories closing daily.
China’s factory activity contracted at the fastest pace in 16 months in April, a factory survey showed on Wednesday, keeping alive calls for further stimulus as Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” package of tariffs snapped two months of recovery.
Source: Reuters.
Youth unemployment is skyrocketing with reports indicating that the “official” numbers out of China, as bad as they are, actually DOWNPLAY the situation.
Joblessness among youth in Chinese cities rose a second month in February, tracking the nation’s jobless rate which reached a two-year high, official data showed on Thursday.
The urban jobless rate for 16-to-24-year-olds, excluding students, grew to 16.9% from 16.1% in January, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics.
Source: Reuters
China’s stock market has not been immune to the situation either. The mainstream media in the West has been quick to point out how bad the trade war has been for U.S. stocks, but the situation has been as bad if not worse in China.
By the look of things, China has hit its “breaking point.”
Late last week, the People’s Republic made two MASSIVE gestures to the U.S. They were:
Exempting a quarter of U.S. imports from tariffs for the first time in years.
Asking the Trump administration what it wants China to do regarding its involvement in the U.S.’s fentanyl crisis.
The message here is clear: China wants a deal.
Yes, there will be a lot of back and forth… and an actual trade deal will likely take months to accomplish, but a deal is coming.
This changes everything as far the financial system is concerned.
Stocks discount the future. With China signaling that it is interested in making a deal, the future, at least economically speaking, is better today than it was a month ago… which means that THE lows are likely in for stocks.
This is not to say stocks will go straight up from here. But it DOES indicate that the worst is quite possibly behind us as far as the markets are concerned for the next few months.
And while the markets as a whole should work their way higher, certain stocks are poised for truly EXTRAORDINARY gains based on this unique environment.
We’ve outlined three of them in our Special Investment Report How to Profit From Inflation.
Normally this report is only available to our paying clients, but in light of what’s happening in the markets today, we are making just 99 copies available to the general public.
“Are the markets about to reverse course and crash?”
This is the #1 question on investors’ minds today. The stock market has just staged one of its most spectacular “V-shaped” recoveries in history. And many investors are wondering if the worst is over.
Let’s break down the move in detail.
The initial decline following April 2nd’s “Liberation Day” press conference in the Rose Garden was the 5th fastest 10% decline in the last 75 years. Stocks don’t like uncertainty and the Trump administration’s “shock and awe” announcement of global tariffs against every major trade partner created tremendous uncertainty.
Remember, 28% of S&P 500 revenues come from international markets. All those revenues would be impacted by tariffs. Moreover, few if any companies produce their goods from start to finish. In that context, the trade war had the potential to badly disrupt supply chains, resulting in higher costs, longer production times, and lower profit margins.
Peak to trough, the S&P 500 declined 20% triggering what Wall Street believes to signal a “bear market” was underway. At their nadir, stocks were trading THREE standard deviations away from their long-term trend, as denoted by the 200-day simple moving average (DSMA).
This was an extreme reading and one that suggested a “snapback” rally would occur. And that is precisely what has happened. Stocks have closed higher nine straight days since the lows, with the S&P 500 now back at “the scene of the crime” trading at the same levels at which it was priced when the Liberation Day tariffs were announced.
Historically, this kind of rebound/ price action has been quite bullish in the intermediate term: six to 12 months out stocks are usually higher after a bounce like this. However, in the near-term things are not so clear.
While many stocks are up quite a lot from the lows, Big Tech, which comprises 30% of the S&P 500’s overall weight and nearly 20% of S&P 500 total profits, has lagged. It will be VERY difficult for the overall market to storm higher without these companies participating in the rally.
Consider Apple (AAPL), the 2nd largest company in the S&P 500 (and the world) with a $3+ trillion market cap. While the S&P 500 has reclaimed its 50-DSMA and is moving to challenge its 200-DSMA, AAPL remains well below both lines. In fact, AAPL was recently rejected at its 50-DSMA and has since turned back down after announcing disappointing 1Q25 results.
None of this is good. If AAPL and Big Tech stocks like it cannot catch a bid, the overall market will struggle. These are the stocks you need to keep an eye on in terms of determining what the next major market move will be.
And if you’re worried about a crash happening, you need to ignore sentiment and “feelings” and rely on quantitative tools that have accurately predicted them in the past.
We’re developed precisely such a tool: a highly accurate “crash trigger” that went off before the 1987 Crash, the Tech Crash, and the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.
We detail this trigger, how it works, and what it’s saying about the market today in a Special Investment Report titled How to Predict a Crash.
Normally this report is only available to our paying clients, but in light of what’s happening in the economy today, we are making just 99 copies available to the broader public.
As I’ve noted over the past week, while the Fed twiddles its thumbs and frets about the potentially inflationary impact of tariffs, the real economy is rolling over.
The American consumer accounts for 60%-70% of U.S. GDP. The consumer, not the Fed, is what drives the economy. And all signs are beginning to point towards the consumer being “tapped out.”
In the last two weeks, management teams at Southwest Airlines, PepsiCo, Chipotle, and even Walmart have warned that consumers are cutting back on spending. It’s one thing to see one sector of the economy issue a warning. But when you’ve got multiple sectors (airlines, restaurants, consumer discretionary, and retail), all doing this at the same time, you know it’s getting serious.
Well, we can now add McDonalds, the largest fast-food restaurant in the world, to the list of companies issuing major warnings.
Yesterday, McDonalds announced that same-store sales declined 3.6% in the first quarter of 2025. This is the worst quarterly drop since the shutdowns/ PANDEMIC. The company also noted that spending by low-income and middle-income consumers were down nearly DOUBLE DIGITS from a year ago.
Again, this is McDonalds we’re talking about, not a high-end restaurant. And it’s yet another signal that the REAL economy is rolling over right before our eyes. Like I mentioned at the start of this article, things are getting serious.
So where do things go from here?
Most likely in the same way they played out in 2000, 2007 and 2020: the economy will roll over, the Fed will realize it’s WAY behind the curve and start panicking by cutting rates aggressively and printing trillions of dollars in new money to prop up the financial system.
Those investors who are properly positioned for this will make literal fortunes. Those who ignore the warning signs… not so much. You only have to look at what gold and stocks have done in the last month to understand what I mean: there will be MAJOR winners and MAJOR losers in the markets.
The odds of a stock market crash are now higher than at any point since the pandemic.
If you’ve not prepared for this, the time to do so is NOW before this unfolds.
Indeed, our proprietary Crash Trigger is now on red alert. This trigger went off before the 1987 Crash, the Tech Crash, and the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.
We detail this trigger, how it works, and what it’s saying about the market today in a Special Investment Report titled How to Predict a Crash.
Normally this report is only available to our paying clients, but in light of what’s happening in the economy today, we are making just 99 copies available to the general public.
As I write this, billions of dollars in capital are fleeing paper assets and moving into hard assets.
See for yourself.
Below is a chart of the price of gold plotted against the price of the S&P 500. When gold outperforms the S&P 500, this line rises. And when the S&P 500 outperforms gold, this line falls. As you can see, after 10 years of stocks dramatically outperforming gold, the tables are about to turn. Once this ratio breaks above resistance, the door is open to a truly shocking move.
What is going on here?
What’s going on is that capital has figured out that central banks are about to commence their next major round of money printing. Europe and Japan’s economies are on the brink of recession. The U.S. economy is showing signs of duress as well, with everyone from Chipotle to Southwest Airlines to PepsiCo and even Walmart noting the American consumer is under duress.
Put simply, it’s only a matter of time before central banks are forced to panic, cutting rates and printing money by the trillions again. And this is going to ignite a truly jaw-dropping period of returns for those properly positioned for it.
Indeed, the charts for many gold miners are breaking out in MAJOR ways.
Franco Nevada (FNV.TO)
Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM.TO)
The financial system is SCREAMING about what’s coming. And those investors who are properly positioned for it are making literal fortunes.
We detail this situation, what’s to come, and THREE investments to profit from it in a Special Investment Report titled How to Profit a Inflation.
Normally this report is only available to our paying clients, but in light of what’s happening in the markets today, we are making just 99 copies available to the general public.
As I keep warning, a tsunami of liquidity/ money printing is about to hit the financial system.
Indeed, by the look of things, it’s coming even sooner than I expected!
While the Fed focuses on the deeply flawed and highly gimmicked “official” economic data in the U.S., REAL WORLD signals are telling us the economy is rolling over in a big way.
Some items of note.
Discount airline Southwest’s CEO Bob Jordan recently noted that air travel is declining in a way not seen since the pandemic. Jordan commented “I don’t care if you call it a recession or not, in this industry that’s a recession.”
Southwest is not the only company noting a sharp decline in consumer spending and economic activity.
PepsiCo cut its earnings per share forecast for the entire year amidst heightened “economic uncertainty.” The company’s CFO stated that, “we are probably not feeling as good about the consumer as we were a few months ago” and noted consumers were even pulling back on buying snacks!
But wait, it gets worse.
Chipotle, which is usually one of the strongest fast casual restaurant chains in the U.S., just reported its first decline in same-store sales since 2020. Management noted that consumers are cutting spending amidst economic “uncertainty” (read: a recession is coming if not already here).
Heck, even Walmart’s CEO has noted that “budget-pressured” consumers were exhibiting “stressed behaviors” due to money running out “before the month is done.”
Again, this is WALMART we’re talking about. And even it is noting consumers are tapped out.
Let me ask you, if airlines, snacks, restaurants, and even discount retailers are all noting a sharp pullback in consumer spending, what do you think this means for the economy?
The answer is simple: the economy is rolling over into a recession, if it’s not already in one. This is going to panic the Fed into a truly insane amount of money printing. And the markets know it.
Case in point, gold just erupted to new all-time highs in every single major currency. The precious metal is SCREAMING that the only way out of what’s coming is more money printing/ stimulus/ and central bank interventions.
The time to prepare for what’s coming is NOW before it hits. Those investors who are properly positioned for it stand to make fortunes.
We detail this situation, what’s to come, and THREE investments to profit from it in a Special Investment Report titled How to Profit a Inflation.
Normally this report is only available to our paying clients, but in light of what’s happening in the markets today, we are making just 99 copies available to the general public.
This is the #1 question I’m being asked by clients. The answer is actually quite simple: gold recognizes that there is no situation in which the Fed doesn’t end up printing money in the next six months.
The economy is rolling over. Consumer spending accounts for 70%-75% of U.S. GDP. And consumers are panicking due to the trade war with some readings coming in at levels not seen since the Great Financial Crisis.
I’m not exaggerating here.
The Survey of Consumers from the University of Michigan showed that consumer confidence has declined four months in a row. That same survey showed that the share of consumers expecting unemployment to rise this year had risen five months straight and was at its highest level since 2009 (after the Great Financial Crisis).
At the same time as consumers are panicking, the stock market has staged one of its most aggressive collapses in history, with stocks declining over 20% peak to trough in just six weeks. Over $11 TRILLION in wealth has been erased.
The Fed claims they will NOT act to support the markets, but who are we kidding? Do you really think the Fed would stomach a deflationary collapse that triggers systemic risk?
In simple terms, it’s only a matter of time before the Fed turns on the printing presses again.
Small wonder then that gold has been on a tear. Gold has figured out that there is NO WAY out of the current financial mess that doesn’t involve money printing. Indeed, if the policymakers’ actions during the pandemic taught us anything, it’s that the only thing they DO know how to do when stuff hits the fan is print money.
The precious metal is currently correcting, but don’t be fooled, this bull market in gold is NOWHERE near over.
And all of this is happening at a time when the $USD is on beginning to collapse.
This is an extremely dangerous situation. Money printing by the Fed will only accelerate the $USD collapse… which will ignite another round of inflation. If you’re not preparing for this, the time to act is NOW before it happens.
We detail this situation, what’s to come, and THREE investments to profit from it in a Special Investment Report titled How to Profit a Inflation.
Normally this report is only available to our paying clients, but in light of what’s happening in the markets today, we are making just 99 copies available to the general public.
Actually, scratch that… gold has been on fire for decades. It’s outperformed stocks since 2000 by a wide margin.
Wait, what? You mean to tell me that gold, which Warren Buffett famously claimed doesn’t do anything but “sit there” has been a better investment that stocks, which demonstrate the best of humanity’s innovation and productivity?
Yep.
The reason?
The below chart. This is a chart of the purchasing power of the $USD. As you can see, since 2000 alone, the $USD has lost HALF its purchasing power.
This is what happens when you allow the government to spend an ever increasingly amount of money, while simultaneously allowing your central bank to print new money and use it to buy government debt: your currency collapses.
Gold is perhaps the ultimate hedge against a currency collapse. Small wonder then that it’s gone absolutely vertical as the $USD lost 10% in the last two months.
So where do things go from here?
The U.S. economy is rolling over which means it’s only a matter of time before the Fed is forced to start printing money again. Throw in the fact that despite all the hoopla about DOGE, the Trump administration continues to run “Crisis type” deficits, and the door is open to a full-scale $USD collapse.
This is an extremely dangerous situation. The odds of a U.S. dollar collapse are now higher than at any point in the last 30 years.
We detail this situation, what’s to come, and THREE investments to profit from it in a Special Investment Report titled How to Profit a Inflation.
Normally this report is only available to our paying clients, but in light of what’s happening in the markets today, we are making just 99 copies available to the general public.
The greenback has collapsed over 10% in the last two months. The driving factor has been investors fleeing the U.S. and its currency in response to the Trump administration introducing an aggressive trade war.
Those who take the long-term view here will be asking, “what’s the big deal? The $USD traded lower that this back in 2020… and that turned out fine.”
The U.S. has added over $10 trillion in debt since that time. It’s now sporting a Debt to GDP of 120%. And it will need to roll over some $9 trillion in debt in the next 12 months.
This is a time when you want money FLOWING INTO the U.S., not out of it. How will the U.S. manage to roll over all that debt with foreign investors fleeing the $USD and $USD-denominated assets?
Gold has figured out what’s coming. The precious metal has been on a tear, ripping from $2,950 per ounce to $3,433 per ounce in the last two months alone.
And what do you think happens to stocks if the $USD collapses?
This is an extremely dangerous situation. The odds of a stock market crash are now higher than at any point since the pandemic.
Indeed, our proprietary Crash Trigger is now on red alert. This trigger went off before the 1987 Crash, the Tech Crash, and the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.
We detail this trigger, how it works, and what it’s saying about the market today in a Special Investment Report titled How to Predict a Crash.
Normally this report is only available to our paying clients, but in light of what’s happening in the markets today, we are making just 99 copies available to the general public.
For years, Dr Paul has proclaimed that the U.S. government should NOT be engaged in reckless spending, that U.S. debt levels were reaching the levels at which we could expect a crisis, and that the U.S. currency, the $USD was in danger of collapse.
I’ve been thinking a lot about Dr. Paul lately as the financial system lurches towards another crisis. Specifically, I vividly remember Dr. Paul telling me about a private lunch he once had with former Fed Chair Paul Volcker in which Volcker told him that the Fed is OK with orderly selling, but that it’s only when things get DISORDERLY that the Fed panics.
Well, buckle up, because things are about to get disorderly.
The $USD is collapsing. It just took out critical support in the overnight session. This is a huge deal as the last time the $USD was at the these levels, it had $13 TRILLION less in debt and the economy was about to erupt higher as the Fed and federal government pumped $11 trillion in stimulus/ interventions into it.
Today, the $USD is collapsing while the economy is rolling over and the Fed has explicitly stated it is NOT coming to the rescue. When asked if the Fed would intervene if the stock market collapsed, Fed Chair Jerome Powell explicitly stated, “No, with an exclamation.”
Meanwhile, the bond market is on edge. The U.S. now has over $36 trillion in debt outstanding. Uncle Sam needs to roll over a quarter of this ($9 TRILLION) in the next 12 months.
This is enough for concern even during ideal circumstances. But today, it’s happening at a time when Treasury yields are on the verge of breaking out to the upside! The debt crisis Dr. Paul has been warning about for years could very well be finally happening. What happens to the debt markets if the U.S. tries to roll over its debt while bonds are collapsing/ yields are soaring?!
And finally, stocks are rolling over again, after being rejected at resistance. This is a BAD sign as it indicates that the market can’t even get enough momentum to put in a significant bounce after one of the worst corrections in the last 75 years.
Stocks have already erased $11 trillion in wealth in the two months. By the look of things, we’re nowhere near the wealth destruction being over.
This is the kind of environment in which things become “disorderly” AKA crashes happen. It is clear the financial system is on edge. And this is all happening in the context of both a trade war and a war between the White House and the Fed.
This is an extremely dangerous situation. The odds of a stock market crash are now higher than at any point since the pandemic.
Indeed, our proprietary Crash Trigger is now on red alert. This trigger went off before the 1987 Crash, the Tech Crash, and the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.
We detail this trigger, how it works, and what it’s saying about the market today in a Special Investment Report titled How to Predict a Crash.
Normally this report is only available to our paying clients, but in light of what’s happening in the markets today, we are making just 99 copies available to the general public.
The #1 mandate for the Fed is to maintain financial stability. That is literally the Fed’s job. It’s supposedly why the Fed was created in 1913.
The stock market just experienced one of its worst collapses in history. It was literally the 5th fastest 10% decline in the last 75 years. All told some $11 TRILLION in wealth has been erased. And it’s not as if the markets have stopped breaking down. The chart of the S&P 500 is UGLY.
At the same time, the U.S. dollar is breaking multi-year support.
And the long end of the Treasury bond market is in danger of breaking down to the point that yields are on the verge of erupting higher. This is what debt spirals are made of!
Put simply, the ENTIRE financial system is on edge.
So, what do our current Fed Chair Jerome Powell do? He trashes the economy and the stock market in a speech.
Yesterday, Chair Powell spoke at the Economic Club of Chicago. Rather than soothing the markets by stating the Fed stands to act, he went DARK with his speech, stating that tariffs will have a negative impact on the economy, trigger an uptick in inflation, and potentially have a “larger than expected” impact. When asked if the Fed would intervene in stocks if they continued to collapse, he said, “No, with an exclamation.”
This is simply jaw dropping.
Again, the Fed’s job is to maintain financial stability. The entire financial system is on edge, and the Fed Chair is warning about an economic downturn, higher inflation, and saying that he doesn’t care if the stock market collapses.
I cannot remember ANY Fed official EVER being this bearish/ negative on things when the financial markets are on edge. And it begs the question, “is the Fed TRYING to crash the markets?”
We know the Fed hates Trump. You can literally feel the disdain in their public statements. But at this point it appears that senior Fed officials have taken things to the point of negligence.
A CENTRAL BANKER’S JOB IS TO PROMOTE STABILITY, NOT KICK THE MARKETS WHEN THEY’RE DOWN.
This is an extremely dangerous situation. The Fed basically just told investors, “you’re on your own with this mess.”
The odds of a stock market crash are now higher than at any point since the pandemic.
If you’ve not prepared for this, the time to do so is NOW before this unfolds.
Indeed, our proprietary Crash Trigger is now on red alert. This trigger went off before the 1987 Crash, the Tech Crash, and the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.
We detail this trigger, how it works, and what it’s saying about the market today in a Special Investment Report titled How to Predict a Crash.
Normally this report is only available to our paying clients, but in light of what’s happening in the markets today, we are making just 99 copies available to the general public.
The trade wars just claimed their first victim: Nvidia (NVDA).
NVDA is one of the most important companies in the stock market. The reason for this is that NVDA produces the chips/ Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) that the entire world is using to build out Artificial Intelligence (AI) platforms.
Because of this, NVDA has been a true market leader for most of the bull market begun in 2023. NVDA shares more than tripled in 2024. And at one point, NVDA was the largest company in the world based on market capitalization.
Last night, NVDA reported that it would take a $5.5 billion charge this quarter due to the U.S. restricting its exports of H20 AI chips to China. Roughly 20% of NVDA’s business comes from China, so this is not a small issue.
NVDA shares sold off hard in the after-hours.
NVDA is the first company to “take it on the chin” due to the tariffs/ trade wars, but it won’t be the last. The Trump administration’s chaotic rolling out of its policies has resulted in the stock market as a whole losing some $11 TRILLION in value since late January.
The technical damage to the markets has been severe, to the point that the S&P 500 has just triggered a MAJOR sell signal for the first time since the 2022 top. What followed was a year-long bear market that saw stocks lose over 20%.
If you’ve not prepared for this, the time to do so is NOW before this unfolds.
Indeed, our proprietary Crash Trigger is now on red alert. This trigger went off before the 1987 Crash, the Tech Crash, and the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.
We detail this trigger, how it works, and what it’s saying about the market today in a Special Investment Report titled How to Predict a Crash.
Normally this report is only available to our paying clients, but in light of what’s happening in the markets today, we are making just 99 copies available to the general public.
The Trump administration has a “messaging” problem.
Over the weekend, stocks erupted higher when it was announced that the U.S. would provide exemptions from new tariffs for phones, computers and chips from China. This meant that some of the most critical exports from China to the U.S. would only be charged 20% tariffs instead of the much higher tariff rate of 145% that the Trump administration had recently introduced.
Then, on Sunday, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick appeared on ABC to state that these exemptions would only be temporary as the Trump administration would soon be introducing “a special focus type of tariff” on those same items in the coming weeks.
Then, later that day, the President himself went on a tirade on Truth Social stating that there would be NO exemptions what-so-ever, and that “no one was getting off the hook
Bear in mind that the action taken by the White House on 4/11/25 LITERALLY stated that there would be “exemptions.”
So, what is it? Are some Chinese exports (chips, computers, phones) exempt from the new 145% tariffs or not? If they are exempt, does that mean that they will still be charged tariffs of 20% as originally introduced, or will there be zero tariffs? And what happens when the “special focus type of tariff” is introduced on these products in the coming weeks?
I have no idea. I don’t think anyone does. And this kind of bungled messaging is leading to a potential disaster for the stock market.
At the end of the day, stocks can digest a lot, but they absolutely HATE uncertainty. And this poor messaging, combined with all the uncertainty about how this will play out has resulted in the stock market triggering a RARE momentum “sell” signal.
The last time this signal went off was right before the bear market of 2022. At that time, stocks lost over 20% in a matter of months.
The lows are likely NOT in. The time to prepare for the next leg down is NOW before it hits.
Indeed, our proprietary Crash Trigger is now on red alert. This trigger went off before the 1987 Crash, the Tech Crash, and the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.
We detail this trigger, how it works, and what it’s saying about the market today in a Special Investment Report titled How to Predict a Crash.
Normally this report is only available to our paying clients, but in light of what’s happening in the markets today, we are making just 99 copies available to the general public.
