For over six years, the markets have been moving based on Central Banker actions and words.
The first phase (2009 to 2013) was dominated by action (ZIRP and QE).
The second phase (2013 to the present) was increasingly reliant on words (verbal intervention) as most Central Banks had by then used up 90% of their ammo.
As former Fed Chair Bernanke himself noted in his recent memoirs:
“Monetary policy is 98% talk and 2% action, especially when short term rates are near zero”
However, we are now reaching the point at which even actions AND words are losing their effect on the markets.
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On January 29 2016, the Bank of Japan introduced Negative Interest Rates or NIRP. The ensuing rally in the Nikkei lasted roughly 30 minutes before reversing all of its gains. It was only through concerted manipulation by the Bank of Japan that the Nikkei finished the day in the green.
Indeed, the rally was so weak that only three days later, the head of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda was already promising to engage in even more NIRP if needed. He stressed there was “no limit” to monetary easing measures.
Yes, this took place only a few days later.
So… the Bank of Japan launches NIRP for the first time in its history. And within THREE trading days is already promising to do MORE, going so far as to say that it has “no limit” on what it will try.
This is what it looks like when a Central Bank loses control= total desperation.
Bear in mind, the Bank of Japan has been at the forefront for ALL monetary policy for decades. The US Federal Reserve launched its first QE program in 2008. The European Central Bank launched its first QE program in 2015.
The Bank of Japan first launched QE back in 2001.
In short, the Bank of Japan has two decades of experience with QE AND ZIRP. It has launched the single largest QE program in history (an amount equal to over 20% of Japan’s GDP). And it has expanded its balance sheet to over 65% of Japan’s GDP.
In short, the Bank of Japan has gone “all in” to attempt to reflate its financial system. It has completely failed. And now it is so desperate that it is promising to do even MORE only three days after its latest monetary surprise.
The End Game for Central Banks has officially begun.
Another Crisis is coming. Smart investors are preparing now.
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