The Markets Are Misreading the Data

The US markets are in a quandary.

On the one hand, some of the data (GDP growth, unemployment, etc.) suggests the Fed should continue to hike rates. On the other hand, other data points (food stamp usage, labor participation rate) suggest the US never actually entered a real recovery.

More importantly, how can the jobs data suggest such a strong employment situation… when one in seven Americans are on food stamps?

Let us, consider how the Labor Department calculates the unemployment numbers… those same numbers that the ENTIRE stock market reacts to every few weeks.

Every month, the US Government conducts a “Current Population Survey” through which it calls or visits 60,000 US households and asks them questions about their current employment or lack thereof. This usually occurs on the week of the month containing the 12th.

———————————————————————–

The Single Best Options Trading Service on the Planet

Our options service THE CRISIS TRADER is absolutely KILLING it.

We have a success rate of 72% meaning we make money on more than seven out of 10 trades.

Even if you include ALL of our losers, we are up 25% year to date.

Over the same time period, the S&P 500 DOWN 8%.

That’s correct, with minimal risk, we are outperforming the S&P 500 by 33%... and the year only just started!

Our next goes out tomorrow morning… you can get it and THREE others for just 99 cents.

To take out a $0.99, 30 day trial subscription to THE CRISIS TRADER…

CLICK HERE NOW!!!

———————————————————————–

Thus, in order for the survey to be accurate…

1)   The US Government official has to make the phone call or go in person to the house (there have been some controversies regarding falsifying results).

2)   Someone has to pick up the phone or answer the door when the Government employee calls or visits.

3)   The person has to agree to an interview regarding the employment status of all members of his or her household with the US Government

4)   The person has to answer the interview questions truthfully (more on this shortly).

5)   The Labor Department’s economic model has to take this information and accurately render it into a nationwide unemployment number.

Thus, for the numbers to be accurate, the person being interviewed has to be willing to talk honestly to the US Government about personal details that could be quite embarassing.

Why is this a problem?

Consider that as far back as 2003, 30% of Americans viewed the US Government as an “immediate threat” to their “rights and freedoms.” Post 2008, the number has jumped to just below 50%.

Again, nearly half of Americans see the US Government as an “immediate threat.”

gallup

Thus, by proxy, roughly half of the people answering the phone or door for the Labor Department’s Current Population Survey have this view. What are the odds these individuals will be forthright and comfortable discussing the details of their family’s employment situation with a US Government official?

Even if the official is doing their absolute best to get correct information, the survey respondent might not be totally honest!

To top it off, there is debate as to what is the best means of interpreting the raw data. For instance, the Richmond Fed’s NEI measure (which measures those out of the labor force as well as those who are unemployed) puts current unemployment above 8% WAY above the “official” reading of 5.0%!!!

non_employ_index_latest_chart_small

Even after all of this, there are the revisions to consider… Heck, the Bureau of Economic Analysis revised three years worth of GDP growth data DOWN from 2.3% to 2.0% in July of last year.

For this reason and others, we believe that the recovery has been greatly overstated in the media and that the markets are primed for a collapse. Indeed, we’ve already taken out the bull market trendline dating back to the 2009 bottom.

sc

We fully believe this to be the case. And when this bubble bursts, it will trigger a crash that will make 2008 look like a picnic.

If you’re an investor who wants to increase your wealth dramatically, then you NEED to take out a trial subscription to our paid premium investment newsletter Private Wealth Advisory.

Private Wealth Advisory is a WEEKLY investment newsletter with an incredible track record.

Last week we closed three more winners including gains of 36%, 69% and a whopping 118% bringing us to 75 straight winning trades.

And throughout the last 14 months, we’ve not closed a SINGLE loser.

This track record is a getting a ton of attention, so we are going to be closing the doors on our current offer to explore Private Wealth Advisory at the end of this month.

So if you want to try Private Wealth Advisory for 30 days for just 98 cents, you need to get moving, because the clock is ticking and slots are quickly running out.

To lock in one of the remaining slots…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Phoenix Capital Research

Disclaimer: The information contained on this website is for marketing purposes only. Nothing contained in this website is intended to be, nor shall it be construed as, investment advice by Phoenix Capital Research or any of its affiliates, nor is it to be relied upon in making any investment or other decision. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed on this website constitutes and offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or participate in any particular trading strategy. The information in the newsletter is not a complete description of the securities, markets or developments discussed. Information and opinions regarding individual securities do not mean that a security is recommended or suitable for a particular investor. Prior to making any investment decision, you are advised to consult with your broker, investment advisor or other appropriate tax or financial professional to determine the suitability of any investment. 

Opinions and estimates expressed on this website constitute Phoenix Capital Research's judgment as of the date appearing on the opinion or estimate and are subject to change without notice. This information may not reflect events occurring after the date or time of publication. Phoenix Capital Research is not obligated to continue to offer information or opinions regarding any security, instrument or service. 

Information has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Phoenix Capital Research and its officers, directors, employees, agents and/or affiliates may have executed, or may in the future execute, transactions in any of the securities or derivatives of any securities discussed on this email. 

Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and is no guarantee of future results. Securities products are not FDIC insured, are not guaranteed by any bank and involve investment risk, including possible loss of entire value. Phoenix Capital Research, OmniSans Publishing LLC and Graham Summers shall not be responsible or have any liability for investment decisions based upon, or the results obtained from, the information provided. 

Phoenix Capital Research is not responsible for the content of other websites or emails to which this one may be linked and reserves the right to remove such links. OmniSans Publishing LLC and the Phoenix Capital Research Logo are registered trademarks of Phoenix Capital Research. Phoenix Capital Management, Inc.
What Happens When the Everything Bubble Bursts?
  • By trying to corner the bond market (risk-free rate)
  • the Fed has created a bubble in everything
  • We call this THE EVERYTHING BUBBLE
  • Reserve your copy of our Executive Summary
  • To prepare for what's coming down the pike!
Your contact information will never be rented or sold to anyone EVER.