The 2008 Crash was caused by the unregulated derivatives markets. And if you think that problem has been fixed, you’re mistaken.
Consider Deutsche Bank (DB).
DB sits atop the largest derivatives book in the world.
This one bank has over $75 trillion in derivatives on its balance sheet. This is over 20 times German GDP and roughly the same size as global GDP.
At this size, if even 0.01% of these derivatives are “at risk,” you’ve wiped ALL of the banks’ capital.
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The bank’s CEO was “very disappointed” when Moody’s recently downgraded its credit rating.
Personally, we’d be a lot more disappointed by the share price.
DB shares have gone effectively NOWHERE for nearly 20 years. Moreover, this might be the single largest Head and Shoulders topping pattern ever. As we write this, we’re right on the neckline.
DB is perhaps the best example of the derivatives problem, but it is by no means the only one. US banks alone have over $200 trillion in derivatives sitting on their balance sheets.
And over 77% of these derivatives are based on interest rates.
This comes to roughly $156 trillion in interest rate-based derivatives… sitting on the TBTF balance sheets.
If even 0.1% of this money is “at risk” it would wipe out 10% of the big banks equity. If 1% were “at risk” it would wipe out ALL of the big banks’ equity.
Suffice to say, the Fed cannot afford a spike in interest rates without imploding the big banks: the very banks it has funneled TRILLIONS of dollars to in an effort to prop up.
At some point this whole mess will come crashing down just as it did in 2008. The derivatives market remains a $600 TRILLION Ticking Time Bomb.
The time to prepare for this bubble to burst is now. Imagine if you’d prepared for the 2008 Crash back in late 2007? We did, and our clients made triple digit returns when the markets imploded.
We’re currently preparing for a similar situation today.
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This brings our winning trade streak to 81 straight winning trades.
Indeed, we haven’t closed a single loser since November 2014.
81 straight winners… and not one closed loser… in 18 months.
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Chief Market Strategist
Phoenix Capital Research
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