For months I’ve predicted we wouldn’t see QE 3. It’s now clear I was wrong. The Fed just announced QE 3. And while the implications of this will not be positive for the cost of living in the US, or ultimately the markets (inflation will eat away profit margins), the fact of the matter is that on this forecast I was totally and completely wrong.
With that in mind, I’m openly admitting that this call was 100% incorrect. Ditto for my predictions of the ECB’s moves. The ECB’s actions are of questionable value. However, the fact remains that the ECB is monetizing bonds or will at least try to (unless Germany stops them). So I was 100% wrong there too.
I gain nothing from pretending that I’m right when I’m not. And while I hate being wrong, I’m not going to ignore this fact and try to simply move on as though none of this has happened.
So I was wrong on these calls. Everyone’s wrong at some point. Right now, it’s my turn. And I’m admitting it in public, because I pride myself on being honest and upfront about my mistakes as an analyst.
So, with that out of the way, it’s time to re-assess where the markets are heading and what’s going on. I’ll have an email to all of you on this tomorrow.