The stock rally of the last few days has investors wondering if the bottom is in.
Unfortunately, it very likely is not.
High Yield bonds have lead stocks to the upside. They are now leading to the downside, and the High Yield bond market indicates we have further to fall. The stock rally looks out of place here.
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If this is not compelling enough consider that the microcap index, the Russell 2000, which leads the S&P 500 indicates stocks have a LONG ways to fall. Hard for stocks to rally against this divergence.
Finally, consider that the S&P 500 has broken its bull market trendline going back to 2009 AND cut through critical support (green line) on a monthly basis. A significant stock rally does not seem to be in the cards.
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